FI Evening Grain Comments 12/29/21

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Egypt bought 300,000 tons of wheat. The ag markets saw a two-sided trade on lack of direction and uncertainty over SA production prospects. Regardless of weather, SA is still expected to see large crops. There are showers showing up in the lang term model projections for southern Brazil and Argentina, but accumulated amounts might be countered by hot temperatures.

 

Weather

 

Bloomberg Ag Calendar

Thursday

• USDA export sales

Friday

• EIA biodiesel feedstock and month ethanol production
• CFTC Commitment of Traders

Russia’s New Year holiday is from Dec. 31 to Jan. 9.

Source: Bloomberg and FI

 

 

First Notice Day Delivery estimates 

Soybeans zero

Soybean oil 0-250

Soybean meal zero

 

Corn

·         CBOT corn ended higher on lack of news, technical buying and questionable SA production prospects.  La Nina conditions are certainly a concern for Brazil’s corn production prospect as some analysts have trimmed production on unfavorable weather. 

·         Holiday trading has increased market fluctuations.

·         Global import developments remain light. 

·         Weekly US ethanol production was up 8,000 barrels to 1.059 million from the previous week and stocks down 29,000 barrels to 20.676 million.

 

 

 

Export developments.

·         None reported

 

Updated 12/9/21

March corn is seen in a $5.50 to $6.20 range

 

Soybeans

·         Soybeans closed mostly higher with bear spreading in focus.  News was very light. 

·         South American production for soybeans have been lowered by many analysts in recent days. We think a ten million ton decrease drop in South American soybean production, compared to USDA, is a drop in the bucket, but noticeable by the trade.  US exports have been slow and in a couple weeks the season should come to an end with Brazil supplies coming online. 

·         Argentina may see a sub 47.5 MMT soybean crop and Brazil 135-138 MMT, well below USDA expectations, but large enough to counter US export competition.

 

Export Developments

·         The CCC seeks 12,000 tons of soybean oil on Jan 5 for Feb 5-15 delivery for the Dominican Republic.

 

 

Updated 12/22/21

Soybeans – March $11.75-$13.75

Soybean meal – March $330-$415

Soybean oil – March 50.00-59.00

 

Wheat

·         US wheat traded two sided on technical selling and lack of US interest for wheat. Prices ended mixed with KC back months lower in part to expanding precipitation projected by weather models for the key winter wheat areas.  US weather maps are indicating an expansion of precipitation for the dry areas of the Great Plains although not all areas will see rain/snow over the next week. Snowfall coverage across the central US could double by this time early next week with a significant storm occurring Sat into Sunday across the central US. 

·         We caution US bull wheat traders as Black Sea and French wheat supplies remain most attractive by major importers. 

 

Export Developments.

·         Egypt’s GASC bought 300,000 tons of wheat for shipment Feb. 15 to Mar. 3. That included 60,000 tons of French wheat, 180,000 tons of Ukrainian wheat and 60,000 tons of Romanian wheat.

·         Jordan bought 60,000 tons of hard milling wheat at $327.00/ton for shipment in the first half of August 2022.

·         Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of feed barley on December 30.  Possible shipments period included July 1-15, July 16-31, Aug. 1-15 and Aug. 16-31.

·         Iraq seeks 50,000 tons of wheat on January 3 from the US, Canada and Australia.

 

Rice/Other

·         Bangladesh seeks 50,000 tons of non-basmati parboiled rice on December 30 for delivery 50 days from contract award and letter of credit opening.

 

Updated 12/9/21

Chicago March $7.40 to $8.60 range

KC March $7.55 to $9.00 range

MN March $9.50‐$11.00