PDF Attached includes FI’s US acreage table that includes adjustments to canola (+) and spring wheat (-)

 

Note
due to US Veterans Day, EIA data will be released on Thursday am CT and USDA Export Sales on Friday. 
Lack
of direction trade today as the wheat led feedgrains related markets lower.

 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

SA Week 1 Accum Precipitation (mm) Forecast

 

 

MOST
IMPORTANT WEATHER IN THE WORLD

  • Tropical
    Storm Eta became a hurricane this morning and will move inland between Tampa Bay and Cedar Key, Florida Thursday
    • The
      storm center at 0700 EST today was 130 miles south west southwest of Fort Myers, Florida moving north northeasterly at 15 mph and producing 75 mph wind speeds
    • Landfall
      is expected Thursday morning as a tropical storm and quick weakening is expected
      • The
        storm will be downgraded to depression status as it moves across northern parts of the Florida Peninsula
    • Damage
      to citrus is expected to be minimal
    • Property
      damage will be greatest along the coast from Tampa Bay to Cedar Key Florida, but it will be light
  • Tropical
    Storm Theta remains a minimal threat to land in the eastern Atlantic Ocean
    • The
      storm center was 740 miles southwest of the Azores
    • The
      system will lose tropical characteristics and merge with a mid-latitude frontal system late in the weekend and more likely early next week
      • Moisture
        from the system will enhance rain in the United Kingdom next week
  • Tropical
    disturbance over Puerto Rico today was producing heavy rain
    • This
      system will become the next tropical depression after it moves into the Caribbean Sea over the next couple of days
    • The
      system has potential to become Tropical Storm Iota during the weekend or early next week with movement toward Nicaragua and Honduras
  • Santiago
    del Estero, Argentina received some beneficial rainfall overnight, but mostly in western parts of the province
  • Portions
    of western and northern Argentina will get rain over the coming ten days while central and eastern Argentina remains dry
    • Crop
      stress will continue to rise and worry over crop emergence and establishment will continue rising from Santa Fe into Entre Rios, Corrientes and parts of northeastern Buenos Aires
  • Brazil
    weather Tuesday trended drier again except from Mato Grosso do Sul into western and southern Parana and Santa Catarina
    • Rain
      was welcome in these southwestern crop areas with a few local totals of 1.00 to 2.00 inches in central Mato Grosso do Sul
      • Most
        other areas only received light rainfall
    • The
      remainder of Brazil’s crop country was left dry
  • Most
    of Brazil excepting the far northeast and extreme south will get rain at one time or another during the next ten days to two weeks
    • The
      precipitation will be greatest from Mato Grosso through Goias to Minas Gerais and most erratic and light from Rio Grande do Sul to southern Paraguay and southwestern Parana
  • South
    Africa rainfall will continue concentrated on central and some eastern crop areas over the next ten days maintaining a very good outlook for summer coarse grain, oilseed and cotton planting and establishment
    • Greater
      rain may be needed in western summer crop areas soon
    • Winter
      wheat, barley and canola maturation and harvesting are advancing around the periodic rainfall
  • India
    rainfall will continue most significant in the south and periodically in the far eastern states during the next ten days
    • Late
      season summer crop development, maturation and harvesting will advance around the precipitation
    • Winter
      crop planting will also continue to advance most significantly in the central and northern parts of the nation where winter crop establishment has been good thus far
  • Eastern
    China weather is expected to remain mostly very good for the next two weeks
    • Net
      drying through the weekend will promote summer crop harvesting and late season wheat and rapeseed planting
    • Rain
      expected next week from east-central China into the North China Plain and Yellow River Basin will be extremely well timed for winter crop establishment
  • Australia
    precipitation over the next ten days will be erratic and mostly too light to have a big impact on agriculture
    • Dry
      conditions will be perfect maturing winter crops and supporting their harvest
    • Dry
      conditions will also support additional summer crop planting
    • Rain
      is needed for dryland summer crops and not much is expected for a while
  • Russia’s
    Southern Region will experience little precipitation of significance over the next ten days and temperatures will trend cooler
    • The
      environment will push more winter crops from Ukraine and the Balkan Countries of Europe to Kazakhstan into a state of semi-dormancy
      • Recent
        precipitation improved winter crop establishment in many areas, but snow cover will be needed to adequately protect the poorly established winter crops from damage due to periodic bitter cold this winter
  • Most
    other areas in Russia, western Ukraine, Belarus and the Baltic States will have had a favorable winter crop establishment season this year and production potentials are good for the spring
  • Europe
    weather remains unusually tranquil because of a dominating high-pressure ridge aloft that is keeping precipitation limited to northwestern parts of the continent
    • Winter
      crops have established, and some are trending dormancy
    • Winter
      crops in Spain are being planted and should be establishing relatively well
  • North
    Africa is seeking greater rainfall to support the best possible wheat and barley planting this year
    • Some
      planting is under way with late November and December most important for planting and establishment
  • U.S.
    crop weather will be mixed for a while
    • No
      major storm systems are expected for a while
    • Drying
      is needed in the Midwest after abundant precipitation Tuesday
      • Snow
        fell significantly Tuesday from northeastern Nebraska, northwestern Iowa and southeastern South Dakota into northeastern Minnesota with 3 to 7 inches common and local totals to 10 inches
    • Rain
      will impact crops in the southeastern states through Friday
  • U.S.
    hard red winter wheat areas will need more moisture especially in the west to ensure the best emergence and establishment
    • Rain
      in central and eastern wheat areas of Kansas and Nebraska Monday was good for future crop establishment
    • Some
      snow fell in the northwest part of wheat country overnight with accumulations light
    • Another
      precipitation event will impact a part of the region Friday, but only light moisture is expected and areas from western Texas to southeastern Kansas will be wettest
  • U.S.
    Northern Plains have snow on the ground in Most of Montana, northwestern most North Dakota and from central South Dakota into a part of west-central Minnesota
    • Snow
      accumulations in the east Monday and overnight were mostly less than 3.50 inches
  • U.S.
    Delta weather will be good for fieldwork of all kinds during the next ten days
  • U.S.
    Southeastern States will experience delays to farming activity through Friday because of expected rain, but drier weather will soon follow.
  • Waves
    of precipitation are expected in the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin during the next ten days with some rain in central and northern California as well
    • The
      moisture will be welcome and should improve soil moisture for better winter crop establishment
    • Mountain
      snowpack should increase for better runoff in the spring
  • Southeast
    Canada’s grain and oilseed areas will experience a little precipitation today and again Sunday into Monday; dry weather will occur most other days
    • The
      environment will be good for harvesting
  • Typhoon
    Vamco was located 110 miles east of Manila, Philippines today moving west northwesterly and will move across southern Luzon Island today
    • Heavy
      rain, flooding and damaging wind speeds are expected
      • More
        Urban areas will be impacted by this storm than agricultural areas
    • The
      storm will move across the South China Sea late this week with landfall in central Vietnam during the late weekend as a tropical storm or depression
    • Less
      rain is now advertised for central Vietnam relative to that of recent past days
      • Damage
        to crops and property is expected in both countries, although it may not be extensive
  • Vietnam’s
    central coast will receive another 3.00 to 10.00 inches of rain this weekend as Tropical Cyclone Vamco moves across the region
    • Flooding
      has been and will continue a serious impact along the central Vietnam coast where impressive rain totals in the past 30 days
    • More
      disruption to commerce and shipping will occur because of the additional rain
    • This
      is the final tropical cyclone in a long series that has been impacting Vietnam; much improved weather will begin next week
  • Southern
    Oscillation Index was +2.13 this morning; the index will rise later this week
  • Mexico
    precipitation will be quite limited over the coming week favoring summer crop maturation and harvesting
  • Portions
    of Central America will remain wetter than usual into mid-month
    • Rain
      will be greatest in Guatemala, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Nicaragua and Panama

