PDF Attached

 

Attached
is out futures performance price table.  January soybeans climbed to a new high of 11.9675 but ended well off that level from end of week profit taking.  Corn struggled to end higher after soybeans and wheat saw selling.  US wheat settled mixed. 

 

Weather

 

La
Nina is strongest in nearly a decade. 

 

 

MOST
IMPORTANT WEATHER IN COMING WEEK

  • Brazil’s
    center west, center south and interior southern agricultural regions will be drying down during the next seven to perhaps as many as ten days
    • The
      environment will be mostly good for fieldwork, but areas that failed to get good rain this week will experience a rising level of stress
      • Most
        of the stressed crop areas will be in southwestern Mato Grosso, Bolivia, far northwestern Mato Grosso do Sul, far southern Parana, western and southern Rio Grande do Sul and far southern Paraguay
    • Rain
      is supposed to return to center west and center south Brazil Nov. 29-Dec. 2 and that will be the next most important period for Brazil crop weather
  • Brazil’s
    far south and southern Paraguay will get some extremely important rainfall late next week and into the following weekend
    • Drought
      relief is expected, but there may be need for follow up rain
    • Some
      of this rain should shift northward into center west and center south Brazil Nov. 29-Dec. 2 and that will be the next most important period for Brazil crop areas
  • Argentina
    was dry again Thursday and the soil is firming up once again raising the need for significant rain soon
    • Crop
      stress will continue to increase through the weekend
    • Rain
      is expected starting in the far southwest Monday and shift northeast across the nation Tuesday into Thursday
      • The
        greatest rainfall is expected in northeastern Argentina, but most areas will get at least some rain to temporarily east dryness
    • Follow
      up rain will be very important in December
  • South
    America temperatures will be heating up in Bolivia, Paraguay, parts of Argentina and in the drier areas of southwestern Mato Grosso and far northwestern Mato Grosso do Sul in this coming week
    • Temperatures
      in the remainder of Brazil will be more seasonable with a slight cooler bias in the northeast
  • U.S.
    hard red winter wheat areas will get some very important moisture this weekend and early next week
    • Short
      term improvements in topsoil moisture will occur in many areas, although amounts in western Kansas, eastern Colorado and southwestern Nebraska will remain a little too light for the kind of bolstering that is needed
    • Eastern
      crop areas will be wettest
  • U.S.
    Midwest precipitation this weekend and next week will stall late season fieldwork, ensure moisture abundance in soft wheat areas and help reduce the significance of La Nina based drying in the western Corn Belt during the heart of winter this year
  • U.S.
    Delta rain is most likely Sunday and again during mid-week next week
    • The
      precipitation will disrupt farming activity, but it will prove beneficial for winter crop establishment
  • U.S.
    Southeastern states will also receive rain during mid-week next week and again in the following weekend with favorable drying expected prior to that period of time
  • U.S.
    temperatures will be warmer than usual during the coming week with some cooling occurring in the middle to latter part of next week and into the following weekend
    • Temperatures
      will bounce around a little more in late November and early December
  • West
    Texas cotton areas may get a little rain to disrupt fieldwork briefly Sunday and Monday – no harm will come to fiber quality
  • U.S.
    Pacific Northwest will experience brief periods of rain and mountain snow with some occasional breezy conditions along the coast during the next ten days
  • Russia’s
    Southern Region and western Kazakhstan will receive some light precipitation in the coming week
    • This
      will include the lower Volga River Basin where it has been dry for a very long period of time
      • Moisture
        totals will be light and much more precipitation will still be needed prior to spring
  • Cold
    temperatures continued overnight in parts of southern Russia and Ukraine, but damage potentials for winter crops have been mostly low except possibly Thursday when positive and negative single digit readings occurred in a few snow free crop areas
  • China’s
    recent rain in the North China Plain and Yellow River Basin along with rain and snow in the northeastern provinces has bolster soil moisture in a substantial manner
    • Precipitation
      at this time of year is rarely as great as it was this week and the resulting moisture will carry winter crops for a long distance through the balance of autumn and early winter
  • Additional
    precipitation will impact China’s Yellow River Basin and North China Plain this weekend, but only lightly and briefly
    • East-central
      China (areas between the Yellow and Yangtze Rivers) will become a little too wet in the next ten days as frequent rain falls
      • Most
        of the wheat and rapeseed has been planted, but too much moisture could cause some areas of standing water that might smother the young crop – drying will be needed soon
  • Southern
    India could be threatened by a developing tropical cyclone during the middle to latter part of next week
    • Until
      then good farming activity and crop development potential will continue nationwide
  • North
    Africa will have a great opportunity to receive rain during the coming week improving wheat and barley planting and establishment potentials
    • The
      rain will start in Algeria and Tunisia over the weekend and early next week with Morocco getting some rain late next week and into the following weekend
  • Indonesia
    and Malaysia rainfall has been favorably distributed recently and the trend will continue for the next ten days benefiting most crops
  • Mainland
    areas of Southeast Asia have been trending drier recently and this trend will continue into next week
    • The
      drier weather will be very good for most of the region, especially Vietnam where excessive rains have occurred since Oct. 4
  • Philippines
    rainfall will be erratic and mostly light over the coming ten days
    • Excessive
      precipitation occurred in association with frequent storms that moved through the region during October and early November, but those have now ended and drying will be welcome for a while
  • Australia
    precipitation will be erratic and light over the next ten days similar to that of recent days resulting in favorable winter crop maturation and harvest progress
    • Rain
      is still needed in dryland summer crop areas of Queensland and parts of New South Wales to induce better crop development potentials
      • Greater
        rain is expected in December
    • Temperatures
      will be warm to hot in parts of the central and interior east over the coming week
      • Recent
        excessive heat has stress early season crops in interior Queensland and some livestock
        • Significant
          rain and cooling are needed away from the coast
  • South
    Africa rainfall Thursday was mostly confined to the south and east
    • Temperatures
      were seasonably warm
  • South
    Africa will experience some periodic shower and thunderstorm activity over the next ten days
    • Daily
      rainfall  is expected to be erratic and light to locally moderate, but most areas will eventually be impacted
    • All
      of the moisture will be welcome, but greater rain will still be needed especially in the far western summer crop areas and across parts of Limpopo
  • Interior
    portions of Europe will continue to see unusually tranquil weather for a while as a dominating high pressure ridge aloft prevails
    • Winter
      crops have established and some in the east are trending dormant
    • Winter
      crops in Spain are being planted and should be establishing relatively well
  • Southeast
    Canada’s grain and oilseed areas will experience a little precipitation again periodically over the next ten days
    • Dry
      weather would be best for a few weeks to finish up this year’s harvest
  • Southern
    Oscillation Index was +7.44 this morning; the index will rise additionally into the weekend, but its rate of increase will be slowed.
  • Mexico
    precipitation will be quite limited over the coming week favoring summer crop maturation
    • Drying
      is likely in the southeast after remnants of Hurricane reached the region recently
  • Portions
    of Central America will remain wetter than usual into the weekend, but the greatest rain from Hurricane Iota is over
  • West-central
    Africa will experience erratic rain through the next ten days favoring crop areas close to the coast
    • Daily
      rainfall is expected to be decreasing as time moves along which is normal for this time of year
  • East-central
    Africa rain will be erratic and light over the coming week
  • New
    Zealand rainfall will increase in North Island during the coming week while drier biased conditions occur in South Island
    • Temperatures
      will be a little cooler than usual

