FI Morning Grain Comments 01/05/23

PDF attached

 

Good
morning

 

No
USDA 24-H posted at the time this was written

 

US
jobless claims came in lower than expected and US stocks moved lower. US payroll figures are due out on Friday. WTI crude oil is rebounding, and USD is up more than 60 points. Natural gas futures are lower from a medium-term weather outlook calling for no
threatening cold temperatures for North America. Lower natural gas prices are welcomed by ethanol and crush producers.
Soybeans and meal are lower on ongoing global economic headwinds and higher USD. Soybean oil share is rebounding from higher soyoil. Grains are mixed on lack of fresh news for corn (lower) and technical buying in wheat.

 

 

Weather

Argentina’s
weather forecast again turned slightly negative than that of yesterday. Mostly dry weather is seen through Monday. Brazil’s Mato Grosso, Goias, Bahia, Minas, northeast MGDS, and Sao Paulo will see rain through Monday. Parts of center-south Brazil will see
too much rain though mid next week. Rio Grande do Sul will dry down through the middle of next week. Additional areas of the US upper Midwest will see snow/rain today, and southwestern areas of the Midwest Saturday. The Great Plains and WCB will trend drier
through Monday. Eastern and central TX will see rain this weekend.

 

 

 

 

 

 

World
Weather, INC.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR JANUARY 5, 2023

• Southern
  Brazil and Argentina will experience net drying for the next six days
• Rain
  is expected in Argentina and southern Brazil during the middle to latter part of next week, although no general soaking is likely
• Pockets
  of improved topsoil moisture are possible, but greater rain will still be needed
• Argentina
  and southern Brazil will be very warm to hot Friday through Tuesday of next week and then will slowly cool from west to east during the latter part of next week
• Central
  and northern California and Oregon will be impacted by frequent waves of heavy rain, mountain snow and strong wind speeds along the coast through the next ten days
• Substantial
  amounts of rain are expected especially in northern California and in southwestern Oregon where 10.00 to 15.00 inches of rain and possibly more may occur by Jan. 18
• Flooding
  is expected
• Impressive
  mountain snow is likely in the northern Sierra Nevada as well which may lead to improved water supply in the spring after the snow melts
• Western
  U.S. hard red winter wheat production areas will not get significant precipitation for the next ten days
• Midwest
  precipitation will be periodic over the next two weeks with frequent storms expected that are of weak intensity
• Europe
  will remain warm biased over the next two weeks and waves of precipitation are expected
• Cold
  weather in the western CIS Friday into the weekend is unlikely to result in any serious threat to winter crops due to snow that falls today and Friday ahead of the cold
• Eastern
  Australia will receive some needed moisture during the middle to latter part of next week and in southeastern parts of the nation possibly near and after mid-month
• North
  Africa rainfall will continue erratic and light in this first week of the outlook while the second week becomes a little wetter in parts of the region
• Rain
  is needed throughout North Africa

Source:
World Weather INC

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Thursday,
Jan. 5:

• Census
  Trade Balance
• EIA
  weekly US ethanol inventories, production
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• Malaysia’s
  Jan. 1-5 palm oil exports

Friday,
Jan. 6:

• FAO
  Food Price Index
• Net-export
  sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

Macros

US
Initial Jobless Claims: 204K (est 225K, prevR 223K) 

US
Continuing Claims: 1694K (est 1728K, prev 1718K)

US
Trade Balance Nov: -61.5Bln (est -$63Bln, prev -$78.2Bln)

Canada
Trade Balance C$: -0.04Bln (est 0.61Bln, prevR 0.13Bln)

 

 

Corn

·        
CBOT corn futures
turned
lower near the end of the electronic close on lack of fresh news.

·        
Argentina producers sold 75.7% of their corn crop, leaving almost 15 million tons held by producers.

·        
A Bloomberg poll looks for weekly US ethanol production to be up 2,000 thousand barrels to 965k (940-995 range) from the previous week and stocks up 7,000 barrels to 24.643 million.

·        
The USDA Broiler Report showed eggs set in the US up 1 percent and chicks placed up 1 percent.  Cumulative placements from the week ending January 8, 2022, through December 31, 2022, for the United States were 9.79 billion. Cumulative
placements were up 2 percent from the same period a year earlier.

 

Export
developments.

·        
None reported

 

 

Soybeans

·        
CBOT soybeans are lower along with soybean meal. The surge in COVID cases in China and global economic concerns continue to weigh on soybeans. Oil share is recovering after soybean oil traded higher. Palm oil futures fell for
the second straight session but estimates calling for a decline in Malaysian palm stocks at the end of December limited losses.

·        
Net drying in southern Brazil and Argentina is seen over the next six days.

·        
Decatur, IL, soybean meal was up about $5.00/short ton and Gulf was also higher. The barge markets were also firm. Export demand to Europe could be pretty good.

·        
Argentine producers reportedly sold 80.1% of last year’s soybean crop, leaving about 9 million tons in farmers hands, held as a hedge against inflation.

·        
CBOT soybean registrations dropped 479 with ADM cancelling 229 in Quincy, Illinois, and 250 in Lincoln, Nebraska (250).

·        
ITS reported Malaysian palm oil exports during the 1-5 January period down nearly 70 percent from December 1-5.

·        
Palm oil inventories at the end of December are seen at their lowest level since August.

·        
March palm oil futures in Malaysian were down 79 ringgit to 4,090 and cash down $12.50/ton at $960.

·        
China soybean futures were down 0.7%, meal 1.2% lower, soybean oil off 1.0% and palm down 1.3%.

·        
Rotterdam vegetable oils were
unchanged to 15 euros lower from early yesterday morning. Rotterdam meal was 5.50-10.00 euros lower.

·        
Offshore values were leading SBO lower by about 23 points earlier this morning and meal $3.50 short ton
lower.

 

Export
Developments

·        
None reported

 

Wheat

·        
US wheat futures are mostly higher on technical buying after plunging the last two sessions.

·        
Bottom picking is seen after Chicago wheat after March futures traded around a 2-week low.

·        
Paris March wheat was 0.25 euro lower earlier at 298.75 euros a ton.

 

Export
Developments.

·        
Tunisia bought about 100,000 tons of optional origin soft milling wheat at $381.86/ton c&f. They are also in for 75,000 tons of barley and lowest offer was $319.05/ton c&f. The wheat is sought for shipment between Jan. 10 and
March 5, 2023, and barley between Jan. 10 and Feb. 28, 2023.

·        
Today the Philippines seek 110,000 tons of feed wheat for Feb-Mar shipment. They are also in for barley.

 

Rice/Other

·        
Results awaited: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. seeks 113,460 tons of rice on December 29 from the United States for arrival in South Korea in 2023 between Feb. 1 and June 30.