PDF Attached includes US soybean complex S&D’s

 

US
holiday Thursday and there will be no night session and we have a hard open on Friday post USDA export sales report.  On Wednesday we have a regular close (1:15 PM CT)

 

Dow
Jones average traded over 30,000.  There were no USDA 24-hour sales. 

 

 

Weather

EARLY
MORNING WEATHER UPDATE

MOST
IMPORTANT WEATHER AROUND THE WORLD

  • Tropical
    Cyclone Nivar was located 250 miles south southeast of Chennai, India at 9.6 north, 82.6 east moving westerly at 6 mph and producing maximum sustained wind speeds of 52 mph.
    • Tropical
      storm force wind was occurring out 65 miles from the storm center
    • The
      storm will intensify quickly today and Wednesday while moving toward the upper Tamil Nadu coast and will reach a Category One hurricane equivalent intensity on the Saffir Simpson scale prior to landfall in northeastern Tamil Nadu near the Andhra Pradesh border
      around 1800 GMT Wednesday
    • Heavy
      rain and strong wind will accompany the storm inland
      • Rainfall
        of 4.00 to 12.00 inches will result near the Tamil Nadu/Andhra Pradesh border with 3.00 to 8.00 inches occurring farther inland reaching eastern Karnataka and expand from Andhra Pradesh to southern Telangana
    • Damage
      to open boll cotton, groundnuts rice and sugarcane is possible, although the storm will weaken quickly limiting damage from high wind speeds relatively soon after landfall
  • Argentina
    rain began overnight in southwestern parts of Buenos Aires and in a few La Pampa and southern Cordoba locations
    • Moisture
      totals were mostly under 0.90 inch
  • Argentina
    will report frequent showers and thunderstorms over the coming week to nearly ten days
    • The
      precipitation will bring some needed moisture to most crop areas in the nation and will improve summer crop emergence and establishment conditions while reducing stress to early season crops
    • More
      rain will be needed after this period of time, but enough moisture is expected to greatly ease concern over recent drying
    • Northeastern
      Argentina will be wettest with multiple inches of rainfall expected over the next ten days
      • Central
        and southern crop areas will receive 0.65 to 1.75 inches with a few totals of more than 2.00 inches
    • Drier
      weather will evolve after the end of next week, but crops will benefit from the moisture into the second week of December
  • Brazil
    will experience net drying from northern Parana, Mato and many areas in northern and eastern Mato Grosso do Sul as well as southern Mato Grosso to Bahia, Piaui and Tocantins over the next ten days
    • Some
      showers and thunderstorms are expected, but most of this region will experience gradual drying and eventual crop stress in the sandier soil and in areas that are already a little dry
  • Southern
    Brazil will experience a notable increase in soil moisture during the period from Thursday of this week through the middle part of next week with some additional rain after that
    • The
      moisture boost will end serious crop stress in western and southern Rio Grande do Sul and should ease the stress in southern Paraguay, western Santa Catarina, southwestern Parana and far southern Mato Grosso do Sul in time
    • Crop
      conditions will improve, but follow up rain later in December will be very important
  • South
    Africa will experience some timely rainfall over the next week to support additional planting of summer crops and the development of previous planted and emerged crops
    • Drier
      weather will follow for a little while in early December raising the need for additional precipitation later in the month
  • Australia’s
    recent heat and dryness is raising concern over Queensland and crop conditions – mostly in unirrigated cotton and sorghum production areas
    • Relief
      is unlikely for the next ten days
  • Restricted
    southern Australia rainfall over the next couple of weeks will be great for maturing and harvesting winter crops
  • Portions
    of Russia (including the south), Ukraine and western Kazakhstan will experience periods of light rain and snow over the next ten days which will help either maintain good soil moisture or increase soil moisture for use in the spring
    • Most
      crops are now dormant or semi-dormant limiting their ability to seriously improve establishment until spring
  • China’s
    recent rain has been much greater than usual and the has left winter crops abundantly moist for the winter
    • Wheat
      and rapeseed establishment is expected to be good, although a few rapeseed areas may be a little too wet as additional showers occur over the next couple of weeks
    • Dry
      weather in the south will be good for sugarcane maturation and eventual harvest
  • U.S.
    hard red winter wheat areas will receive some welcome moisture today and Wednesday with eastern Colorado and western Kansas expecting a little rain and snow
    • These
      areas are among the driest in the region
    • The
      moisture will be good for “some” improved winter crop establishment, although it is getting a little too late in the season for aggressive changes in plant establishment
      • The
        moisture will be helpful to crops in the spring as long as the moisture remains and does not evaporate away over the winter
    • Additional
      precipitation is needed
  • U.S.
    weather conditions in the Midwest, Delta and southeastern states will be mixed over the next couple of weeks disrupting late season fieldwork for brief periods of time and supporting a drier bias at other times.
    • Late
      season cotton and other crop harvesting will continue sluggishly in the southeastern states
  • West
    Texas harvest weather will remain mostly good over the next ten days, despite a few sporadic showers
  • Much
    of the U.S. will experience a drier biased weather pattern in the first week of December  favoring late season farming activity
    • Some
      delays are expected near the Gulf of Mexico and in the Atlantic Coast States briefly due to some precipitation expected
  • U.S.
    temperatures will be near to slightly above average over the next couple of weeks in much of the nation
    • Some
      warmer biased weather is expected in the northern Plains and in the Atlantic Coast States especially in this first week of the outlook
  • Indonesia,
    Malaysia and Philippines weather during the next two weeks will be routinely moist with frequent showers and thunderstorms supporting long term crop development
  • Interior
    parts of mainland Southeastern Asia will be mostly dry over the next ten days
    • Some
      frequent rain will occur along the Vietnam coast due to a strong northeast monsoon flow pattern
    • Local
      flooding may occur, but mostly next week
  • Europe
    weather is expected to continue tranquil over the coming week except in Spain, Portugal and western parts of the U.K. where occasional rain is expected
    • Some
      rain will also occur in the Mediterranean region with eastern Adriatic Sea precipitation greatest relative to normal
  • North
    Africa will have a great opportunity to receive rain during the coming week improving wheat and barley planting and establishment potentials
    • Rain
      will develop in Morocco and northwestern Algeria late this week and into the weekend while Tunisia and northeastern Algeria temporarily dry down
  • Southern
    Oscillation Index was +6.68 this morning; the index will vary in a narrow range over the next few days
  • Mexico
    precipitation will be quite limited over the coming week favoring summer crop maturation
  • Portions
    of Central America will remain wetter than usual this week with southern areas still wetter than usual next week

