PDF Attached
We
will get 5 reports over the next 24 hours. This morning USDA reported a flash sale of 257,071 tons of corn for Mexico. Prices rallied today on short covering and positioning.
MOST
IMPORTANT WEATHER OF THE DAY
- Brazil’s
rainfall over the next ten days will be least significant in Bahia and southeastern Piaui, but there will be some occasionally rainfall in a few west-central and southwestern Bahia locations to benefit cotton, corn and soybeans - Eastern
cocoa and coffee production areas will not get much rain for a while - Brazil
rainfall will also be a little light in northern Mato Grosso do Sul, southeastern Bolivia and some immediate neighboring areas, but there will be at least some rain in these areas periodically to prevent a complete absence of moisture - Minas
Gerais, Brazil will be the wettest state in Brazil during the coming two weeks with some potential for localized flooding - Most
of the rain in Minas Gerais will be spread out over time helping to limit the potential for serious flooding - Neighboring
areas of Espirito Santo and Rio de Janeiro will also be sufficiently moist while rain in Sao Paulo will be a little sporadic - Another
round of welcome rain will come out of Paraguay and into Parana, Brazil and immediate neighboring areas Sunday into Wednesday of next week - This
rain event will be well timed after some drying occurs through the weekend and will help to maintain a very good moisture environment for developing summer crops - Rainfall
in Brazil may become more sporadic and light again for a little while during the second week of the outlook and a close watch on its distribution both prior to and during that period of time is warranted to ensure sufficient amounts of rain occur to support
the best crop development potential. - Brazil’s
bottom line is still one of improvement in this coming week to ten days. Greater rain intensity and amounts will be needed in the far south, northeast and in few other random areas. Production cuts have occurred in many areas, but the key to soybean production
will be during pod setting and filling which will be evolving later this month and in January. That is the time period that will be most important time in determining yield.
- Southern
Argentina will see the least frequent and least significant rainfall in South America for a while - Buenos
Aires still has some favorable subsoil moisture, but it is drying out - La
Pampa, San Luis and southern Cordoba are already drying out and will experience crop stress first - Some
rain will fall briefly in Buenos Aires Thursday to delay the onset of moisture stress, but net drying is expected in all of the south following that event - Temperatures
will be a little warmer than usual keeping evaporation rates high enough raise concern about future crop development in the already driest areas - Argentina’s
north and some central crop areas will get timely rainfall to support crop needs, although the greatest rain in central Argentina occurs early to mid-week next week and it may be infrequent enough that the region will have to be closely monitored - Argentina’s
bottom line is mostly favorable during the next two weeks in central and northern areas, although parts of Cordoba and far southern Santa Fe may be a little dry for a while. Southwestern Argentina will have the greatest moisture stress issues especially in
San Luis, southern Cordoba and La Pampa. Rain in Buenos Aires Thursday of this week will be of critical importance since without it the soil will become too dry immediately and with the moisture the driest conditions will be staved off for a few more days.
Production cuts have occurred, but mostly to the early planted crops. More recently planted crops have had timely precipitation to support germination, emergence and establishment, but timely rainfall must continue to preserve and protect production potentials.
- Eastern
Australia generalized rain potentials are very low over the coming week, although some scattered showers will occur
- Today’s
forecast is drier than that advertised by all of the forecast models Tuesday - Temperatures
in eastern Australia will be cooler than they have been during the coming week, but warming is expected again Dec. 16-23 - Australia’s
winter crop harvest in the south should be winding down soon and it has been a good harvest season - South
Africa will be favorably mixed with periods of rain and sunshine impacting summer grain, oilseed and cotton production areas - Planting
progress should advance favorably around periods of rain - Dryness
is of most concern today in central and western Free States and eastern Northern Cape, but some rain fell in these areas overnight - Eastern
China weather has improved recently with less rain allowing rapeseed and southern wheat production areas a chance to dry down after being too wet earlier this season - China’s
weather over the next two weeks will keep most winter crops dormant or semi-dormant and precipitation will concentrate on the Yangtze River Basin where a wintry mix of precipitation types is expected late this weekend into next week - Winter
crops are well established and poised to perform well in the spring - Sugarcane
harvesting in the south will advance relatively well for a while due to expected dry weather - India’s
wet bias in the south is abating and giving way to some much needed drying - Too
much rain recently has delayed summer crop maturation and harvesting in Tamil Nadu and southern Andhra Pradesh where some cotton, rice and groundnut quality concerns have evolved recently - Drying
will get harvest progress back on the right track - Central
and far northern India showers next week will benefit a few winter crops, but greater rain will be needed in the heart of the nation - Most
winter crops are favorably rated, however, with little change likely - Southern
Vietnam and Cambodia will trend wetter than usual late this week and into the weekend with some of that moisture reaching far southern Thailand as well late in the period - The
moisture will delay harvest progress for many crops, but no serious crop quality changes are likely - Some
additional rain will fall along the central and lower Vietnam coast for a while next week and some additional rain will be possible in southern Cambodia and a few areas in the Malay Peninsula - Routinely
occurring precipitation is expected in Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia over the next two weeks - Russia’s
Southern Region had eastern Ukraine will continue missing precipitation for the next ten days leaving dormant winter crops in need for greater soil moisture to be used in the spring - Winter
crops are still not as well established as they should be - Greece,
Bulgaria, eastern and southern Romania, Moldova and western Ukraine will all receive significant moisture late this weekend into early next week bolstering topsoil moisture for better winter crop establishment and growth potential in the spring - Portions
of the U.K., France and the Iberian Peninsula will also receive periodic rainfall during the next two weeks along with Italy and the eastern Adriatic Sea region where some flooding will be possible due to heavy rain over areas that are already wet - North
Africa rainfall will be greatest in northern Algeria and coastal areas of Tunisia during the coming ten days. The moisture will be welcome - Some
moisture will also reach into far north-central Morocco, but there is need for more rain in the remainder of that nation and in particular the southwest - Morocco
continues trying to recover from last year’s drought - U.S.
