PDF Attached includes US S&Ds’

 

US
election day

 

2020
USDA Fall Data Users’ Meeting Links

https://www.nass.usda.gov/Education_and_Outreach/Meeting/index.php

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

KEY
WEATHER ISSUES AROUND THE WORLD

  • Vietnam
    will experience multiple waves of rain during the next ten days resulting in more excessive rainfall in central parts of the nation after similar conditions have been occurring since October 5
    • Some
      of today’s computer forecast models have suggested 10.00 to 31.00 inches of rain may accumulate in central Vietnam coastal areas over the next ten days
      • Da
        Nang, International Airport has already recorded more than 67 inches of moisture since October 5
    • The
      rains have been impacting many areas adversely with the biggest impact on commerce occurring in the port cities of Da Nang and Hue, but other ports and coastal areas have been impacted as well
    • The
      region was mostly dry Monday
  • Tropical
    Storm Goni will weaken to a depression as it moves toward central Vietnam and the system is not expected to produce nearly as much damaging wind and flooding as once feared
    • Landfall
      is now expected late this week near Nha Trang
    • Goni
      was 401 miles east of Da Nang, Vietnam this morning
  • Tropical
    Storm Astani is no longer expected to reach typhoon intensity in the North China sea late this week and it will weaken as it turns southwest toward Vietnam during the latter part of this week and into the weekend
    • Astani’s
      landfall may be near or south of Da Nang, Vietnam this weekend
    • The
      storm was 396 miles south of Okinawa, Japan this morning and will pass through the Bashi Channel (separating Luzon Island, Philippines from Taiwan) Thursday and Friday of this week
  • Another
    tropical weather system will impact Luzon Island, Philippines this weekend and then it will move toward southern Vietnam with some impact there possible late next week
  • Another
    tropical disturbance will impact northern Luzon Island, Philippines late next week with additional heavy rain expected
  • One
    more tropical cyclone is possible east of the Philippines early next week that will move northeast and remain over open water in the western Pacific Ocean during the week next week.
  • Extremely
    dangerous Category Four Hurricane Eta was 30 miles from Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua at 0700 CDT today moving west southwesterly at 4 mph and producing maximum sustained wind speeds of 145 mph
    • Eta
      will move inland over this morning in northeastern Nicaragua and will bring torrential rain, a huge storm surge and severe flooding to the region along with damaging wind
    • The
      storm will weaken to tropical storm status late today as it moves toward the central Honduras border in northern Nicaragua and to depression status Wednesday
    • The
      storm will move through interior western and central parts of Honduras Wednesday and Thursday reaching northeastern Guatemala early Friday and then turning to the Belize coast early Saturday morning
    • Tropical
      Depression Eta will then strengthen back to a tropical Storm over the northern Caribbean Sea during the weekend and will pose a threat to Cuba, the Bahamas, southern Florida and the Yucatan Peninsula early next week
    • Computer
      forecast models are beginning to agree the storm may move into the Gulf of Mexico next week and move west northwesterly before curving back toward the southeastern U.S. near mid-month
  • Unusually
    warm to hot air will impact the U.S. Plains and Midwest over the next seven days
    • Precipitation
      will be kept to a minimum until early next week when a winter storm is possible in the western Corn Belt, northern Plains and upper Midwest
  • U.S.
    Midwest drying through the weekend will be ideal for late summer crop harvesting and winter grain planting and establishment
  • U.S.
    Delta and southeastern states will also experience net drying over the coming week with temperatures slowly warming favoring all kinds of fieldwork and supporting winter crop establishment
  • Bitter
    cold air will return to the northwestern U.S. Plains, northern and central Rocky Mountain region and interior parts of the Pacific Northwest next week with cooling likely in the northwest half to two-thirds of the Great Plains, as well
  • Winter
    storms will evolve this weekend and next week in the northwestern U.S. Plains/Canada’s Prairies and in the northern Plains/upper U.S. Midwest respectively
    • Very
      heavy snow, some rain, thunderstorms, sleet and a little freezing rain will be possible
      • Snow
        accumulations will be greatest from Montana to Manitoba and Saskatchewan from the first storm system this weekend with 6 to 12 inches and possibly more occurring surrounded by lighter snow