·        
West-central Africa will experience erratic rain through the next ten days favoring crop areas close to the coast

·        
East-central Africa rain will be erratic and light over the coming week

·        
New Zealand rainfall will be greater than usual in North Island during the coming week while closer to normal in South Island

    • Temperatures
      will be a little cooler than usual

Source:
World Weather Inc. and FI

 

Source:
World Weather Inc. and FI

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Tuesday,
Nov. 24:

  • U.S.
    chicken slaughter in October
  • World
    palm oil virtual exhibition and conference, day 1
  • Itau
    webinar on Brazilian agribusiness outlook
  • International
    Sugar Organization seminar
  • Brazil
    Unica cane crush, sugar production (tentative)

Wednesday,
Nov. 25:

  • EIA
    U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production
  • World
    palm oil virtual exhibition and conference, day 2
  • China
    Oct. trade data, including country breakdowns for soybeans and pork
  • Malaysia
    Nov. 1-25 palm oil export data
  • EARNINGS:
    IJM Plantations

Thursday,
Nov. 26:

  • World
    palm oil virtual exhibition and conference, day 3
  • Brazil
    grain exporters’ group meeting
  • International
    Grains Council monthly supply and demand report
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • HOLIDAY:
    U.S. (Thanksgiving)

Friday,
Nov. 27:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • ICE
    Commitments of Traders report, 1:30pm ET (6:30pm London)
  • NOTE:
    CFTC Commitments of Traders report, usually released on Fridays, will be issued on Monday, Nov. 30, due to Thanksgiving holiday
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

Macros

Canada
Factory Sales Rose 0.6% In October – StatsCan Estimate

 

Corn.

 

Corn
Export Developments

  • Turkey’s
    state grain board TMO bought about 350,000 tons of corn for the shipment position between Dec. 2-18, 2020.  Lowest price paid was $245.30/ton c&f. 

 

 

Updated
11/20/20

March
corn is seen trading up into the $4.40‐$4.50 area.

 

Soybean
complex
.
 

