PDF Attached

 

USDA
will release its annual baseline S&D’s Friday at 2 p.m. CST

https://www.usda.gov/media/press-releases/2020/10/26/usda-announces-early-release-select-commodity-tables-usdas

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

AREAS
OF GREATEST MARKET INTEREST

  • Russia’s
    Southern Region will be trending cooler over the next week to ten days limiting the potential for additional crop improvement from any new moisture that occurs
    • Recent
      precipitation gave some crops in western parts of Russia’s Southern Region and a part of Ukraine a late season lift in soil moisture that will help improve crops in the spring
      • Some
        improvement has occurred recently, but much of the precipitation in eastern Ukraine and western parts of Russia’s Southern Region was too late to induce better crop establishment prior to dormancy
        • That
          leaves crops more vulnerable to winterkill this year if there is not substantial snow on the ground during periods of harsh temperatures
    • Eastern
      portions of Russia’s Southern Region and Western Kazakhstan failed to get significant moisture this autumn raising worry over small grain production next spring
    • Overall,
      World Weather, Inc. believes enough of Ukraine and Russia’s Central Region received sufficient moisture this autumn to leave crops poised for improvement in the spring as long as winterkill is kept to a minimum. Crops in Russia’s Southern Region got their
      moisture much later and the risk of loss during the winter is higher than in production areas to the west and north.
  • Argentina’s
    dryness in central and eastern summer crop areas during the next ten days to two weeks will maintain worry over summer crop emergence, establishment and late planting
    • Fieldwork
      should advance well for a little while longer, but once the ground dries out fieldwork may slow and there will certainly be delays in crop emergence and establishment
    • There
      is still time for improvement, but there is not much rain in the pipeline today
  • Center
    west and southern Brazil will continue dry through the weekend, but scattered showers and thunderstorms expected next week will bring timely relief to many crop areas
    • Improved
      emergence and establishment conditions will occur to many areas that have been quite dry recently from southern Minas Gerais to Rio Grande do Sul and a few areas into Mato Grosso do Sul and Paraguay
      • A
        close watch will be needed on the distribution of rain next week to make sure all crop areas get needed moisture
      • There
        will be an ongoing need for more precipitation, however
  • U.S.
    high Plains region will not get much precipitation of significance for a while especially not in the southwestern Plains
    • Winter
      crop conditions have been improving after recent precipitation, but some areas still need greater precipitation
  • Tropical
    Depression Eta was located over central Honduras early this morning
    • The
      storm may dissipate to a remnant low pressure center later today and tonight, but once that circulation center moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea Friday it will re-develop into a tropical storm
    • Landfall
      in Cuba is expected Sunday or Monday and then a turn to the northwest into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico is expected
    • Today’s
      longer range models have been suggesting a threat to the southeastern United States near mid-month from this storm; the European model run suggests Louisiana might be at risk again
  • Tropical
    Storm Goni will weaken to a depression as it moves into central Vietnam tonight and Friday and the system is not expected to produce nearly as much damaging wind and flooding as once feared
    • Landfall
      is expected near Qui Nhon
    • Goni
      was 216 miles east southeast of Da Nang, Vietnam this morning
    • Rainfall
      of 3.00 to more than 8.00 inches will accompany the storm inland over a large part of the middle Vietnam coast
  • Tropical
    Storm Astani will move through the Bashi Channel Friday, move to a position south of Hong Kong Saturday and then turn to the southeast toward central Vietnam during the latter part of the weekend with landfall early next week
    • Astani’s
      landfall may be south of Qui Nhon, Vietnam this weekend not far from where Tropical Storm Goni is expected to make landfall
    • The
      storm was 399 miles south of Okinawa, Japan this morning
      • Rainfall
        will be less than 4.00 inches at the time of landfall
  • Another
    tropical weather system will impact Luzon Island and the northern Visayan Islands of the Philippines this weekend and then it will move toward southern Vietnam with some impact there possible early to mid-week next week
  • One