weather was mostly dry and mild to warm Tuesday; temperatures were well above average in a part of the north-central states and in neighboring areas of Canada - U.S.
storm late this week will impact areas from eastern Texas, eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas and Missouri to Michigan and New York with rain and some snow - Heavy
snow will impact parts of northern and western Michigan and southeastern Wisconsin - An
active weather pattern in the Dec 16-22 period will bring another storm to the Midwest, Delta and middle and northern Atlantic Coast States during the middle to latter part of next week followed by one more farther to the east during the Dec. 22-25 period. - Temperatures
over the next seven days will be warmer than usual in much of the nation, but close to normal in the southeastern states
- Mexico
precipitation will be quite limited over the coming week except in the northwest tonight and Thursday when a storm system brings moisture to Sonora, Baja California, Sinaloa, northwestern Durango and Chihuahua
- Rainfall
of 0.20 to 0.75 inch and local totals to 1.25 inches will result disrupting summer crop harvesting, but benefiting winter crops - The
precipitation event has been diminished relative to that of Monday - Southern
areas will only receive light rainfall from scattered showers and harvesting will advance favorably - Portions
of Central America will continue to receive periodic rainfall over the next couple of weeks, but the intensity and frequency will be low enough to support some farming activity - Costa
Rica will be wettest this workweek
·
West-central Africa will experience greater than usual rainfall over the coming week and some of the moisture might interfere with harvesting and could also induce some isolated flowering of coffee and cocoa in areas that get
the greatest moisture.
·
East-central Africa rain will be erratic and light in Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda while rainfall will be greatest over Tanzania
·
New Zealand rainfall will be erratically distributed over the next ten days benefiting most areas
- Much
of the rain will be lighter than usual - Temperatures
will be a little cooler than usual
Source:
World Weather Inc. and FI
Thursday,
Dec. 10:
- China’s
agriculture ministry (CASDE) releases monthly report on supply, demand, 10am local - Malaysian
Palm Oil Board releases data on November stockpiles, exports, production, 12:30pm local - FranceAgriMer
monthly crop report - Agroinvestor
Russian agriculture conference - Port
of Rouen data on French grain exports - Conab’s
data on area, output and yield of soybeans and corn in Brazil, 7am - National
Grain & Feed Association Country Elevator Conference, 10am - USDA
weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am - USDA’s
monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand (WASDE) report, 12pm - HOLIDAY:
Thailand
Friday,
Dec. 11:
- ICE
Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report - HOLIDAY:
Thailand
Source:
Bloomberg and FI
Bloomberg
Trade Estimates:
Bank
of Canada will maintain current level of policy rate until inflation objective is achieved, continues its quantitative easing program.
Corn.
-
CBOT
March corn ended 4.0 cents higher on technical buying. Positioning ahead of the government reports due out Thursday and higher wheat gave some life to the US corn market. Traders are not expecting any major adjustments to global balance sheets. We look
for minor revisions to the Brazil and Argentina crops and for USDA to possibly raise the US soybean export forecast.
-
Funds
bought an estimated net 18,000 corn contracts. -
USDA
reported a flash sale of 257,071 tons of corn for Mexico. -
Weekly
US ethanol production was reported at its highest level since March, but demand is lowest since May.
-
DTN
noted state-owned Chinese COFCO is working on a phytosanitary agreement to import Brazilian corn. Some think this could take months to put in place.
-
Today
was day 3 of the Goldman Roll. -
Refinitiv
Commodities Research – 2020/21 South Africa corn production: 15.0 million tons. -
The
USDA Broiler Report showed eggs set in the US down 3 percent and chicks placed down 1 percent. Cumulative placements from the week ending January 4, 2020 through December 5, 2020 for the United States were 9.04 billion. Cumulative placements were down 1 percent
from the same period a year earlier.
US
corn balance
– FI changes and comments: Corn 2020-21 crop year price was adjusted higher to $4.20 amid 11.1% STU. US corn exports were revised to 2.600 billion, 50 million below USDA and up 50 from previous. US corn imports are projected at 40 million, 15 above USDA.
We also adjusted 2021 US corn plantings to reflect changes made last week, up 800,000 acres to 91.8 million. Our 2021-21 US carryout is expected to remain tight, below 1.7 billion with a 11.4% STU, and price average is higher than $4.20 for 2020-21 based
on higher soybean price outlook of $11.25 for 2021-22.
Corn
Export Developments
- Under
the 24-hour reporting system private exporters sold 257,071 tons of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2020-21 marketing year.
- Taiwan’s
MFG bought around 65,000 tons of US corn for Feb/Mar shipment at $1.9639/bu over the May futures.
Updated
11/30/20
March
corn is seen
trading in a $4.15 and $4.40 range.