PDF attached

 

 

Private
exporters reported sales of:

•            
396,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2021/2022 marketing year

•            
326,750 metric tons of soybeans received during the reporting period for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2021/2022 marketing year

•            
132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2021/2022 marketing year

 

Higher
trade across the board on technical buying.  The USD is lower and WTI higher.  Outside markets are supportive for the soybean products. NOPA is due out at 11:00 CT with US September soybean crush and the trade estimates are as low as 148 and high as 162.8
million bushels.  Paris wheat reached a 9-year high this week. 

 

 

Weather

7-day

 

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR OCTOBER 15, 2021

  • Vietnam
    will experience some significant rain and flooding this weekend.
    • Rainfall
      of 6.00 to more than 15.00 inches is expected and it would not be surprising to see local totals to nearly 20.00 inches.
  • Weather
    in Argentina will be trending a little drier over the next ten days after beneficial rain fell this week.
  • Brazil’s
    crop areas will all see periods of rain and sunshine during the next two weeks.
    • Southern
      parts of the nation will experience a drier than usual period next week, but only after significant rain falls today into Sunday. 
  • U.S.
    weather will improve this weekend and early next week with a restricted amount of rain likely.
    • Texas
      and neighboring areas will get some mid- to late-week rainfall that will shift to the Delta and southeastern states
    • A
      few showers will occur from South Dakota into Iowa and neighboring areas during the middle part of next week before passing through the Midwest late in the week.
    • Hard
      red winter wheat areas in the U.S. will see good planting and emergence conditions except in the far western high Plains where rain is needed.
    • Montana
      and central parts of Canada’s Prairies are still in a drought along with the far western United States. 
  • Central
    and northern India will turn wetter this weekend
  • Northern
    China will be dry biased over the coming week.
  • East-central
    China will trend wetter today and Saturday with follow up rain during mid- to late-week next week.
  • Rain
    in southeastern Europe is expected to end this weekend after excessive amounts of moisture occurred in some areas this past week
  • The
    middle and lower Volga River Basin in Russia remains dry biased and not much precipitation will occur over the next ten days.
  • Australia
    weather will stay almost ideal for winter crop development during the next ten days
  • South
    Africa will get some beneficial rain in summer crop areas. 

 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Friday,
Oct. 15:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of trader’s report (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of trader’s weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • U.S.
    monthly data on green coffee stockpiles
  • Malaysia
    Oct. 1-15 palm oil exports
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • HOLIDAY:
    India

Monday,
Oct. 18:

  • USDA
    export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
  • U.S.
    crop conditions – corn and cotton; soybeans harvested; winter wheat planted, 4pm
  • China’s
    second batch of trade data, including corn, wheat, sugar, pork imports
  • China
    3Q pork output and inventories
  • GrainCom
    conference, Geneva, day 1
  • Ivory
    Coast cocoa arrivals

Tuesday,
Oct. 19:

  • EU
    weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
  • New
    Zealand global dairy trade auction
  • S&P
    Global Platts European Sugar Virtual Conference, day 1
  • GrainCom
    conference, Geneva, day 2
  • HOLIDAY:
    Malaysia, Pakistan

Wednesday,
Oct. 20:

  • EIA
    weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production
  • China’s
    third batch of trade data, including soy, corn and pork imports by country
  • Malaysia
    Oct. 1-20 palm oil exports
  • S&P
    Global Platts European Sugar Virtual Conference, day 2
  • USDA
    total milk production, 3pm
  • GrainCom
    conference, Geneva, day 3
  • HOLIDAY:
    Indonesia

Thursday,
Oct. 21:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
  • International
    Grains Council monthly report
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • USDA
    red meat production, 3pm

Friday,
Oct. 22:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • U.S.
    cattle on feed; cold storage data for pork, beef and poultry, 3pm
  • HOLIDAY:
    Thailand

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

USDA
export sales

 

 

Macros

US
Empire State Manufacturing Index Oct: 19.8 (est 25.0, prev 34.3)

 

US
Retail Sales Advanced (M/M) Sep: 0.7% (est -0.2%; prevR 0.9%)


US Retail Sales ex Autos (M/M) Sep: 0.8% (est 0.5%; prevR 2.0%)


US Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas Sep: 0.7% (est 0.4%; prevR 2.1%)


US Retail Sales “Control Group” (M/M) Sep: 0.8% (est 0.5%; prevR 2.6%)

