PDF attached

 

Happy
80th birthday mom!

 

Funds
were active Thursday in all three commodities.  Friday, we find more South Korean buying and USDA soybean sales announcements.  Soybean oil finding support on a possible US biodiesel relief package and rising SA vegetable cash prices.  This is supporting soybeans.

 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

 

UNITED
STATES

  • Today’s
    GFS model runs bring a tropical wave through the Gulf of Mexico next week that may or may not turn into a tropical cyclone, but its mere presence in the Gulf will help limit Gulf of Mexico moisture from streaming into the U.S. Midwest. That will not stop rain
    from falling, but it will help to make the greater rain a little more localized
  • All
    of the models are presenting rain to portions of the Midwest over the coming week and some of it is advertised to be heavy with portions of Iowa included
    • The
      European model suggests a part of southern Minnesota and northern Iowa along with eastern South Dakota may be missed by rain again
    • Precipitation
      in parts of Michigan, northeastern Indiana and northern Ohio is advertised to be light by the European model, as well
    • GFS
      moisture is being painted with a broad brush once again and caution is advised to not be surprised a week from now when the precipitation has not been as uniform as the GFS suggests
  • Texas
    may benefit from the possible tropical cyclone next week with landfall at the end of next week
    • Some
      of this moisture is poised to reach West Texas and that could help to generate some much needed moisture in many parts of Texas and also help keep the temperatures down too
  • GFS
    week two rainfall scattered erratically across key U.S. crop areas with some areas getting more rain than others, but the potential for rain periodically remains
  • GFS
    suggests improved monsoon flow will occur through the Rocky Mountains to the northern Plains as the month draws to a close
    • This
      was increased on the 06z model run relative to the previous model run

 

The
bottom line is still hard to get very excited about problems in key U.S. crop areas during the next two weeks. However, keep a close eye on the distribution of rainfall because some areas may be missed by some of the rain a little more often than others. No
widespread dryness problem is expected through the end of this month and corn pollination will likely complete relatively well. Soybeans will also move into August in mostly good shape, but there will be some pockets of dryness that will have to be closely
monitored.

 

 

EUROPE/BLACK
SEA

  • 06z
    GFS model run reduced some of the rain advertised for late next week and into the following weekend in northwestern Europe
    • Some
      of the reduction of rainfall was needed
  • The
    model run still suggests some improved opportunity for showers in the second week of the outlook as we discussed last evening
    • The
      rain that falls will not be a drought buster, but could offer a little relief for the U.K. and a few areas in France and Germany
    • Both
      the European and Canadian model runs only allow rain into the U.K. and leave France,  Belgium and Germany out of the rain through day ten
    • Most
      of the precipitation should occur in days 10-14, but it will not be a general soaking

 

 

RUSSIA
NEW LANDS

  • No
    theme changes were made overnight
    • A
      gradual breakdown of the high pressure ridge over the New Lands is expected next week and the showers and thunderstorms expected will be erratic and light initially, but may improve over time
      • Partial
        relief is expected, but no generalized heavy rain event is expected and several areas will continue in need of greater rain after the second week has come to an end

 

CHINA

  • Flooding
    rain is expected through the weekend from southeastern Sichuan, Guizhou northern Hunan to Jiangsu and far southern and eastern most Shandong
    • Rain
      totals of 4.00 to 12.00 inches and locally more will result; a few amounts to 15.00 inches will not be out of the realm of possibilities
  • Some
    heavy rain is also expected in North Korea and a few immediate neighboring areas of Liaoning and southern Jilin
  • Improved
    weather is expected in east-central China next week with flood water receding
  • Greater
    rain was suggested for northeastern China from Hebei to Heilongjiang during the July 27-30 period
    • Some
      of the rainfall was overdone

 

The
bottom line is a good mix of rain and sunshine for northern and far southern China over the next ten days, but this weekend’s excessive rain event will raise the potential for some crop damage in east-central parts of the nation; including southeastern Henan,
Jiangsu, northern Anhui and possible far southern Shandong. Improving weather will occur after the first part of next week for the flood ravaged areas.

 

 

AUSTRALIA

  • Beneficial
    rain fell in Western Australia overnight with some of the previously driest areas in the north and east part of the wheat, barley and canola production region getting some of the greater rainfall
    • Crops
      will respond well