FI Morning Grain Comments 04/22/22

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

USDA:
Private exporters reported the following activity:

-1,347,000
metric tons of corn for delivery to China. 
Of the total, 735,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2021/2022 marketing year and 612,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2022/2023 marketing year

-281,000
metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico. 
Of the total, 90,200 metric tons is for delivery during the 2021/2022 marketing year and 190,800 metric tons is for delivery during the 2022/2023 marketing year

-144,000
metric tons of soybeans for delivery to Mexico. 
Of the total, 48,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2021/2022 marketing year and 96,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2022/2023 marketing year

 

The
big corn sales to China is friendly for futures. Around 5:30 am CT, Reuters released a headline that Indonesia’s president announced they plan to ban exports of cooking oil and its raw material from April 28. Soybean oil rallied.  The USD was up 31 points
and WTI crude oil off about $1.69 at the time this was written. Soybeans
are higher following SBO and meal lower. CBOT corn is higher on technical buying and Black Sea production concerns. UCAB estimates Ukraine’s 2022 corn area could shrink 31 percent from last year at around 3.8 million hectares. US wheat is mostly higher.
Chicago
is lagging KC and MN. Improving weather for the upper Great Plains and eastern TX/OK may limit gains.

 

 

 

 

Weather

 

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR APRIL 22, 2022

• Hot
  and windy conditions will occur in the central and southern Plains today with high temperatures in the 90s Fahrenheit and a few extremes near 100
• Thunderstorms
  will pop up  in the high Plains region from western Texas cotton areas to southwestern and south-central Nebraska this evening and overnight tonight
  
• A
  few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible and localized areas of significant rain may result
• most
  of the precipitation will be too like and sporadic to seriously change drought conditions in western hard red winter wheat areas or West Texas
• Other
  bouts of sporadic showers may occur later in the two week forecast, but the result will be similar leaving western hard red winter wheat areas without a serious boost in soil moisture and drought will prevail
• Northern
  U.S. Plains and southeastern Canada Prairies will be impacted by substantial snow and rainfall later today into Sunday causing a shut down in travel from northeastern Wyoming to central 
• Less
  frequent and less significant rain will impact the lower Delta, Tennessee River Basin and southeastern U.S. during the next couple of weeks allowing accelerated planting and field progress to take place
• California’s
  Sierra Nevada Mountains are advertised to get less rain in today’s outlook than advertised previously 
• Mato
  Grosso do Sul, Brazil will receive rain tonight and Saturday with 0.30 to 1.00 inch and a few 1.50-inch amounts resulting
  
• the
  moisture will maintain a good outlook for the state’s Safrinha crops
• Some
  rain will also impact Mato Grosso, Brazil this weekend with 0.10 to 0.50 inch and a little more in the far south
  
• the
  moisture will only provide a brief set back in the drying trend and the following ten days will be dry again
• Western
  Argentina will need greater rain in May to support winter crops planting, but conditions now are good for most farming needs in the entire nation
• Europe
  will be wet from southwest to east-central parts of the continent over the coming week to ten days slowing fieldwork at times, but progress will be made
• favorable
  weather is expected to continue in most of India, the western CIS and China
• Eastern
  Australia will turn wetter next week delaying cotton and sorghum harvesting and raising a little concern over cotton fiber quality

Source:
World Weather Inc.

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Friday,
April 22:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• First
  quarter cocoa grinding data from Cocoa Association of Asia
• Brazil’s
  Unica may release cane crush and sugar output data (tentative)
• U.S.
  cattle on feed; cold storage data for pork, beef and poultry, 3pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions

Monday,
April 25:

• USDA
  export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
• U.S.
  crop progress and planting data for corn and cotton; spring wheat progress, 4pm
• Malaysia’s
  April 1-25 palm oil export data
• U.S.
  poultry slaughter, 3pm
• Ivory
  Coast cocoa arrivals
• HOLIDAY:
  Australia, New Zealand, Egypt

Tuesday,
April 26:

• Statistics
  Canada publishes report on seeded area for wheat, barley and canola
• MARS
  monthly report on EU crop conditions
• Geneva
  Sugar Conference, day 1
• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• EARNINGS:
  ADM

Wednesday,
April 27:

• EIA
  weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• Geneva
  Sugar Conference, day 2
• EARNINGS:
  Bunge, Pilgrim’s Pride

Thursday,
April 28:

• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• Brazil’s
  Conab releases production numbers for sugar, cane and ethanol (tentative)

Friday,
April 29:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• Vietnam’s
  General Statistics Office releases coffee, rice and rubber export data
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• U.S.
  agricultural prices paid, received, 3pm
• HOLIDAY:
  Japan, Indonesia

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

Due
out April 26

 

 

Macros

 

Canadian
Retail Sales (M/M) Feb: 0.1% (est -0.5%; prev 3.2%; prevR 3.3%)

Canadian
Retail Sales Ex Auto (M/M) Feb: 2.1% (est 0.4%; prev 2.5%; prevR 2.9%)

Canadian
PPI (M/M) Mar: 4.0% (prev 3.1%; prevR 2.6%)

Canadian
PPI (Y/Y) Mar: 18.5% (prev 16.4%; prevR 15.8%)

Canadian
Industrial Product Price (M/M) Mar: 4.0% (est 2.1%; prev 3.1%; prevR 2.6%)

 

Corn

·        
CBOT corn is higher on technical buying and Black Sea production concerns.