Volume
Of Russian Gas Pumped Through Ukraine To Europe Has Fallen Below Level Under Current Transit Contract –  RTRS Citing Ukraine

 

US
Import Price Index (M/M) Sep: 0.4% (est 0.6%; prev -0.3%)


US Export Price Index (M/M) Sep: 0.1% (est 0.7%; prev 0.4%)

 

 

Corn

·        
Corn
is
higher this morning on decent USDA export sales, strength in soybeans, and crude oil up nearly $1.00.  There are concerns the US 2022 corn area will be trimmed from high fertilizer prices.  Remember planting soybeans over soybeans is a little more unfavorable
than say, corn over corn.  We think normal crop rotation will be realized but some acres could shift to wheat and other feedgrains due to high corn input prices. 

·        
French corn harvest progress is slow with only 15 percent of the crop collected as of October 11, up 7 points from the week earlier and below 62 percent year ago. 

·        
The US Midwestern southern and eastern areas will see rain today.  Over the weekend it looks like mostly net drying. 

·        
Weekly US ethanol production rose 54,000 barrels, well more than trade expectations for a 7,000-barrel increase to 1.032 million barrels, after surging 64,000 barrels the week earlier.  Midwest PADD 2 increased 40,000 barrels
to 977,000 barrels.   US ethanol stocks decreased 84,000 barrels to 19.847 million, smallest inventory since May 28.  Ethanal production last week nearly match its 2018-19 level for this time of year and is highest since July 9, 2021.  Early September to date
US ethanol production is running 3.6% above the same period a year ago.  US gasoline stocks fell 241,000 barrels to 9.186 million, and gasoline demand is running about 1 percent below this time two years ago, but up about 6 percent from year earlier.  The
ethanol blend rate into finished motor gasoline was 93.1%, up from 92.4% previous week. 

·        
USDA FSA Acreage is delayed.  When updated, it will be posted here
https://www.fsa.usda.gov/news-room/efoia/electronic-reading-room/frequently-requested-information/crop-acreage-data/index

 

 

Export
developments.

  • None
    reported

 

Soybeans

·        
Soybeans are up more than 10 cents on technical buying.  Earlier this week soybeans fell below $12/bu but failed to generate a good amount of selling.  Light commercial buying might be in play after prices dropped earlier this
week.  Outside product markets are lending support to soybean oil and meal.  Higher WTI was lending support. 

·        
We see gains today and if any next week, to be limited on improving Brazilian weather that will promote soybean plantings during the second half of October. 

·        
NOPA is due out at 11:00 am CT. 

·        
A Reuters poll calls for the NOPA September US crush at 155.1 million bushels, down 2.4% from 158.8 million bushels processed in August and down 4% from September 2020.  Soybean oil stocks were pegged at 1.663 billion pounds,
down 0.3% from 1.668 billion at the end of August.  We are at the high end of a very large range at 162.8.  Lowest estimate was 148.0 million bushels. 

·        
Malaysian palm oil exports for the 1-15 period are running below the same period a month ago.  ITS reported an 18.4 percent decrease to 696,811 tons and AmSpec a 11 percent decrease (723,561 tons).  SGS reported a 16 percent decrease
to 704,463 tons. 

·        
Malaysian palm oil futures

·        
Rotterdam meal and oil values were higher (meal by 1-4 euros and vegetable oils by 15-20).

·        
Offshore values are leading soybean oil 3 points lower (175 higher for the week to date) and meal $1.70/short ton higher ($5.20 lower for the week).  

·        
China cash crush margins were last 206 cents/bu (219 previous) on our analysis versus 187 cents late last week and 97 cents around a year ago. 

·        
China

 

Export
Developments

  • Under
    the USDA 24-hour announcement system, private exporters reported sales of:
    • 396,000
      metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2021/2022 marketing year
    • 326,750
      metric tons of soybeans received during the reporting period for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2021/2022 marketing year
    • 132,000
      metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2021/2022 marketing year

 

Wheat

·        
US wheat is higher from again, dry weather expected for the US HRW wheat country and technical buying. Paris wheat reached a 9-year high this week.  The USD was 4 points higher as of 9 am CT. 

·        
USDA wheat export sales were above expectations. 

·        
December Paris wheat was 3.75 euros higher earlier at 274.25 euros a ton.

·        
China plans to start a new round of wheat auctions from state reserves, starting October 20. 

·        
US hard red winter wheat areas will trend drier for at least more than a week, good for harvest progress but bad for recently emerged wheat. 