    more tropical disturbance will become a strong storm next week and may threaten northern Luzon Island, Philippines and/or Taiwan near late next week and into the following weekend respectively
  • Unusually
    warm to hot air will impact the U.S. Plains and Midwest through the weekend and early next week respectively
    • Precipitation
      will be kept to a minimum until early next week when Thunderstorms, rain and a little snow evolves briefly
  • U.S.
    Midwest drying through the weekend will be ideal for late summer crop harvesting and winter grain planting and establishment
  • U.S.
    Delta and southeastern states will also experience net drying into early next week with temperatures slowly warming favoring all kinds of fieldwork and supporting winter crop establishment
    • Some
      showers will occur in the northern Delta during mid-week and in the Carolinas, Virginia and possibly a part of Georgia Wednesday into early Thursday
  • Bitter
    cold air will return to the northwestern U.S. Plains, northern and central Rocky Mountain region and interior parts of the Pacific Northwest next week with cooling likely in the northwest half to two-thirds of the Great Plains, as well
  • A
    winter storm will evolve this weekend and early next week in the northwestern U.S. Plains/Canada’s Prairies
    • Very
      heavy snow, some rain, thunderstorms, sleet and a little freezing rain will be possible
      • Snow
        accumulations will be greatest from Montana to northwestern Manitoba and Saskatchewan this weekend and early next week with 8 to 16 inches and possibly as much as 20 inches occurring surrounded by lighter snow
  • U.S.
    hard red winter wheat areas with have opportunity for some precipitation during the late weekend and first half of next week, but the west-central and southwestern Plains will not likely be seriously impacted with precipitation
    • Nebraska,
      northeastern Colorado and eastern Kansas into eastern Oklahoma will likely receive most of the precipitation
    • Snow
      totals will vary from a dusting to 3 inches from northeastern Colorado and northwestern Kansas into central Nebraska
    • Moisture
      totals will vary from 0.05 to 0.15 inch in the northwest, 0.20 to 0.70 inch in the east with a couple of extreme amounts near 1.00 inch on the eastern fringe of crop country
  • West
    Texas precipitation will be minimal through the weekend, but some rain might occur briefly next week
    • The
      moisture will have a minor impact on the region
    • The
      impact on harvesting will be minimal
  • U.S.
    Delta will be impacted by some rain next week, but it should be brief and light enough to restrict the impact on fieldwork and crop conditions
  • U.S.
    southeastern states will receive periods of rain from mid- to late-week next week with some heavy amounts possible in the eastern Carolinas and southeastern Virginia
    • Rain
      totals of 1.00 to 3.00 inches will be possible
    • Another
      wave of heavy rain may impact the southeastern states if Tropical Storm Eta moves into a part of the region at it may in the second weekend of the two week outlook
  • U.S.
    Pacific Northwest will experience a few waves of rain and mountain snow over the next ten days
  • Blizzard
    from Montana to northwestern Manitoba this weekend into early next week will slow travel and stress livestock, but the moisture resulting from melting snow should help improve soil moisture for use in the spring
  • Rain
    will impact eastern Australia today benefiting spring and summer crops, but keeping winter crops moist and briefly slowing crop maturation and harvest progress
    • Southeastern
      Australia will be dry late this week and into early next week and then may be bothered again by rain during mid-week next week
      • The
        moisture will raise a little concern about the overall condition of wheat, barley and canola
        • Another
          wave of showers may occur during the following weekend
      • Most
        of the winter crops will likely manage the periodic precipitation relatively well, although longer periods of drying will be needed to protect grain and oilseed quality
  • Queensland,
    Australia dryland summer crop areas will get some rain this weekend and it will continue infrequently through the following ten days
    • The
      moisture will be good for dryland cotton, sorghum and other summer crop planting, emergence and establishment, although greater moisture will be needed in many areas to ensure the best soil moisture
    • Fieldwork
      will be slowed by the precipitation periodically
      • Unharvested
        winter grains could be negatively impacted, but much of the harvest should be complete
  • Western
    Australia should get some showers today and Friday and then trend dry again for a while
    • No
      serious impact on harvesting or unharvested crop quality is expected.
  • Brazil
