PDF Attached

 

See
soybean section for our updated estimate for US crush. 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

 

 

 

 

MOST
IMPORTANT WEATHER IN THE WORLD

  • Hurricane
    Iota moved inland overnight as a Category Five storm
    • Serious
      damage to personal property has occurred along the upper coast of Nicaragua
    • The
      storm continues to be a weak hurricane at the time of this writing, but will be downgraded to tropical storm status later today and to depression status prior to reaching El Salvador Tuesday morning
    • Most
      of key agricultural areas are in western Honduras and western Nicaragua
      • Coffee,
        citrus, sugarcane, corn, rice, dry beans and other crops are concentrated in western parts of the each nation
        • Flooding
          rain and windy conditions will impact these crops, but damage is expected to be light
        • Some
          coffee bean and citrus fruit droppage is expected
        • Permanent
          damage to tree crops should be low, although a few small limbs may be damaged
        • Sugarcane
          may be twisted and mangled, but lodging may not be serious enough to cut production in a major way
        • Corn,
          dry bean and rice damage is expected because of flooding
    • Iota
      will move over the Pacific later this week and out to sea ending most of the adversity in central America Thursday or early Friday
    • A
      part of Hurricane Iota’s convection will shear off the main storm and move north northwest across Guatemala and Belize to southeastern Mexico resulting in some heavy rainfall in those areas
  • Tropical
    Cyclone Alicia remained over open water in the south-central Indian Ocean Monday and was moving southeast over open water
    • The
      storm is expected to stay far to the east of Mauritius and La Reunion islands in the southeastern Indian Ocean
    • The
      storm poses no threat to land
  • Possible
    tropical disturbance in the southern Caribbean Sea later this week appears to have a smaller potential for evolving into a tropical cyclone today relative to that of Monday
  • Argentina
    was mostly dry Monday except for a few showers in the northwest
  • Not
    much precipitation will fall in Argentina through the weekend, although a few sporadic showers and thunderstorms will occur in the far west and extreme north
  • Argentina
    rainfall next week will advance from southwest to northeast possibly impacting most of the nation, but resulting rainfall will be erratic
    • Resulting
      rainfall will vary from 0.20 to 0.75 inch with a few totals to 1.50 inches
      • The
        rain event will be extremely important, but not likely enough on its own to support long term crop needs; follow up moisture will be crucial in supporting better crop development potential
  • Southern
    Brazil will face two very important rain events
    • The
      first occurs tonight into Thursday from parts of Mato Grosso do Sul into Parana, Sao Paulo and southern Minas Gerais when 0.50 to 1.50 inches of rain and locally more will occur to ease dryness in some very important areas
      • Western
        and northern Parana, extreme southern Mato Grosso do Sul, Sao Paul and southernmost Minas Gerais will get some temporary relief from recent dryness
        • These
          areas will see at least a full week of dry weather following this event making the event extremely important to carry crops through the dry period
    • Rio
      Grande do Sul, southern Paraguay, Santa Catarina and southern Parana will have an opportunity for rain late next week and into the following weekend
      • This
        event will be extremely important because of little to no rain until that time and ongoing warm temperatures
      • Some
        of this region is already quite dry
      • If
        the rain event is missed dryness will recent extreme levels
      • Drought
        is already a concern for parts of this region and the need for rain will be higher a week from now than it is today
      • Rainfall
        should be significant enough to offer some needed relief, but a close watch is warranted because the rain event is more than a week away
  • Bolivia,
    southwestern Mato Grosso and northwestern Mato Grosso do Sul are still dry and not likely to see much rain
    • A
      close watch on these areas is warranted during the next ten days because of dryness that is already present and the potential for ongoing dryness for at least the next week and probably for ten days
      • Crop
        stress will be on the rise for unirrigated areas
  • Temperatures
    will be seasonable in both Brazil and Argentina during the next ten days
  • U.S.
    weather will be tranquil through Friday and then rain is expected
    • Waves
      of rain and some wind will continue in the Pacific Northwest while most key crop areas are left dry
    • Rain
      will develop in the central Plains a part of the northwestern Midwest Friday night and Saturday before moving southeast through the remainder of the nation during the weekend and next Monday
      • Some
        snow is possible, but most of the event will occur as rain
      • Moisture
        totals will be light to moderate and beneficial for winter crops while only briefly limiting fieldwork
    • Southwestern
      and west-central hard red winter wheat areas will not get much moisture, but a few showers will be possible
      • Nebraska
        and northeastern Colorado as well as northern Kansas will receive some welcome moisture
  • U.S.
    hard red winter wheat will be drier biased again most of next week
  • U.S.
    crop area temperatures will be near to above average during much of the next two weeks, although next week may trend cooler in parts of the western states
  • U.S.
    Delta will receive some rain Sunday into early next week delaying fieldwork
  • U.S.
    southeastern states will be dry until early next week with waves of rain are expected Tuesday into the following Friday
    • Some
      of this moisture is overdone in the forecast model runs
  • West
    Texas will remain mostly dry for the next ten days
  • U.S.
    Pacific Northwest weather will remain active through the next ten days with frequent storms impacting shipping in the Puget South
    • Periods
      of rain and mountain snow in the interior Pacific Northwest will be welcome
  • China
    will experience two waves of rain this week with sufficient moisture resulting to bolster topsoil moisture from the Yellow River Basin and North China Plain into the Northeast Provinces and southward to the Yangtze River Basin