 

 

Export
Developments. 

·        
Japan’s AgMin received no offers for feed wheat and barley for arrival by Feb 24. 

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of wheat on October 20.

·        
Turkey seeks 300,000 tons of wheat on Oct. 21 for shipment between Dec. 10 and Dec. 31. 

·        
Ethiopia seeks 300,000 tons of milling wheat on November 9.

 

Rice/Other

·        
Mauritius seeks 6,000 tons of white rice on October 26 for January 1-March 31 shipment. 

 

U.S. EXPORT SALES FOR WEEK ENDING  10/7/21

 





























 

CURRENT MARKETING YEAR

NEXT MARKETING YEAR

COMMODITY

NET SALES

OUTSTANDING SALES

WEEKLY EXPORTS

ACCUMULATED EXPORTS

NET SALES

OUTSTANDING SALES

CURRENT YEAR

YEAR
AGO

CURRENT YEAR

YEAR
AGO

 

THOUSAND METRIC TONS

WHEAT

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   HRW    

244.7

1,546.4

1,533.4

216.2

3,055.4

4,096.7

0.0

0.0

   SRW    

30.3

609.3

317.9

93.1

1,186.5

876.4

0.0

0.0

   HRS     

190.9

955.3

1,530.0

87.5

2,320.2

2,825.8

0.0

0.0

   WHITE   

101.8

592.5

1,450.0

62.1

1,588.2

1,876.9

0.0

0.0

   DURUM  

0.0

60.5

220.6

0.0

61.4

321.6

0.0

0.0

     TOTAL

567.6

3,764.0

5,051.9

458.9

8,211.6

9,997.4

0.0

0.0

BARLEY

0.0

24.5

33.2

0.0

5.7

8.9

0.0

0.0

CORN

1,039.9

24,206.3

22,010.1

918.1

3,414.8

4,492.9

3.6

336.9

SORGHUM

2.5

2,130.5

2,541.8

62.3

225.8

393.4

0.0

0.0

SOYBEANS

1,147.8

22,760.5

34,217.2

1,713.8

3,629.2

8,906.7

0.0

19.8

SOY MEAL

365.4

3,753.4

3,361.9

301.0

301.0

257.3

0.7

30.5

SOY OIL

19.8

104.5

159.8

0.5

0.5

18.4

0.0

0.0

RICE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   L G RGH

29.6

220.5

543.6

8.2

235.9

78.8

0.0

0.0

   M S RGH

0.0

7.5

26.5

0.2

1.7

2.4

0.0

0.0

   L G BRN

0.6

3.8

11.3

0.5

15.0

9.0

0.0

0.0

   M&S BR

0.1

54.3

23.0

0.1

14.1

25.4

0.0

0.0

   L G MLD

1.5

135.8

61.2

3.4

142.1

66.7

0.0

0.0

   M S MLD

2.1

68.1

98.4

3.6

72.6

72.1

0.0

0.0

     TOTAL

33.9

490.0

764.1

15.9

481.3

254.4

0.0

0.0

COTTON

 

THOUSAND RUNNING BALES      

   UPLAND

146.7

5,881.4

5,728.2

95.2

1,735.8

2,505.0

10.6

752.4

   PIMA

6.4

166.2

232.4

10.6

69.0

115.8

0.0

0.0

 

This summary is based on reports from exporters for the period October 1-7, 2021. 

Wheat:  Net sales of 567,600 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were up 70 percent from
the previous week and 42 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for the Philippines (142,000 MT), Mexico (127,800 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), Taiwan (49,600 MT), Nigeria (45,100 MT, including decreases of 1,700 MT), and El Salvador
(42,300 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for the Dominican Republic (6,500 MT).  Exports of 458,900 MT were down 16 percent from the previous week and 5 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Japan (125,800 MT),
Colombia (103,400 MT), China (68,000 MT), Nigeria (48,100 MT), and Taiwan (34,300 MT). 

