PDF attached

 

Good
morning
.

 

Higher
trade on Brazil crop concerns, lower USD, and follow through buying. US planting was very good last week.  

 

Reminder:

CME
is resetting price limits for grain, soybean complex and lumber futures on May 2. For example, corn to 40 cents, soybeans to 1.00, wheat to 45. 
https://www.cmegroup.com/content/dam/cmegroup/notices/ser/2021/04/SER-8761.pdf

 

CME
Margin changes:

RAISES
SOYBEAN FUTURES (S) MAINTENANCE MARGINS BY 7.2% TO $4,100 PER CONTRACT FROM $3,825 FOR MAY 2021

SAYS
INITIAL MARGIN RATES ARE 110% OF MAINTENANCE MARGIN RATES

SAYS
RATES WILL BE EFFECTIVE AFTER THE CLOSE OF BUSINESS ON APRIL 30, 2021

 

 

Weather

 

Next
7 days

Map

Description automatically generated

 

World
Weather, Inc.

MARKET
WEATHER MENTALITY FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS:  U.S. Planting weather should be mostly good, but there will be a higher level of frequency for rain in the lower Midwest and some returning wet weather to the Delta. These areas will need some drier weather soon. The
lower Midwest has likely had better planting conditions than the Delta in recent weeks.

            A
good mix of weather is expected in the southeastern U.S. over the next two weeks. The upper Midwest, however, may continue to experience less than usual precipitation for a while. Iowa rainfall tonight and Monday will be very helpful in easing dryness, but
more will be needed after extreme temperatures during the weekend accelerated drying in the state.

            Brazil
Safrinha corn areas will continue to dry down raising crop stress over time. Portions of Mato Grosso will experience the best weather while temperatures in some southern corn areas may be mild enough to keep drying rates and crop stress a little lower.

            Argentina
and South Africa late season crops are expected to continue performing well with some harvest progress occurring between rain events.

            Rain
in Western Australia this week will help improve canola planting conditions. Similarly rain in Western Europe will improve soil moisture for both winter and spring oilseeds and early season corn planting.

            Some
planting will begin soon in southern Russia and Ukraine while planting is expected to expand across east-central China and the North China Plain over the next two weeks. India’s harvest is progressing well.

            Overall,
weather today will likely provide a mixed influence on market mentality.

 

 

MARKET
WEATHER MENTALITY FOR WHEAT AND OTHER SMALL GRAINS:  Western Australia rainfall this week will improve planting moisture. Drying in the North China Plain will dry down the soil raising need for rain in unirrigated production areas later this month.

            India’s
harvest is advancing well with little change likely in crop conditions, despite a few showers periodically.

            Europe’s
greater rainfall in the west-central and north will help replenish soil moisture for improved winter crop development and spring planting. Additional warming is needed in some areas, although southeastern Europe turned much warmer during the weekend.

           
Canada’s Prairies may get a little moisture boost this coming week and into next week, but confidence is low on the significance of the moisture expected. A more generalized precipitation is needed to more significantly change field conditions and soil moisture.
Concern about Canada and parts of the northern Plains will continue for a while, despite some computer forecasts suggesting greater rain.

            South
Africa early planting conditions will be good. Southern Brazil wheat conditions should be good as well.

            U.S.
hard red winter wheat areas will see a favorable mix of weather, although the southwestern Plains will struggle for significant moisture.  The U.S. Pacific Northwest will also stay rather dry, but irrigated fields have plenty of water supply to support the
region’s crop needs. Some rain will evolve in the northern Plains during the weekend into next week and that will be welcome, although it is unclear how significant that may be.

            Overall,
weather may contribute a mixed influence on market mentality.

Source:
World Weather, Inc.

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Monday,
May 3:

  • USDA
    export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
  • U.S.
    crop plantings – corn, wheat, cotton; winter wheat condition, 4pm
  • EU
    weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
  • U.S.
    corn for ethanol, soybean crush, DDGS production, 3pm
  • Honduras,
    Costa Rica monthly coffee exports
  • International
    Cotton Advisory Committee updates world supply and demand outlook
  • Australia
    Commodity Index
  • Ivory
    Coast cocoa arrivals
  • HOLIDAY:
    U.K., Japan, China, Vietnam, Thailand

Tuesday,
May 4:

  • Purdue
    Agriculture Sentiment
  • New
    Zealand global dairy trade auction
  • EARNINGS:
    Bunge, Andersons, Minerva
  • HOLIDAY:
    Japan, China, Thailand

Wednesday,
May 5:

  • EIA
    weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production
  • Malaysia
    May 1-5 palm oil export data
  • New
    Zealand Commodity Price
  • HOLIDAY:
    Japan, China

Thursday,
May 6:

  • FAO
    World Food Price Index
  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports

Friday,
May 7:

  • China
    customs publishes trade data, including imports of soy, edible oils, meat and rubber
  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • CNGOIC
    monthly report on Chinese grains & oilseeds
  • Canada’s
    Statcan to issue wheat, canola, barley and durum stockpile data
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

DELIVERIES