PDF Attached
See
soybean section for our updated estimate for US crush.
Weather
and Crop Progress
MOST
IMPORTANT WEATHER IN THE WORLD
- Hurricane
Iota moved inland overnight as a Category Five storm - Serious
damage to personal property has occurred along the upper coast of Nicaragua - The
storm continues to be a weak hurricane at the time of this writing, but will be downgraded to tropical storm status later today and to depression status prior to reaching El Salvador Tuesday morning - Most
of key agricultural areas are in western Honduras and western Nicaragua - Coffee,
citrus, sugarcane, corn, rice, dry beans and other crops are concentrated in western parts of the each nation - Flooding
rain and windy conditions will impact these crops, but damage is expected to be light - Some
coffee bean and citrus fruit droppage is expected - Permanent
damage to tree crops should be low, although a few small limbs may be damaged - Sugarcane
may be twisted and mangled, but lodging may not be serious enough to cut production in a major way - Corn,
dry bean and rice damage is expected because of flooding - Iota
will move over the Pacific later this week and out to sea ending most of the adversity in central America Thursday or early Friday - A
part of Hurricane Iota’s convection will shear off the main storm and move north northwest across Guatemala and Belize to southeastern Mexico resulting in some heavy rainfall in those areas - Tropical
Cyclone Alicia remained over open water in the south-central Indian Ocean Monday and was moving southeast over open water - The
storm is expected to stay far to the east of Mauritius and La Reunion islands in the southeastern Indian Ocean - The
storm poses no threat to land - Possible
tropical disturbance in the southern Caribbean Sea later this week appears to have a smaller potential for evolving into a tropical cyclone today relative to that of Monday - Argentina
was mostly dry Monday except for a few showers in the northwest - Not
much precipitation will fall in Argentina through the weekend, although a few sporadic showers and thunderstorms will occur in the far west and extreme north - Argentina
rainfall next week will advance from southwest to northeast possibly impacting most of the nation, but resulting rainfall will be erratic - Resulting
rainfall will vary from 0.20 to 0.75 inch with a few totals to 1.50 inches - The
rain event will be extremely important, but not likely enough on its own to support long term crop needs; follow up moisture will be crucial in supporting better crop development potential - Southern
Brazil will face two very important rain events - The
first occurs tonight into Thursday from parts of Mato Grosso do Sul into Parana, Sao Paulo and southern Minas Gerais when 0.50 to 1.50 inches of rain and locally more will occur to ease dryness in some very important areas - Western
and northern Parana, extreme southern Mato Grosso do Sul, Sao Paul and southernmost Minas Gerais will get some temporary relief from recent dryness - These
areas will see at least a full week of dry weather following this event making the event extremely important to carry crops through the dry period - Rio
Grande do Sul, southern Paraguay, Santa Catarina and southern Parana will have an opportunity for rain late next week and into the following weekend - This
event will be extremely important because of little to no rain until that time and ongoing warm temperatures - Some
of this region is already quite dry - If
the rain event is missed dryness will recent extreme levels - Drought
is already a concern for parts of this region and the need for rain will be higher a week from now than it is today - Rainfall
should be significant enough to offer some needed relief, but a close watch is warranted because the rain event is more than a week away - Bolivia,
southwestern Mato Grosso and northwestern Mato Grosso do Sul are still dry and not likely to see much rain - A
close watch on these areas is warranted during the next ten days because of dryness that is already present and the potential for ongoing dryness for at least the next week and probably for ten days - Crop
stress will be on the rise for unirrigated areas - Temperatures
will be seasonable in both Brazil and Argentina during the next ten days - U.S.
weather will be tranquil through Friday and then rain is expected - Waves
of rain and some wind will continue in the Pacific Northwest while most key crop areas are left dry - Rain
will develop in the central Plains a part of the northwestern Midwest Friday night and Saturday before moving southeast through the remainder of the nation during the weekend and next Monday
- Some
snow is possible, but most of the event will occur as rain - Moisture
totals will be light to moderate and beneficial for winter crops while only briefly limiting fieldwork - Southwestern
and west-central hard red winter wheat areas will not get much moisture, but a few showers will be possible - Nebraska
and northeastern Colorado as well as northern Kansas will receive some welcome moisture - U.S.
hard red winter wheat will be drier biased again most of next week - U.S.
crop area temperatures will be near to above average during much of the next two weeks, although next week may trend cooler in parts of the western states - U.S.
