FI Morning Grain Comments 03/25/21

Mar 25, 2021







PDF attached

 

Morning.
 

 

USDA
export sales were poor for soybeans and ok for the products, good for corn and wheat.  China bought a cargo of sorghum and pork sales were again good.   Today we are seeing risk off following lower palm oil, RBOB & WTI crude oil and higher USD. US GDP Annualized
(Q/Q) Q4 T: 4.3% (exp 4.1%; prev 4.1%). 

 

 

 

Weather

Brazil
will see a drier bias over the next seven days.  Monsoon rains are expected to withdraw later in April.  Argentina will see additional rains Wednesday into Friday.  South Cordoba and southeast BA will miss on some of the rains.  GFS model run in showing a
ridge of high pressure over the central U.S. throughout much of the second week of the outlook.  The US southern and central Great Plains (HRW) bias eastern areas will see additional rain this week. Rest of the US will be ok with exception of too much precipitation
for the Delta that will slow fieldwork activity.  Midwest will not start planting for a week or two so there is no concern there except for the Ten River Basin where too much rain will occur.  Eastern Australia will dry down this week.

 

 

 

 

SA Week 1 Accum Precipitation (mm) Forecast

 

 

 

World
Weather Inc.

OVERNIGHT
MODEL CHANGES

UNITED
STATES

  • No
    theme changes in the first week
  • Drier
    and warmer second week outlook
    • Rain
      was removed from the Delta into the central Plains April 5-6
      • A
        little too much rain may have been removed, but the high pressure ridge should be notable
  • Showers
    and thunderstorms were increased April 6-8 as frontal system moves into the Plains
    • Greater
      rainfall may be needed in future model runs

CANADA
PRAIRIES

  • No
    big changes in first week – light to moderate snow and rain still expected early next week in southeastern Prairies
  • Greater
    precipitation in northwestern Prairies (northern Alberta and northwestern Saskatchewan) April 4-6
    • The
      event is overdone
  • Precipitation
    added to eastern Prairies April 6-7
    • The
      event may be overdone, but may verify to some extent

ARGENTINA

  • Rain
    event under way today is evolving as expected – no change in the first week outlook with drier weather late this weekend and next week
  • Next
    frontal system and precipitation event is expected late next week
  • GFS
    model increased rain in northern Argentina April 5-6 and reduced it in southeastern Argentina
    • The
      change was needed

BRAZIL

  • No
    significant changes were noted for the next ten days with net drying southeastern half of Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul and western and northern Parana into Bahia
  • GFS
    reduced rain in southern Brazil and parts of Paraguay April 4-6
    • The
      reduction was needed
  • GFS
    increased rain from Mato Grosso to Minas Gerais April 7-8
    • Some
      increase was needed
  • GFS
    reduced rain in far southern Brazil (Rio Grande do Sul) April 7-8
    • Some
      reduction was needed

EUROPE

  • No
    significant change in the first week of the outlook

CIS

  • No
    significant change was noted in the first week of the outlook – rain event is under way from eastern Ukraine to Kazakhstan

CHINA

  • No
    changes were noted in the first week of the outlook
  • GFS
    was a little drier in the northern North China Plain and into southern Jilin April 1-3
    • This
      change was needed
  • GFS
    increased rain in east-central China April 4-6
    • Some
      increase was needed

AUSTRALIA

  • No
    changes were noted through day 10 – eastern Australia will experience net drying throughout the period; all of southern Australia will be dry biased as well
  •  

SOUTH
AFRICA

  • No
    changes were noted in the first week of the outlook

Source:
World Weather inc.

 

Source:
World Weather inc.

 

Source:
World Weather inc.

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Thursday,
March 25:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • Seminar
    on sustainable palm oil in India by the Solvent Extractors’ Association and the Malaysian Palm Oil Board
  • International
    Grains Council monthly report
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • Malaysia’s
    March 1-25 palm oil export data
  • USDA
    hogs & pigs Inventory, red meat production

Friday,
March 26:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

USDA
Export Sales

Soybeans
were disappointing, meal & SBO ok, corn at upper end of expectations and wheat within.  China bought sorghum and pork sales were 38,700 tons. 

