PDF attached

 

Good
morning

USDA
S&D report day

 

Slow
news day with 2 rice import developments and China CASDE indicating corn imports will be near 22 million tons for 2020-21.  USD is higher and WTI lower.  CBOT ags are mostly higher (Beans mixed & SBO lower on product spreading) from positioning ahead of the
USDA report.  Spreads are tame.  Palm oil was down 24 MYR overnight and cash unchanged.  China soybeans and meal were higher while veg oils sold off.  Global tender business was slow. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weather

 

 

World
Weather Inc.

MARKET
WEATHER MENTALITY FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS: 

Argentina
weather will remain very good for late season corn, sorghum, soybeans and peanuts.  No area will be left too dry after rain falls into Saturday. Brazil weather will continue too dry in the interior south and portions of center south where crop stress is expected
to evolve as additional drying occurs through the next ten days.

U.S.
weather is looking relatively good for early season planting with rain this week helping to ensure good soil moisture for aggressive planting later this month. Field progress will not advance very well during the next ten days in some of the wetter areas,
but some progress is expected. Colder temperatures next week will also slow some planting intention for a little while.

            Western
Europe has turned cooler and will remain cool into next week. Not much coarse grain planting is expected right away, but some fieldwork should begin later this month. Warming in the western CIS will slowly bring rapeseed in Ukraine out of dormancy, but that
will be a slow process.

            India’s
winter crops are maturing and will be harvested swiftly in the next few weeks. China’s winter crops need to warm up, but soil moisture is favorable for aggressive development once it does warm appropriately. Some rapeseed areas are a little too wet. China’s
spring planting will also advance well once warming kicks in.

           
South Africa summer crops have yielded well and should mature and be harvested in a favorable environment.

            Overall,
weather today may support a mixed influence on market mentality with a slight bullish bias.

 

MARKET
WEATHER MENTALITY FOR WHEAT:  Rain advertised for the west-central and southwestern Plains next week will be good for wheat development if the rain verifies and the situation will be closely monitored. In the meantime, the northwestern U.S. Plains and southwestern
Canada’s Prairies will stay quite dry while a few other areas get light rain and snow. Greater rain potentials “may” evolve after April 20 in the southwestern Prairies and northwestern Plains.  Freezing temperatures in the central Plains Saturday and again
next week should not induce permanent crop damage.

            Small
grain planting conditions in Europe were improving with warmer temperatures last weekend, but cooling since then is limiting new crop development and could slow seed germination and plant emergence for a while. Winter crops in Europe are rated favorably with
those in the west coming out of dormancy. Most of the CIS winter crops are just beginning to green up in Ukraine and Russia’s Southern Region while still dormant elsewhere. Strong warming in Russia next week should bring on greater greening in the south.

            India’s
winter crops are maturing and expected to be harvested swiftly in the next few weeks. China’s winter crops are greening up in the north and in the vegetative stage of development in the south with huge production potentials this year.

            Australia
will need rain later this month and next to support autumn planting and the prospects for that moisture are looking good.

            North
Africa will get some rain this week, but more will be needed to induce the best possible crop development and production potential.

            Overall,
weather today will likely produce a mixed influence on market mentality.

Source:
World Weather inc.

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Friday,
April 9:

  • USDA’s
    monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand (WASDE) report, noon
  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

 

Macro

 

Corn

  • CBOT
    corn
    is
    higher on follow through buying ahead of the USDA report.   Overnight news was very quiet.  May corn is near its contract high.
  • Some
    traders are wondering if the recent rally was already worked in ahead of what people expect as a bullish report. 
  • Funds
    on Thursday bought an estimated net 35,000 corn contracts.
  • China
    in their CASDE report raised their corn import forecast for 2020-21 to 22 million tons from 10 million tons previous month.  This was warranted and already penciled in balance sheets. 

 

Export
developments.