Delta will receive some rain Sunday into early next week delaying fieldwork - U.S.
southeastern states will be dry until early next week with waves of rain are expected Tuesday into the following Friday - Some
of this moisture is overdone in the forecast model runs - West
Texas will remain mostly dry for the next ten days - U.S.
Pacific Northwest weather will remain active through the next ten days with frequent storms impacting shipping in the Puget South - Periods
of rain and mountain snow in the interior Pacific Northwest will be welcome - China
will experience two waves of rain this week with sufficient moisture resulting to bolster topsoil moisture from the Yellow River Basin and North China Plain into the Northeast Provinces and southward to the Yangtze River Basin - Moisture
totals will be greater than usual with 0.40 to 1.50 inches common and local totals of 1.50 to 3.00 inches and possibly more - The
greatest rain will occur from northeastern Sichuan through Shandong and northern Jiangsu to Liaoning and southern Heilongjiang - Additional
rain will fall in east-central China next week maintaining wetter than usual conditions in many wheat and rapeseed production areas - China’s
moisture will notably more than usual and will ensure moisture abundance for all wheat and rapeseed production areas - Some
recently planted crop areas may need drier weather to protect crops from damage - North
Africa reported a few showers Monday in northeastern Algeria, but the region needs greater rain to adequately support autumn planting and wheat and barley - Precipitation
will be erratic and light for a while across all of North Africa - A
boost in rainfall is needed to improve planting prospects - India
rainfall has been concentrated in the far south this week - The
precipitation will continue into Friday - Some
areas will become a little too wet and there is need for drier weather - Drying
should occur during the weekend and early next week - Indonesia
and Malaysia rainfall increased during the weekend benefiting many areas that were drier biased late last week - Mainland
areas of Southeast Asia will trend drier the remainder of this week - The
drier weather will be very good for most of the region, especially Vietnam where excessive rains have occurred since Oct. 4 - Philippines
rainfall will be light over the coming ten days - Excessive
precipitation occurred in association with frequent storms that moved through the region during October and early November, but those have now ended and drying will be welcome for a while - Australia
precipitation will be erratic and light over the next ten days similar to that of the weekend resulting in favorable winter crop maturation and harvest progress - Excessive
heat has occurred in Queensland recently with extreme highs of 110 degrees Fahrenheit occurring Monday - The
heat will continue until rain evolves - Rain
is still needed in dryland summer crop areas of Queensland and parts of New South Wales to induce better crop development potentials - Greater
rain is expected in December - Temperatures
will be seasonable with a slight warmer bias in the interior east - Portions
of Russia’s Southern Region will receive additional snow and some rain into Wednesday morning with moisture totals for this entire event that began Sunday night of 0.50 to 1.50 inches and snowfall of 5 to 10 inches and local totals over 12 inches
- Stress
to livestock and travel delays are expected, although the snow will melt relatively quickly - The
moisture will improve soil conditions for better crop development in the spring of 2021 - Much
of the precipitation will fall a little too late this year to induce better establishment and crops will be left more vulnerable to winterkill this year because of poor establishment - Cold
air in the Russia New Lands and Kazakhstan this week will continue for a few more days - Temperatures
will fall into the positive and negative single digits Fahrenheit over many areas in Russia and in the positive single digits and teens northern Kazakhstan, but most of the coldest air will be east of key winter wheat production areas.