    weather through Sunday will not change much with rain continuing in the northeastern one-third of the nation; including areas from northern and eastern Minas Gerais through Tocantins and parts of Goias to Bahia, Espirito Santo and northern Minas Gerais
    • Sufficient
      amounts of rain will fall to maintain wet field conditions in many areas and to bolster soil moisture in other areas
    • Net
      drying is expected elsewhere – not only in Brazil, but in Paraguay and Uruguay as well
    • Nov.
      8-15 weather will continue drier than usual in Uruguay, southern Rio Grande do Sul and a few other random locations in southern Brazil and Paraguay, but most other areas in center west and interior southern Brazil will encounter scattered showers and thunderstorms
      that will benefit many areas; Resulting rainfall may be a little light and erratic in some areas
    • Concern
      will evolve over soil moisture and long-term crop development in portions of far southern Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and eastern Argentina through the first half of November and perhaps all month, but some relief from dryness is expected from next week’s showers
    • Temperatures
      will be seasonable with a slight cooler bias this week and with a slight warmer bias next week
  • Argentina
    weather over the coming week will be mostly dry with the few showers that erupt briefly being light and resulting in no serious boost in topsoil moisture
  • Argentina
    rainfall Nov. 8-15 will be a little better with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected in the west and south
    • The
      precipitation will be greatest in the west leaving eastern areas with a drier bias
    • This
      pattern is classic La Nina
    • Enough
      rain may fall in western crop areas to induce some crop improvement especially in Santiago del Estero and northern Cordoba where the driest weather has been prevailing for months
      • Some
        forecast model runs have advertised rain in the east, too, but it if it occurs it is expected to be more sporadic and light
    • Temperatures
      will be seasonable over the next two weeks
    • The
      bottom line remain good for this week because most of the nation has favorable soil moisture for recent past rainfall
      • Northwestern
        areas will be driest
      • Rain
        next week will be very important as more of the nation becomes too dry once again
  • Some
    rain of significance will fall in Georgia and extreme southern parts of Russia’s Southern Region again Friday and possibly again a week later
  • China
    weather will remain favorably dry over the next ten days favoring winter crop planting and establishment as well as summer crop harvesting
    • Any
      showers that occur will be brief and light causing only a limited amount of disruption to fieldwork
    • Not
      much precipitation fell during the weekend
  • South
    Africa rain will increase today
    • Sufficient
      rainfall will fall to bolster soil moisture for better spring and summer crop development
    • Some
      winter crops might benefit from the moisture, but those crops are needing drier weather to promote maturation and harvesting soon
    • Friday
      and Saturday will be dry and then scattered showers and thunderstorms will resume again Sunday through next week providing a very good mix of weather for the nation’s spring and summer crops
  • India
    weather will be favorable for late season crop development and widespread harvesting over the next ten days
    • Winter
      crop planting, emergence and establishment will advance well
    • Rain
      will be confined to the far south and a few areas in the far Eastern States
  • Waves
    of rain will continue to impact parts of Southeast Asia that are not being impacted by tropical cyclones over the next ten days to two weeks; most crop conditions will remain favorable
  • Brief
    periods of precipitation will move across the European continent over the coming week resulting in a favorable mix of moisture and sunshine for winter crops
    • Fieldwork
      will advance around the precipitation
    • This
      weekend and next week should trend drier
    • Temperatures
      will be near to above average
  • Ontario
    and Quebec, Canada will experience limited precipitation through early next week improving harvest progress in the region after abundant moisture in October
    • Some
      rain will fall briefly during mid-week next week followed by some additional net drying and then another storm in the second weekend of the outlook
  • Southern
    Oscillation Index was +4.04 this morning; the index vary in a narrow range over the next week
  • Mexico
    precipitation will be quite limited this week with showers mostly in the far south
  • Central
    America will be wetter than for another couple of days because of Tropical Depression Eta’s remnants
    • Flooding
      has been extensive in Nicaragua and parts of Honduras this week

