FI Morning Grain Comments 02/01/21

PDF attached

 

Morning.

 

Overnight
most of the CBOT ag markets were higher but as we head into the early morning soybeans, meal and SBO are lower.  Note the Brazilian trucker strike started today.  Corn is higher after China overtook Mexico as top US corn buyer later last week.  US wheat was
mostly lower as the USD was up 29 points. Tender announcements were slow.  South Korea’s KFA bought 60,000 tons of soybean meal and
Egypt’s
GASC seeks at least 30k soybean oil and 10k sunflower oil.  After
the close NASS is due out with the November US crush.  China cash crush margins eased a touch from Friday. Malaysia was on holiday for Federal Territory Day. 

 

WASHINGTON,
February 1, 2021–Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture the following activity:

–Export
sales of 125,730 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2020/2021 marketing year;

–Export
sales of 110,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Japan during the 2020/2021 marketing year; and

–Export
sales of 133,000 metric tons of soybean meal for delivery to the Philippines during the 2020/2021 marketing year.

 

 

CFTC
showed a record long position for CBOT traditional funds futures only corn of 547,677 contracts.  Traditional funds futures and options combined maintains their 1/12 record long position of 557,581 contracts.  Money manager positions are nearing highs for
net longs. 

 

Weather

MOST
IMPORTANT WEATHER AROUND THE WORLD

• Argentina
  rainfall scattered from San Luis through Cordoba through southeastern Santiago del Estero and Santa Fe to Corrientes, Entre Rios and northeastern Buenos Aires early in the weekend and rain developed overnight from the north half of Buenos Aires northward into
  Cordoba and Santa Fe once again
• Rainfall
  varied from 1.00 to 2.75 inches with local totals to 3.54 inches early in the weekend with another 0.05 to 0.50 inch with local totals to 1.87 inches occurring overnight
• Other
  areas of scattered showers occurred in the remainder of Argentina except in southeastern La Pampa and southern Buenos Aires where dry conditions prevailed
• Chaco
  was also dry through this morning
• Temperatures
  were very warm to hot in northwestern Argentina while close to normal elsewhere with highs in the 80s and lower 90s
• Extreme
  highs in the northwest reached the upper 90s to 102 degrees Fahrenheit
• Lowest
  morning temperatures were in the upper 40s and 50s in the south and in the 60s across the north
• Argentina
  weather will favor net drying conditions over the next ten days with a few exceptions
• Totally
  dry weather is not expected, but most of the precipitation that falls in key crop areas will not counter evaporation very well leading to net drying
• The
  only good news is that the showers that do evolve will likely slow down to decline in soil moisture
• Crops
  will continue to develop favorably especially in central and northeastern parts of the nation where soil conditions are favorably moist after recent rain
  
• Limited
  rainfall in La Pampa and parts of southern Buenos Aires will keep some of those areas with moisture stress on the rise
• Rain
  is expected more routinely in northern Argentina for a while early this week
• Net
  drying will dominate the nation late this week through much of next week
• Temperatures
  will be seasonably mild to warm this week and warmer next week
• Argentina’s
  bottom line is very good after recent abundant rain in the heart of the nation. Drying in the far south will bring on some quick stress to corn, late season soybeans and other crops. Warmer temperatures and quick drying this weekend through next week will
  raise the need for rain in the second week of February, but mostly in those areas that did not get much rain recent which includes southern and central La Pampa and some central and southwestern Buenos Aires locations. World Weather, Inc. believes rain will
  return to Argentina during mid-February, but it is unclear how well that precipitation will be distributed. For now, the recent rain has improved crop development and production potentials in many areas and this trend could be sustained by some timely rainfall
  during mid-month.
• Brazil
  weekend rainfall was concentrated from central and southern Paraguay into Rio Grande do Sul, southern Mato Grosso do Sul, western Parana and western Santa Catarina
• Rain
  totals varied from 1.00 to 2.25 inches most often; however, rainfall of 2.25 to 5.39 inches occurred in southeastern Paraguay, far southwestern Parana and Misiones, Argentina
  
