FI Morning Grain Comments 04/12/21

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

WASHINGTON,
April 12, 2021—Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture the follow activity:

Export
sales of 132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2021/2022 marketing year; and

Export
sales of 110,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to Bangladesh.  Of the total, 55,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2020/2021 marketing year and 55,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2021/2022 marketing year.

 

Mostly
lower start to the week with weather and MPOB palm oil data in focus. Later we will see USDA export inspections, and US crop progress after the close.  

 

 

 

Weather

 

 

7-day

 

 

 

 

World
Weather Inc.

MARKET
WEATHER MENTALITY FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS:  Some relief to dryness in Brazil this weekend into next week will offer a little hope of timely rainfall that may help support reproducing and filling winter crops as they run out of soil moisture from drying that
will continue into Friday. A general soaking is not likely, but if showers occur frequently into late month it might provide some support for reproduction.

            Argentina
wet weather late last week disrupted farming activity and saturated the soil in some areas as well as inducing local flooding in central Santa Fe. Improving conditions this week will be good, but more rain during the weekend and next week may set back fieldwork
once again.

            U.S.
planting moisture still looks good, although cool temperatures during the next couple of weeks may slow fieldwork and germination as well as emergence. Warmer temperatures with periodic rain are needed for the best scenario. Iowa will be closely monitored
for developing dryness, although it is not too dry today.

            Recent
moisture in the upper Midwest and southeastern Canada’s Prairies will improve the planting outlook for late this month and especially in May if there is follow up rain. Temperatures will be cool this week limiting any thought of fieldwork for a while.

            Southeast
Asia Palm Oil conditions will remain good during the next ten days as will be winter rapeseed in Western Europe, China and India. South Africa summer crops will remain in good condition as well.

            Overall,
weather today will likely produce a mixed influence on market mentality with a bearish bias.

 

MARKET
WEATHER MENTALITY FOR WHEAT AND OTHER SMALL GRAINS:  Portions of North Dakota, Saskatchewan and Manitoba will get welcome moisture this week easing long term dryness, although more moisture will be needed. Areas in the southwestern Canada Prairies and the
northwestern U.S. Plains will continue too dry and waiting for significant rain.

            Dryness
remains a concern for unirrigated winter crops from central Washington through Oregon and no relief is expected for the coming ten days.

            U.S.
hard red winter wheat areas will receive significant rain Wednesday into Friday of this week, although the far southwest may not get a large amount of moisture. The precipitation will bring some needed relief after recent net drying and crop conditions will
respond positively reinforcing good yield potentials. Additional timely rain must continue through the spring, however.

            China
winter wheat conditions remain very good with a positive outlook, despite net drying over the next ten days. India’s wheat is being harvesting with little reason for lasting disruptions because of rain. North Africa still has need for greater rain in southwestern
Morocco and northwestern Algeria and parts of Tunisia are starting to dry down as well.

            Europe
weekend precipitation was good in the west where France and Spain both received needed rain. Other areas in Europe that have been drying out will get some moisture over the coming week. Warming is needed, though, across the continent.

            Warming
in the western CIS this week will be short-lived, but will melt snow and warm topsoil temperatures for future crop development. Some greening is already under way in Russia’s Southern Region and parts of Ukraine.

            Australia’s
winter crop planting outlook is favorable and Tropical Cyclone Seroja is bringing a welcome boost to topsoil moisture today in the far west.

            Overall,
weather today may have a bearish bias to market mentality.

Source:
World Weather inc.