·        
West-central Africa will experience erratic rain through the next ten days favoring crop areas closest to the coast

    • Daily
      rainfall is expected to be decreasing as time moves along which is normal for this time of year

·        
East-central Africa rain will be erratic and light over the coming week in Ethiopia while rain occurs frequently from Uganda and southwestern Kenya into Tanzania

    • Ethiopia
      will be wetter next week while showers and thunderstorms continue elsewhere

·        
New Zealand rainfall will be near to above average in North Island while near to below average in South Island

    • Temperatures
      will be near to below average

Source: 
World Weather Inc. 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Wednesday,
Nov. 11:

  • HOLIDAY:
    U.S. (Veterans Day, federal govt closed, CME trading unaffected), France, Canada

Thursday,
Nov. 12:

  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • Vietnam
    customs data on coffee, rice and rubber exports in October
  • EIA
    U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production
  • EARNINGS:
    BayWa, Marfrig

Friday,
Nov. 13:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
    • NOTE:
      CFTC Commitments of Traders report, usually released on Fridays, is scheduled for Monday, Nov. 16, due to U.S. federal holiday
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • New
    Zealand Food Prices

Saturday,
Nov. 14:

  • China
    Animal Agriculture Association summit on hog recovery, ASF vaccine progress

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

Macros

OPEC
Sees 2020 World Oil Demand Falling By 9.75Mln BPD (prev 9.47Mln BPD Drop)

 

Corn.

  • Another
    session of higher prices early on follow though buying was buoyed by lack of news and data along with lower wheat that sparked profit taking.  You can argue soybean/corn spreading for today’s trade. 
  • US
    EIA data is delayed one day (out Thursday at 10:00 CT) likely due to Veterans Day. 
  • The
    December/March corn spread has collapsed over the past several sessions in part to fund rolling and anticipation US corn exports will surge after the end of the year.  China commitments for US corn are running nearly 11 million tons (not including 6 million
    tons for unknown).  Of the nearly 11 million tons, shipments are running just over 2 million tons.  Some think it’s a gamble to see if US corn exports reach USDA’s projection as there are differing opinions in China’s 2020 crop production.  Yesterday in its
    monthly S&D update, China said the typhoon storms had minimal impact on production while last week the USDA Attaché said they lost a large amount of the crop.  USDA official raised China corn imports to 13 million tons, likely considering what is on the USDA
    export sales book.  Meanwhile China corn imports in the CASDE S&D updated were unchanged at 7 million tons.  We are not siding with China’s outlook, just pointing out there is now a big variance in opinions. 
  • Today
    was day 4 of the GS roll.