 

 

 

Macro

US
GDP Annualized (Q/Q) Q4 T: 4.3% (exp 4.1%; prev 4.1%)

–        
Personal Consumption Q4 T: 2.3% (exp 2.4%; prev 2.4%)

–        
GDP Price Index Q4 T: 2.0% (exp 2.1%; prev 2.1%)

–        
Core PCE (Q/Q) Q4 T: 1.3% (exp 1.4%; prev 1.4%)

US
Initial Jobless Claims Mar-20: 684K (exp 730K; R prev 781K)

–        
Continuing Claims Mar-13: 3870K (exp 4000K; R prev 4134K)

Stranded
Suez Canal Vessel’s Grounding Situation Has Not Been Resolved – RTRS Citing Evergreen

 

 

Corn

 

 

Export
developments.

  • There
    were no USDA 24-hour sales. 

 

Soybeans

 

China
futures:

Malaysian
palm oil: (uses settle price)

 

Export
Developments

  • None
    reported.   

 

Wheat

 

Past
7 days

 

  • South
    Korea bought at least 459,000 tons of feed wheat this week.  After two South Korean groups about 262,000 tons of feed wheat on Wednesday, South Korea’s NOFI group bought 131,000 tons of feed wheat, optional origin, for arrival around August 5 and September
    25.  And later, MFG in their third import tender this week picked up another 66,000 tons of feed wheat at $268.40/ton c&f for arrival around October 20. 
  • Funds
    on Wednesday bought an estimated net 6,000 SRW wheat contracts. 
  • EU
    May milling wheat hit our stop target of 216 euros around 5 am CT, hitting a session low of 215.50.  It was 2.50 lower at 216.00 euros as of 7:40 am CT.  Next level of support is seen at 210.50. 
  • The
    European Commission estimated soft wheat production for the EU-27 at 126.7 million tons in 2021-22 from 117.1 million for 2020-21.  Soft wheat exports were seen at 30.0 million tons compared to 27.0 million this season. 
  • IKAR:
    Russian wheat forecast 79.8 million tons from 78 million tons and exports 39.5 million tons (up 1 million tons previous).  We have not seen the USDA Attaché publish a 2021-22 Russia wheat S&D yet. 

 

Export
Developments.

  • South
    Korea’s NOFI group bought 131,000 tons of feed wheat, optional origin, for arrival around August 5 and September 25, at an estimated $287.00 & $268.48/ton c&f. 
  • MFG
    in their third import tender this week picked up another 66,000 tons of feed wheat at $268.40/ton c&f for arrival around October 20. 
  • Ethiopia
    seeks 400,000 tons of optional origin milling wheat, on April 20, valid for 30 days.  In January Ethiopia cancelled 600,000 tons of wheat from a November import tender because of contractual disagreements. 
  • Jordan
    will be back in for feed barley on March 30. Possible shipment combinations are Oct. 1-15, Oct. 16-31, Nov. 1-15 and Nov. 16-30, the same periods as sought in the previous two tenders.
  • Results
    awaited: South Korean group SPC seeks 35,000 tons of milling wheat from the United States and Canada on March 23. for arrival in July.

 

Rice/Other

·        
Ethiopia seeks 170,000 tons of parboiled rice on April 20.

·        
Yesterday Sinograin estimated China’s cotton crop at 5.95 million tons up from an estimated 5.8 million tons in 2019-20.

·        
Results awaited: South Korea’s Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. seeks 208,217 tons of rice, on March 25 for arrival in South Korea in 2021 between May 1 and Oct. 31.  64,444 tons of non-glutinous brown rice is sought from the
United States.  Rest from Thailand, China, Australia and Vietnam.

·        
Syria seeks 25,000 tons of white rice on March 29, from China or Egypt.

·        
Syria seeks 39,400 tons of white rice on April 19.  Origin and type might be White Chinese rice or Egyptian short grain rice.

 

 

USDA Export Sales

This
summary is based on reports from exporters for the period March 12 – 18, 2021.

Wheat:  Net
sales of 343,600 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were down 12 percent from the previous week, but up 24 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Japan (118,800 MT), South Korea (116,400 MT, including decreases of 500 MT and 65,000 MT
late), China (76,300 MT, including 65,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Algeria (63,700 MT, including 35,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,300 MT), and Bangladesh
(61,600 MT, including 57,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), were offset by reductions primarily for unknown destinations (215,200 MT).  For 2021/2022, net sales of 70,500 MT were reported for the Philippines (58,000 MT), Mexico (10,000 MT), unknown
destinations (2,000 MT), and Colombia (500 MT).  Exports of 658,800 MT were unchanged from the previous week, but up 37 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Bangladesh (116,600 MT), Japan (81,500 MT), Algeria (73,700 MT),
China (70,300 MT), and Mexico (64,300 MT). 