Source:
World Weather Inc. and FI

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Monday,
Nov. 23:

  • USDA
    weekly corn, soybean, wheat export inspections, 11am
  • China
    customs publishes trade data on corn, wheat, sugar, cotton imports
  • U.S.
    monthly cold storage stocks of beef, pork, poultry, 3pm
  • U.S.
    winter wheat conditions; harvest for soybeans, corn, cotton, 4pm
  • Ivory
    Coast cocoa arrivals
  • Monthly
    MARS bulletin on crop conditions in Europe
  • EU
    weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
  • EARNINGS:
    Sime Darby Plantation
  • HOLIDAY:
    Argentina, Japan

Tuesday,
Nov. 24:

  • U.S.
    chicken slaughter in October
  • World
    palm oil virtual exhibition and conference, day 1
  • Itau
    webinar on Brazilian agribusiness outlook
  • International
    Sugar Organization seminar
  • Brazil
    Unica cane crush, sugar production (tentative)

Wednesday,
Nov. 25:

  • EIA
    U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production
  • World
    palm oil virtual exhibition and conference, day 2
  • China
    Oct. trade data, including country breakdowns for soybeans and pork
  • Malaysia
    Nov. 1-25 palm oil export data
  • EARNINGS:
    IJM Plantations

Thursday,
Nov. 26:

  • World
    palm oil virtual exhibition and conference, day 3
  • Brazil
    grain exporters’ group meeting
  • International
    Grains Council monthly supply and demand report
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • HOLIDAY:
    U.S. (Thanksgiving)

Friday,
Nov. 27:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • ICE
    Commitments of Traders report, 1:30pm ET (6:30pm London)
  • NOTE:
    CFTC Commitments of Traders report, usually released on Fridays, will be issued on Monday, Nov. 30, due to Thanksgiving holiday
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

CFTC
Commitment of Traders

The
traditional fund position for futures only soybeans was not a new record that was expected.  It declined from the record made November 10 of 282,075 contracts to 276,343 contracts.  The traditional fund position in futures only corn was 411,500 contracts. 
Note the record was 498,177 as of 2/1/2011. 