    • Moisture
      totals will be greater than usual with 0.40 to 1.50 inches common and local totals of 1.50 to 3.00 inches and possibly more
      • The
        greatest rain will occur from northeastern Sichuan through Shandong and northern Jiangsu to Liaoning and southern Heilongjiang
    • Additional
      rain will fall in east-central China next week maintaining wetter than usual conditions in many wheat and rapeseed production areas
    • China’s
      moisture will notably more than usual and will ensure moisture abundance for all wheat and rapeseed production areas
      • Some
        recently planted crop areas may need drier weather to protect crops from damage
  • North
    Africa reported a few showers Monday in northeastern Algeria, but the region needs greater rain to adequately support autumn planting and wheat and barley
    • Precipitation
      will be erratic and light for a while across all of North Africa
    • A
      boost in rainfall is needed to improve planting prospects
  • India
    rainfall has been concentrated in the far south this week
    • The
      precipitation will continue into Friday
    • Some
      areas will become a little too wet and there is need for drier weather
    • Drying
      should occur during the weekend and early next week
  • Indonesia
    and Malaysia rainfall increased during the weekend benefiting many areas that were drier biased late last week
  • Mainland
    areas of Southeast Asia will trend drier the remainder of this week
    • The
      drier weather will be very good for most of the region, especially Vietnam where excessive rains have occurred since Oct. 4
  • Philippines
    rainfall will be light over the coming ten days
    • Excessive
      precipitation occurred in association with frequent storms that moved through the region during October and early November, but those have now ended and drying will be welcome for a while
  • Australia
    precipitation will be erratic and light over the next ten days similar to that of the weekend resulting in favorable winter crop maturation and harvest progress
    • Excessive
      heat has occurred in Queensland recently with extreme highs of 110 degrees Fahrenheit occurring Monday
      • The
        heat will continue until rain evolves
    • Rain
      is still needed in dryland summer crop areas of Queensland and parts of New South Wales to induce better crop development potentials
      • Greater
        rain is expected in December
    • Temperatures
      will be seasonable with a slight warmer bias in the interior east
  • Portions
    of Russia’s Southern Region will receive additional snow and some rain into Wednesday morning with moisture totals for this entire event that began Sunday night of 0.50 to 1.50 inches and snowfall of 5 to 10 inches and local totals over 12 inches
    • Stress
      to livestock and travel delays are expected, although the snow will melt relatively quickly
    • The
      moisture will improve soil conditions for better crop development in the spring of 2021
      • Much
        of the precipitation will fall a little too late this year to induce better establishment and crops will be left more vulnerable to winterkill this year because of poor establishment
  • Cold
    air in the Russia New Lands and Kazakhstan this week will continue for a few more days
    • Temperatures
      will fall into the positive and negative single digits Fahrenheit over many areas in Russia and in the positive single digits and teens northern Kazakhstan, but most of the coldest air will be east of key winter wheat production areas.
    • The
      coldest air will then settle into eastern Russia with some bitter cold reaching into northeastern China this weekend and next week
    • No
      crop damage is expected
  • South
    Africa rainfall was limited Monday
    • Temperatures
      were seasonably warm
  • South
    Africa will experience some periodic shower and thunderstorm activity over the next ten days
    • Daily
      rainfall  is expected to be sporadic and light to locally moderate
    • All
      of the moisture will be welcome, but greater rain will still be needed especially in the far western summer crop areas and across parts of Limpopo
  • Europe
    weather will continue unusually tranquil for a while as a dominating high pressure ridge aloft prevails
    • Winter
      crops have established and some are trending dormant
    • Winter
      crops in Spain are being planted and should be establishing relatively well
    • Some
      increasing precipitation is expected later this week and into the weekend in western and some central parts of the continent
  • Southeast
    Canada’s grain and oilseed areas will experience a little precipitation again periodically over the next ten days
    • Dry
      weather would be best for a few weeks to finish up this year’s harvest
  • Southern
    Oscillation Index was +5.38 this morning; the index will rise for a while this week
  • Mexico
    precipitation will be quite limited over the coming week favoring summer crop maturation and harvesting
    • Some
      rain will increase this week in the far southeast from remnants of Tropical Cyclone Iota
  • Portions
    of Central America will remain wetter than usual into the weekend
    • Rain
      will be greatest in Guatemala, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Honduras Nicaragua and Panama
      • Hurricane
        Iota will be most responsible for the greatest rain and flooding in Honduras and northern Nicaragua
    • A
      new tropical disturbance in the southern Caribbean Sea will bring additional rain to southern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica late this week and into the weekend
  • West-central
    Africa will experience erratic rain through the next ten days favoring crop areas closest to the coast
    • Daily
      rainfall is expected to be decreasing as time moves along which is normal for this time of year
  • East-central
    Africa rain will be erratic and light over the coming week in Ethiopia while rain occurs frequently from Uganda and southwestern Kenya into Tanzania
    • Ethiopia
      will be wetter next week while showers and thunderstorms continue elsewhere
  • New
    Zealand rainfall will be below average in most of the nation this week except along the immediate west coast where rainfall will be greater than usual
    • Temperatures
      will be seasonable