• Some
  parts of the Asuncion, Paraguay area reported 6.40 inches
• Flooding
  may have damaged a few crops in low-lying areas, but most of the crops have handled the wetter weather relatively well
• Sporadic
  showers occurred farther north from central Mato Grosso do Sul to Mato Grosso and Goias with rainfall to 0.72 inch
• Rain
  also developed in southern Minas Gerais and across Goias overnight with amounts to 0.75 inch and locally as great as 1.61 inches in southern Minas Gerais coffee areas
• Drying
  occurred in all other areas
• A
  highly favorable mix of rain and sunshine will occur in Brazil agricultural areas during the coming two weeks
• The
  moisture will be great for full season crops and for late maturing soybeans
• Sufficient
  drying time will occur between rain events to support soybean harvesting and Safrinha crop planting
• Dryness
  will be most significant in eastern Piaui and Bahia
• Temperatures
  will be seasonable during both forecast weeks
• Brazil’s
  bottom line continues favorable for corn and soybean development, although some early season corn production and a few soybean production areas suffered some loss. Most of the soybean region is expected to yield favorably, although perhaps not optimally. In
  the meantime, this week’s weather and next week’s as well will be good for early soybean harvesting and for early Safrinha crop planting. Sugarcane, coffee and citrus will benefit from improved rainfall later this week as will crops in far northeastern parts
  of the nation when rain finally reaches those areas later this week.
• Paraguay
  reported locally heavy rainfall over the past couple of days
• Asuncion
  reported 162 millimeters through this morning which is 6.38 inches most of which occurred since Saturday night into Sunday morning
• Other
  reports of rainfall in the range of 1.25 to 3.11 inches occurred across the interior southern parts of the nation with 5.39 inches occurring near the common borders of Parana and Misiones, Argentina
• U.S.
  snowfall through the weekend varied from 2 to 10 inches from eastern Iowa to southern Wisconsin, northern Illinois, northern and eastern Indiana, southern Michigan and parts of Ohio
  
• 10-13
  inches occurred near the west coast of Lake Michigan from Glendale through Racine to Kenosha, Wisconsin and southward into the greater Chicago area nearest to the lake
• Snow
  also fell in Pennsylvania, Virginia, in the Washington, D.C. area and areas southwest into the central Appalachian Mountains and northeast into southern New England
• U.S.
  rainfall during the weekend was widespread to the south of the snow areas
• Amounts
  ranged from 0.30 to 1.30 inches from the southeastern one-third of Kansas and extreme northeastern Oklahoma to southeastern Iowa, central and southern Illinois and areas east into southern Ohio, Kentucky and the southern Appalachian Mountains
• Local
  rain totals reached 1.50 inches in Missouri, Illinois, southern Ohio and from West Virginia into southwestern Pennsylvania, according to Doppler radar
• Rain
  also developed Sunday in the southeastern states where moisture totals varied from 0.30 to 1.24 inches
• The
  Delta reported less than 0.26 inch of moisture and much of the far southern and northern Plains were left dry
• Snow
  and rain also continued to impact the far western United States – especially in California, although the precipitation was much less than that reported last week
• Huge
  gains in snow water equivalencies and snowpack have occurred over the past ten days
  
• Big
  improvements in runoff potential are occurring, but snow totals are still well below the norm for this time of year
• Stormy
  weather will continue through the first half of this week and then drier weather will evolve for a while.
  
