PDF Attached
Schedule Change: Weekly Export Sales Report
Because federal government agencies will be closed on Thursday, December 24, the scheduled Export Sales Report for the week ending December 17 will be published on Wednesday, December 23, at 8:30 a.m. EST.
Note the CBOT grain market will close early Thursday @ 12:05 PM CT per CME holiday calendar. https://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/holiday-calendar.html
MOST IMPORTANT WEATHER OF THE DAY
- Argentina will experience net drying for the coming week
- Scattered showers will occur in the second week of the outlook in an attempt to east what is likely to be notable heat and moisture stress by this time next week
- Argentina crop conditions have temporarily improved following weekend rain, but net drying and warming the remainder of this week will deplete soil moisture and induce plant stress especially in the western and southern drier biased areas
- Brazil’s center west and center south crop regions will get timely rainfall over the next two weeks supporting normally grain, oilseed, cotton, rice, sugarcane, coffee and citrus development
- Far southern Brazil will experience net drying over the coming week with scattered showers in the last days of December and first week of January
- Northeastern Brazil; including Pernambuco, eastern Piaui, central and eastern Bahia and northeastern Minas Gerais will experience net drying during the coming week to ten days resulting in some increasing crop stress
- Timely rainfall is expected key crop areas of western Bahia, western Piaui, Tocantins and Maranhao
- Brazil temperatures will be mostly seasonable over the next ten days except in the drier areas where readings will be a little warmer than usual
- Australia’s summer cotton and sorghum production areas received rain during the weekend and Monday easing long term dryness and improving planting and establishment conditions for dryland crops
- Additional rain is needed and will occur periodically
- Irrigated crops are rated favorably
- A more generalized rain event of significance is still strongly needed to further east long term dryness
- South Africa received some much needed rainfall Monday helping to ease long term dryness in the west
- Additional rain is needed, but not likely to occur in some areas for a while
- Fieldwork will advance swiftly in the drier biased weather
- Morocco will remain dry through the weekend and showers expected next week will be brief and light
- Some areas in southwestern Morocco wheat and barley production areas have been dealing with drought for two years and this is the beginning of a third year
- Other areas in North Africa wheat and barley production areas have more favorable soil moisture and will continue to experience some timely rainfall
- However, rain is needed in northwestern Algeria and it may not come significantly for a while
- India will not receive much rain in the coming week, but it may get some needed rain in central and interior northern crop areas in the first days of January
- The precipitation event is too far out in time to have high confidence, but with La Nina conditions prevailing and a strongly positive Southern Oscillation the odds favor significant rain for some of these areas this winter
- The precipitation would help winter crop production potentials rise
- China weather will continue quiet over the next couple of weeks with only light snow occasionally in the far northeast and a mix of rain and winter precipitation types in the Yangtze River Basin and interior far south
- Russia and Ukraine will experience periodic snow and rain through the next two weeks
- Resulting precipitation will be near to above average except in a few Russian Southern region locations where amounts will remain lighter than usual
- The moisture will be good for spring crop development with some of the snow to protect crops from any harsh weather that evolves
- However, temperatures will be warmer than usual in western Russia, Belarus, the Baltic States, Ukraine and in a few areas in Russia’s Southern region
- Temperatures will be a little cooler bias farther east, but no threatening cold is expected in any winter crop region
- Europe will experience waves of rain and a little mountain snowfall during the coming week to ten days
- Abundant rain is expected in parts of central and northwestern Europe and some locations will receive multiple inches of rain
- The moisture abundance will translate into wetter field conditions and the potential for areas of standing water may rise
- Flooding in northwestern France and parts of the U.K. is most likely
- U.S. weather over the coming ten days will be more active than it has been
- Frequent weather systems will impact areas east of the Mississippi River; including the eastern Midwest, Delta and Atlantic Coast States
- Moisture totals will be greater than usual in the northeastern states
- Most of the hard red winter wheat production areas will be left dry or mostly dry during this week and probably in the second week of the outlook as well, although a small snow and rain event is possible during mid-week next week
- A mini blizzard is expected tonight and Wednesday in the northern Plains and upper Midwest with similar conditions in southern Canada’s Prairies today and Wednesday
- Temperatures in the coming week will be near to above average in the Plains and northeastern states and near to below average in the southeastern and middle Atlantic coast states; however, a short term bout of colder weather will surge from the northern Plains to the southeastern states during mid- to late-week this week
- Next week temperatures will trend cooler in the western and north-central states
- Florida citrus areas will be cold late this week with some low temperatures in the 30s and a few upper 20s Fahrenheit expected Friday and especially Saturday
- Crop damage is not likely, but a close watch on the situation is warranted because anticipated temperatures could turn slightly colder as time moves along
- U.S. northern Plains
- Blizzard conditions will occur briefly tonight and Wednesday in the Dakotas, Minnesota and eventually in Wisconsin due to wind speeds of 25 to 35 mph and gusts to 50 and snow
- Snow accumulations will vary from a trace to 3 inches except in Minnesota and some immediate neighboring areas where 3 to 6 and local totals to 8 inches will result
- U.S. west-central and southwestern Plains will fail to get much “meaningful” moisture in the next ten days, although a little snow and rain is expected briefly during mid-week next week
- Far southwestern U.S. crop areas will remain drier biased over the next two weeks
- U.S. Delta and southeastern states will remain plenty moist over the next two weeks especially in the southeastern states
- Southern Canada’s Prairies will be wetter biased this week with two waves of significant snow expected in the south
- A net boost in snow cover and eventual moisture in the spring will result
- The area impacted needs precipitation and winter crops will benefit from the snow cover which has been absent for a while threatening winterkill during periods of bitter cold
- Blizzard conditions are expected today and Wednesday in parts of Saskatchewan and Manitoba when wind speeds of 20 to 40 mph and gusts to 50 occur while snowfall of 3 to 8 inches falls.
