PDF Attached
We
raised our trading ranges for wheat and soybean oil. In the table above we upward revised our crop-year averages for 2020-21 for all the major commodities.
The soybean complex was mixed early this morning on lack of direction and corn lower but as selling dried, prices rallied. Sharply higher wheat lent support to soybeans and corn.
MOST
IMPORTANT WEATHER OF THE DAY
- Argentina
temperatures were hot Thursday with afternoon highs in the 90s to 106 degrees in La Pampa, 104 in San Luis, 102 in Cordoba and 108 in Santiago del Estero; temperatures over 100 were common in the west - Argentina
rainfall late Thursday and early today varied beneficially across central and western Buenos Aires, southern Cordoba, southwestern most Santa Fe and La Pampa where 0.05 to 0.62 inch occurred most often and a few totals over 1.00 inch - Argentina
weather will be seasonably warm with limited rainfall in the south during the coming week
- Temperatures
will not be quite as hot in the coming week as they were Thursday, but a warmer than usual bias is still expected keeping evaporation rates strong when rain is not falling - Rain
most likely in east-central and northeastern states today and Saturday - Additional
rain will occur in the central and northeast early next week - Wednesday
through Friday of next week will be dry in most of the nation - West-central
into northeastern Argentina will get another round of rain in the second weekend of the outlook - Net
drying is expected in southern Argentina through the next ten days while sufficient rain is expected in the central and northeast to favor crop development - Concern
about drying and developing or worsening crop moisture stress in the south will rise over the forecast period - Brazil’s
rainfall over the next ten days will be least significant in Bahia and southeastern Piaui, but there will be some occasionally rainfall in a few west-central and southwestern Bahia locations to benefit cotton, corn and soybeans - Eastern
cocoa and coffee production areas in Bahia will not get much rain for a while - Brazil
rainfall will also be a little light in northern Mato Grosso do Sul, southeastern Bolivia and some immediate neighboring areas, but there will be at least some rain in these areas periodically to prevent a complete absence of moisture - Minas
Gerais, Brazil will be the wettest state in Brazil during the coming two weeks with some potential for localized flooding in the south - Most
of the rain in Minas Gerais will be spread out over time helping to limit the potential for serious flooding - Neighboring
areas of Espirito Santo and Rio de Janeiro will also be sufficiently moist
- Today’s
forecast for areas from Paraguay and southern Mato Grosso do Sul to southern Minas Gerais is wetter than that of Thursday with rain occurring over more days than advertised previously - Another
round of welcome rain will come out of Paraguay and into Parana, southern Mato Grosso do Sul, Santa Catarina and southwestern Sao Paulo, Brazil Sunday into Wednesday of next week - This
rain event will be well timed after some drying occurs through the weekend and will help to maintain a very good moisture environment for developing summer crops - Rainfall
of 1.00 to 3.00 inches and local totals to more than 4.00 inches will result - Rainfall
in Brazil may become more erratic for a little while during the second week of the outlook and a close watch on its distribution both prior to and during that period of time is warranted to ensure sufficient amounts of rain occur to support the best crop development
potential. - Brazil’s
bottom line is still one of improvement in this coming week to ten days. Greater rain intensity and amounts will be needed in the far south, northeast and in few other random areas. Some production cuts have occurred in many areas, but the key to soybean production
will be during pod setting and filling which will be evolving later this month and in January. That is the time period that will be most important time in determining yield.
- Eastern
Australia’s generalized rain potentials are very low over the coming week, although some scattered showers will occur
- Rain
will fall along the lower Queensland and upper New South Wales coast where amounts will be great enough to bolster soil moisture, but only a few agricultural areas will benefit - Sugarcane,
far eastern cotton and far eastern sorghum areas will be most impacted - Temperatures
in eastern Australia will be cooler than they have been during the coming week, but warming is expected again Dec. 16-23 - Rain
potentials farther inland across key grain and cotton areas of Queensland and New South Wales may be rising for the Dec. 17-20 period – that would be a huge boon for dryland cotton and sorghum planting potentials - Australia’s
winter crop harvest in the south should be winding down soon and it has been a good harvest season - India’s
far south is beginning to dry down - Too
much rain recently has delayed summer crop maturation and harvesting in Tamil Nadu and southern Andhra Pradesh where some cotton, rice and groundnut quality concerns have evolved
- Drying
will get harvest progress back on the right track
- Central
and far northern India showers over the next seven days will benefit a few winter crops, but greater rain will be needed in the heart of the nation - Most
winter crops are favorably rated, however, with little change likely - Any
moisture will be welcome and of some benefit to winter crops - U.S.