Optional
Origin Sales: 
For 2020/2021, decreases totaling 10,000 MT were reported for Spain.

Late
Reporting: 
For 2020/2021, net sales totaling 65,000 MT of white wheat was reported late for South Korea.

Corn: 
Net sales of 4,481,900 MT for 2020/2021 were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. 
Increases primarily for China (3,890,600 MT), South Korea (353,300 MT, including 125,000 MT switched from unknown destinations, decreases of 31,000 MT, and 66,000 MT late), Mexico (196,000 MT, including
13,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 29,600 MT), Colombia (131,100 MT, including 93,300 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 9,500 MT), and Indonesia (75,000 MT, including 66,000 MT switched from unknown destinations),
were offset by reductions primarily for unknown destinations (461,800 MT).  For
2021/2022, net sales of 144,600 MT were reported for
Mexico (90,000 MT), unknown destinations (50,000 MT), and Japan (4,600 MT).  Exports of 2,036,000 MT were down 7 percent from the previous week, but up 17 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico (470,200 MT),
China (418,100 MT), South Korea (349,300 MT), Japan (197,300 MT), and Colombia (146,300 MT).

Optional
Origin Sales: 
For 2020/2021, options were exercised to export 189,000 MT to South Korea from the United States.  The current outstanding balance of 890,400 MT is for South Korea (549,000 MT), unknown destinations (244,000 MT), China (65,000 MT), and the Ukraine (32,400
MT). 

Late
Reporting: 
For 2020/2021, net sales totaling 66,000 MT were reported late for South Korea.

Barley: 
For 2020/2021, net sales reductions of 4,700 MT resulting in increases primarily for South Korea (1,000 MT), were offset set by reductions for Japan (5,700 MT).  For 2021/2022, total net sales of 5,700 MT were for Japan.  Export of 700 MT were primarily to
Japan (300 MT) and Canada (300 MT).

Sorghum: 
For 2020/2021, net sales of 60,800 MT were primarily for China (60,500 MT). 
Exports of 71,000 MT were down 80 percent from the previous week and 53 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destination was primarily to China.

Rice: 
Net sales of 53,700 MT for 2020/2021 were down 52 percent from the previous week and 32 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for Mexico (30,300 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), Japan (12,000 MT), Saudi Arabia (4,300 MT), Canada
(2,000 MT), and Guatemala (2,000 MT).  Exports of 21,900 MT were down 76 percent from the previous week and 74 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico (10,500 MT), Canada (3,600 MT), Saudi Arabia (2,000 MT), Taiwan
(900 MT), and Belgium (900 MT).

Soybeans: 
Net sales of 101,800 MT for 2020/2021 were down 50 percent from the previous week and 56 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Egypt (109,700 MT, including 55,000 MT switched
from unknown destinations and decreases of 4,600 MT), Indonesia (63,100 MT, including 55,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 100 MT), Mexico (50,600 MT, including 47,500 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,000 MT),
Japan (9,600 MT), and Malaysia (4,800 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for unknown destinations (152,500 MT).  For
2021/2022, total net sales of 65,000 MT were reported for unknown destinations.  Exports of 501,400 MT were down 6 percent from the previous week and 40 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The
destinations were primarily to Egypt (164,700 MT), Mexico (145,100 MT), Indonesia (79,600 MT), Japan (35,200 MT), and Taiwan (28,600 MT). 

Exports
for Own Account: 
The current exports for own account outstanding balance is 5,800 MT, all Canada.

Soybean
Cake and Meal: 
Net sales of 167,800 MT for 2020/2021 were down 29 percent from the previous week and 20 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Mexico (60,800 MT), Ecuador (45,000 MT), Colombia (17,600 MT, including 10,000 MT switched from unknown
destinations and 4,100 MT switched from Panama), Guatemala (12,900 MT, including 4,900 MT switched from Honduras, 4,500 MT switched from Costa Rica, and decreases of 100 MT), and Canada (11,500 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), were offset by reductions
primarily for Honduras (10,000 MT) and unknown destinations (10,000 MT).  For 2021/2022, net sales of 17,200 MT were reported for Mexico (16,900 MT) and Canada (300 MT).  Exports of 281,600 MT were up 14 percent from the previous week and 7 percent from the
prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to the Philippines (99,300 MT), Mexico (59,800 MT), Colombia (37,100 MT), Canada (26,900 MT), and the Dominican Republic (13,100 MT).