• U.S.
  weather forthcoming
• Sunday’s
  rain and snow event in the Midwest and middle Atlantic Coast states will diminish today except in the northeastern U.S. where snow will linger into Tuesday morning
• Additional
  snowfall will be greatest from northeastern West Virginia through eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey to New England with 8-15 inches of new accumulations
• A
  new storm system will come across the northern Plains Wednesday and into the Midwest Thursday and Friday resulting in more rain and snow from the heart of the Midwest into the middle and northern Atlantic Coast States
• Blizzard
  or near-blizzard conditions are expected in the western Great Lakes region Thursday into Friday with snowfall of 3 to 8 inches and local totals to 10 inches and wind speeds of 20 to 35 mph and a few gusts to 40
• Northern
  Plains’ snowfall will vary from a dusting to 3 inches with a couple of bands of greater snow in northwestern North Dakota and northeastern Montana and from northeastern Nebraska through southeastern South Dakota to central Nebraska where local totals to 6
  inches will result.
• Brief
  waves of snow will then march across the northern and central Plains and Midwest during the weekend and next week as each successive shot of cold air moves through the region
• Temperatures
  will turn colder than usual late this week and next week in the northern and central Plains, Midwest, Delta and Atlantic Coast States
• The
  cold will retreat mostly to the northern and central Plains and upper Midwest during the latter part of next week into mid-month while the eastern states warm to a more seasonable range
• Temperatures
  will be more seasonable elsewhere in the nation during these next two weeks
• Western
  U.S. stormy weather pattern is expected to diminish during mid- to late week this week through all of next week
• Coastal
  areas of the Pacific Northwest will continue wet during the first half of this week and then will begin to dry down thereafter
• Restricted
  precipitation will occur in hard red winter wheat production areas during the next two weeks, although totally dry weather is not likely
• A
  close watch on snow cover and extreme temperatures will be needed to ensure no risk of winterkill
• West
  and South Texas will not experience much rainfall for the next ten days
• Cold
  air will begin pooling in northern Canada early this week and will surge southward across Canada’s Prairies and into the northern U.S. Plains during the second half of the week
• This
  cold surge will last for about ten days with varying degrees of intensity
• Some
  of the cold will briefly seep through the Rocky Mountains and into the far western United States
• Some
  of the cold air will eventually sweep into the Midwest and Atlantic Coast states, but not this weekend and on into the week of February 8
  
• U.S.
  and southwestern Canada wheat areas should get some snow to help protect against the late week cold surge, but a close watch on its distribution and significance is warranted since temperatures will fall below the damage threshold for unprotected winter wheat
• U.S.
  hard red winter wheat production areas will lose snow cover this week due to warmer temperatures and will need snow back again before the arctic outbreak begins
• Some
  of the needed snow should fall before there is any serious concern over crop conditions
• Soil
  moisture remains excessive in parts of the U.S. southeastern states and weather in the next ten days will perpetuate the wet bias in some areas
• U.S.
  Delta precipitation will occur often enough to keep soil moisture plentiful
• Drought
  in the western United States has not been seriously changed by recent precipitation, although California has seen enough moisture for improved topsoil conditions and has potential for better water supply in the spring as snow melts and runoff begins
• Northern
  Russia will experience bitter cold weather later this week and on into next week
• Early
  indications suggest no winterkill will result because of sufficient snow cover that will be present
  
• Southern
  Russia and Ukraine will be closely monitored for snow cover if the cold reaches that far to the south
• Snow
  cover is expected to decrease across parts of southeastern Europe for a little while week, including Ukraine and a part of Russia’s Southern Region
  
• Cooling
  during the weekend and next week allowing some snow cover to return prior to any bitter cold temperatures settling into these areas keeping the potential for winterkill minimal
• Flood
  potentials are high in parts of western Europe and the eastern Adriatic Sea nations where frequent rain of significance has been occurring over multiple weeks
• Less
  precipitation is expected over this coming week to help reduce some of the flood potential
• France,
  Germany, the U.K. and northern Spain are among the most vulnerable western nations for flooding – if a more significant storm system evolves before needed drying occurs
• North
  Africa dryness is mostly confined to southwestern Morocco and areas from near the Morocco/Algeria border into northwestern Algeria
• These
  areas will remain dry biased through Wednesday, but crops are semi-dormant which limits the need for moisture until seasonal warming begins.
  
