PDF Attached
USDA released their February S&D.
Reaction: Perceived bearish with corn and soybeans that were already trading higher pre report. Wheat on the other hand is seen supportive, for traders following global inventories. US corn stocks were well above trade expectations, but China remains the million dollar question with final current crop year imports.
Recall last S&D report CBOT corn traded limit higher. It hit session lows today 20 min post report. February USDA supply and demand report traditionally is a benign report. USDA made US demand adjustments this month to accommodate global trade flows, notably corn, despite no 2020-21 production changes for Argentina and Brazil corn and soybean estimates. Note overnight China left their corn and soybean S&D’s unchanged. But USDA has a differs view on China corn imports as they raised it by 6.5 million tons to a record 24 million tons.
Change tables below the text. Revised price ranges as well.
Major changes
China corn imports were upward revised 6.5 million tons to 24 million tons.
USDA upward revised US soybean exports by 20
US SBO for biodiesel use up 100
US corn exports up only 50
No change to US wheat (ALL) balance, but notable by class below
Big drop of 9.0 million tons for world wheat stocks
World corn stocks up 2.7MMT and soybeans down 1.0MMT.
USDA NASS executive summary
https://www.nass.usda.gov/Newsroom/Executive_Briefings/index.php
Updated FI price ranges
March corn is seen trading in a $5.30 and $6.00 range. (up 15, unch)
May corn is seen in a $5.15 and $6.00 range. (up 15, unch)
July is seen in a $5.00 and $6.00 range. (up 10, up 25)
December corn is seen in a $3.75-$5.50 range. (no change)
March soybeans are seen in a $13.50 and $15.00 range. (up 25, up 25)
March soymeal is seen in a $415 and $470 range. (up $5, dn $10)
March soybean oil is seen in a 44 and 47.00 cent range (up 150 & 200)
March Chicago wheat is seen in a $6.30‐$7.00 range. (down 5 & 15)
March KC wheat is seen in a $6.00‐$6.70 range. (no change)
March MN wheat is seen in a $6.00‐$6.55 range. (no change)
Terry Reilly
Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds
Futures International
One Lincoln Center
18 W 140 Butterfield Rd.
Oakbrook Terrace, Il. 60181
W: 312.604.1366
ICE IM: treilly1
Skype: fi.treilly
Trading of futures, options, swaps and other derivatives is risky and is not suitable for all persons. All of these investment products are leveraged, and you can lose more than your initial deposit. Each investment product is offered only to and from jurisdictions where solicitation and sale are lawful, and in accordance with applicable laws and regulations in such jurisdiction. The information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for independent research before making your investment decisions. Futures International, LLC is merely providing this information for your general information and the information does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision. The contents of this communication and any attachments are for informational purposes only and under no circumstances should they be construed as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation to buy or sell any future, option, swap or other derivative. The sources for the information and any opinions in this communication are believed to be reliable, but Futures International, LLC does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy of such information or opinions. Futures International, LLC and its principals and employees may take positions different from any positions described in this communication. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.
Grain_Market_Snapshot020921.pdf