FI Grain Comments 01/18/21 + Calls

PDF Attached

 

Calls:

Soybeans
unchanged to 3 lower

Soybean
meal $0.50-1.00 lower

Soybean
oil unchanged to 10 higher

Corn
1-4 higher

Chicago
wheat 2-5 higher

 

While
the US was on holiday Monday, EU milling wheat futures climbed 1.75 to 4.25 euros with nearby March at a 2013 high, and China corn futures appreciated to a record on strength in the domestic market.  Chinese corn futures have rallied 40% in the past two months. 
EU corn traded higher.  EU rapeseed was 1.00-2.75 euros higher.  Malaysian palm oil traded higher.  Rotterdam oils fell 6-15 euros from Friday morning and Rotterdam meal was up 1 to down 5 euros.  Offshore values are suggesting a steady open for soybean oil
and $1.50-3.00 lower open for soybean meal, but a higher open in corn and wheat could underpin the soybean complex. 

 

Algeria
seeks at least 50,000 tons of wheat for February 15-28 shipment.  Turkey moved their import tender for 400,000 tons back to January 22 for January 29-February 26 shipment.  Taiwan’s MFIG seeks a cargo of corn on Wednesday for March or April loading.  Other
news highlights can be found below.  South America saw mostly good rain over the 3-day period, bias northern Argentina.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CFTC
COT

“Traditional”
fund positions for corn hit another record for futures only and futures and options combined.  We think managed money positions still have room to the upside. 

 

 

 

Other
news

• After
  Russia announced on Friday to impose and increase wheat export taxes, Ukraine on January 25 will decide whether to limit corn exports to 22 million tons.  Ukraine exported nearly 11 million tons so far this season. 
  
• China’s
  customs data showed a record 11.3 million tons of corn was imported last year, more than double the previous year.  It included 2.25 million tons in December.  The 11.3 million tons is above the 7.2 million tons quota. 
  
• China
  will auction off 30,000 tons of pork this week. 
• China
  National Bureau of Statistics reported the following:
• 2020
  pork output fell 3.3% from a year earlier to 41.13 million tons
• China
  slaughtered 527.04 million hogs in 2020, down 3.2% from the same period a year earlier.
• China
  pig herd rose to 406.5 million heads at the end of December from 370.39 million at the end of September

• So
  far in January, Ukraine corn export prices rose $23-$26 per ton to $256-$264 fob Black Sea, according to APK-Inform.  This is $6-$10 per ton higher than the previous record in May 2014. 
  

• Last
  we heard, IL crude SBO was nominal 150 over, East nominal 175 over, West nominal 125 over and crude degummed at the Gulf at 575 over, down from 700 early last week. 
  
• Argentine
  as of late last week planted 94 percent of their soybean crop, one point below average. 
  
• AgRural
  reported Brazil harvested less than one percent of the soybean crop, behind 2 percent a year earlier.  MG is less than one percent versus nearly 5 percent average. 
  
• Monday
  prices…uses settlement.

• China
  cash crush margins were 179 cents on our calculation, down from 198 at the end of last week and compares to 84 year ago.
  

• EU
  wheat is at a 7-1/2 year high. 
• Russia
  will impose a wheat export tax of 50 euros a ton from March 1 to June 30, increasing an initial 25 euro levy to apply from Feb. 15.  They may tax new-crop. 
  
• China’s customs data showed China imported a record 8.38 million tons of wheat against a quota of 9.64 million tons.
• China sold 3.9 million tons of wheat form reserves, nearly all that was offered at auction at an average price of 2,504 yuan per ton. 
  
• Russia wheat export prices rose $23/ton last week to $298/ton, according to IKAR. 
  
• Ukraine wheat export prices rose $3.00 per ton to $284-$293 fob Black Sea, according to APK-Inform. 
  
• One trading house participating:  Bangladesh seeks 50,000 tons of wheat January 18 for shipment
  within 40 days of contract signing.