• Some
  rain will evolve late this week and into the weekend in all of Morocco resulting in a notable boost in soil moisture that may improve crop conditions
• Northern
  Tunisia and Algeria will receive limited rainfall until the middle part of next week
• South
  Africa will receive widespread rain during the next seven days further ensuring good production potentials for its summer crops
• Northern
  Cape, far western North West and Free State will experience the least amount of rain, but may experience some improved rainfall next week
• Far
  northern and central India may receive some welcome showers during the second half of this week and into the weekend
  
• Most
  of India’s winter crops will reproduce over the next few weeks and timely rain is needed to induce the best yields
• Rain
  expected late this week will occur mostly from Punjab and Uttar Pradesh through southeastern Madhya Pradesh to West Bengal and Bangladesh and resulting rainfall will be light
• The
  precipitation will occur mostly in the north late this workweek and then advance to the southeast during the weekend
• Very
  little precipitation of significance occurred during the weekend, although one location in northern Odisha received 0.30 inch 
  
• Queensland,
  Australia’s sorghum and cotton areas need significant rain along with most of its livestock region, but precipitation will be restricted over the next week to ten days
• Crop
  conditions are better than they were last year at this time, but drought remains in Queensland’s central and south
  
• There
  have been some beneficial rain events in southeastern Queensland this summer, but greater moisture is needed to induce the best possible cotton and sorghum production
  
• Sugarcane
  areas along the upper coast are rated favorably
• Rain
  will evolve briefly tonight and Monday in both New South Wales and Queensland
  
• Another
  chance for showers and thunderstorms will occur late this week and into the weekend
• No
  general soaking is expected, but the precipitation will be favorable eventually
• New
  South Wales, Australia summer crop areas have received some rain recently and a little more is expected
• the
  moisture will continue to supplement irrigation and support cotton and sorghum in the state, although greater rain might still be welcome
• China
  wheat and rapeseed are favorably rated and expected to perform well in the spring.
  
• There
  is no threatening cold weather for the next two weeks and sufficient precipitation will fall to maintain status quo conditions
• Bitter
  cold is expected in the Northeast Provinces, but winter wheat is not produced significantly in that region
• West
  Africa rainfall will remain mostly confined to coastal areas while temperatures in the interior coffee, cocoa, sugarcane, rice and cotton areas are in a seasonably warm range for the next ten days
• Some
  rain will fall in a few coastal areas during the coming week, but most of the precipitation will stay far from coffee and cocoa production areas
• There
  is potential for a few of the showers to reach northward into coffee and cocoa production areas this weekend and early next week, but resulting rainfall should be light
• East-central
  Africa rainfall will continue limited in Ethiopia as it should be at this time of year while frequent showers and thunderstorms impact Tanzania.
• Kenya
  and Uganda will receive some infrequent rainfall over the next ten days
• Southern
  Oscillation Index weakened during the weekend and this trend will continue this week
• Today’s
  SOI was +15.40 today and the index will continue slowly declining this week
• Southeast
  Asia weather is not likely to change much over the coming week
• Mainland
  areas have been and will continue to be mostly dry
• Philippines
  rainfall will be erratic and mostly light, but it may increase somewhat during the next ten days
• Indonesia
  and Malaysia rainfall has been erratic, but sufficient in maintaining a very good crop development environment
• No
  excessive rain occurred recently, and little is anticipated for a while
• Some
  heavy rain fell in the Lesser Sunda Islands in southern Indonesia during the weekend
• Southeastern
  Mexico will get most of the rain periodically during the next ten days
• The
  precipitation will be erratic and mostly light, but still welcome wherever it occurs
• Many
  areas in Mexico are still dealing with long term drought
• Central
  America precipitation will continue greatest along the Caribbean Coast while the Pacific Coast is relatively dry
• Canada
  Prairies will be cooler than usual during the next two weeks and periodic precipitation is expected
• The
  greatest cool off is expected in the second half of this week through early next week when bitter cold conditions are expected
  