Soybean
Oil: 
Net sales of 13,200 MT for 2020/2021 were down 31 percent from the previous week, but up 56 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for Venezuela (5,000 MT), the Dominican Republic (4,000 MT), Guatemala (2,700 MT), Canada (900 MT),
and Mexico (500 MT).  Exports of 12,100 MT were up 53 percent from the previous week, but down 58 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Guatemala (7,000 MT), Jamaica (3,500 MT), Mexico (800 MT), and Canada (600 MT).

Cotton: 
Net sales of 271,200 RB for 2020/2021 were down 38 percent from the previous week, but up 2 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Vietnam (135,500 RB, including 2,200 RB switched from China, 1,100 RB switched from Japan, and 1,100
RB switched from South Korea), Turkey (77,000 RB, including decreases of 200 RB), Pakistan (22,200 RB, including 2,900 RB switched from the United Arab Emirates), Peru (14,900 RB), and Bangladesh (7,100 RB), were offset by reductions primarily for the United
Arab Emirates (2,900 RB) and China (1,800 RB).  For 2021/2022, net sales of 69,400 RB were primarily for China (41,400 RB), Pakistan (8,800 RB), South Korea (7,900 RB), Honduras (3,100 RB), and Turkey (2,600 RB).  Exports of 313,500 RB were down 11 percent
from the previous week and 9 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Exports were primarily to China (62,300 RB), Pakistan (51,400 RB), Bangladesh (42,200 RB), Vietnam (40,800 RB), and Turkey (36,700 RB).  Net sales of Pima totaling 7,000 RB were unchanged
from the previous week, but down 29 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for India (3,100 RB), Austria (1,300 RB), Honduras (1,300 RB), Bangladesh (700 RB), and Pakistan (400 RB).  Exports of 9,300 RB were down 10 percent from the
previous week and 33 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to India (2,900 RB), China (1,800 RB), Pakistan (1,000 RB), Thailand (900 RB), and Peru (900 RB).  

Exports
for Own Account: 
For 2020/2021, new exports for own account totaling 1,100 RB were to Vietnam.  Exports for own account totaling 3,600 RB to China (2,100 RB) and Vietnam (1,500 RB) were applied to new or outstanding sales.  The current exports for own account outstanding balance
of 34,400 RB are for China (25,200 RB), Vietnam (8,800 RB), and Bangladesh (400 RB).

Hides
and Skins: 
Net sales of 560,000 pieces for 2021 were unchanged from the previous week and up 36 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for China (418,600 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 23,000 pieces), South Korea (62,000 whole cattle
hides, including decreases of 1,500 pieces), Indonesia (29,200 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 400 pieces), Mexico (21,000 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 500 pieces), and Thailand (15,300 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 300
pieces).  In
addition, total net sales reductions of 800 kip skins were for Belgium. 
Exports of 378,700 pieces for 2021 were up 4 percent from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  Whole cattle hides exports were primarily to China (250,300 pieces), South Korea (52,300 pieces), Mexico (32,500 pieces), Thailand (18,900 pieces),
and Taiwan (12,600 pieces).  

Net
sales of 220,600 wet blues for 2021 were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for China (68,700 unsplit, including decreases of 400 unsplit), Vietnam (53,600 unsplit), Thailand (45,700 unsplit, including
decreases of 300 unsplit), Italy (28,900 unsplit, including decreases of 100 unsplit), and the Dominican Republic (9,600 unsplit).  Exports of 100,500 wet blues for 2021 were up 1 percent from the previous week and 8 percent from the prior 4-week average. 
The destinations were primarily to China (31,000 unsplit), Italy (19,800 unsplit), Vietnam (17,700 unsplit), Mexico (12,500 grain splits and 3,400 unsplit), and Thailand (8,200 unsplit).  Net sales of 202,300 splits resulting in increases for Taiwan (128,200
pounds, including decreases of 1,600 pounds), Vietnam (40,700 pounds, including decreases of 4,000 pounds), and Italy (34,200 pounds, including decreases of 11,200 pounds), were offset by reductions for China (800 pounds).  Exports of 408,200 pounds were to
Vietnam (237,600 pounds), Italy (86,700 pounds), China (42,200 pounds), and Taiwan (41,700 pounds). 

Beef: 
Net
sales of 18,900 MT reported for 2021 were down 27 percent from the previous week and 3 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for Japan (5,800 MT, including decreases of 600 MT), South Korea (4,400 MT, including decreases of 500 MT),
China (3,600 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Taiwan (1,600 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), and Chile (800 MT).  Exports of 18,500 MT were up 4 percent from the previous week and 5 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily
to Japan (5,700 MT), South Korea (4,400 MT), China (3,200 MT), Taiwan (1,300 MT), and Mexico (1,300 MT).

Pork: 
Net
sales of 38,700 MT reported for 2021 were down 3 percent from the previous week and 2 percent from the prior 4-week average. 
Increases primarily for Mexico (17,300 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), China (10,500 MT, including decreases of 1,000 MT), Japan (3,000 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), Canada (2,700 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), and South Korea (2,200 MT, including
decreases of 1,300 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for Australia (100 MT).  Exports of 38,500 MT were down 5 percent from the previous week and 1 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to China (12,000 MT), Mexico
(9,600 MT), Japan (4,800 MT), the Philippines (2,300 MT), and South Korea (2,300 MT).  

March
25, 2021                                                1                FOREIGN AGRICULTURAL SERVICE/USDA

 

U.S. EXPORT SALES FOR WEEK ENDING 3/18/2021 





























 

CURRENT MARKETING YEAR

NEXT MARKETING YEAR

COMMODITY

NET SALES

OUTSTANDING SALES

WEEKLY EXPORTS

ACCUMULATED EXPORTS

NET SALES

OUTSTANDING SALES

CURRENT YEAR

YEAR
AGO

CURRENT YEAR

YEAR
AGO

 

THOUSAND METRIC TONS

WHEAT

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   HRW    

90.6

1,398.7

1,928.3

120.1

7,017.1

7,321.9

0.0

283.5

   SRW    

28.8

354.6

289.5

62.1

1,439.8

2,044.2

10.5

313.3

   HRS     

113.6

1,648.2

1,640.4

230.8

5,767.7

5,632.2

34.0

310.0

   WHITE   

111.9

1,956.5

1,119.7

172.2

4,600.9

3,821.1

26.0

183.3

   DURUM  

-1.3

78.3

230.4

73.7

592.1

682.2

0.0

5.0

     TOTAL

343.6

5,436.3

5,208.3

658.8

19,417.6

19,501.7

70.5

1,095.1

BARLEY

-4.7

6.1

11.3

0.7

22.7

37.8

5.7

20.2

CORN

4,481.9

32,988.6

13,783.9

2,036.0

31,998.1

17,048.1

144.6

1,939.5

SORGHUM

60.8

2,748.1

1,286.6

71.0

3,518.4

1,186.0

0.0

756.0

SOYBEANS

101.8

6,380.1

4,612.9

501.4

54,355.8

31,138.8

65.0

5,141.2

SOY MEAL

167.8

2,594.5

3,051.2

281.6

6,202.2

5,610.5

17.2

250.3

SOY OIL

13.2

114.0

278.9

12.1

521.1

553.1

0.0

0.6

RICE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   L G RGH

32.0

330.5

346.8

10.0

1,053.2

935.2

0.0

0.0

   M S RGH

0.0

5.3

43.3

0.0

23.5

24.5

0.0

0.0

   L G BRN

0.3

4.0

20.9

0.3

33.4

36.3

0.0

0.0

   M&S BR

0.7

69.6

63.7

1.4

83.8

44.3

0.0

0.0

   L G MLD

5.5

58.3

93.4

4.8

440.9

644.9

0.0

0.0

   M S MLD

15.2

243.7

225.5

5.5

360.4

398.2

0.0

0.0

     TOTAL

53.7

711.4

793.6

21.9

1,995.4

2,083.4

0.0

0.0

COTTON

 

THOUSAND RUNNING BALES      

   UPLAND

271.2

5,351.8

6,918.4

313.5

9,146.8

8,226.5

69.4

1,501.6

   PIMA

7.0

257.5

235.1

9.3

477.4

304.4

0.0

1.1

 

 

Terry Reilly

Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds

Futures International
One Lincoln Center
18 W 140 Butterfield Rd.

Oakbrook Terrace, Il. 60181

W: 312.604.1366

treilly@futures-int.com

ICE IM: 
treilly1

Skype: fi.treilly

 

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