PDF Attached
USDA released their March S&D report
Reaction: Initially supportive for the soybean complex and neutral for grains. Look for traders to shift focus on US March planting intentions and March 1 grain stocks.
USDA NASS briefing
https://www.nass.usda.gov/Newsroom/Executive_Briefings/index.php
USDA OCE Secretary’s Briefing
https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity-markets/wasde/secretary-briefing
USDA took US soybean exports up 25, crush down 10, and lowered product production accordingly. US corn exports were lowered 75 million bushels, more than expected. US wheat balance was unchanged.
US soybean stocks 210 vs. 225 last month (-15), -10 million vs. trade
US corn stocks 1342 vs. 1267 last month (75), 34 million vs. trade
US wheat stocks 568 vs. 568 last month (0), -5 million vs. trade
WLD soy stocks 100.0 vs. 102.0 last month (-2.0), -0.3 million vs. trade
WLD corn stocks 296.5 vs. 295.3 last month (1.2), 3.3 million vs. trade
WLD wheat stocks 267.2 vs. 269.3 last month (-2.1), -2.2 million vs. trade
Brazil Soy 153.0 vs. 153.0 last month (0), 0.1 million vs. trade
Arg. Soy 33.0 vs. 41.0 last month (-8), -3.7 million vs. trade
Brazil Corn 125.0 vs. 125.0 last month (0), 0.1 million vs. trade
Arg. Corn 40.0 vs. 47.0 last month (-7), -3.4 million vs. trade
Nothing earth shattering was seen for the USDA S&D update. USDA did take a little more aggressive stance on adjusting US corn exports, and Argentina corn & soybean production.
USDA’s 33.0 million ton soybean estimate and 40.0 million tons came in 3.7 and 3.4 million tons below trade expectations, respectively. Note many private estimates are using 25-28MMT for beans and 37-40 for corn. Look for USDA to lower Argentina production estimate next month. For Brazil, the soybean and corn estimates were unchanged. USDA may massage the Brazil estimates next month with the soybean harvest advances and second corn crop takes shape.
World soybean production was lowered 7.9 million tons to 375.2 million, still up 17 million tons from last crop year. World corn production was reduced 3.8 million tons to 1.148 billion, 68.5 million tons below 2021-22.
USDA made upward revisions for Brazil, Australia and India wheat production. Global wheat output was increased 5.1 million tons from the previous month to 783.8 million tons, but stocks were lowered 2.1 MMT from an increased in feed/food use and lower imports.
USDA increased US soybean exports by 25 million bushels to 2.015 billion, below 2.158 billion reported year ago. The US crush was lowered 10 million to 2.220 billion, only 16 million above last crop season. The lower crush was not that surprising. NOPA and NASS crush figures have been coming in below trade expectations, despite good crush margins. US soybean meal production and domestic use was lowered 100,000 short tons. USDA lowered US soybean oil production by 50 million pounds, increased domestic use by 150 (raised food by 150 million), and lowered SBO exports by a large 200 million pounds. USDA 2022-23 US soybean oil exports stand at only 500 million pounds. US soybean oil exports were estimated at 1.300 billion pounds back in November.
US corn exports were taken down 75 million bushels and over a two-month period are down 100 million. This is a little bearish for corn futures. US ending stocks for corn stand at 1.342 billion bushels, 34 million above an average trade guess and above 1.267 billion at the end of 2021-22. USDA did not make any other changes to the US corn demand categories. For the US balance sheet, there were no changes, including ending stocks by class.
Attached PDF includes FI snapshot
Price outlook:
May corn $6.00-$6.90
July corn $5.75-$7.00
Soybeans – May $14.50-$16.00
Soybean meal – May $430-$520
Soybean oil – May 56-62
Chicago – May $6.50-$7.75
KC – May $7.50-$9.25
MN – May $8.00-$9.75
| Terry Reilly Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds |
| Futures International One Lincoln Center 18W140 Butterfield Rd. Suite 1450 Oakbrook terrace, Il. 60181 |
| Work: 312.604.1366 ICE IM: treilly1 Skype IM: fi.treilly |
| treilly@futures-int.com
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Grain_Market_Snapshot030823.pdf