FI Morning Grain Comments 05/11/23

PDF attached

 

Good
morning. 

 

Under
the 24-hour reporting system, USDA reported private exporters sold 132,000 tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2023-24 marketing year.

 

Brazil
Conab raised their production estimates for soybeans and corn, although both below expectations. Consumer prices in China rose 0.1% in April, the slowest rate in two years 
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/11/china-cpi-ppi-april-inflation.html  
US dollar is up 40, WTI lower by $1.03, and US equities mixed. US grains and soybean complex are lower on the same fundamentals talked about this week (good weather, Black Sea grain deal, talk of large US production). The drop in prices has attracted fresh
import tender announcements. The Turkish defense ministry mentioned the negotiations over the Black Sea grain-deal have been so far constructive.

 

Rain
will fall across West Texas through the weekend, improving topsoil moisture but don’t discount local flooding. The northern US Plains will trend wetter through the weekend. The central US Great Plains will see net drying to some light rain. Weather is favorable
for much of the Midwest, but a couple light frost events may occur bias north over the next week. Brazil will remain dry over the next 10-14 days. Europe will experience heavy rain and flooding during the coming week from Italy into the eastern Adriatic Sea
region.

 

 

 

Fund
estimates as of May 10

 

November
soybeans/December corn

 

Weather

The
US CPC sees a 90 percent change for El Nino persisting into winter after a neutral transition overt the next couple of months.

 

 

 

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR MAY 11, 2023

• Argentina
  will trend a little wetter late next week and into the following weekend
• No
  changes in Brazil’s drier bias was noted, although Rio Grande do Sul may also experience a boost in rain late next week
• West
  Texas rainfall is still expected to be significant enough this weekend and next week for an improvement in planting conditions
  
• Moderate
  to locally heavy rain in eastern Montana and the western Dakotas as well as southeastern Saskatchewan and southwestern Manitoba tonight through Sunday will bolster soil moisture in some areas that are still drier than usual
• Relief
  from dryness is also expected in eastern South Dakota and southern Minnesota with southwestern Minnesota already reporting some rainfall over 1.00 inch in the past 24 hours
• Eastern
  U.S. Midwest and southeastern states will receive periodic rain of light intensity that will prove to be ideal for allowing more fieldwork to occur while maintaining a favorable moisture profile in the soil
• Parts
  of Central Texas will experience flooding rain this weekend with the wet bias prevailing into next week
  
• Northeastern
  Colorado, northwestern Kansas and southwestern Nebraska received significant rain overnight and more is expected that may eventually lead to a dramatic improvement in soil moisture with local flooding possible for a brief period of time
• South-central
  Europe is still expected to be a little too wet in the coming week
• Northern
  Africa is a little wetter in today’s forecast relative to that of Wednesday, although the moisture increase may come too late for a serious improvement in durum wheat production
• Most
  of the western CIS, China, India, South Africa and Australia weather outlooks changed little overnight