·        
WTI crude oil (China lockdown concerns) is lower.

·        
US corn planting progress should start to improve this weekend and significantly increase early May. 

·        
UCAB estimates Ukraine’s 2022 corn area could shrink 31 percent from last year at around 3.8 million hectares. Ukraine’s AgMin announced spring grain plantings are about 21 percent complete, or 1.54 million hectares. The AgMin
looks for summer plantings to drop 20 percent from 2021.

·        
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported 18% of the Argentina corn crop was rated good or excellent, down from 20% last week.

·        
Bulgaria reported an outbreak of bird flu on a laying hens farm in the southern part of the country.

 

EIA
RIN update:

U.S.
GENERATED 490 MLN BIODIESEL (D4) BLENDING CREDITS IN MARCH, VS 396 MLN IN FEBRUARY -EPA

U.S.
GENERATED 1.27 BLN ETHANOL (D6) BLENDING CREDITS IN MARCH, VS 1.07 BLN IN FEBRUARY -EPA

Year
ago D4 biodiesel 406 and D6 ethanol 1.19 billion

 

What
Do We Know About How Long It Takes to Plant the U.S. Corn Crop?

Irwin,
S. “What Do We Know About How Long It Takes to Plant the U.S. Corn Crop?.”
farmdoc
daily
(12):54,  Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, April 21, 2022.

https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2022/04/what-do-we-know-about-how-long-it-takes-to-plant-the-us-corn-crop.html

 

Export
developments.

·        
USDA: Private exporters reported the following activity:

-1,347,000
metric tons of corn for delivery to China.  Of the total, 735,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2021/2022 marketing year and 612,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2022/2023 marketing year

-281,000
metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico.  Of the total, 90,200 metric tons is for delivery during the 2021/2022 marketing year and 190,800 metric tons is for delivery during the 2022/2023 marketing year

-144,000
metric tons of soybeans for delivery to Mexico.  Of the total, 48,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2021/2022 marketing year and 96,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2022/2023 marketing year

 

 

Soybeans

·        
Soybeans are higher following soybean oil, as the number one palm oil exporter announced a ban on exports. Meal is lower on product spreading. Around 5:30 am CT, Reuters released a headline that Indonesia’s president announced
they plan to ban exports of cooking oil and its raw material from April 28. Soybean oil rallied more than 200 points. Look for a choppy trade in soybean oil. Indonesia aims to fight domestic food inflation. This is the second time this year Indonesia has announced
a plan to curb exports. In January Indonesia set a domestic price cap and restricted export volumes, then lifted it in March. This latest announcement comes a day after Indonesia set its May crude palm oil export reference price at $1,657.39 a ton, below April’s
$1,787.5 per ton.

·        
July soybean oil share

·        
APK-Inform mentioned Ukraine could export 745,000 tons of sunflower oil to Europe for the rest of the 2021-22 season (Sep-Aug), delivered by train.

·        
On Friday Malaysia set its May crude palm oil export tax at 8%, unchanged from April, based on a reference price at 6,759.22 ringgit ($1,564.63) a ton, up from 5,925.33 ringgit a ton for April.

·        
Malaysia palm futures trended higher by 78MYR and cash was up $15.00/ton at $1,605/ton.

·        
For the week Malaysian palm oil fell 1.8 percent.

·        
China soybean futures were down 0.7 percent, soybean meal off 0.1%, SBO up 0.3%, and palm oil down slightly.

·        
Rotterdam vegetable oils were 10-15 euros higher and meal (imported from SA) lower by 6-9 euros.

·        
Offshore values are leading soybean oil 86 points lower (45 lower for the week to date) and meal $4.40 lower ($5.80 lower for the week).

·        
CBOT limits https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/price-limits.html

 

Export
Developments

·        
China looks to auction off another 500,000 tons of soybeans April 29. This week they may have sold about 80 percent of the 500,000 tons offered. For some reason, the government has not been releasing official soybean auction data. 

 

 

Wheat

·        
US wheat paired
earlier losses and traded higher from a rally in soybeans and corn. Chicago is lagging KC and MN. Russia will increase its wheat export duty by $8.50/ton for the April 25-May 5 period.

·        
Improving weather for the upper Great Plains and eastern TX/OK should limit gains.

·        
The Rosario grains exchange warned Argentina wheat production could drop 25 percent for the 2022-23 season for the central growing region due to dry weather and increasing input/labor costs. La Nina was cited.

·        
The French AgMin estimated 91 percent of the soft wheat crop was in good or excellent condition for the week ending April 18, down one point from the previous week and compares to 85 percent year ago.

·        
IKAR estimates Russia’s 2022 wheat crop at 83.5 million tons from 83 million previously. This compares to a SovEcon estimate of a record 2022 Russian wheat crop of 87.4 million tons. Russia harvested 76.0 million tons of wheat
in 2021.

·        
Russia set the April 24-May 5 wheat export tax at $119.10 per ton, up from $110.70 per ton previous week.

·        
September EU wheat futures were 6.50 euros higher at 363 euros.

·        
We tentatively estimate May USDA winter wheat production at 1.335 billion bushels, up 58 million from 2021.

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Morocco recently bought 136,260 tons of soft wheat for storage.

·        
Russia delivered nearly 20,000 tons of wheat to Cuba.

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of feed barley on April 26 for Aug and/or Sep shipment.

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of wheat. on April 27 for Jun and/or Aug shipment.

 

Rice/Other

·        
None reported