Corn:  Net sales of 1,039,900 MT for 2021/2022 were down 18 percent from the previous
week, but up 85 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Mexico (790,200 MT, including decreases of 21,400 MT), Guatemala (102,600 MT, including 17,400 MT switched from Panama, 8,800 MT switched from unknown destinations, and decreases
of 2,500 MT), Japan (70,400 MT, including 28,300 MT switched from unknown destinations), Costa Rica (51,700 MT, including 12,900 MT switched from Nicaragua, 7,800 MT switched from Guatemala, and decreases of 5,500 MT), and Colombia (49,600 MT, including 33,000
MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 30,900 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for unknown destinations (53,100 MT) and Panama (26,700 MT).  Net sales of 3,600 MT for 2022/2023 resulting in increases for Costa Rica (3,900 MT), were
offset by reductions for Canada (400 MT).  Exports of 918,100 MT were down 6 percent from the previous week, but up 58 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico (365,900 MT), China (137,500 MT), Colombia (131,000 MT),
Honduras (56,800 MT), and Guatemala (56,700 MT). 

Optional Origin Sales:  For 2021/2022, new optional origin sales of 130,000 MT were
reported for unknown destinations.  The current outstanding balance of 300,000 MT is for unknown destinations. 

Barley:  No net sales or exports were reported for the week. 

Sorghum:  Total net sales of 2,500 MT for 2021/2022 were up 6 percent from the previous
week, but down 98 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destination reported was China.  Exports of 62,300 MT were up 30 percent from the previous week and 52 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were to China (59,900 MT) and Mexico
(2,400 MT).  

Rice:  Net
sales of 33,900 MT for 2021/2022 were down 54 percent from the previous week and 35 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for Mexico (29,600 MT), Canada (3,600 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), Guatemala (200 MT, including decreases
of 100 MT), the United Kingdom (200 MT), and Guam (100 MT).  Exports of 15,900 MT were down 74 percent from the previous week and 71 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Guatemala (5,700 MT), Canada (4,200 MT), Mexico
(3,200 MT), Saudi Arabia (700 MT), and Jordan (500 MT).  

Exports for Own Account: For 2021/2022, new exports for own account totaling 100 MT
were for Canada.  The current exports for own account outstanding balance is 100 MT, all Canada.  

Soybeans:  Net sales of 1,147,800 MT for 2021/2022 were up 10 percent from the previous
week and 9 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for China (640,000 MT, including 264,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 5,100 MT), Mexico (273,800 MT, including decreases of 600 MT), Egypt (102,500 MT, including
52,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), the Netherlands (68,000 MT, including 65,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 3,000 MT), and Bangladesh (57,400 MT, including 55,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), were offset by
reductions for unknown destinations (186,400 MT).  Exports of 1,713,800 MT were up 82 percent from the previous week and up noticeably from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to China (1,285,500 MT), Taiwan (71,500 MT), Mexico (68,900
MT), the Netherlands (68,000 MT), and Bangladesh (57,400 MT). 

Export for Own Account: For 2021/2022, the current exports for own account outstanding
balance is 5,800 MT, all Canada. 

Export Adjustments:  Accumulated
export of soybeans to the Netherlands were adjusted down 86,296 MT for week ending September 23rd.  The correct destination for this shipment is Germany.  
 

Soybean Cake and Meal:  Net sales of 365,400 MT for 2021/2022 primarily for Ecuador
(127,800 MT), Canada (74,600 MT, including decreases of 3,800 MT), the Philippines (51,100 MT), Colombia (43,700 MT, including 20,800 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 12,200 MT), and Guatemala (34,100 MT, including 9,600 MT switched from
Panama, 6,200 MT switched from El Salvador, 6,000 MT switched from Nicaragua, and decreases of 1,100 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for the United Kingdom (60,000 MT) and Panama (13,900 MT).  Total net sales for 2022/2023 of 700 MT were for Canada.  Exports
of 301,000 MT were primarily to Mexico (76,700 MT), Japan (63,700 MT), Colombia (33,000 MT), Ecuador (27,600 MT), and Guatemala (25,400 MT).   

Soybean Oil:  Net sales of 19,800 MT for 2021/2022 reported for Guatemala (15,100 MT),
Costa Rica (4,200 MT), Jamaica (3,000 MT), Nicaragua (1,500 MT), and El Salvador (1,200 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for Cameroon (2,500 MT) and Canada (2,200 MT). Exports of 500 MT were to Canada. 