  • None
    reported

 

Source:
Reuters and FI

 

Soybeans

  • CBOT
    soybeans
    were
    higher before turning mostly lower on lack of direction ahead of the USDA report.  News this morning is light.  Meal is higher that is creating pressure on soybean oil. 
  • Argentina’s
    BA Grains Exchange lowered their Argentina soybean crop estimate by 1 million tons to 43 million tons.  They left corn unchanged at 45 million tons.  Argentina’s soybean harvest is 3.5 percent complete. 
  • Funds
    on Thursday bought an estimated net 4,000 soybean contracts, sold 1,000 soybean meal and bought an estimated 2,000 soybean oil.
  • There
    were no changes to CBOT registrations other than ethanol (see above). 
  • Offshore
    values were leading CBOT SBO 35 points lower (121 higher for the week to date) and meal $0.50 short ton higher (more than $10/short ton higher for the week). 
  • Rotterdam
    soybean meal values were unchanged to 2 euros lower his time yesterday and Rotterdam vegetable oils mostly 5 to 15 euros higher. 
  • China
    cash crush margins on our analysis were 179 (161 previous) vs. 144 cents late last week and compares to 214 cents year earlier. 
  • China:

 

Export
Developments

  • None
    reported

 

A
Reuters poll for Malaysia’s palm oil inventories shows March stocks expected to rise 1.3% from February to 1.32 million tons, production to slightly decline, and exports to be up 25% to 1.12 million tons.  The Malaysian Palm Oil Board will release the official
data on April 12.

 

 

Wheat

  • Chicago
    wheat

    is
    higher on follow through buying.  May Chicago is back above its 100-day MA. 

  • Soft wheat conditions were unchanged from the previous week at 87% for the week ending April 5.  Winter barley was up 1 point to 85 percent. 
  • SovEcon pegged the Russian 2021 wheat crop at 80.7 million tons.
  • Funds on Thursday bought and estimated net 2,000 CBOT SRW wheat contracts.

 

Export Developments.

  • Tunisia bought 75,000 tons of optional origin soft wheat at an estimated $259.82, $262.42 and $259.89 a
    ton c&f for May 15 and June 25 shipment.
  • Thailand buyers bought 58,000 tons of feed wheat at around $275/ton c&f for June shipment.  TFMA passed
    on a half million tons earlier this week. 
  • Taiwan flour mills bought 96,485 tons of US wheat for May and June shipment off the PNW. 
    • 25,270 tons of 14.5% protein U.S. dark northern spring wheat at $285.04 a ton FOB
    • 15,390 tons of 12.5% protein hard red winter wheat at $262.81 a ton
    • 5,005 tons of soft white wheat of 9% protein bought at $260.79 a ton FOB.
    • 27,990 tons of dark northern spring wheat of 14.5% protein content bought at $285.04 a ton
    • 16,500 tons of hard red winter wheat of 12.5% protein content bought at $262.81
    • 6,490 ton of soft white wheat of 9% protein bought at $260.79 a ton FOB. 
  • Japan in its weekly SGS import tender seeks 80,000 tons of feed wheat and 100,000 tons of barley for arrival
    by September 30. 
  • Japan bought 90,815 tons of food wheat this week from the US and Canada for June loading.  Original details
    as follows:

  • Ethiopia seeks 30,000 tons of wheat on April 16. 
  • Jordan postponed their 120,000 ton import tender of animal feed barley from April 6 to April 13.  
  • Ethiopia seeks 400,000 tons of optional origin milling wheat, on April 20, valid for 30 days.  In January Ethiopia cancelled 600,000 tons of wheat
    from a November import tender because of contractual disagreements. 

 

Rice/Other

·        
Iraq bought 60,000 tons of rice from Pakistan at $595/ton c&f. 

·        
Bangladesh seeks 50,000 tons of rice on April 18. 

·        
Ukraine seeks to import 110,000 tons of sugar in 2020-21. 

·        
Mauritius seeks 4,000 tons of optional origin long grain white rice on April 16 for delivery between June 1 and July 31.

·        
Syria seeks 39,400 tons of white rice on April 19.  Origin and type might be White Chinese rice or Egyptian short grain rice.

·        
Ethiopia seeks 170,000 tons of parboiled rice on April 20.

 

 

Terry Reilly

Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds

Futures International
One Lincoln Center
18 W 140 Butterfield Rd.

Oakbrook Terrace, Il. 60181

W: 312.604.1366

treilly@futures-int.com

ICE IM: 
treilly1

Skype: fi.treilly

 

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