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Good
morning

We hope everyone had a safe and happy New Year.

 

New
month, new quarter, new year. Funds are pumping in money in many commodities. Easing concerns over the Omicron variant was noted. This morning the USD is 20 points higher, WTI crude oil lower, and US equities leading towards a higher open. Concerns over the
South American weather situation linger, which is supporting agriculture markets. China was on holiday, returning Tuesday. Jordan and Iraq are in for wheat early this week. OPEC+ meets on Tuesday and it is thought they will stick with its plan to increase
February production.

 

The
GFS model for South America is drier this morning while the European model suggests about unchanged from Friday’s outlook. Brazil saw rain over the weekend across the northern areas and spotty rain southern of southern MG and Sao Paulo. Argentina saw spotty
but beneficial rain over the weekend. Northern Cordoba western BA and La Pampa was mostly dry. Brazil will see rain over the next week, but the southern areas will see deficits while the north will be too wet for early harvesting in some areas. Argentina will
see variable rain, but the greatest concern are hot temperatures keeping the dry areas dry from evaporation during rain events. Looking forward, a ridge of high pressure is expected to build up across Argentina after day ten of the forecast (around January
12-13) and prevail through mid-month which may lead to drier and warmer weather for Argentina, southern Brazil, Uruguay and Paraguay. The US southern Great Plains will see limited precipitation and cold temperatures this week.

 

After
the close USDA NASS will be out with the US November crush and corn for ethanol use. The weekly Commitments of Traders report will be released today at 2:30 pm CT.

 

 

 

Weather

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World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR JANUARY 3, 2022

  • Some
    wheat damage may have occurred in U.S. hard red winter wheat areas during the weekend due to limited snow cover and bitter cold conditions.
    • Another
      bout of similar conditions may occur late this week after what snow is present today melts.
    • There
      is some potential for more snow in northern areas before the coldest air arrives.
  • Cold
    is also expected in the U.S. Midwest and eastern states of the U.S. late this week and into the weekend, but it will be short lived with the second week of the forecast trending warmer in much of the United States.
  • Brazil
    will begin seeing showers and thunderstorms in the drier areas of the south this week and sufficient rain is expected to offer some relief from persistent dryness.
  • Northern
    Brazil is expecting frequent rain that will be abundant to excessive at times raising concern over crop conditions and slowing crop maturation and harvesting.
    • However,
      harvesting will advance around the precipitation from Mato Grosso to Parana and Sao Paulo where most of the early season soybeans are produced.
  • Argentina
    was excessive hot during the weekend in the north with highest temperatures of 100 to 111 and a few readings a little higher
  • Argentina
    during the weekend in central parts of the nation helped to temper some of the heat, but dryness is still common and a general soaking rain is still needed for most of the nation
    • Rain
      is expected in Buenos Aires, northeastern La Pampa, far southern Cordoba and a few neighboring areas Sunday into next Monday, but until then the daily showers will be sporadic and mostly too light to counter evaporation
  • A
    high pressure ridge will develop over Argentina and Paraguay after day ten in the forecast cutting off the rain in Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay and far southern Brazil once again possibly through Jan. 18
  • Snow
    will continue to protect wheat in Russia and Ukraine, although no extreme cold is expected. Spain and Morocco still need greater rain as do a few areas in the Middle East.
  • India
    will get rain this week in the central, east and north favoring pre-reproductive winter crop development.
  • Southeastern
    Australia will trend wetter this week
  • South
    Africa experiences a mostly good mix of rain and sunshine. 
  • Southeast
    Asia palm oil, coconut, rice, sugarcane, coffee, citrus, cocoa and other crop areas in Indonesia, Philippines and Malaysia will see routinely occurring rainfall with a few localized areas of flooding