- Temperatures will be near to above average this week and next week
- Indonesia and Malaysia rainfall recently has become a little erratic and a boost in precipitation will eventually be needed
- No area is dry enough to pose a threat to short rooted crops, but greater volumes of rain would be welcome
- The pattern of erratic rainfall that is a little lighter than usual may prevail through the end of this month
- Southern Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia will receive some additional scattered showers and thunderstorms over the coming week
- Frequent precipitation in recent weeks has kept the region moist and delayed fieldwork
- No serious crop quality changes have occurred, but the wetter bias will continue for several more days
- Winter crops benefitted from the expected moisture
- Tropical Cyclone Krovanh was dissipating over open water south of the Mekong Delta in Vietnam
- Despite no landfall, some of the storm’s rain will impact the lower half of the Vietnam coast with some heavy rain possible through Wednesday
- Some rain from the tropical cyclone will also impact a part of Vietnam’s Central Highlands and Cambodia into Thursday
- The precipitation will end late in the weekend
- Dry weather will certainly be needed after this week to support more normal harvest conditions
- Philippines weather trended drier Monday after excessive rain fell during the past week
- Some damage to low lying crops was suspected with rainfall of more than 20.00 inches in a single week for some areas
- Another bout of significant rain will evolve late this week and through early next week resulting in additional heavy rain
- A new tropical cyclone may evolve west of Palawan, Philippines next week before passing south of Vietnam later in that same week
- This system could bring more rain to southern Vietnam
- Southern Oscillation Index was at +14.40 today and it will remain strongly positive for a while even though some weakening is possible later in the week
- World Weather, Inc. believes the index is near its peak and weakening in the next few weeks will signal the beginning of a weakening trend in La Nina that will be most significant in February and March
- Mexico precipitation will be quite limited over the coming week which is not unusual for this time of year
- Showers will be mostly limited to the far south
- Portions of Central America will continue to receive erratic rainfall over the next couple of weeks, but the intensity and frequency will be low enough to support some farming activity
- Costa Rica and Caribbean coastal areas of both Nicaragua and Honduras will be wettest this week
· West-central Africa weather is becoming more normal for this time of year with a few coastal showers
- Recent rainfall has been greater than usual especially in Ivory Coast, Ghana, Senegal, southern Benin and coastal Nigeria
· East-central Africa rain will be erratic and light in Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda while rainfall will be greatest over Tanzania this week
· New Zealand weather this week will trend greater than last week with some well-timed moisture across the nation
- Temperatures will be below average
Source: World Weather Inc. and FI
Wednesday, Dec. 23:
- China customs publishes data on imports of corn, wheat, sugar and cotton
- USDA weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
- EIA U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
- USDA hogs and pigs inventory, red meat production, 3pm
Thursday, Dec. 24:
- Port of Rouen data on French grain exports
Friday, Dec. 25:
- Christmas Day
- NOTE: Commitments of Traders reports for both ICE Futures Europe and CFTC will be delayed to Monday, Dec. 28
- China customs publishes country-wise soybean and pork import data
Source: Bloomberg and FI
US GDP Annualized (Q/Q) Q3F: 33.4% (est 33.1%, prev 33.1%)
US GDP Price Index (Q3F): 3.5% (est 3.6%, prev 3.6%)
US Personal Consumption (Q3F):41% (est 40.6%, prev 40.6%)
US Core PCE (Q/Q) Q3F: 3.4% (est 3.5%, prev 3.5%)
Canada Non-Farm Payrolls Rose 183.7k In Oct. To 16 Mln
Canada Average Earnings Rose 5.9% From Year Earlier In Oct.
US CB Consumer Confidence Dec: 88.6 (est 97.0; prev 96.1)
– Expectations: 87.5 (prev 89.5)
– Present Situation: 90.3 (prev 105.9)
US Existing Home Sales Change Nov: 6.69M (est 6.70M; prev R 6.86M)
– Existing Home Sales (M/M) Nov: -2.5% (est -2.2%; prev R 4.4%)
Corn.
- March corn hit a new contract high, extending a string of eight consecutive higher closes.
- There was talk China closed a poultry market in Hunan after a woman was infected with bird flu.
- China sold all of its 103,431 tons of corn from states reserves stored in the northeast region from the 2014 and 2015 harvests. Average selling price was 2,491 yuan per ton. In a separate auction China will offer nearly one million tons out of reserves in Heilongjiang, but results on that have yet to be seen.
- Funds were an estimated net buyer of 13,000 corn contracts on the session.
- Dry weather forecast in April and May for the safrinha corn crop in Brazil lent support to the corn market today.
Corn Export Developments
- Qatar seeks 100,000 tons of bulk barley on January 12.
- Qatar seeks 640,000 cartons of corn oil on January 12.
Updated 12/21/20
March corn is seen trading in a $4.25 and $4.55 range.