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Monday,
April 12:

• USDA
  export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
• U.S.
  crop plantings – corn, wheat, cotton, 4pm
• Malaysian
  Palm Oil Board data on March end-stocks, output, exports
• Malaysia’s
  April 1-10 palm oil export data from SGS
• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• Ivory
  Coast cocoa arrivals

Tuesday,
April 13:

• China
  customs to publish trade data, including imports of soy, edible oils, meat and rubber
• France’s
  agriculture ministry updates on 2021 crop plantings
• Malaysian
  Cocoa Board releases 1Q 2021 cocoa grinding numbers
• HOLIDAY:
  Thailand

Wednesday,
April 14:

• EIA
  weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production
• Unica’s
  data on cane crush and sugar production in Brazil’s center-south region (tentative)
• FranceAgriMer
  monthly grains report
• European
  Cocoa Association’s quarterly grind data (tentative)
• HOLIDAY:
  India, Bangladesh, Thailand

Thursday,
April 15:

• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
• Malaysia’s
  April 1-15 palm oil export data
• The
  U.S. National Confectionery Association releases first quarter cocoa grinding data for North America
• USDA
  updates monthly North American sugar and sweeteners outlook
• White
  sugar May contract expires
• New
  Zealand food prices
• HOLIDAY:
  Thailand

Friday,
April 16:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• Cocoa
  Association of Asia releases 1Q 2021 cocoa grinding data
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CFTC
Commitment of Traders

 

 

 

 

 

 

Macro

Canada
Adjusted Inflation At 1.5% In February (prev 1.1% Non-Adjusted) – StatsCan

 

Corn

• CBOT
  corn was
  unchanged to higher on US planting delay concerns for the Delta and lower Midwest after weekend rains stalled fieldwork progress and tight US supplies as indicated by USDA late last week.  Additional rains and cool temperatures this week are expected to continue
  to slow fieldwork progress.
• Rains
  will occur across Brazil’s northern Mato Grosso this week. Central Parana and western RGDS will see light rain. 
  
• Today
  is day three of the “Goldman Roll.”
• Funds
  on Friday bought an estimated net 4,000 corn contracts.

 

Export
developments.

• None
  reported

 

Soybeans

• CBOT
  soybeans are
  sharply lower with the May contract breaking below its 50-day MA of $14.11/bu. Soybean oil is lower on weakness in palm oil and talk of Brazil cutting back on biodiesel blending.  We think this will be short lived until Brazil crushers get more access to soybeans,
  but domestic prices need to ease.  Malaysian June palm oil ended up falling 3 percent to a one week low after MPOB reported higher than expected end of March palm oil stocks. Cash fell around 2.7% to $940/ton. Soybean meal is on the defensive but losses are
  limited on product spreading. 
• AgRural
  reported the Brazil soybean harvest at 85% complete as of April 8 compared to 78% a week earlier and 89% a year earlier.  Soybean production is seen at 133 million tons.
  
• Brazil
  will temporarily reduce biodiesel blending requirements for diesel fuel to 10% from 13%.  About 70% of Brazil’s biodiesel is produced from soybean oil.  Biodiesel prices are up sharply in part to rising domestic soybean prices that are available for crushers. 
  The government may restore the 13 percent mandate as soon as more soybeans become available to crushers. 
  
• On
  Thursday we will get a March US NOPA crush estimate and we look for the daily rate to rebound from the weather impacted February figure. 
  
• There
  were no changes to CBOT registrations. 
• Safras
  & Mercado estimates Brazil soybean producers sold 14 percent of their upcoming 2022 crop.  The crop will not be planted until later this year.  For this year, a separate group, Datagro, estimates Brazil farmers sold 66.6% of their soybean crop through April
  2, above a 57.1% five-year average.
• Offshore
  values were leading CBOT SBO 6 points lower and meal $2.40 short ton higher. 
  
• Rotterdam
  vegetable oil values were down 5-15 euros lower his time previous session and Rotterdam meal mostly 2-3 euros lower. 
  
• China
  cash crush margins on our analysis were 178 vs. 179 cents late last week and compares to 197 cents year earlier. 
  
• China:
  

• ITS
  reported April 1-10 Malaysian palm oil exports at 345,010 tons, up 11.3% from the previous month.  AmSpec reported 343,356 tons, up 10.3%. 
  
• Malaysia’s
  palm oil inventories showed March stocks rising 10.7% to 1.446 million tons, higher than expected, from the month of February, but still 283,622 tons below a year ago.  March production was up 41,354 tons.  Palm exports increased 25% to 1.12 million tons. 
  