·        
West-central Africa will experience erratic rain through the next ten days favoring crop areas closest to the coast

    • Daily
      rainfall is expected to be decreasing as time moves along which is normal for this time of year
    • Cotton
      areas are benefiting from drier weather

·        
East-central Africa rain will be erratic and light over the next couple of weeks, but most of Uganda and southwestern Kenya will be impacted while Tanzania and northwestern Ethiopia rainfall is erratic and light

    • Some
      heavy rain may fall in Uganda early this week

·        
New Zealand rainfall will be near to above average in North Island and northern parts of South Island while near to below average in southern South Island

    • Temperatures
      will be near to below average

Source: 
World Weather Inc. 

 

 

 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Thursday,
Nov. 5:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • China’s
    CNGOIC to publish monthly soybean and corn reports
  • FAO
    World Food Price Index
  • Guatemala
    October coffee exports
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • Malaysian
    Nov. 1-5 palm oil export data

Friday,
Nov. 6:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • HOLIDAY:
    Argentina

Saturday,
Nov. 7

  • China’s
    trade data on soybeans and meat imports

Monday,
Nov. 9:

  • USDA
    weekly corn, soybean, wheat export inspections, 11am
  • U.S.
    winter wheat conditions; harvest for soybeans, corn, cotton, 4pm
  • Brazil
    Unica cane crush, sugar production (tentative)
  • Ivory
    Coast cocoa arrivals
  • EU
    weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
  • EARNINGS:
    BRF SA

Tuesday,
Nov. 10:

  • USDA’s
    monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand (WASDE) report, noon
  • China’s
    agriculture ministry (CASDE) releases monthly report on supply, demand
  • Malaysian
    Palm Oil Council webinar on China’s post-pandemic palm oil demand
  • Malaysian
    Palm Oil Board releases data on end-October stockpiles, exports, production
  • Conab’s
    data on area, output and yield of soybeans and corn in Brazil
  • Malaysia
    Nov. 1-10 palm oil export data from AmSpec, SGS

Wednesday,
Nov. 11:

  • EARNINGS:
    JBS, Barry Callebaut
  • HOLIDAY:
    U.S. (Veterans Day, federal govt closed, CME trading unaffected), France, Canada

Thursday,
Nov. 12:

  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • Vietnam
    customs data on coffee, rice and rubber exports in October
  • EIA
    U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production
  • EARNINGS:
    BayWa, Marfrig

Friday,
Nov. 13:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
    • NOTE:
      CFTC Commitments of Traders report, usually released on Fridays, is scheduled for Monday, Nov. 16, due to U.S. federal holiday
  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • New
    Zealand Food Prices

Saturday,
Nov. 14:

  • China
    Animal Agriculture Association summit on hog recovery, ASF vaccine progress

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USDA
Export Sales

·        
Soybeans came in at the higher end of expectations at 1.531 million tons, slightly below the previous week and included 810,700 tons for China.

·        
Soybean meal export sales of 331,400 tons were ok and soybean oil of 6,800 tons were again low.  Shipment so products slowed for soybean meal but improved for soybean oil.

·        
USDA export sales for corn of 2.611 million tons topped expectations and included 1.063 million tons for Mexico and 212,300 tons for China.  Sorghum sales hit it out of the ballpark with 365,000
tons, including 340,000 tons for China.  Pork sales were an excellent 42,200 tons and included 10,300 tons for China.

·        
All-wheat export sales of 597,100 tons were within expectations. 

 

 

 

Macros

US
Initial Jobless Claims: 751K (est 735K, prevR 758K)

US
Continuing Claims: 7.285Mln (est 7.2Mln, prevR 7.823Mln)

US
Initial Jobless Claims 751K A Decrease Of 7,000 From Previous Week’s Revised Level – Official

US
Non-Farm Productivity (Q3P): 4.9% (est 5.6%, prev 10.1%)

 

Corn.

  • CBOT
    corn traded higher following strength in soybeans and renewed hopes China will by US DDGS and ethanol.  US export sales for corn were excellent and sorghum sales to China topped 300,000 tons.  The USD traded at an October low. 
  • Ukraine
    corn production estimates widely vary between 26 and 33 million tons, down from 35.9 million tons in 2019. 
  • Goldman
    Roll starts Friday, the fifth business day of the month. 
  • The
    weekly USDA Broiler report showed eggs set in the US down 3 percent and chicks placed down slightly.  Cumulative placements from the week ending January 4, 2020 through October 31, 2020 for the United States were 8.14 billion. Cumulative placements were down
    1 percent from the same period a year earlier. 

 

China’s
Corn Imports Estimated to Hit 22 Million Metric Tons – USDA Attaché

The
forecast for China’s corn imports for Marketing Year (MY) 2020/2021 is increased from 7 million metric tons (MMT) to 22 MMT. The jump is attributed to depleted stocks and high domestic prices. – Attaché

This
comes after USDA said at the data user conference last week that they have not increased their China corn import number because China has not amended their TRQ import requirement of 7.2 million tons.   The Attaché estimated China corn production at 250 million
tons, 10 million tons below USDA official. 

https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=China%27s%20Corn%20Imports%20Estimated%20to%20Hit%2022%20Million%20Metric%20Tons_Beijing_China%20-%20Peoples%20Republic%20of_10-29-2020

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Corn
Export Developments

  • Under
    the 24-hour announcement system, private exporters reported export sales of 106,000 tons of sorghum for delivery to China during the 2020/2021 marketing year. 