Cotton:  Net sales of 146,700 RB for 2021/2022 were down 41 percent from the previous
week and 60 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Turkey (62,000 RB), Mexico (52,900 RB), China (12,100 RB, including decreases of 3,100 RB), Thailand (9,500 RB, including 400 RB switched from Indonesia), and Peru (5,800 RB), were
offset by reductions for Vietnam (2,200 RB), Honduras (1,700 RB), and Pakistan (1,700 RB).  Net sales of 10,600 RB for 2022/2023 resulting in increases for Mexico (15,000 RB), were offset by reductions for Turkey (4,400 RB).  Exports of 95,200 RB–a marketing-year
low–were down 24 percent from the previous week and 46 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico (23,400 RB), China (23,000 RB), Vietnam (11,300 RB), Bangladesh (9,500 RB), and Turkey (6,600 RB).  Net sales of Pima
totaling 6,400 RB–a marketing-year low–were down 53 percent from the previous week and 60 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for Peru (5,200 RB) and Bangladesh (1,100 RB).  Exports of 10,600 RB were up noticeably from the previous
week and up 91 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to India (6,800 RB), Peru (1,500 RB), South Korea (700 RB), Turkey (600 RB), and Italy (400 RB).  

Optional Origin Sales:  For 2021/2022, the current outstanding balance of 8,800 RB
is for Pakistan.   

Exports for Own Account:  For 2021/2022, the current exports for own account outstanding
balance of 4,800 RB is for China (4,700 RB) and Vietnam (100 RB). 

Hides and Skins:  Net
sales of 256,800 pieces for 2021 were down 55 percent from the previous week and 31 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (109,000 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 20,200 pieces), Thailand (57,200 whole cattle hides,
including decreases of 1,700 pieces), Mexico (35,500 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 900 pieces), South Korea (29,300 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 3,900 pieces), and Indonesia (19,100 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 200
pieces), were offset by reductions primarily for Brazil (200 pieces) and Japan (100 pieces).  Exports of 344,800 pieces were down 31 percent from the previous week and 7 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Whole cattle hide exports were primarily to China
(217,700 pieces), South Korea (48,000 pieces), Mexico (25,600 pieces), Thailand (19,200 pieces), and Brazil (17,500 pieces).   

Net sales of 54,100 wet blues for 2021 were down 68 percent from the previous week and 66 percent from
the prior 4-week average.  Increases reported for Italy (23,000 grain splits and 8,200 unsplit, including decreases of 14,700 unsplit and 100 grain splits), China (18,400 unsplit), Vietnam (5,000 unsplit, including decreases of 100 unsplit), and Brazil (100
unsplit), were offset by reductions for Thailand (400 unsplit) and Mexico (200 grain splits).  Total net sales of 13,200 wet blues for 2022 were for Italy.  Exports of 130,400 wet blues were down 1 percent from the previous week and 16 percent from the prior
4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to China (47,600 unsplit), Italy (30,700 unsplit and 7,800 grain splits), Vietnam (20,300 unsplit), Mexico (8,200 grain splits and 900 unsplit), and Thailand (7,600 unsplit).  Total net sales of 943,000 splits
were reported for China.  Exports of 166,200 pounds were to China (86,200 pounds) and Vietnam (80,000 pounds).
 

Beef:  Net
sales of 15,700 MT reported for 2021 were up 1 percent from the previous week, but unchanged from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for Japan (4,400 MT, including decreases of 800 MT), China (3,400 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), South
Korea (2,400 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), Taiwan (1,900 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and Mexico (1,700 MT, including decreases of 100 MT).  Net sales reductions of 300 MT for 2022 resulting in increases for Chile (500 MT) and Taiwan (300 MT),
were more than offset by reductions primarily for South Korea (1,000 MT).  Exports of 15,500 MT were down 1 percent from the previous week and 11 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Japan (4,400 MT), South Korea (3,800
MT), China (2,400 MT), Taiwan (1,200 MT), and Mexico (1,100 MT).     

Pork:  Net sales of 33,500 MT reported for 2021
were up 51 percent from the previous week and 9 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Japan (11,800 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), Mexico (8,200 MT, including decreases of 700 MT), China (4,300 MT, including decreases of 700
MT), South Korea (3,900 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and Canada (2,400 MT, including decreases of 600 MT), were offset by reductions for El Salvador (100 MT).   Exports of 29,700 MT were up 2 percent from the previous week, but down 2 percent from the
prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico (13,900 MT), China (4,000 MT), Japan (3,600 MT), Colombia (1,900 MT), and South Korea (1,800 MT).
  

 

Terry Reilly

Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds

Futures International
One Lincoln Center
18 W 140 Butterfield Rd.

Suite 1450

Oakbrook Terrace, Il. 60181

W: 312.604.1366

treilly@futures-int.com

ICE IM: 
treilly1

Skype: fi.treilly

 

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