• Most
  of the precipitation will be light
• Southeast
  Canada will experience near average temperatures this week with some brief periods of precipitation expected

Source:
World Weather Inc. and FI

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Monday,
Feb 1:

• USDA
  weekly corn, soybean, wheat export inspections, 11am
• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• Malaysia
  Jan 1-31 palm oil export data from AmSpec (tentative)
• China
  starts trading peanut futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange
• U.S.
  DDGS production, soybean crush, 3pm
• Australia
  Commodity Index
• Ivory
  Coast cocoa arrivals
• HOLIDAY:
  Malaysia

Tuesday,
Feb 2:

• U.S.
  Purdue Agriculture Sentiment
• New
  Zealand global dairy trade auction
• U.S.
  corn for ethanol, 3pm

Wednesday,
Feb 3:

• EIA
  weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• New
  Zealand Commodity Price

Thursday,
Feb 4:

• FAO
  World Food Price Index; cereals supply/demand brief
• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports

Friday,
Feb 5:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• China’s
  CNGOIC to publish soybean and corn reports
• Statcan
  reports on wheat, soy, durum, canola and barley stockpiles in Canada

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

Macros

 

 

Corn.

• Corn
  futures were higher after China overtook Mexico as top US corn buyer later last week. 
  
• We
  raised our US corn exports by 100 to 2.700 billion bushels, lowering the carryout by 100 to 1.406 million versus 1.552 billion for USDA.  We may reduce US corn for feed for Q3 and Q4 for 2021-22. 
  
• $5.5575
  is the new March contract high.  $5.60 is seen as the next resistance level. 
  
• US
  crop insurance pricing starts today, lasting through the end of the month. 
  
• China
  may easily import more corn that their current TRQ in 2021.  All the corn reported this week is for 2020-21 delivery.  We think China will be pushing back some of those commitments to 2021-22, but we raised US exports anyway. 
  
• November
  US ethanol output was near expectations – No change to our 5.000 bil bu corn crush.  USDA @ 4.950 billion versus 4.852 billion 2019-20. 
  

 

Corn
Export Developments

·        
WASHINGTON, January 29, 2021–Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture the follow activity:

–Export
sales of 125,730 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2020/2021 marketing year

–Export
sales of 110,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Japan during the 2020/2021 marketing year;

 

 

 

Soybean
complex.  

• Overnight
  most of the CBOT ag markets were higher but the complex turned lower.  We saw 24-hour sales reported this morning that could limit downside risk.  Note the Brazilian trucker strike started today. 
  
• Malaysian
  was on holiday for Federal Territory Day.  AmSpec reported a 36 percent decline in palm oil exports for the month of January from December at 1.090 million tons.  ITS reported a 37 percent decline in January palm shipments from December. 
  
• India
  lowered their import duty on soybean oil and sunflower oil to 15% from 35%, and CPO palm oil to 15 percent from 27.5 percent.  But they imposed a 17.5% “cess” – a separate tax – on the imports.  The cess would provide resources for “an immediate need to improve
  agricultural infrastructure.  Some think imports of CPO could slow into India. 
  
• Brazil’s
  2020-21 soybean crop harvest stood at 1.9% through Jan. 28, slowest pace in ten years-AgRural.  2.5 million tons were collected versus 11.7 million tons at the same time last year.
• Argentina
  will see good weather over the next week.  Northeastern Brazil will continue to see dry conditions.   
  
• Argentina’s
  farm exports rose 32.63% year-on-year in January-CIARA-CEC chamber of crushers and exporters.
• After
  the close NASS is due out with the November US crush and traders are looking for 193.6 million bushels versus 191.0 during November and SBO stocks at 2.223 billion versus 2.119 at the end of November. 
  
• Reuters
  noted Canada is running short of canola six months before the next harvest, driven by strong export demand. Canadian farmers may expand plantings by 6% this spring.
  
