FI Morning Grain Comments 05/07/21

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

Statistics
Canada released March 31 stocks and the data was a little friendly.  This morning most agriculture futures markets across the world are higher on same news and strong demand.  

 

Private
exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture the follow activity:

Export
sales of 1,360,000 metric tons of corn
for delivery to China during the 2021/2022 marketing year; and

Export
sales of 188,468 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destination. Of the total, 86,868 metric tons is for delivery during the 2020/2021 marketing year and 101,600 metric tons is for delivery during the 2021/2022 marketing year.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weather

 

 

Next
7 days

 

World
Weather, Inc.

Rain
and snow will fall across Alberta and southwestern Saskatchewan, Canada and from Montana into southwestern North Dakota and central and western South Dakota this weekend. Areas to the east in the Prairies of Canada and the upper U.S. Midwest will be dry for
at least a week and perhaps 8-9 days. This includes northern Iowa. In the meantime, plenty of moisture is expected in the lower Midwest, Delta and southeastern states, Europe and southern China with both western Russia and parts of southern China too wet.
Safrinha corn areas of Brazil remain in a dry mode.

Source:
World Weather, Inc.

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Friday,
May 7:

• China
  customs publishes trade data, including imports of soy, edible oils, meat and rubber
• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• CNGOIC
  monthly report on Chinese grains & oilseeds
• Canada’s
  StatsCan to issue wheat, canola, barley and durum stockpile data
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions

Monday,
May 10:

• Malaysian
  Palm Oil Board data on April stockpiles, output, exports, 12:30pm local
• Malaysia
  May 1-10 palm oil export data
• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• Ivory
  Coast cocoa arrivals
• USDA
  export inspections – corn, soy and wheat, 11am
• U.S.
  crop plantings – corn, wheat, cotton; winter wheat condition, 4pm
• HOLIDAY:
  Russia

Tuesday,
May 11:

• Agrana
  full-year earnings
• France
  agriculture ministry monthly crops outlook

Wednesday,
May 12:

• China
  farm ministry’s CASDE outlook report
• FranceAgriMer
  monthly grains report
• USDA’s
  monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand (WASDE) report, 12pm
• EIA
  weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production
• Conab’s
  data on yield, area and output of corn and soybeans in Brazil
• Brazil’s
  Unica data on cane crush and sugar output (tentative)

Thursday,
May 13:

• New
  Zealand April food prices, 10:45am local
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• USDA
  net-export sales for corn, soy, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
• HOLIDAY:
  Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, India, Dubai, France, Germany

Friday,
May 14:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 6:30pm London
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• HOLIDAY:
  Indonesia, Malaysia, Dubai

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

StatsCan
released March 31 stocks
and some of the main commodity inventories fell slightly below expectations. 

 

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3210000701

 

Macro

US
Change In Nonfarm Payrolls Apr: 266K (est 1000K; prevR 770K; prev 916K)

US
Unemployment Rate Apr: 6.1% (est 5.8%; prev 6.0%)

US
Average Hourly Earnings (M/M) Apr: 0.7% (est 0.0%; prevR -0.1%; prev -0.1%)

US
Average Hourly Earnings (Y/Y) Apr: 0.3% (est -0.4%; prev 4.2%)

US
Change In Private Payrolls Apr: 218K (est 933K; prevR 708K; prev 780K)

US
Change In Manufacturing Payrolls Apr: -18K (est 54K; prevR 54K; prev 53K)

US
Average Weekly Hours All Employees Apr: 35.0 (est 34.9; prev 34.9)

US
Labour Force Participation Rate Apr: 61.7% (est 61.6%; prev 61.5%)

US
Underemployment Rate Apr: 10.4% (prev 10.7%)

Canadian
Net Change In Employment Apr: -207.1K (est -150.0K; prev 303.1K)

Canadian
Unemployment Rate Apr: 8.1% (est 8.0%; prev 7.5%)

Canadian
Participation Rate Apr: 64.9% (est 65.2%; prev 65.2%)

Canadian
Part Time Employment Change Apr: -77.8K (prev 127.8K)

Canadian
Full Time Employment Change Apr: -129.4K (prev 175.4K)

Canadian
Hourly Wage Rate Permanent Employees (Y/Y) Apr: -1.6% (est -1.1%; prev 2.0%)

 

 

Corn

• CBOT
  corn
  is higher on follow through bullish momentum and strong meat imports by China for the month of April.  China imported 922,000 tons of meat during April, up nearly 7 percent from year ago and slightly below the record 1.02 million tons during March.
  