 

Updated
11/05/20

December
corn is seen in a $3.90-$4.25 range

 

Soybean
complex
.
 

Source:
USDA and FI

  • Brazil’s
    Conab is due to release updated Brazil supply estimates on Tuesday. 
  • The
    Buenos Aires Grains exchange reported soybean planting progress at 4 percent and corn at 31 percent (12 points below year ago). 

  • ITS:
    Nov 1-5 Malaysian palm exports 232,000 tons, down 8 percent MOM. 
  • Traders
    are looking for Malaysian palm end of October stocks to fall 9.8 percent to 1.56 million tons from 1.725 million at the end of September.  Good demand from exports and lower production may sink ending palm oil stocks to a three-year low. 
  • Malaysian
    palm futures are up for the third day with third month futures up 111 points and cash up $18.00.   

 

 

 

Oilseeds
Export Developments

  • Under
    the 24-hour announcement system, private exporters reported export sales of 33,000 tons of soybean oil for delivery to India during the 2020/2021 marketing year.

  • Egypt’s
    GASC seeks local vegetable oils on November 9 for Dec 25-Jan 15 arrival (2,000 sunflower oil and 3,000 soybean oil). 

 

 

 

Updated
11/05/20

January
soybeans are seen in a $10.75-$11.40 range

December
soybean meal is seen in a $370-$410 range

December
soybean oil is seen in a 34.50-37.00 range

 

Wheat

  • FAO
    lowered their global grain production by nearly 13 million tons to 2.75 billion tons, in part to lower EU and Ukraine corn output.  World wheat was lowered 2.3 million tons to 762.7 million tons. 
  • US
    wheat futures Paris (Matif) December wheat was up 2.25 euros at 209.00 euros. 

 

 

Export
Developments.

  • Saudi
    Arabia seeks 600,000 tons of 12.5% protein wheat for February through March delivery on Friday. 
  • Japan
    bought 91,612 tons of milling wheat this week from the US, Canada and Australia. 

  • Syria
    seeks 150,000 tons of wheat on November 9.  They were in on October 28 for 200,000 tons. 
  • Turkey
    seeks 550,000 tons of wheat on November 11 for Nov 24 and Dec 18 shipment. 
  • Lowest
    offer $286.20/ton:  Pakistan seeks 320,000 tons of wheat 3 for arrival by November 3 for arrival by the end of January. 

 

Rice/Other

·        
Syria seeks 37,400 tons of white rice on November 23.  White Chinese/Egyptian short grain white rice of third or fourth class was sought. Shipment is sought within three months of order confirmation. 

 

Updated
11/05/20

December
Chicago wheat is seen in a $5.90-6.20 range

December
KC wheat is seen in a $5.45-$5.80 range

December
MN wheat is seen in a $5.45-$5.75 range

 

 

 

 

U.S. EXPORT SALES FOR WEEK ENDING 10/29/2020       

 

 

CURRENT MARKETING YEAR

NEXT MARKETING YEAR

COMMODITY

NET SALES

OUTSTANDING SALES

WEEKLY EXPORTS

ACCUMULATED EXPORTS

NET SALES

OUTSTANDING SALES

CURRENT YEAR

YEAR
AGO

CURRENT YEAR

YEAR
AGO

 

