FI Evening Grain Comments 11/22/22

PDF Attached

The
next U.S. Export Sales Report will be released on Friday, November 25, 2022 -FAS/USDA. 
FI estimates attached.

US
rail strike concerns and ongoing China covid lockdowns sent US agriculture commodities lower. A rail union rejected a labor deal yesterday and that raises the threat for a US strike in about two weeks. Egypt bought a large amount of vegetable oils, first notable
purchase in about a month. US winter wheat conditions were unchanged from the previous week, one point below trade expectations, and signal a short 2023 crop if weather fails to improve. US Great Plains will remain mostly dry over the next week.

Disconnect
from palm oil versus soybean oil, futures, may widen in 2023 if some predictions for Asian palm oil production increase is realized. Fitch recently published a bearish palm oil price outlook.

Weather

Some
changes were seen Tuesday morning for the US and South America weather forecast. The US trends drier this week with a few showers for eastern TX and wintery mix for the Midwest areas of the northwestern states later this workweek. Rain should favor the US
Midwest southwestern areas Thursday. The Delta turned wetter for the rest of this week. Argentina will dry down through Friday. Brazil will see additional rain through Wednesday. West-central Brazil will begin to dry down soon and will remain dry throughout
the week.

World
Weather, INC.

MOST
IMPORTANT WEATHER FOR THE COMING WEEK

• Argentina
  rainfall will be limited over the next two weeks
• Totally
  dry weather is not likely, but the rain that falls may be infrequent and often light
• Southern
  Buenos Aires and parts of La Pampa will be wettest with rain late this week and into the weekend
• The
  next nationwide precipitation event will hold off until mid-week next week and early indications suggest relief from dryness in central Argentina will be limited once again
• Central
  Argentina has the poorest soil moisture and is expected to suffer serious stress over the coming week
• Argentina
  temperatures will be quite warm to hot later this week and through the weekend into early next week
• Temperatures
  will rise into the 90s and over 100 degrees with the hottest conditions in the north
• The
  heat will exacerbate the stress on crops
• Brazil
  weather will be favorably mixed over the next two weeks for most of the nation; however, multiple days of drying are expected from Wednesday afternoon of this week through the first half of next week from southern Mato Grosso through Mato Grosso do Sul and
  southwestern Sao Paulo to Rio Grande do Sul
• Most
  of the region that dries down will also experience a brief bout of light rain today and Wednesday delaying the onset of dryness for a little while
• Temperatures
  will be seasonable which will help to keep drying rates slow enough to reduce concern over firming soil
• Recent
  rain in some of the drier areas of Mato Grosso and Goias have improved topsoil moisture and crop conditions, although more rain is needed
• The
  best rain potential for these drier pocketed areas will be today into Wednesday and again during the Nov. 30 – Dec. 6 period.
  
• Northeastern
  Brazil will experience frequent moderate to heavy rain during the latter part of this week through much of next week resulting in some rising flood potential
• Crop
  conditions will stay favorable in most of the region, but a few of the wettest areas will require drying after the middle of next week to protect long term crop development
• U.S.
  weather Monday was dry biased in most of the nation, but some rain fell again in southeastern Texas resulting a further boost in topsoil moisture after the same region received rain during the weekend
• Snow
  cover is still widespread in the northern Plains and Great Lakes region, although the accumulation is very light in southernmost Canada’s Prairies
• Temperatures
  began warming across the central and southern Plains Monday afternoon while still cool in the Midwest and the Pacific Northwest
• U.S.
  weather outlook
• Greater
  precipitation is being advertised from the southwestern Plains into the Midwest for late this week and into the weekend
  
• This
  event is likely overdone by some of the models, but precipitation will fall from the Texas Panhandle into the heart of the Midwest Thursday through Saturday
• Some
  snow will accumulate in the Texas Panhandle with accumulations of 2 to 6 inches and locally to 8 inches possible
• Some
  southwestern Plains wheat will benefit from the precipitation event
• U.S.
  west-central high Plains will be missed by the precipitation this weekend and will stay drought ridden for an extended period of time
• U.S.
  Delta and southeastern states will see waves of rain Thursday through the weekend and into early next week resulting in some needed runoff for the lower Mississippi River
  
• Delays
  to late season summer crop harvesting is expected and there may be a little concern over unharvested cotton fiber quality, although it is not likely to change much
  
• California
  will have another chance for precipitation next week with moderate snowfall possible in the Sierra Nevada while only light rainfall occurs in the central Valleys
• A
  new snow event “may” occur in the northern U.S. Plains and upper Midwest during the middle part of next week just ahead of returning cold air
• U.S.
  temperatures will trend warmer this week and then cool down in the north-central and western states next week along with western Canada
• Eastern
  Australia will experience favorable drying conditions during the coming week to ten days
  
• Queensland
  coastal areas may experience a boost in rainfall during the second week of the forecast benefiting some sugarcane and eastern most cotton production areas
• Drying
  in interior Queensland and New South Wales will be ideal for advancing winter crop maturation and harvest progress
• Western
  Australia crop weather remains very good for the normal maturation of winter crops and their harvest with little change likely for the next couple of weeks
• Any
  rain that evolves will only briefly disrupt field progress
• India
  weather will be fine for summer crop harvesting and winter crop planting, although a tropical disturbance pushing into southern parts of the nation will induce some local flooding near the lower Andhra Pradesh coast over the next couple of days
• China
  rainfall Monday and early today was in the heart of winter wheat and northern rapeseed production areas and it was all welcome and good for crops
• Rain
  in east-central China Monday will shift southward over the balance of this week and into the coming weekend producing waves of moisture that will improve southern rapeseed establishment and spring development potential
• The
  moisture will also be good for early rice planting in February 2023
• South
  Africa’s summer crop areas will continue to experience alternating periods of rain and sunshine during the next two weeks favoring normal planting and early season crop development
  
• Southeast
  Asia will continue to experience an active weather pattern with nearly all crop areas from Thailand and Vietnam to Indonesia, and the Philippines receiving frequent rain