Source:
World Weather Inc. and FI

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Tuesday,
Nov. 17:

  • New
    Zealand global dairy trade auction
  • Global
    Grain Geneva conference, day 1
  • FranceAgriMer
    monthly crops report
  • U.S.,
    Mexico Sweeteners Outlook USDA

Wednesday,
Nov. 18:

  • EIA
    U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
  • Online
    Asia-Pacific Agri-Food Innovation Summit, day 1
  • Global
    Grain Geneva conference, day 2
  • USDA
    Total Milk Production

Thursday,
Nov. 19:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • Asia-Pacific
    Agri-Food Innovation Summit, day 2
  • Global
    Grain Geneva conference, day 3
  • Vietnam
    farm ministry’s conference on African swine fever, Ho Chi Minh City
  • BASF
    roundtable on sustainability in farming
  • USDA
    Red Meat Production

Friday,
Nov. 20:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • Malaysia
    Nov. 1-20 palm oil export data
  • Asia-Pacific
    Agri-Food Innovation Summit, day 3
  • U.S.
    Cattle on Feed

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

Corn.

  • APK-Inform:
    Ukraine corn production 31.8 million tons from 34.8 million previously.  Grain production 67.1MMT vs. 70.0 previous.  Corn exports are expected at 25.2 million tons from 28.5 million prior. 

 

China’s
Corn Sector
 University
of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2020/11/chinas-corn-sector.html?utm_source=farmdoc+daily+and+Farm+Policy+News+Updates&utm_campaign=5b67635ab0-FDD_RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_2caf2f9764-5b67635ab0-173649469

 

Corn
Export Developments

  • Under
    the 24-hour reporting system, USDA announced private exporters sold 195,000 tons of corn to Mexico. 

  • South
    Korea’s KFA bought 66,000 tons of corn at $242.70/ton c&f from the US or SA for arrival around June 10. 
  • Iranian
    state-owned SLAL seeks up to 60,000 tons of animal feed barley and 60,000 tons of soymeal, on Wednesday, Nov. 18, for shipment in December 2020 and in January 2021.

 

 

Updated
11/10/20

March
corn is seen trading up into the $4.45‐$4.55 area.

 

Soybean
complex
.
 

  • The
    soybean complex traded higher with January soybeans ending up 16.25 cents, December meal up $6.50 and December oil up 7 points. 
  • Unfavorable
    South American weather continues to underpin CBOT soybean futures along with strong US domestic demand.  Nearby soybeans hit a contract high.   China non-GMO soybeans futures hit a 12-year high. 
  • Deral
    on Parana, Brazil crop conditions: 70% of the crop was rated good as of Nov. 16 vs 75% a week earlier and 80% a year ago
  • Mato
    Grosso, northwest Rio Grande do Sul, western Parana and parts of Sao Paulo may will see irregular rain this week, adding stress to crops.  Argentina will see light rain this week and crop stress is expected to increase in Santa Fe, Entre Rios, northeastern
    Buenos Aires and La Pampa. 
  • Brazil
    fob export soybean premiums were sharply higher basis the February and March positions from the late weekend. 
  • Soybean
    and Corn Advisory left their Brazil soybean crop estimate unchanged at 132 million tons. Note Conab last week raised their estimate of the Brazil soybean crop by 1.3 million tons to 134.9 million tons. 
  • Soybean
    and Corn Advisory lowered their estimate of the Argentina soybean crop by 1.0 million tons to 50.0 million tons. 
  • We
    heard China was not in for soybeans on Monday, but traders are hopeful they will be in later this week. 
  • The
    US Soybean Export Council estimated 2020 soybean imports at a record 100 million tons.  95.54 was previous record in 2017. 
  • APK-Inform:
    Ukraine sunflower oil exports are seen 12 percent lower at 6.2 million tons due to production of sunseed at 14.75 million tons. 
  • Despite
    the slightly higher close in soybean oil due to meal/oil spreading, we remain bullish CBOT soybean oil over Indonesian and Malaysian production woes and rising global vegetable oil cash prices. 