  • Despite
    fresh buying by China over the weekend into Monday, talk of China washing out several cargoes of US soybeans and an improvement in Argentina’s weather outlook sent a bearish undertone to the CBOT soybean complex early on Tuesday, but bottom picking underpinned
    futures and most contracts ended higher.  We heard at least three cargoes soybeans were shifted from the US to Brazil as SA origin margins are better.  Note USDA export sales of soybeans for China are double than that of 2017 for this time of year.  We see
    November soybeans trading back to the $12 level if SA weather does not cooperate. 
  • Soybean
    oil was sharply lower following weakness in palm prices.  December meal opened mostly lower but rallied on product spreading. 
  • Funds
    sold an estimated net 3,000 soybeans, bought 3,000 soybean meal and sold 5,000 soybean oil. 
  • China
    cash crush margins were down sharply from Monday.  Malaysian palm futures declined 77 points and cash was $18.50 lower, from a slowdown in November palm exports. 
  • Important
    rainfall will impact Argentina through next Monday promoting improvement in topsoil moisture in eastern production areas and possibly some localized flooding in the northeast. (World Weather)   Temperatures will remain above normal. 
  • South
    American Monsoonal rains during October and November have developed poorly.  Center-west Brazil into Sao Paulo and Parana will see net drying over the next nine to ten days. Rain should return to those locations during the first week of December.  Southern
    Parana into Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul will see a mix of erratic rain and sunshine this week.  Minas Gerais into Goias will see rain scatter across both regions on a periodic basis this week.
  • Southern
    Paraguay rains will fall in these southern crop areas later this week and into next week, but center west and center south crop areas may have to wait until December 1-7 for meaningful rain.
  • Soybean
    and Corn Advisors estimated Brazilian soybean production at 132 million tons, unchanged, and compares to USDA at 133 million tons. Argentine soybean production was estimated at 49 million, down 1 million tons from last week and compares to USDA at 51 million
    tons.
  • We
    did not hear of any China soybean purchases on Tuesday.   
  • The
    U.S. EPA reported nearly 1.56 billion renewable identification numbers (RINs) were generated in October, down from 1.73 billion generated during October 2019.  1.15 billion D6 renewable fuel RINs were generated in October, (1.14 billion for ethanol, 15.26
    million generated for nonester renewable diesel by foreign entities, and 135,328 generated for ethanol by importers). Total D6 RIN generation for the first 10 months of 2020 reached 10.68 billion. That volume includes 10.56 billion generated for ethanol by
    domestic producers, 112.27 million generated for nonester renewable diesel by foreign entities, 9.06 million generated for ethanol by importers, and 572 generated for butanol by domestic producers.  (Ethanol Producer Magazine)
  • CBOT
    January deliveries are around the corner.  Registrations were 175 for soybeans, 196 for meal and 1,743 for soybean oil.  We think meal will be zero and soybean oil 0-200. 
  • Indonesia
    2020 palm oil exports are seen at 36.1 million tons according to the Estate Crop Fund, and 36.49 million tons for 2021.
  • Indonesia
    biodiesel production in the first nine months of the year stood at 6.47 million kiloliters and biodiesel domestic consumption in the January to September period was 6.33 million kiloliters.

 

Oilseeds
Export Developments

 

Updated
11/19/20

January
soybeans are seen in a $11.40‐$12.10 range

January
soybean meal is seen trading above $4.20 range

January
soybean oil is seen in a 37.00-39.00 cent range.

 

Wheat

  • Chicago
    wheat registrations stand at 109.  FND deliveries could end up in the 0-50 range. 
  • Ukraine is nearly complete
    in planting 2021 winter grains.  Winter wheat plantings are expected to fall 9% to 6.1 million hectares from around 6.7 million hectares.  September weather conditions were the worst in 10 years.
  • Ukraine used 66.5% of the
    2020-21 wheat export quota, or 11.63 million tons.  Wheat available for export this season must not exceed 17.5 million tons.  Ukraine exported 20.5 million tons in 2019-20.
  • Paris
    (Matif) March wheat was 1.50 euro higher at 211.75 euros. 

 

Export
Developments.

  • Tunisia
    bought 75,000 tons of durum wheat, 75,000 tons of barley and 92,000 tons of soft wheat for shipment between Dec. 20, 2020, and Jan. 25, 2021.  The soft wheat was purchased in four consignments at $276.83 a ton c&f, $276.97 a ton c&f and two consignments at
    $275.49 and $276.89 a ton c&f.  The durum was purchased in three 25,000 ton consignments at $366.49 a ton c&f, at $368.89 a ton c&f and at $370.29 a ton c&f.
  • Turkey
    provisionally bought 155,000 tons barley at the lowest price of $226.40 a ton c&f. 
  • South
    Korean flour mills seek about 80,600 tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States on Wed or Thur for shipment between Feb. 16 and March 15, 2021, and 30,600 tons for shipment between March 1-31, 2021. 
  • Thailand
    seeks about 160,000 tons of animal feed wheat and about 80,000 tons of feed barley on Wednesday, Nov. 25 for shipment in January, February and March 2021. Barley shipment is between February and March 2021. 
  • Taiwan
    seeks 82,220 tons of US wheat on November 25 for Jan/Feb arrival.  It includes hard red winter, northern spring and white wheat. 
  • Jordan
    seeks 120,000 tons of milling wheat on Nov 25 for March-May shipment, depending on origin. 
  • In
    an SBS import tender, on November 25, Japan seeks 80,000 tons of feed wheat and 100,000 tons of feed barley to be loaded by Jan. 31, 2021 and arrive in Japan by Feb. 25, on Nov. 18.
  • Jordan
    seeks 120,000 tons of feed barley on Dec 1. 
  • Qatar
    seeks 100,000 tons of feed barley on December 8, optional origin. 

 

Rice/Other

·        
Bangladesh seeks 50,000 tons of rice on November 26, valid until December 10, for shipment within 40 days of contract signing.  This is the first import tender in three years. 

·        
Bangladesh seeks 50,000 tons of rice on December 2 for shipment within 40

·        
Syria seeks 25,000 tons of white rice on December 2. 

 

Updated
11/18/20

March
Chicago wheat is seen in a $5.90‐$6.40 range

March
KC wheat is seen in a $5.45‐$5.90 range

March
MN wheat is seen in a $5.40‐$5.85 range

 

Terry Reilly

Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds

Futures International
One Lincoln Center
18 W 140 Butterfield Rd.

Oakbrook Terrace, Il. 60181

W: 312.604.1366

treilly@futures-int.com

ICE IM: 
treilly1

Skype: fi.treilly

 

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