THOUSAND METRIC TONS

WHEAT

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   HRW    

199.3

1,633.2

1,126.0

119.3

4,484.4

4,351.1

0.0

22.0

   SRW    

56.3

418.6

580.1

22.4

937.7

1,252.7

0.0

100.0

   HRS     

163.4

1,616.6

1,232.7

112.8

3,108.5

2,878.6

0.0

45.0

   WHITE   

176.6

1,936.2

921.3

63.4

2,080.8

1,925.1

0.0

20.0

   DURUM  

1.5

200.9

312.5

1.5

340.0

358.3

0.0

0.0

     TOTAL

597.1

5,805.5

4,172.5

319.4

10,951.4

10,765.9

0.0

187.0

BARLEY

0.0

31.1

37.2

0.5

10.9

21.3

0.0

0.0

CORN

2,610.9

26,335.3

7,954.1

728.8

6,853.9

3,939.0

541.0

747.0

SORGHUM

365.0

3,027.0

492.5

94.9

614.8

46.2

55.0

259.0

SOYBEANS

1,530.5

31,853.2

11,564.6

2,528.2

16,647.5

9,333.7

0.0

69.0

SOY MEAL

331.4

3,596.4

3,228.2

229.3

875.5

939.8

0.0

18.1

SOY OIL

6.8

174.2

132.2

22.9

53.8

104.7

0.0

0.0

RICE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   L G RGH

8.4

464.5

421.5

61.9

215.2

372.5

0.0

0.0

   M S RGH

0.0

20.4

18.4

0.3

8.5

12.3

0.0

0.0

   L G BRN

0.2

11.3

14.6

0.9

10.3

13.5

0.0

0.0

   M&S BR

0.0

18.7

11.8

1.1

30.9

1.3

0.0

0.0

   L G MLD

4.7

87.1

117.5

3.7

112.7

325.0

0.0

0.0

   M S MLD

15.1

146.6

149.9

19.0

103.9

150.3

0.0

0.0

     TOTAL

28.3

748.8

733.7

87.0

481.6

874.9

0.0

0.0

COTTON

 

THOUSAND RUNNING BALES      

   UPLAND

115.6

5,667.3

7,064.6

270.0

3,198.0

2,484.1

55.7

576.8

   PIMA

16.8

266.3

156.0

21.9

161.0

105.3

0.0

0.7

 

Export Sales Highlights

This
summary is based on reports from exporters for the period October 23-29, 2020.

