PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

US
Fed meets today. Traders are looking for a 25-point rate hike on Wednesday. Global economic concerns are pressuring many commodities this morning. The USD turned lower, WTI crude oil lower and US equity futures now higher. Soybeans and products are lower this
morning after seeing a large rally on Monday. Losses could be limited for soybeans from the slow start to Brazil’s soybean harvest.  5 percent had been collected as of last Thursday, half the pace at this time last year. Soybean meal is seeing some light technical
correction after prices traded near an 8-year high yesterday. CBOT corn and wheat are lower from weakness in US energy markets and widespread commodity selling. 

 

 

 

Weather

The
US weather forecast is unchanged. Part of the lower US will see widespread precipitation this week, including southeastern OK, and central/eastern TX today through Thursday, before drying down. The Midwest will see a winter storm bias ECB. Brazil will see
rain, delaying soybean harvest progress.  Rain will fall across Argentina’s La Pampa today, and Cordoba, Buenos Aires, south Santa Fe, south Entre Rios Wed-Fri. Dry Sat.

 

Map

Description automatically generated

 

World
Weather, INC.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR JANUARY 31, 2023

  • Argentina
    rainfall will be restricted in the next two weeks, although totally dry weather is unlikely
    • Northeastern
      areas will be driest and will experience little to no rain for ten days
    • Western
      and southern crop areas will get some rain Wednesday into Thursday with 0.40 to 1.50 inches and locally more resulting
  • Brazil
    will continue to see restricted rain in the far south and northeast for a while longer while rain occurs in most other areas
    • Some
      areas of center west and southern parts of center south Brazil will continue a little too wet with a need for drying
  • U.S.
    hard red winter wheat areas will not see much moisture outside of Oklahoma and north-central Texas for a while
  • U.S.
    Delta and southeastern states will experience frequent precipitation over the next ten days keeping the ground wet
  • U.S.
    northern Plains and Canada’s Prairies will see restricted precipitation for a while longer
  • Another
    bout of cold air will reach North America Wednesday into Friday, but no crop damaging cold is expected in any key wheat production region
  • North
    Africa still needs greater rain in Tunisia and southwestern Morocco, but drying is likely for a while
  • No
    threatening cold is expected in Europe or Asia over the next ten days
  • Rain
    will develop in China’s rapeseed region later in the coming week to ten days maintaining good soil moisture
  • India
    winter crops will need greater rainfall in February to support the best production potential
  • Eastern
    Australia rainfall will be erratic, but there will be some benefit to unirrigated sorghum and cotton

Source:
World Weather and FI

 

Bloomberg
Ag calendar

Tuesday,
Jan. 31:

  • Malaysia’s
    January palm oil export data
  • EU
    weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
  • US
    cattle inventory, 3pm
  • US
    agricultural prices paid, received, 3pm

Wednesday,
Feb. 1:

  • EIA
    weekly US ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
  • USDA
    soybean crush, DDGS production, corn for ethanol, 3pm
  • HOLIDAY:
    Malaysia

Thursday,
Feb. 2:

  • USDA
    weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports

Friday,
Feb. 3:

  • FAO
    World Food Price Index
  • FAO
    Cereal Supply and Demand Brief
  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

Macros

OPEC:
January Oil Output Falls By 50,000 BPD From December To 28.87 Million BPD, Led By Iraq – Reuters Survey

Bound
Members Comply With 172% Of Pledged Cuts In January (Vs. 161% In December)

Bound
Members Undershoot Jan Output Target By 920,000 Bpd (Vs. 780,000 Bpd Shortfall In Dec)

 

US
Employment Cost Index Q4: 1.0% (exp 1.1%; prev 1.2%)

Canadian
GDP (M/M) Nov: 0.1% (exp 0.1%; prev 0.1%)

Canadian
GDP (Y/Y) Nov: 2.8% (exp 2.7%; 3.1%)

 

 

Corn

·        
CBOT corn

is
lower from weakness in US energy markets and widespread commodity selling. Macro-economic news due out later today will be of interest. Some are citing the lower trade in commodities on US and China economic concerns. The US Fed may increase interest rates
by 25 points on Wednesday. 

·        
Anec sees Brazil corn exports reaching 4.991 million tons during January, down from 5.200 previous forecast.

·        
(Reuters) – China’s sow herd increased by 0.6% in December from November to 43.9 million sows, data published by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs showed on Tuesday.  The herd was also 1.4% larger than a year ago,
the data showed.  China’s pig herd increased by 1.9% in December from the month before to 452.6 million pigs, according to the data, and was 0.7% larger than the previous year.

·        
Romania reported a bird flu outbreak, H5N1, on a farm in the center of the country. 42,154 birds were infected.

·        
A handful of companies are exploring ethanol that could be used as SAF. If successful, they may combine resources and build out a pilot facility in 2024, then a large plant by 2028. The SAF might be able to fly more than 50,000
flights.  Bloomberg carried this story, citing Blue Blade Energy.

·        
USDA US corn export inspections as of January 26, 2023, were 527,932 tons, below a range of trade expectations, below 728,792 tons previous week and compares to 1,035,979 tons year ago. Major countries included Mexico for 159,997
tons, China for 138,458 tons, and Japan for 104,013 tons.