weather was mostly dry and mild to warm Thursday; temperatures were well above average in a part of the central and southern Plains, Midwest, Delta and southeastern states - Some
rain and mountain snow fell in Arizona, New Mexico and western Texas overnight - The
moisture was welcome to dry areas of the southern Rocky Mountain region and parts of the southwestern desert region - U.S.
storm system in the Midwest today and Saturday will shift to the northeast Sunday and followed by some snow in the southwestern Plains Sunday into Monday - Heavy
snow will impact parts of northern and western Michigan tonight and Saturday while light snow trails to the southwest into Nebraska and eastern Colorado today and tonight - Widespread
rain will impact the heart of the Midwest and Delta today and early Saturday - Another
weak weather system will move from the central and southwestern Plains this weekend to the Delta and southeastern states early next week
- The
storm will produce 2 to 6 inches of snow with local totals to 8 inches from southeastern Colorado into Oklahoma and southwestern Kansas as well as the northeast half of the Texas Panhandle - Rain
will impact the Delta and southeastern states - A
little snow will occur during mid-week next week in the lower Midwest from this same event - An
active weather pattern in the Dec 16-25 period will bring another storm to the eastern Midwest, Delta and middle and northern Atlantic Coast States during the middle to latter part of next week followed by a couple of other storm systems moving through the
eastern United States Dec. 19-25 - Temperatures
over the next few days will be warmer than usual in much of the nation - Cooling
is expected in the central and western states this weekend into next week and then additionally during the following week - South
Africa will be favorably mixed with periods of rain and sunshine impacting summer grain, oilseed and cotton production areas - Planting
progress should advance favorably around periods of rain - Dryness
is of most concern today in central and western Free States and eastern Northern Cape - Eastern
China weather has improved recently with less rain allowing rapeseed and southern wheat production areas a chance to dry down after being too wet earlier this season - China’s
weather over the next two weeks will keep most winter crops dormant or semi-dormant and precipitation will concentrate on the Yangtze River Basin where a wintry mix of precipitation types is expected late this weekend into next week - Winter
crops are well established and poised to perform well in the spring - Sugarcane
harvesting in the south will advance relatively well for a while due to expected dry weather - Southern
Vietnam and Cambodia will trend wetter than usual today and into early next week with some of that moisture reaching far southern Thailand as well
- The
moisture will delay harvest progress for many crops, but no serious crop quality changes are likely - Winter
crops will benefit, though - Routinely
occurring precipitation is expected in Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia over the next two weeks - A
tropical cyclone has been advertised for southern Philippines late next week, but it is too soon to have high confidence in that event - Russia’s
Southern Region had eastern Ukraine will continue missing significant precipitation for the next ten days leaving dormant winter crops in need for greater soil moisture to be used in the spring - Winter
crops are still not as well established as they should be - Showers
will occur briefly next week, but the resulting moisture will not be very great - Greece,
Bulgaria, eastern and southern Romania, Moldova and western Ukraine will all receive significant moisture into early next week bolstering topsoil moisture for better winter crop establishment and growth potential in the spring - Portions
of the U.K., France and the Iberian Peninsula will also receive periodic rainfall during the next two weeks along with Italy and the eastern Adriatic Sea region
- Some
local flooding is possible in many of these areas - North
Africa rainfall will be greatest in northern Algeria and coastal areas of Tunisia during the coming ten days. The moisture will be welcome - Some
moisture will also reach into far north-central Morocco, but there is need for more rain in the remainder of that nation and in particular the southwest - Morocco
continues trying to recover from last year’s drought - Southern
Oscillation Index was at +10.14 today and it will remain strongly positive for a while - Tropical
Cyclone 03S moved into northwestern Australia near Port Hedland, Western Australia Thursday - Remnants
of the storm will produce rain in open range country in central parts of the nation this weekend - Mexico
precipitation will be quite limited over the coming week - Some
precipitation fell in the northwest Thursday - Southeastern
Mexico crop areas will only receive light rainfall from scattered showers and harvesting will advance favorably - Portions
of Central America will continue to receive periodic rainfall over the next couple of weeks, but the intensity and frequency will be low enough to support some farming activity - Costa
Rica will be wettest this workweek
- West-central
Africa will experience greater than usual rainfall over the coming week and some of the moisture might interfere with harvesting and could also induce some isolated flowering of coffee and cocoa in areas that get the greatest moisture. - Some
unharvested cotton may experience a little discoloring briefly, but the rain will not last long enough to be a more serious problem - East-central
Africa rain will be erratic and light in Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda while rainfall will be greatest over Tanzania
- New
Zealand rainfall will be limited in North Island and northern parts of South Island over the coming week while showers impact western and southern South Island - Temperatures
will be near to below average
Source:
World Weather Inc. and FI
Monday,
Dec. 14:
- USDA
weekly corn, soybean, wheat export inspections, 11am - U.S.