  • Wheat:  Net
    sales of 597,100 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were down 20 percent from the previous week, but up 10 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for unknown destinations (138,500 MT), Taiwan (88,600 MT), South Korea (86,300 MT, including
    decreases of 500 MT), the Philippines (59,000 MT), and Colombia (50,300 MT).  Exports of 319,400 MT were down 28 percent from the previous week and 31 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to South Korea (83,800 MT), Japan
    (65,900 MT), Nigeria (58,300 MT), Venezuela (45,400 MT, including 35,000 MT late – see below), and Jamaica (22,200 MT).   Optional Origin Sales:  For 2020/2021, the current outstanding balance of 10,000 MT, all Spain.  Late Reporting:  For 2020/2021, net sales
    totaling 35,000 MT were reported late. The destination was Venezuela.  Exports totaling 57,100 MT were reported late.  The destinations were Venezuela (35,000 MT) and Italy (22,100 MT). 
  • Corn: 
    Net sales of 2,610,900 MT for 2020/2021 were up 16 percent from the previous week and 75 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Mexico (1,062,600 MT, including 13,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 5,300 MT),
    unknown destinations (781,600 MT), China (212,300 MT, including decreases of 1,400 MT), South Korea (132,700 MT), and Colombia (127,700 MT, including 49,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 5,400 MT), were offset by reductions for Guatemala
    (800 MT).  For 2021/2022, total net sales of 541,000 MT were for Mexico.  Exports of 728,800 MT were down 1 percent from the previous week and 14 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to China (330,300 MT), Mexico (208,600
    MT), Colombia (101,100 MT), Honduras (28,100 MT), and Japan (23,600 MT).  Optional Origin Sales:  For 2020/2021, new optional origin sales of 327,000 MT were reported for South Korea (262,000 MT) and Japan (65,000 MT).  Decreases totaling 30,000 MT were reported
    for Ukraine.  The current outstanding balance of 1,327,600 MT is for South Korea (382,000 MT), Vietnam (260,000 MT), Taiwan (205,000 MT), Japan (188,000 MT), unknown destinations (167,600 MT), and Ukraine (125,000 MT). 
    Late Reporting: For 2020/2021, exports totaling 7,200 MT were reported late. The destination was Jamaica.
  • Barley: 
    No net sales were reported for the week.  Exports of 500 MT were to Japan (300 MT) and Taiwan (200 MT).
  • Sorghum: 
    Net sales of 365,000 MT for 2020/2021 resulting in increases for China (340,500 MT, including 98,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 3,900 MT) and unknown destinations (25,000 MT), were offset by reductions for Mexico (500 MT).  For
    2021/2022, total net sales of 55,000 MT were for unknown destinations.  Exports of 94,900 MT were to China.
  • Rice: 
    Net sales of 28,300 MT for 2020/2021 were down 77 percent from the
    previous week and 75 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for Jordan (6,600 MT), Mexico (6,100 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Japan (4,300 MT), Brazil (2,700 MT), and Saudi Arabia (2,400 MT).  E
    xports
    of 87,000 MT–a marketing-year high–were up 59 percent from the previous week and 83 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico (33,200 MT), Brazil (29,700 MT), Japan (13,100 MT), Saudi Arabia (2,900 MT), and Canada
    (2,900 MT).
  • Soybeans: 
    Net sales of 1,530,500 MT for 2020/2021 were down 6 percent from the previous week and 32 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (810,700 MT, including 578,600 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 66,600 MT),
    Egypt (283,800 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), Mexico (92,700 MT, including decreases of 1,500 MT), the Netherlands (85,800 MT, including 78,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Canada (71,400 MT, including decreases of 600 MT), were offset
    by reductions primarily for unknown destinations (27,000 MT).  Exports of 2,528,200 MT were down 6 percent from the previous week, but up 6 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to China (1,938,700 MT), Bangladesh (106,000
    MT), Mexico (87,200 MT), the Netherlands (85,300 MT), and Pakistan (68,600 MT).    Optional Origin Sales:  For 2020/2021, the current outstanding balance of 126,000 MT, all China. 
    Exports for Own Account:  For 2020/2021, the current exports for own account outstanding balance is 32,300 MT, all Canada.  Late Reporting:  For 2020/2021, exports totaling 137,500 MT were reported late.  The destination was to China. 
  • Soybean Cake and Meal: 
    Net sales of 331,400 MT for 2020/2021 primarily for the Philippines (138,800 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), Italy (45,000 MT), Mexico (35,400 MT, including decreases of 6,100 MT), Peru (30,000 MT), and Canada (29,800 MT, including decreases of 400 MT),
    were offset by reductions primarily for Japan (29,600 MT).  Exports of 229,300 MT were primarily to the Philippines (93,600 MT), Colombia (44,100 MT), Canada (28,500 MT), Venezuela (23,000 MT), and Mexico (21,900 MT). 
  • Soybean Oil: 
    Net sales of 6,800 MT for 2020/2021 were primarily for Mexico (4,400
    MT), Canada (1,200 MT), Venezuela (500 MT), Guatemala (500 MT), and the Dominican Republic (200 MT).  E
    xports
    of 22,900 MT were primarily to South Korea (13,400 MT), the Dominican Republic (3,900 MT), Guatemala (3,800 MT), Mexico (1,000 MT), and Canada (700 MT).
  • Cotton: 
    Net sales of 115,600 RB for 2020/2021 were down 60 percent from the previous week and 42 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (47,300 RB, including decreases of 38,300 RB), Pakistan (25,200 RB), Turkey (22,500 RB, including
    decreases of 22,100 RB), South Korea (16,600 RB), and Guatemala (15,900 RB, including 400 RB switched from El Salvador), were offset by reductions primarily for Bangladesh (44,100 RB) and Mexico (10,100 RB).  For 2021/2022, net sales of 55,700 RB were primarily
    for Guatemala (26,000 RB), El Salvador (14,100 RB), and China (8,800 RB). Exports of 270,000 RB were up 18 percent from the previous week and 43 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Exports were primarily to China (127,400 RB), Vietnam (41,700 RB), Pakistan
    (27,800 RB), Bangladesh (20,200 RB), and Mexico (17,800 RB).  Net sales of Pima totaling 16,800 RB were down 49 percent from the previous week and 34 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Pakistan (5,700 RB), India (5,200 RB, including
    decreases of 400 RB), China (2,400 RB, including decreases of 2,200 RB), Peru (2,000 RB), and Turkey (900 RB, including 600 RB switched from Germany), were offset by reductions for Germany (600 RB).  Exports of 21,900 RB–a marketing-year high–were up 38
    percent from the previous week and 69 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to India (7,200 RB), China (7,000 RB), Pakistan (3,000 RB), Vietnam (2,200 RB), and Thailand (500 RB). 
     Exports for Own Account:  For 2020/2021, new exports for own account totaling 3,600 RB were to China.  Exports for own account totaling 5,500 RB to China were applied to new or outstanding sales.  Decreases were reported for Indonesia (3,600 RB).  The
    current exports for own account outstanding balance of 7,200 RB is for China (5,900 RB), Bangladesh (1,000 RB), and Indonesia (300 RB).

