PDF Attached
Attached
is out futures performance price table. January soybeans climbed to a new high of 11.9675 but ended well off that level from end of week profit taking. Corn struggled to end higher after soybeans and wheat saw selling. US wheat settled mixed.
La
Nina is strongest in nearly a decade.
MOST
IMPORTANT WEATHER IN COMING WEEK
- Brazil’s
center west, center south and interior southern agricultural regions will be drying down during the next seven to perhaps as many as ten days - The
environment will be mostly good for fieldwork, but areas that failed to get good rain this week will experience a rising level of stress - Most
of the stressed crop areas will be in southwestern Mato Grosso, Bolivia, far northwestern Mato Grosso do Sul, far southern Parana, western and southern Rio Grande do Sul and far southern Paraguay - Rain
is supposed to return to center west and center south Brazil Nov. 29-Dec. 2 and that will be the next most important period for Brazil crop weather - Brazil’s
far south and southern Paraguay will get some extremely important rainfall late next week and into the following weekend
- Drought
relief is expected, but there may be need for follow up rain - Some
of this rain should shift northward into center west and center south Brazil Nov. 29-Dec. 2 and that will be the next most important period for Brazil crop areas - Argentina
was dry again Thursday and the soil is firming up once again raising the need for significant rain soon - Crop
stress will continue to increase through the weekend - Rain
is expected starting in the far southwest Monday and shift northeast across the nation Tuesday into Thursday - The
greatest rainfall is expected in northeastern Argentina, but most areas will get at least some rain to temporarily east dryness - Follow
up rain will be very important in December - South
America temperatures will be heating up in Bolivia, Paraguay, parts of Argentina and in the drier areas of southwestern Mato Grosso and far northwestern Mato Grosso do Sul in this coming week
- Temperatures
in the remainder of Brazil will be more seasonable with a slight cooler bias in the northeast - U.S.
hard red winter wheat areas will get some very important moisture this weekend and early next week - Short
term improvements in topsoil moisture will occur in many areas, although amounts in western Kansas, eastern Colorado and southwestern Nebraska will remain a little too light for the kind of bolstering that is needed - Eastern
crop areas will be wettest - U.S.
Midwest precipitation this weekend and next week will stall late season fieldwork, ensure moisture abundance in soft wheat areas and help reduce the significance of La Nina based drying in the western Corn Belt during the heart of winter this year - U.S.
Delta rain is most likely Sunday and again during mid-week next week - The
precipitation will disrupt farming activity, but it will prove beneficial for winter crop establishment - U.S.
Southeastern states will also receive rain during mid-week next week and again in the following weekend with favorable drying expected prior to that period of time - U.S.
temperatures will be warmer than usual during the coming week with some cooling occurring in the middle to latter part of next week and into the following weekend - Temperatures
will bounce around a little more in late November and early December - West
Texas cotton areas may get a little rain to disrupt fieldwork briefly Sunday and Monday – no harm will come to fiber quality - U.S.
Pacific Northwest will experience brief periods of rain and mountain snow with some occasional breezy conditions along the coast during the next ten days - Russia’s
Southern Region and western Kazakhstan will receive some light precipitation in the coming week - This
will include the lower Volga River Basin where it has been dry for a very long period of time - Moisture
totals will be light and much more precipitation will still be needed prior to spring - Cold
temperatures continued overnight in parts of southern Russia and Ukraine, but damage potentials for winter crops have been mostly low except possibly Thursday when positive and negative single digit readings occurred in a few snow free crop areas - China’s
recent rain in the North China Plain and Yellow River Basin along with rain and snow in the northeastern provinces has bolster soil moisture in a substantial manner - Precipitation
at this time of year is rarely as great as it was this week and the resulting moisture will carry winter crops for a long distance through the balance of autumn and early winter - Additional
precipitation will impact China’s Yellow River Basin and North China Plain this weekend, but only lightly and briefly - East-central
China (areas between the Yellow and Yangtze Rivers) will become a little too wet in the next ten days as frequent rain falls - Most
of the wheat and rapeseed has been planted, but too much moisture could cause some areas of standing water that might smother the young crop – drying will be needed soon - Southern
India could be threatened by a developing tropical cyclone during the middle to latter part of next week - Until
then good farming activity and crop development potential will continue nationwide - North
Africa will have a great opportunity to receive rain during the coming week improving wheat and barley planting and establishment potentials - The
rain will start in Algeria and Tunisia over the weekend and early next week with Morocco getting some rain late next week and into the following weekend - Indonesia
and Malaysia rainfall has been favorably distributed recently and the trend will continue for the next ten days benefiting most crops - Mainland
areas of Southeast Asia have been trending drier recently and this trend will continue into next week
- The
drier weather will be very good for most of the region, especially Vietnam where excessive rains have occurred since Oct. 4 - Philippines
rainfall will be erratic and mostly light over the coming ten days - Excessive
precipitation occurred in association with frequent storms that moved through the region during October and early November, but those have now ended and drying will be welcome for a while - Australia
precipitation will be erratic and light over the next ten days similar to that of recent days resulting in favorable winter crop maturation and harvest progress - Rain
is still needed in dryland summer crop areas of Queensland and parts of New South Wales to induce better crop development potentials - Greater
rain is expected in December - Temperatures
will be warm to hot in parts of the central and interior east over the coming week - Recent
excessive heat has stress early season crops in interior Queensland and some livestock - Significant
rain and cooling are needed away from the coast - South
Africa rainfall Thursday was mostly confined to the south and east - Temperatures
were seasonably warm - South
Africa will experience some periodic shower and thunderstorm activity over the next ten days - Daily
rainfall is expected to be erratic and light to locally moderate, but most areas will eventually be impacted - All
of the moisture will be welcome, but greater rain will still be needed especially in the far western summer crop areas and across parts of Limpopo - Interior
portions of Europe will continue to see unusually tranquil weather for a while as a dominating high pressure ridge aloft prevails
- Winter
crops have established and some in the east are trending dormant - Winter
crops in Spain are being planted and should be establishing relatively well - Southeast
Canada’s grain and oilseed areas will experience a little precipitation again periodically over the next ten days - Dry
weather would be best for a few weeks to finish up this year’s harvest - Southern
Oscillation Index was +7.44 this morning; the index will rise additionally into the weekend, but its rate of increase will be slowed.