winter wheat conditions, cotton harvested, 4pm - Monthly
MARS bulletin on crop conditions in Europe - Vietnam
customs data on coffee, rice, rubber exports in November - Ivory
Coast cocoa arrivals
Tuesday,
Dec. 15:
- Brazil’s
Conab releases sugar, cane and ethanol production data - Malaysia’s
Dec. 1-15 palm oil export data - New
Zealand global dairy trade auction - Brazil’s
sugar-cane industry group Unica holds year-end press conference
Wednesday,
Dec. 16:
- EIA
U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am - HOLIDAY:
Bangladesh
Thursday,
Dec. 17:
- USDA
weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am - USDA
Total Milk Production, 3pm - Port
of Rouen data on French grain exports - Conab’s
estimate for 2020 Brazil coffee crop - Poland
publishes crop output figures for 2020
Friday,
Dec. 18:
- ICE
Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London) - CFTC
commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm - U.S.
Cattle on Feed
Source:
Bloomberg and FI
Managed
money futures and options for wheat extended their short position as of last Tuesday from 4,400 to 5,700 contracts. Funds were much more short in traditional fund soybean oil position than expected.
SUPPLEMENTAL
Non-Comm Indexes Comm
Net Chg Net Chg Net Chg
Corn
293,239 -3,212 389,681 399 -657,511 247
Soybeans
161,602 -4,710 172,530 -13,702 -328,736 21,879
Soyoil
61,878 -13,857 129,624 -364 -212,344 11,925
CBOT
wheat -28,493 351 135,285 -1,681 -90,332 68
KCBT
wheat 24,908 1,645 68,604 -552 -93,738 340
=================================================================================
FUTURES
+ OPTS Managed Swaps Producer
Net Chg Net Chg Net Chg
Corn
269,583 -1,050 241,771 -33 -628,674 -206
Soybeans
185,655 -9,028 102,081 -15,950 -327,312 26,013
Soymeal
62,642 -7,744 70,699 -421 -179,185 10,002
Soyoil
89,063 -15,652 91,351 1,574 -222,370 10,035
CBOT
wheat -5,692 -1,293 83,940 -3,610 -79,918 578
KCBT
wheat 44,774 268 41,876 -443 -89,399 370
MGEX
wheat 2,538 -2,217 2,190 91 -8,843 1,635
———- ———- ———- ———- ———- ———-
Total
wheat 41,620 -3,242 128,006 -3,962 -178,160 2,583
Live
cattle 38,222 -1,590 67,659 2,203 -119,375 -1,784
Feeder
cattle 1,946 879 7,890 140 -4,512 -825
Lean
hogs 33,584 -4,775 47,618 -386 -82,600 5,399
Source:
CFTC via Reuters
US
PPI Final Demand (M/M) Nov: 0.1% (est 0.1%; prev 0.3%)
US
PPI Ex Food, Energy (M/M) Nov: 0.1% (est 0.2%; prev 0.1%)
US
PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade (M/M) Nov: 0.1% (est 0.2%; prev 0.2%)
US
PPI Final Demand (Y/Y) Nov: 0.8% (est 0.7%; prev 0.5%)
US
PPI Ex Food, Energy (Y/Y) Nov: 1.4% (est 1.5%; prev 1.1%)
US
PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade (Y/Y) Nov: 0.9% (prev 0.8%)
Canadian
Capacity Utilization Rate Q3: 76.5% (est 78.0%; prev 70.3%)
Russian
Trade Balance Oct: 6.4B (est 7.2B; prev 10.1B)
Russian
Exports Oct: 28.2B (est 27.9B; prev 30.5B)
Russian
Imports Oct: 21.8B (est 21.3B; prev 20.5B)
Corn.
-
CBOT
March corn started lower on lack of fresh bullish news and follow through selling after USDA made no changes to the US corn balance sheet on Thursday, then turned higher after wheat rallied.
-
Funds
bought an estimated net 8,000 corn contracts. -
The
US Senate voted and approved a one-week extension of federal funding to avert a government shutdown, yet politicians are still squabbling over the one trillion USD economic stimulus.
-
Today
was the last day of the Goldman Roll. -
Monday
is the last trading day for the December futures contracts. -
China
sold 564,900 tons of corn from state reserves in Jilin to local refineries at an average price of 2,309 yuan/ton. This amount was nearly all what was offered.
-
China
banned two Brazil meat suppliers over coronavirus concerns.
Corn
Export Developments
- None
reported
Updated
11/30/20
March
corn is seen
trading in a $4.15 and $4.40 range.