·        
Hides and Skins:
 
Net sales of 401,800 pieces for 2020 were down 4 percent from the previous week, but up 3 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (285,700 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 14,900 pieces), South Korea (49,400 whole cattle
hides, including decreases of 2,600 pieces), Mexico (33,400 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 600 pieces), Brazil (20,100 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 100 pieces), and Thailand (9,400 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 100 pieces),
were offset by reductions for Indonesia (400 pieces), Vietnam (200 pieces), and Japan (200 pieces).  For 2021, total net sales of 7,200 pieces were for China.  Exports of 374,900 pieces reported for 2020 were down 18 percent from the previous week and 15 percent
from the prior 4-week average.  Whole cattle hides exports were primarily to China (304,400 pieces), South Korea (27,100 pieces), Mexico (15,800 pieces), Taiwan (6,100 pieces), and Indonesia (4,800 pieces).  In addition, exports of 5,200 calf skins were to
Italy.

·        
Net sales of 70,300 wet blues

for 2020 were up 18 percent from the previous week, but down 39 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases reported for China (56,900 unsplit, including decreases of 100 unsplit), Thailand (12,000 unsplit, including decreases of 100 unsplit), Mexico
(8,000 grain splits), Brazil (1,800 grain splits, including decreases of 300 grain splits), and South Korea (800 unsplit), were offset by reductions primarily for Vietnam (7,200 grain splits and 1,700 unsplit).  For 2021, total net sales of 15,200 wet blues
were reported for Vietnam (8,000 unsplit and 7,200 grain splits).  Exports of 200,300 wet blues for 2020 were up 8 percent from the previous week and 28 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Italy (56,400 unsplit and 9,800
grain splits), China (61,300 unsplit), Vietnam (53,100 unsplit), Thailand (5,800 unsplit), and Taiwan (3,700 unsplit and 1,800 grain splits).  Net sales of 264,900 splits resulting in increases for Vietnam (270,900 pounds, including decreases of 70,200 pounds),
were offset by reductions for China (6,000 pounds).  For 2021, net sales of 93,600 splits resulting in increases for China (143,300 pounds), were offset by reductions for Vietnam (49,800 pounds).  Exports of 826,600 pounds were primarily to Vietnam (782,900
pounds).

·        
Beef: 
Net sales of 20,400 MT reported
for 2020 were up 8 percent from the previous week and 9 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Japan (4,700 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), South Korea (4,600 MT, including decreases of 700 MT), China (3,600 MT, including decreases
of 100 MT), Mexico (2,500 MT), and Taiwan (1,900 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), were offset by reductions for Colombia (100 MT).  For 2021, net sales of 4,500 MT were primarily for South Korea (4,000 MT), Japan (200 MT), and Hong Kong (200 MT).  Exports
of 21,400 MT–a marketing-year high–were up 26 percent from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to South Korea (5,600 MT), Japan (5,000 MT), China (2,700 MT), Mexico (2,300 MT), and Hong Kong (1,800 MT).

·        
Pork: 
Net sales of 42,200 MT reported
for 2020 were up 46 percent from the previous week and 18 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for Mexico (14,700 MT, including decreases of 700 MT), China (10,300 MT, including decreases of 1,400 MT), South Korea (5,100 MT, including
decreases of 100 MT), Japan (3,300 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and Colombia (2,400 MT).  For 2021, net sales of 800 MT were primarily for Chile (400 MT), Australia (200 MT), and Japan (100 MT).  Exports of 37,700 MT were up 1 percent from the previous
week and 3 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to China (14,600 MT), Mexico (10,000 MT), Japan (4,500 MT), Canada (2,100 MT), and South Korea (1,600 MT).

 

Terry Reilly

Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds

Futures International
One Lincoln Center
18 W 140 Butterfield Rd.

Oakbrook Terrace, Il. 60181

W: 312.604.1366

treilly@futures-int.com

ICE IM: 
treilly1

Skype: fi.treilly

 

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