·        
Germany’s 2020 corn was projected to increase about 10% on the year to 4.03 million tons – Germany’s association of farm cooperatives.  This has not slowed EU’s appetite for feedgrains demand.

  • Ukraine
    corn prices are up $10/ton over the past few days to $235-$272/ton, according to APK-Inform. 

·        
Louis-Dreyfus agreed to sell a 45% indirect stake in Louis Dreyfus Co. to Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund ADQ.  

·        
The USDA Broiler report is delayed one day. 

·        
A Bloomberg survey calls for weekly ethanol production to be up to 975 thousand barrels from 961 thousand from the previous week, and stocks to end up at 20.114 million barrels, up from 19.675 million. 

 

Corn
Export Developments

  • Results
    awaited: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL seeks up to 60,000 tons of animal feed corn, 60,000 tons of feed barley and 60,000 tons of soymeal, on Wednesday, Nov. 11, for shipment in December 2020 and in January 2021.

 

 

 

Updated
11/10/20

March
corn is seen trading up into the $4.45-$4.55 area. 

 

Soybean
complex
.
 

  • Eta
    reached hurricane intensity 130 miles west southwest of Fort Myers, Florida.  The 7-day forecast turned more favorable for Southern Brazil, but Argentina is expected to see ongoing net drying through the end of the month.  Thunderstorms and heavy rain seen
    over some parts of Indonesia’s Sumatra and Java on Wednesday. 
  • Brail
    soybean basis is starting to collapse with the rise in CBOT futures.  The real is weak and producers are not selling.  We are hearing consumer bids are lower on basis. 

  • An
    Argentina crushing plant had an accidental explosion yesterday in Saforcada and operations were grounded yesterday for an investigation. 
  • Argentina’s
    grain receivers union (Urgara) mentioned labor talks are not progressing well.  This is bullish for soybeans and soybean meal. 
  • We
    heard China bought at least one cargo of soybeans from Brazil for August 2021 shipment. 

 

 

Oilseeds
Export Developments

  • The
    USDA seeks 180 tons of veg oil packaged in 4-liter cans on Nov 17 for use in the McGovern-Dole Food for Export program for shipment to Liberia. Shipment was scheduled for Dec 16-31 and Jan 1-15 (Jan 1-31 for plants at ports).

 

 

 

 

Updated
11/10/20

January
soybeans are seen in a $11.10-$12.10 range

January
soybean meal is seen trading above $4.20 range

January
soybean oil is seen trading above 37.50. 

 

Wheat

  • We
    lowered out outlook for the 2021 US spring wheat area by a few hundred thousand acres to 12.8 million, up from 12.250 million in 2020, and drum down 50 thousand to 1.765 million, up from 1.684 million in 2020.  We have winter wheat at 31.175 million acres,
    up from 30.415 million from 2020.  We see canola at 2.020 million acres, up from 1.852 million for 2020. 
  • On
    Thursday Algeria is in for 50,000 tons of milling wheat. 

  • Paris
    (Matif) December wheat was down 0.75 euro higher at 211.25 euros. 

 

Export
Developments.

  • Japan
    is in for 102,011 tons of food wheat. 
  • In
    an SBS import tender, Japan seeks 80,000 tons of feed wheat and 100,000 tons of feed barley to be loaded by Jan. 31, 2021 and arrive in Japan by Feb. 25, on Nov. 18.
  • Algeria
    seeks 50,000 tons of wheat on November 12 for December and/or January shipment. 
  • Results
    awaited:
    Iranian
    state agency the Government Trading Corporation (GTC) seeks up to 60,000 tons of milling wheat, 30,000 tons of soyoil and 30,000 tons of sunflower oil, on Tuesday, Nov. 10, for shipment in December 2020 and in January 2021.
  • Results
    awaited: Syria seeks 150,000 tons of wheat on November 9.  They were in on October 28 for 200,000 tons. 
  • Jordan
    seeks 120,000 tons of feed barley on November 17 for Feb/Mar shipment. 
  • Jordan
    seeks 120,000 tons of milling wheat on November 18 for LH Mar through FH May shipment. shipment. 

 

Rice/Other

·        
Syria seeks 37,400 tons of white rice on November 23.  White Chinese/Egyptian short grain white rice of third or fourth class was sought. Shipment is sought within three months of order confirmation. 

·        
Syria seeks 25,000 tons of white rice on December 2. 

 

 

 

Updated
11/10/20

March
Chicago wheat is seen in a $6.05-$6.45 range

March
KC wheat is seen in a $5.50-$5.90 range

March
MN wheat is seen in a $5.60-$6.10 range

 

Terry Reilly

Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds

Futures International
One Lincoln Center
18 W 140 Butterfield Rd.

Oakbrook Terrace, Il. 60181

W: 312.604.1366

treilly@futures-int.com

ICE IM: 
treilly1

Skype: fi.treilly

 

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