·        
MARATHON PETROLEUM- MARTINEZ RENEWABLE FUELS FACILITY ON TRACK TO REACH PHASE I PRODUCTION CAPACITY OF 260 MLN GALLONS PER YR OF RENEWABLE FUELS BY Q1 2023 END – Reuters News

 

 

 

Export
developments.

·        
Egypt seeks yellow corn on Feb 1 for Feb 20-Mar 10 shipment.

 

Soybeans

·        
Soybeans and products are lower this morning after seeing a large rally on Monday. Losses could be limited for soybeans from the slow start to Brazil’s soybean harvest.  5 percent had been collected as of last Thursday, half the
pace at this time last year. Soybean meal is seeing some light technical correction after prices traded near an 8-year high yesterday. Argentina crushers are still having problems with securing soybeans, and Oil World looks for February and March crush to
fall below expectations. Argentina soybean meal cash increased 7 percent during January to around $580/ton.

·        
Argentina will see limited precipitation over the next two weeks. Recent rains were welcome but not enough rain occurred to end the drought.

·        
A Reuters poll looks for the NASS crush to come in at 188.0 million bushels, down from 189.4 million bushels in November, and well below the December 2021 crush of 198.2 million bushels. U.S. soyoil stocks as of Dec. 31 were estimated
at 2.249 billion lbs., up from 2.108 billion at the end of November and the highest since end of June, and below stocks totaling 2.466 billion lbs. at the end of December 2021.

·        
Anec sees Brazil soybean exports reaching 1.222 million tons during January, down from 1.356 previous forecast. Soybean meal is seen at 1.437 million versus 1.521 previous.

·        
Indonesia looks to start its B35 mandate on Feb 1.

·        
AmSpec reported January Malaysian palm oil exports at 1.066 million tons, down from 1.457 million in December, a 26.8 percent decrease. ITS reported a 27 percent decline to 1.134 million tons. SGS reported 1.113 million tons,
down 26.4 percent.

·        
Malaysia April palm futures declined 121 ringgit to 3815 and cash was off $32.50/ton to $945/ton.  

·        
China soybeans fell 0.3%, meal up 0.8%, SBO down 0.2% and palm oil futures off 0.8%.

·        
Nearby Rotterdam vegetable oils
were
mixed from early yesterday morning. Rotterdam meal was mostly 2-6 euros higher.

·        
Offshore values were leading SBO lower by about 108 points this morning and meal $6.10 short ton
lower.

·        
USDA US soybean export inspections as of January 26, 2023, were 1,855,293 tons, within a range of trade expectations, above 1,838,717 tons previous week and compares to 1,417,802 tons year ago. Major countries included China for
1,409,492 tons, Taiwan for 102,761 tons, and Indonesia for 93,818 tons.

 

 

Reuters
estimates above…

 

 

Export
Developments

·        
Egypt is in for vegetable oils today for Feb 25-Mar 3 shipment. Lowest offer for sunflower oil was $1,199.40 per ton c&f for 10,000 tons. The lowest offer presented for soyoil at the tender was $1,300 per ton c&f for either 12,000
or 19,000 tons, with payment at sight, they added.

·        
The CCC seeks 3,770 tons of vegetable oils on February 1 for last half March shipment.

 

Wheat

·        
US wheat is lower on widespread commodity selling and US storms replenishing soil moisture levels. Not all winter wheat areas will see rain over the next week.

·        
Last week China sold 140,066 tons of wheat from reserves at 2,961 yuan per ton.

·        
Paris March wheat was 2.25 euros lower earlier at 285.25 per ton. 

·        
USDA US all-wheat export inspections as of January 26, 2023, were 445,433 tons, within a range of trade expectations, above 349,393 tons previous week and compares to 376,744 tons year ago. Major countries included Japan for 98,381
tons, Mexico for 63,767 tons, and Thailand for 58,143 tons.

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Algeria is in for wheat today, open until Wed, for three periods between Feb. 16-28, March 1-15 and March 16-31.

·        
Egypt seeks wheat on Feb 2 for late Feb through March 20 shipment.  They seek the wheat within the framework of the Food Security and Resilience Support Program funded by the World Bank under Loan No. EG -9399 with at sight financing.
The tender is for a quantity of 30,000, 40,000, 50,000, 55,000 or 60,000 tons, +/- 5% should the seller choose, from the last crop for supply C&F (cost and freight). (Reuters)

·        
Jordan bought 60,000 tons of wheat for LH June shipment at $336.50 c&f.

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of feed barley on Feb 1 for May and June shipment.

 

Rice/Other

·        
(Reuters) – Thailand exported 7.69 million tons of rice in 2022, up 22.1% from a year earlier, the commerce ministry said on Tuesday.  The exports exceeded a target of 7.5 million tons with top markets being Iraq, South Africa,
China and the United States, it said in a statement.

·        
(Reuters) The state purchasing agency in Mauritius has issued an international tender to buy 6,000 tons of long grain white rice sourced from optional origins, European traders said on Tuesday.  The rice was sought for delivery
between March 15 and June 15. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is Feb. 10.

 

 

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