• Strategie
  Grains raised their forecast for rapeseed imports into the European Union and Britain by 800,000 tons to a record 6.7 million tons.  EU rapeseed stocks at the end of the 2020/21 season on June 30 were expected to be very low. 
  
• Offshore
  values are leading the CBOT soybean oil nearly flat and meal $2.70 lower. 
  
• Malaysian
  palm oil futures:  Holiday – Federal Territory Day
• China
  cash crush margins were 167 cents on our calculation, compared to 171 at the end of last week and to 84 year ago.
  
• China

 

 

November
soybean oil use for biodiesel fell below expectations at 683 million pounds, but that is up from 527 million year earlier.  We were looking for 709 million pounds.  U.S. production of biodiesel was 151 million gallons in November 2020. 9 million gallons lower
than production in October 2020. There was a total of 1,130 million pounds of feedstocks (FI est. 1181) used to produce biodiesel in November 2020, up from 979 million pounds November 2019.  We are going to maintain our 8.050 billion pound soybean oil use
for biodiesel estimate, below USDA’s 8.200 estimate and above 7.858 billion used in 2019-20. 

 

 

Oilseeds
Export Developments

·        
South Korea’s KFA bought 60,000 tons of soybean meal at $503.95 a ton c&f for shipment from South America between June 1 and July 1.  On Friday
South
Korea’s MFG bought about 60,000 tons of soybean meal at $501.95/ton c&f for arrival around Aug. 

·        
Egypt’s GASC seeks at least 30k soybean oil and 10k sunflower oil on Feb 2 for March 10-30 arrival. 

·        
WASHINGTON, January 29, 2021–Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture the follow activity:

–Export
sales of 133,000 metric tons of soybean meal for delivery to the Philippines during the 2020/2021 marketing year.

 

Wheat

• US
  wheat was mostly lower as the USD was up 24 points.
• China
  sold 2.187 million tons of wheat out of auction making January sales total around 12 million tons if you count this auction with other January state sales.  The 2,187,297 tons of wheat represented 54.34% of total offered.  It was done at an average price at
  2,373 yuan ($367.46) per ton. 
• Russia
  exported 32.422 million tons of grain from July 1, 2020, to January 25, 2021, which was 20.4% more than the 26.92 million tons the previous year – Center for Agro-analytics.  During the period, wheat exports totaled 27.3 million tons, a rise of 20.8%; barley
  was 3.6 million tons, an increase of 41%; corn was 1.2 million tons, a decline of 20.7%; and other grain crops were 300,000 million tons, growth of 47.6%.  (Reuters)
• (Reuters)
  – Russian wheat export prices fell for the second consecutive week. 12.5% protein Black Sea for Feb. 15 and Feb. 28 was at $293 a ton free on board (FOB) at the end of last week, down $3 from the previous week – IKAR.
  
• On
  Saturday there was a news article talking about Russia could impose a formula based wheat export tax from June 1.  We thought this might be in the works as they tame domestic food inflation.  What this could lead to is higher North America wheat exports during
  the summer months, if global prices continue to rise into new-crop.  Previously Russia set a 25 euros ($30) per ton tax for Feb. 15 to 28, rising to 50 euros per ton from March 1 to June 30. 
  
• Ukrainian
  Black Sea ports have restricted grain loading operations due to poor weather. 
  
• Ukraine
  used 74.3% of its 17.5 million ton wheat exports quota for the 2020-21 season, with wheat exports amounting to 13 million tons as of Feb. 1, down almost 2.9 million tons from the same date a season ago.
• EU
  March milling wheat was down 1.75 at 225.25 euros.
• Parts
  of the river Rhine in south Germany were closed to shipping on Monday from high water levels. 
  

 

Export
Developments.

• Jordan
  is in for another 120k wheat on Feb 3 and 120k barley on Feb 2. 

 

Rice/Other

·        
Iraq seeks 30,000 tons of rice on Feb 3, valid until Feb 10, optional origin. 

·        
Syria is in for 25,000 tons of rice on February 9.