- The
coldest air will then settle into eastern Russia with some bitter cold reaching into northeastern China this weekend and next week
- No
crop damage is expected - South
Africa rainfall was limited Monday - Temperatures
were seasonably warm - South
Africa will experience some periodic shower and thunderstorm activity over the next ten days - Daily
rainfall is expected to be sporadic and light to locally moderate - All
of the moisture will be welcome, but greater rain will still be needed especially in the far western summer crop areas and across parts of Limpopo - Europe
weather will continue unusually tranquil for a while as a dominating high pressure ridge aloft prevails
- Winter
crops have established and some are trending dormant - Winter
crops in Spain are being planted and should be establishing relatively well - Some
increasing precipitation is expected later this week and into the weekend in western and some central parts of the continent - Southeast
Canada’s grain and oilseed areas will experience a little precipitation again periodically over the next ten days - Dry
weather would be best for a few weeks to finish up this year’s harvest - Southern
Oscillation Index was +5.38 this morning; the index will rise for a while this week - Mexico
precipitation will be quite limited over the coming week favoring summer crop maturation and harvesting
- Some
rain will increase this week in the far southeast from remnants of Tropical Cyclone Iota - Portions
of Central America will remain wetter than usual into the weekend - Rain
will be greatest in Guatemala, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Honduras Nicaragua and Panama
- Hurricane
Iota will be most responsible for the greatest rain and flooding in Honduras and northern Nicaragua
- A
new tropical disturbance in the southern Caribbean Sea will bring additional rain to southern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica late this week and into the weekend
- West-central
Africa will experience erratic rain through the next ten days favoring crop areas closest to the coast
- Daily
rainfall is expected to be decreasing as time moves along which is normal for this time of year - East-central
Africa rain will be erratic and light over the coming week in Ethiopia while rain occurs frequently from Uganda and southwestern Kenya into Tanzania
- Ethiopia
will be wetter next week while showers and thunderstorms continue elsewhere - New
Zealand rainfall will be below average in most of the nation this week except along the immediate west coast where rainfall will be greater than usual - Temperatures
will be seasonable
Source:
World Weather Inc. and FI
Tuesday,
Nov. 17:
- New
Zealand global dairy trade auction - Global
Grain Geneva conference, day 1 - FranceAgriMer
monthly crops report - U.S.,
Mexico Sweeteners Outlook USDA
Wednesday,
Nov. 18:
- EIA
U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am - Online
Asia-Pacific Agri-Food Innovation Summit, day 1 - Global
Grain Geneva conference, day 2 - USDA
Total Milk Production
Thursday,
Nov. 19:
- USDA
weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am - Port
of Rouen data on French grain exports - Asia-Pacific
Agri-Food Innovation Summit, day 2 - Global
Grain Geneva conference, day 3 - Vietnam
farm ministry’s conference on African swine fever, Ho Chi Minh City - BASF
roundtable on sustainability in farming - USDA
Red Meat Production
Friday,
Nov. 20:
- ICE
Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London) - CFTC
commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm - FranceAgriMer
weekly update on crop conditions - Malaysia
Nov. 1-20 palm oil export data - Asia-Pacific
Agri-Food Innovation Summit, day 3 - U.S.
Cattle on Feed
Source:
Bloomberg and FI
Corn.
-
Corn
futures ended 4 cents higher for December and 2.50 higher for March on sharply higher soybeans and a downward revision to Brazil’s corn crop and higher soybeans. Traders are still waiting for confirmation whether China bought US corn over the past two business
days. We may find out in the Thursday export sales report. But assuming they didn’t buy US corn, we show a lower corn export sales estimate relative to last week (see attached sales estimates). However, USDA today did report 195,000 tons of corn was sold
to Mexico. -
Soybean
and Corn Advisory lowered their estimate of the Brazil corn crop by 2 million tons to 106 million tons. The Argentina corn crop was left unchanged at 49.0 million tons.
- APK-Inform:
Ukraine corn production 31.8 million tons from 34.8 million previously. Grain production 67.1MMT vs. 70.0 previous. Corn exports are expected at 25.2 million tons from 28.5 million prior.
-
Germany
may cull another 70,000 chickens due to a H5N8 bird flu outbreak near Rostock.
-
A
Bloomberg survey sees US cattle on feed placements down 9.7 percent from a year ago.
-
A
Bloomberg survey calls for weekly ethanol production to end up unchanged at 977,000 barrels per day from last week and stocks to increase 20.496 million from 20.159 million previous week.
China’s
Corn Sector University
of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Corn
Export Developments
-
Under
the 24-hour reporting system, USDA announced private exporters sold 195,000 tons of corn to Mexico.
-
South
Korea’s KFA bought 66,000 tons of corn at $242.70/ton c&f from the US or SA for arrival around June 10.
-
Iranian
state-owned SLAL seeks up to 60,000 tons of animal feed barley and 60,000 tons of soymeal, on Wednesday, Nov. 18, for shipment in December 2020 and in January 2021.
Updated
11/10/20
March
corn is seen trading up into the $4.45‐$4.55 area.