• China
  National Grain & Oils Information Center (CNGOIC) estimated 2020 China corn production up 4.3% to 272 million tons and soybean production at 18.4 million tons, a 6.1% decrease from 2020. 
  
• FranceAgriMer
  reported conditions of the French winter barley edged down to 76% from 77%, and corn plantings were 89% of the expected area, up from 74% the previous week and 76% a year ago.
• The
  USD was down about 48 points at 7:50 am CT. 

 

Export
developments.

• None
  reported  

 

Soybeans

• The
  CBOT soybean complex is higher again with demand and stocks in focus this morning. 
  
• StatsCan
  reported March 31 Canadian canola stocks down 38 percent from the same period a year ago. 
  
• Details
  over China April import data continues to trickle out, with records set.  China imported 922,000 tons of meat during April, up nearly 7 percent from year ago and slightly below the record 1.02 million tons during March. China soybean imports were 7.45 million
  tons during April, up 11 percent year ago, with most originating from Brazil.  Jan-Apr China soybean imports were 28.63 million tons, up 17% from same period during 2020. 
  
• Malaysian
  palm oil futures closed at a 13-year high, up 212 MRY and cash was up 4.2% or 45.00$/ton to $1,112.50.  For the week palm futures are up 14.4%. 
  
• July
  ICE canola futures rose its daily limit yesterday and its up more than $20/ton at around $983.80.  Limits expanded to 45. 
  
• July
  ICE canola futures rose its daily limit yesterday and its up more than $20/ton at around $983.80.  Limits expanded to 45.
• Malaysian
  palm oil futures closed at a 13-year high, up 212 MRY and cash was up 4.2% or 45.00$/ton to $1,112.50.  For the week palm futures are up 14.4%. 
  
• Offshore
  values were leading CBOT SBO 40 points higher (8 lower for the week to date) and meal $2.90 short ton higher ($11.70 higher for the week)
• Rotterdam
  vegetable oil values were unchanged to about 15 euros higher and Rotterdam meal mostly 3-8 euros higher. 
  
• China
  cash crush margins on our analysis were 214 cents (215 previous) vs. 178 cents late last week and compares to 132 cents year earlier. 
  
• China:
  

• Malaysian
  palm oil: (uses settle price).
  

 

Export
Developments

• None
  reported

 

MPOB
SND poll April – Reuters Poll

April
stocks seen down 0.27% m/m at 1.44 mln T

Output
seen up 8.9% at 1.55 mln T – survey

Exports
seen up 10% at 1.3 mln T – survey

 

Wheat

• Higher
  trade in US wheat futures, outpacing corn for a change, despite Thailand passing on wheat and barley. 
  
• FranceAgriMer
  reported a 2-point decline in French soft wheat conditions to 79% for the week ending May 3.
• IKAR
  lowered their 2021 Russian wheat production forecast to 79 million tons from 79.5 million tons.
  
• September
  Paris wheat was up 1.50 euros to 231.75 as of around 7:40 am CT.

 

Export
Developments.

• Thailand
  passed on 455,000 tons of animal feed wheat and 420,000 tons of feed barley for shipment between June and December.  The barley was to be sourced from Australia only for shipments between June and December.
• Taiwan
  Flour Millers’ Association seeks 89,425 tons US milling wheat on May 13.  One consignment of 42,505 tons is sought for shipment between July 2 and July 16. A second consignment of 46,920 tons is sought for shipment between July 19 and Aug. 2.

 

Rice/Other

·        
South Korea’s Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp seeks 134,994 tons of rice from Vietnam, China, the United States and Australia, on May 13, for arrival between September 2021 and January 2022.