FI Morning Grain Comments 05/02/23

PDF attached

 

Good
morning. 

 

USD
was higher, WTI crude oil mostly lower and US equities lower. Light buying is seen for soybeans and soybean oil. Meal traded two-sided and corn was mixed. US wheat traded two-sided and are currently mostly lower after US winter wheat ratings improved from
the previous week. The combined G/E categories were up two points to 28 percent. US corn plantings were 26 percent, one point below expectations. With a quarter of the corn crop in the ground, look for the trade to focus more on germination and development
this month. Soybean plantings were 19 percent, 2 points above expectations. Jordan bought 60,000 tons of wheat at $288.50/ton c&f for FH October shipment. Egypt’s lowest offer for wheat was $260/ton fob, Russian origin. Look for Black Sea headlines to move
the grain markets this week as the expiration of the deal is a about a week away. Don’t discount additional US corn cancelations by China later this week.

 

 

 

Fund
estimates as of May 1

 

Weather

 

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR MAY 1, 2023

• Eastern
  U.S. Midwest precipitation is expected to be lighter than usual for a while
• Rain
  is expected to evolve in the U.S. southern Plains especially this weekend and next week that will raise soil moisture for cotton, sorghum and corn east of the High Plains
• West
  Texas rainfall is still expected to be sporadic and light over the next couple of weeks
• Greater
  rainfall is expected again this weekend into early next week across the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota to Manitoba, Canada that will maintain wet field conditions
• Warming
  in Canada’s Prairies and the northern U.S. will be good for a few days of net drying, but rain will fall soon thereafter slowing fieldwork
• Drought
  relief is still not very likely in Alberta of western Saskatchewan, Canada
• U.S.
  hard red winter wheat areas will continue to receive sporadic rainfall for the next ten days, although every drop of rain will be welcome
• Spain,
  Portugal and northwestern Africa are still expected to be dry or mostly dry in the coming week
• Kazakhstan
  and southern parts of Russia’s eastern New Lands will remain dry for another week with temperatures near to above normal
• Western
  Australia rain potentials are improving for this weekend and next week and that should lead to better planting and emergence conditions for wheat, barley and canola
• India
  will remain wetter biased into the weekend, although daily rainfall should not be as disruptive to farming activity as it was during the weekend; some concern over unharvested winter crop conditions will prevail
• Brazil’s
  center south and center west crop areas will continue to dry down seasonably through the next couple of weeks, although Safrinha crops will remain in good condition
• Argentina
  rainfall will continue limited over the next ten days
• Positive
  Indian Ocean Dipole is expected to evolve over the next few weeks

Source:
World Weather, INC.

 

Bloomberg
Ag calendar

Tuesday,
May 2:

• US
  Purdue Agriculture Sentiment
• Malaysia’s
  April 1-30 palm oil exports
• New
  Zealand global dairy trade auction
• HOLIDAY:
  China,
  Vietnam

Wednesday,
May 3:

• EIA
  weekly US ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• HOLIDAY:
  China,
  Japan, Vietnam

Thursday,
May 4:

• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports