FI Morning Grain Comments 03/07/23

PDF attached

 

Good
morning

 

There
were no 24-hour USDA sales this morning. USD is higher by 27 points and WTI crude oil 39 cents lower. Soybeans and soybean oil are lower on light fund selling and weakness in palm oil futures. Meal is slightly higher but after climbing 5 consecutive days the
bullish momentum is slowing. Corn is lower on lack of fresh news. Inspections for corn have improved while soybean exports slowed. US wheat is mixed. Chicago wheat hit a 17-month low yesterday. Look for positioning today ahead of the USDA reports due out Wednesday,
and news out of the Black Sea region regarding the grain shipping deal.

 

 

 

Weather

 

World
Weather, INC.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR MARCH 7, 2023

• Santa
  Fe, southern Chaco and northern Buenos Aires, Argentina eastward to western and southern Rio Grande do Sul and southwestern Paraguay will be dry for the next ten days
  
• Rain
  is still predicted for western and far southern Argentina and in many areas in center west through center south Brazil
• Brazil’s
  dry areas in Bahia, northeastern Minas Gerais and Espirito Santo will get rain next week
• U.S.
  precipitation will be greatest in three areas over the next ten days
• The
  northern Plains and upper Midwest will see waves of snow
• Areas
  from eastern Oklahoma through the northern Delta to the Tennessee River Basin and interior southeastern states will be wetter than usual with 2.00 to 4.00 inches and local totals over 5.00 inches possible by March 17
• Central
  and northern California through the Cascade mountains of western Oregon and western Washington will receive frequent bouts of rain and snow further raising the spring runoff potential
  
• West
  Texas, South Texas and the Texas Coastal Bend will be dry biased over the next ten days
• Limited
  moisture is expected west-central parts of the U.S. hard red winter wheat country over the next ten days, although some snow and rain will be possible briefly next week
• Central
  and southeastern parts of Canada’s Prairies will get some weekend snow that will prove to be beneficial
• Europe
  weather will turn more active with France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Belgium and Netherlands becoming much wetter in the coming week to ten days
• Eastern
  Spain and the lower Danube River Basin will remain drier biased
• Western
  CIS precipitation will continue frequent maintaining wet fields and abundant snow cover
• India
  is still expecting some showers later this week that will help temper warmer than usual temperatures and crop stress
• China
  precipitation will be greatest from Jiangxi to southern Sichuan and Guizhou in this coming week to ten days; most other areas will get minimal precipitation and stay warmer than usual
• Queensland
  and far northeastern New South Wales, Australia will receive rain Wednesday into Saturday offering some relief from dryness
• North
  Africa precipitation will be minimal for the next ten days

Source:
World Weather and FI

 

Bloomberg
Ag calendar

Tuesday,
March 7:

• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• US
  Purdue Agriculture Sentiment
• New
  Zealand global dairy trade auction
• Bursa
  Malaysia’s palm oil conference and 2023 outlook, Kuala Lumpur, day 2
• ABARES
  Outlook 2023 conference, Canberra, day 1
• HOLIDAY:
  India

Wednesday,
March 8:

• USDA’s
  World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), 12pm
• China’s
  agriculture ministry (CASDE) releases monthly report on supply and demand for corn and soybeans
• Bursa
  Malaysia Palm Oil Conference and 2023 Outlook, Kuala Lumpur, day 3
• EIA
  weekly US ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• ABARES
  Outlook 2023 conference, Canberra, day 2

Thursday,
March 9:

• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• Brazil’s
  Conab releases data on production, yield and area for corn and soybeans

Friday,
March 10:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options, 3:30pm
• Malaysian
  Palm Oil Board’s data on stockpiles, production and exports
• FranceAgriMer’s
  weekly crop conditions reports
• Brazil’s
  Unica may release cane crush and sugar output data (tentative)
• Coffee
  festival in Dak Lak province, Vietnam

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

USDA
March report estimates

 

 

 

 

Due
out March 9

 

 

 

Soybean
and Corn Advisory

2022/23
Brazil Soybean Estimate Unchanged at 151.0 Million Tons

2022/234
Brazil Corn Estimate Unchanged at 121.0 Million Tons

2022/23
Argentina Soybean Estimate Lowered 1.0 mt to 31.0 Million

2022/23
Argentina Corn Estimate Lowered 1.0 mt to 40.0 Million

 

Macros

UN
Chief Guterres To Meet Ukraine’s Zelenskiy In Kyiv On Wednesday To Talk Renewal Of Grain Export Deal – UN Spokesman

US
Oil Production Will Grow By About 500,000 Barrels Per Day, With 80% Or 90% Of That Coming From The Permian – Occidental Petroleum Executive

Fed
Chairman Jerome Powell will be speaking over the next two days to members of Congress, regarding monetary policy.

 

 

Corn

·        
Corn futures
are lower on lack of fresh news and improving US soil moisture levels after several bouts of precipitation through early March. US corn inspections are improving while soybeans are slowing.

·        
USDA US corn export inspections as of March 02, 2023, were 899,810 tons, above a range of trade expectations, above 649,303 tons previous week and compares to 1,582,167 tons year ago. Major countries included Mexico for 374,646
tons, Colombia for 147,571 tons, and Korea Rep for 104,664 tons.

 

Export
developments.

• No
  24-hour sales were reported by USDA.
• Taiwan’s
  MFIG seeks up to 65,000 tons of corn on March 8 for April 25 and May 25 shipment.
  

 

 

 

Soybeans

·        
Soybean futures are lower from weakness in soybean oil futures and slow US exports. Inspections yesterday were lowest since late September. Soybean meal is near unchanged over persistent concerns over the size of the Argentina
crop.

·        
Look for May soybean meal to eventually test $500, then potentially trade up into the $505-$510 range. The contracts is up for the 5^th consecutive day.

·        
Combined January – February China soybean imports topped 16.17 million tons, up 16 percent from the same period year ago, and highest since 2008. This is good sign China’s economy is rebounding.

·        
APK-Inform warned Ukraine sunflower seed exports may decrease 29 percent to up to 1.2 million tons during the Sep-Aug 2022-23 crop year. They were a record 1.63 million tons for 2021-22. 1.2 million tons is still a large amount,
but some importers may seek out alternative oilseeds to fill the gap.

·        
USDA will update their S&D’s on Wednesday. Much of the focus will be on South American crop production. Many private estimates are well below USDA’s current projections, and we don’t think USDA will be that aggressive in lowering
corn and soybean production for Argentina.

 

 

·        
Malaysia May palm futures were down 78 ringgit to 4,205 and May cash was down $10.00 at $995/ton. 

·        
China soybeans were near down 0.6%, meal up 0.8%, SBO down 1.1% and palm oil futures down 1.3%.

·        
Nearby Rotterdam vegetable oils were
10-25 euros lower from this time yesterday morning and meal mostly 15-20 euros higher.

·        
Offshore values were leading SBO higher by about 1 point this morning and meal $0.20 short ton
lower. 

·        
USDA US soybean export inspections as of March 02, 2023 were 542,238 tons, below a range of trade expectations, below 765,215 tons previous week and compares to 771,956 tons year ago. Major countries included China for 253,589
tons, Japan for 76,610 tons, and Mexico for 63,189 tons.

 

Reuters
trade estimates for Malaysian palm oil S&D due out March 10.

 

Export
Developments

·        
None reported

 

Wheat

·        
Wheat futures are mixed in Chicago, lower for KC and higher for MN. Crop conditions for US winter wheat are slowly improving. Not all winter wheat areas are seeing an improvement. KS reported 17 percent of the winter wheat crop
in G/E condition, down 2 points from the previous week and 64 percent of the topsoil moisture in Kansas was short to very short, up from 60 percent week earlier.

·        
Paris May wheat was lower by 1.75 euros earlier at 269.50 per ton, near a 1-year low for the contract.

·        
USDA US all-wheat export inspections as of March 02, 2023, were 268,136 tons, below a range of trade expectations, below 653,283 tons previous week and compares to 403,187 tons year ago. Major countries included Mexico for 83,747
tons, China for 68,249 tons, and Korea Rep for 55,941 tons.

·        
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres is meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy today to discuss the grain export deal.

·        
Crop year to date Russia grain exports reached 40 million tons. Russia does not intent to curb exports for the remainder of the crop year.

·        
ABARES raised Australian wheat production for 2022-23 to 39.2 million tons from 36.6 million previous.

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Algeria seeks 50,000 tons of durum wheat on March 9 for April 1-15 and April 16-30 shipment.

·        
Japan seeks 80,570 tons of food wheat from the US and Canada on Thursday.

·        
Tunisia seeks 100,000 tons of durum wheat on Wednesday for April through May 15 shipment.

·        
Jordan bought 60,000 tons of hard milling wheat at $315.30 C&F for FH Aug shipment.

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of barley on Wednesday.

·        
China will auction off 140,000 tons of wheat from state reserves on March 8. They sold 141,700 tons last week, or about 100 percent offered at 2795 yuan per ton.

·        
Japan in a SBS import tender seeks 70,000 tons of feed wheat and 40,000 tons of barley for arrival in Japan by August 31 on March 8.

 

 

Rice/Other

·        
None reported