 

FI
revision to US crush

Additional
study from USDA NOPA crush report prompted us to upward revise our Sep-Aug soybean crush from 2.186 billion bushels to
2.191 billion, and Oct-Sep product crush from 2.187 billion to 2.193 billion.  USDA is at 2.180 billion for both soybean crop year and product crop year.  Last year the US crushed 2.165 billion bushels during the September through August period.  Look
for USDA to take the crush up 5 to 10 million bushels next month.  A 5-million-bushel increase suggests USDA is looking for a contraction in the monthly crush during the second half of the year relative to last year.  Next, we see USDA NASS reporting the
October crush at 196.7 million bushels (6.35 mil/day), up from 171.0 in September and well up from 187.2 million during October 2019.  A 196.7-million-bushel crush implies a
total US capacity of about 2.39 billion bushels, assuming a 97 percent utilization rate.  We estimate October soybean oil stocks at 1.939 billion pounds, above 1.849 billion at the end of September and compares to 1.820 billion at the end of October
2019.  NOPA’s October yield, although too early to properly project, implies a crop-year NOPA yield of 11.63 versus 11.55 monthly average for 2019-20.  Note this is lose calculation since we averaged the months, not total soybean oil production and total soybean
crush.  After the November crush report, we will get a better understanding for the final USDA yield.  Like exports, we think US monthly crush will be more front loaded this crop year versus 2019-20. 

 

Oilseeds
Export Developments

  • The
    USDA seeks 180 tons of veg oil packaged in 4-liter cans on Nov 17 for use in the McGovern-Dole Food for Export program for shipment to Liberia. Shipment was scheduled for Dec 16-31 and Jan 1-15 (Jan 1-31 for plants at ports).

  • The
    USDA CCC seeks 14,720 tons of soybean oil for Peru on November 19 for Feb 1-10 shipment. 

 

Updated
11/16/20

January
soybeans are seen in a $11.10‐$12.10 range

January
soybean meal is seen trading above $4.20 range

January
soybean oil traded above 37.50 on 11/16.  We think the contract to rally above 38.50.

 

Wheat

  • Wheat
    traded
    two-sided on soybean/wheat and corn/wheat spreading and lack of US export business.  
  • FranceAgriMer
    increased its forecast of French soft wheat exports outside the European Union to 6.85 million tons from 6.7 million tons last month, 49% below 13.46 million tons during 2019-20.
  • Paris (Matif) December milling wheat BL2Z0 closed up 1.0 euro, or 0.4%,
    at 210.25 euros ($249.40) a ton. 

 

Export
Developments.

  • Syria
    seeks 150,000 tons of wheat on November 18. 
  • Pakistan
    seeks 400,000 tons of wheat on November 18 for March arrival. 
  • In an SBS import tender, Japan seeks 80,000 tons of feed wheat and
    100,000 tons of feed barley to be loaded by Jan. 31, 2021 and arrive in Japan by Feb. 25, on Nov. 18.
  • Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of milling wheat on November 18 for LH Mar
    through FH May shipment. shipment. 

 

Rice/Other

·        
Bangladesh seeks 50,000 tons of rice on November 26, valid until December 10, for shipment within 40 days of contract signing.  This is the first import tender in three years. 

·        
Turkey seeks 50,000 tons of rice on November 23 for Dec-early Jan shipment.

·        
Syria seeks 37,400 tons of white rice on November 23.  White Chinese/Egyptian short grain white rice of third or fourth class was sought. Shipment is sought within three months of order confirmation. 

·        
Syria seeks 25,000 tons of white rice on December 2. 

 

Updated 11/14/20 – lowered 5-10 cents

March Chicago wheat is seen in a $5.90‐$6.40 range

March KC wheat is seen in a $5.45‐$5.90 range

March MN wheat is seen in a $5.50‐$6.10 range

 

Terry Reilly

Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds

Futures International
One Lincoln Center
18 W 140 Butterfield Rd.

Oakbrook Terrace, Il. 60181

W: 312.604.1366

treilly@futures-int.com

ICE IM: 
treilly1

Skype: fi.treilly

 

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