- Mexico
precipitation will be quite limited over the coming week favoring summer crop maturation
- Drying
is likely in the southeast after remnants of Hurricane reached the region recently - Portions
of Central America will remain wetter than usual into the weekend, but the greatest rain from Hurricane Iota is over
- West-central
Africa will experience erratic rain through the next ten days favoring crop areas close to the coast
- Daily
rainfall is expected to be decreasing as time moves along which is normal for this time of year - East-central
Africa rain will be erratic and light over the coming week - New
Zealand rainfall will increase in North Island during the coming week while drier biased conditions occur in South Island - Temperatures
will be a little cooler than usual
Source:
World Weather Inc. and FI
Monday,
Nov. 23:
- USDA
weekly corn, soybean, wheat export inspections, 11am - China
customs publishes trade data on corn, wheat, sugar, cotton imports - U.S.
monthly cold storage stocks of beef, pork, poultry, 3pm - U.S.
winter wheat conditions; harvest for soybeans, corn, cotton, 4pm - Ivory
Coast cocoa arrivals - Monthly
MARS bulletin on crop conditions in Europe - EU
weekly grain, oilseed import and export data - EARNINGS:
Sime Darby Plantation - HOLIDAY:
Argentina, Japan
Tuesday,
Nov. 24:
- U.S.
chicken slaughter in October - World
palm oil virtual exhibition and conference, day 1 - Itau
webinar on Brazilian agribusiness outlook - International
Sugar Organization seminar - Brazil
Unica cane crush, sugar production (tentative)
Wednesday,
Nov. 25:
- EIA
U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production - World
palm oil virtual exhibition and conference, day 2 - China
Oct. trade data, including country breakdowns for soybeans and pork - Malaysia
Nov. 1-25 palm oil export data - EARNINGS:
IJM Plantations
Thursday,
Nov. 26:
- World
palm oil virtual exhibition and conference, day 3 - Brazil
grain exporters’ group meeting - International
Grains Council monthly supply and demand report - Port
of Rouen data on French grain exports - HOLIDAY:
U.S. (Thanksgiving)
Friday,
Nov. 27:
- USDA
weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am - ICE
Commitments of Traders report, 1:30pm ET (6:30pm London) - NOTE:
CFTC Commitments of Traders report, usually released on Fridays, will be issued on Monday, Nov. 30, due to Thanksgiving holiday - FranceAgriMer
weekly update on crop conditions
Source:
Bloomberg and FI
The
traditional fund position for futures only soybeans was not a new record that was expected. It declined from the record made November 10 of 282,075 contracts to 276,343 contracts. The traditional fund position in futures only corn was 411,500 contracts.
Note the record was 498,177 as of 2/1/2011.
Macros
Canadian
Retail Sales Ex-Auto (M/M) Sep: 1.0% (est 0.0%; prev 0.5%)
Canadian
Retail Sales (M/M) Sep: 1.1% (est 0.2%; prev 0.4%)
Corn.
-
Some
traders are noting the increase in CBOT futures are related to money flow. South American weather will again be in focus next week as Argentina is expected to see rain.
-
We
could see USDA taking SA soybean and corn production down a decent amount in what used to be an uneventful December S&D update.
-
Ukraine’s
grain harvest is 95 percent complete. 24.5 million tons of corn was collected using government data.
-
Japan
recently culled 1.3 million chickens due to bird flu. Note Japan feedgrain imports during September were higher than a year ago.
Corn
Export Developments
-
USDA
reported 24-hour sales of: -
Export
sales of 158,270 tons of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2020/2021 marketing year -
Export
sales of 131,000 tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2020/2021 marketing year.
-
South
Korea’s NOFI bought 200,000 tons of corn, optional origin. -
66,000
tons for arrival around April 30 at $243.20 a ton c&f -
68,000
tons for arrival around May 15 at $241.99 a ton c&f -
66,000
tons for arrival around May 25 at $241.99 a ton c&f -
South
Korea’s FLC bought 68,000 tons of corn, optional origin, at $241.99/ton c&f for arrival between May 20 and May 30.
Updated
11/20/20 – upward target revised 5 cents lower
March
corn is seen trading up into the $4.40‐$4.50 area.