 

 

 

 

 

Macros

Canadian
Retail Sales Ex-Auto (M/M) Sep: 1.0% (est 0.0%; prev 0.5%)

Canadian
Retail Sales (M/M) Sep: 1.1% (est 0.2%; prev 0.4%)

 

Corn.

  • Some
    traders are noting the increase in CBOT futures are related to money flow.  South American weather will again be in focus next week as Argentina is expected to see rain. 
  • We
    could see USDA taking SA soybean and corn production down a decent amount in what used to be an uneventful December S&D update. 
  • Ukraine’s
    grain harvest is 95 percent complete.  24.5 million tons of corn was collected using government data. 
  • Japan
    recently culled 1.3 million chickens due to bird flu.  Note Japan feedgrain imports during September were higher than a year ago. 

 

 

 

Corn
Export Developments

  • USDA
    reported 24-hour sales of:
    • Export
      sales of 158,270 tons of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2020/2021 marketing year
    • Export
      sales of 131,000 tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2020/2021 marketing year. 

  • South
    Korea’s NOFI bought 200,000 tons of corn, optional origin. 
    • 66,000
      tons for arrival around April 30 at $243.20 a ton c&f
    • 68,000
      tons for arrival around May 15 at $241.99 a ton c&f
    • 66,000
      tons for arrival around May 25 at $241.99 a ton c&f
  • South
    Korea’s FLC bought 68,000 tons of corn, optional origin, at $241.99/ton c&f for arrival between May 20 and May 30. 

 

Updated
11/20/20 – upward target revised 5 cents lower

March
corn is seen trading up into the $4.40‐$4.50 area.

 

Soybean
complex
.
 

  • Ukraine’s
    economy ministry projected the 2020 sunflower crop at 13 million tons, down from 15.3 million in 2019. 

 

Oilseeds
Export Developments

 

Note
there are a handful of years La Nina event had little impact on Argentina’s yield (2010 for example), but we are not sure this year is one of those exceptions. 

 

Updated
11/19/20

January
soybeans are seen in a $11.40‐$12.10 range

January
soybean meal is seen trading above $4.20 range

January
soybean oil is seen in a 37.00-39.00 cent range.

 

Wheat

  • Australian hard wheat with
    14% protein was quoted this week in Vietnam at $290 a ton. (Reuters)

 

 

Export
Developments.

  • Thailand
    this week bought 60,000 tons of US wheat for April shipment.  They paid around $265-$270 a ton c&f for white wheat and $290-$295 a ton for 14.5% spring wheat.
  • Taiwan
    seeks 82,220 tons of US wheat on November 25 for Jan/Feb arrival.  It includes hard red winter, northern spring and white wheat. 
  • Jordan
    seeks 120,000 tons of milling wheat on Nov 25 for March-May shipment, depending on origin. 
  • In
    an SBS import tender, on November 25, Japan seeks 80,000 tons of feed wheat and 100,000 tons of feed barley to be loaded by Jan. 31, 2021 and arrive in Japan by Feb. 25, on Nov. 18.
  • Jordan
    seeks 120,000 tons of feed barley on Dec 1. 
  • Qatar
    seeks 100,000 tons of feed barley on December 8, optional origin. 

 

Rice/Other

·        
Turkey seeks 50,000 tons of rice on November 23 for Dec-early Jan shipment.

·        
Syria seeks 37,400 tons of white rice on November 23.  White Chinese/Egyptian short grain white rice of third or fourth class was sought. Shipment is sought within three months of order confirmation. 

·        
Bangladesh seeks 50,000 tons of rice on November 26, valid until December 10, for shipment within 40 days of contract signing.  This is the first import tender in three years. 

·        
Syria seeks 25,000 tons of white rice on December 2. 

 

CBOT
registrations changes Friday night

 

Updated
11/18/20

March
Chicago wheat is seen in a $5.90‐$6.40 range

March
KC wheat is seen in a $5.45‐$5.90 range

March MN wheat
is seen in a $5.40‐$5.85 range

 

Terry Reilly

Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds

Futures International
One Lincoln Center
18 W 140 Butterfield Rd.

Oakbrook Terrace, Il. 60181

W: 312.604.1366

treilly@futures-int.com

ICE IM: 
treilly1

Skype: fi.treilly

 

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