• Malaysian
  palm oil: (uses settle price). 
  Malaysian June palm oil ended up falling 3 percent to a one week low. 

• Funds
  on Friday sold an estimated net 6,000 soybean contracts, sold 4,000 soybean meal and sold an estimated 3,000 soybean oil.
  

 

Export
Developments

• Egypt’s
  GASC seeks 30,000 tons of soyoil and 10,000 tons of sunflower oil on April 15 for arrival June 1-20.  Payment is for at sight and 180-day letter of credit. 
  
• Egypt’s
  GASC bought 20,000 tons of refined bottled vegetable oils for May and June shipment.  Last week we picked up they were in for at least 3,000 tons of soybean oil and 2,000 tons of sunflower oil for May 15‐Jun 5 shipment on Sunday (AgriCensus). 
  
• 8,000
  tons of soyoil at 19,850 (equating $1,262.72)
• 5,000
  tons of soyoil at 19,860 (equating to $1,263.35)
• 10,000
  tons of soyoil at 19,800 (equating to $1,259.54)
• 3,000
  tons of soyoil at 20,100 (equating to $1,278.62)
• 3,000
  tons of soyoil at 20,000 (equating to $1,272.26)

 

USDA
Attaché for Malaysian palm oil

https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Oilseeds%20and%20Products%20Annual_Kuala%20Lumpur_Malaysia_04-01-2021

 

 

 

Source:
Reuters and FI

 

Wheat

• US wheat markets
  are lower on a less threatening Black Sea weather forecast and lower soybeans.   Cold temperatures remain a concern for the US western and central Great Plains. 
  
• Black Sea region crop areas of Belarus, Ukraine, southwest Central
  Region, and southwest North Caucasus should see rain this week.  Weekend rains across the US central/southeastern NE, eastern KS, eastern OK, and eastern TX saw rain.  Additional rain will fall today through Wednesday across eastern OK, east central TX.  But
  with that front will be cold temperatures.  Western NE and northern CO will see snow Thursday into Friday.  Other southern Great Plains areas will see rain late workweek.  The Canadian Prairies will dry down after snow occurs today through Tuesday favoring
  southern and eastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba.
• FranceAgriMer sees the French wheat rating declining after recent
  cold weather impacted Europe. 
• Funds on Friday bought and estimated net 8,000 CBOT SRW wheat contracts.
  
• Last week China did end up selling 515,209 tons of wheat out of
  auction, 13 percent of what was offered, smallest weekly percent sold since December 23.
  
• IKAR reported Russian wheat export prices were higher last week,
  snapping a five-week decline.  Back Sea 12.5% protein was at $247 a ton FOB at the end of last week, up $2 from the previous week.  Barley prices fell by $2 to $233 a ton.
  
• ProZerno sees Russian 2021 wheat crop at 78 million tons.
  
• SovEcon on Friday raised their ‘21 Russian wheat production projection
  by 1.4 million tons to 80.7.
• APK-Inform reported Ukrainian wheat export prices decreased $7 a
  ton over the past week.  

 

Export Developments.

• Jordan postponed their 120,000 ton import tender of animal feed
  barley from April 6 to April 13.  

• Japan in its weekly SGS import tender seeks 80,000 tons of feed wheat and 100,000 tons of barley for arrival
  by September 30. 

• Ethiopia seeks 30,000 tons of wheat on April 16. 
  
• Ethiopia seeks 400,000 tons of optional origin milling wheat, on April 20, valid for 30 days.  In January
  Ethiopia cancelled 600,000 tons of wheat from a November import tender because of contractual disagreements. 
  

 

Rice/Other

·        
Mauritius seeks 4,000 tons of optional origin long grain white rice on April 16 for delivery between June 1 and July 31.

·        
Bangladesh seeks 50,000 tons of rice on April 18. 

·        
Syria seeks 39,400 tons of white rice on April 19.  Origin and type might be White Chinese rice or Egyptian short grain rice.

·        
Ethiopia seeks 170,000 tons of parboiled rice on April 20.