  • U.S.
    hard red winter wheat areas with have opportunity for some precipitation during the late weekend and first half of next week, but the west-central and southwestern Plains will not likely be seriously impacted with precipitation
    • Nebraska,
      northeastern Colorado and eastern Kansas into eastern Oklahoma will likely receive most of the precipitation
  • West
    Texas precipitation will be minimal through the weekend, but some rain might occur briefly next week
    • The
      moisture will have a minor impact on the region
  • U.S.
    Delta and southeastern states will be impacted by some rain next week, but it should be brief and light enough to restrict the impact on fieldwork and crop conditions – at least until Tropical Cyclone Eta makes an impact on the region, if it is going to
  • U.S.
    Pacific Northwest will experience a few waves of rain and mountain snow over the next ten days
  • Blizzard
    in eastern and southern Canada’s Prairies this weekend into early next week will slow travel and stress livestock, but the moisture resulting from melting snow should help improve soil moisture for use in the spring
  • Russia’s
    Southern Region and Ukraine’s recent rainfall has diminished and the region will not see much precipitation again for a while
    • The
      moisture was good for winter crop establishment, although it is getting very late in the season for good stands especially after many weeks of drought
  • Eastern
    parts of Russia’s Southern Region, the lower Volga River Basin and western Kazakhstan received no appreciable moisture recently and most of these areas will stay dry this week
    • Western
      Kazakhstan may get a few showers of rain and snow, but resulting moisture will not be significant enough to change unirrigated winter crop conditions
    • Winter
      crops in western Kazakhstan and eastern parts of Russia’s Southern Region are poorly established in unirrigated areas because of drought and no change is expected
  • Western
    Australia received widespread “light” rain during the weekend slowing harvest progress in some areas, but possibly benefiting the latest developing winter crops
    • A
      few follow up showers are possible briefly Thursday and again early next week, but the impact will be low
  • Rain
    will develop in southeastern Australia later today and Wednesday benefiting spring and summer crops, but keeping winter crops moist and briefly slowing crop maturation and harvest progress
    • Southeastern
      Australia will be dry late this week and into next Monday and then may be bothered again during mid-week next week
      • The
        moisture will raise a little concern about the overall condition of wheat, barley and canola
        • Another
          wave of showers may occur during the weekend
      • Most
        of the winter crops will likely manage the periodic precipitation relatively well, although longer periods of drying will be needed to protect grain and oilseed quality
  • Queensland,
    Australia dryland summer crop areas will get some rain this weekend and it will continue periodically through all of next week and into the following weekend
    • The
      moisture will be great for dryland cotton, sorghum and other summer crop planting, emergence and establishment
    • Fieldwork
      will be slowed by the precipitation periodically
      • Unharvested
        winter grains could be negatively impacted, but much of the harvest should be complete
  • Brazil
    rainfall Monday was confined to the northeast while net drying occurred in most other areas

 

  • Brazil
    weather through Sunday will not change much with rain continuing in the northeastern one-third of the nation; including areas from northern and eastern Minas Gerais through Tocantins and parts of Goias to Bahia, Espirito Santo and northern Minas Gerais
    • Sufficient
      amounts of rain will fall to maintain wet field conditions in many areas and to bolster soil moisture in other areas
    • Net
      drying is expected elsewhere – not only in Brazil, but in Paraguay and Uruguay as well
    • Nov.
      8-15 weather will continue drier than usual in Uruguay, southern Rio Grande do Sul and a few other random locations in southern Brazil and Paraguay, but most of the region is expected to encounter scattered showers and thunderstorms that will benefit many
      areas; Resulting rainfall may be a little light in some areas
    • Concern
      will evolve over soil moisture and long term crop development in portions of southern Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and eastern Argentina through the first half of November and perhaps all month, but some relief from dryness is expected from next week’s showers
    • Temperatures
      will be seasonable with a slight cooler bias this week and with a slight warmer bias next week
  • Argentina
    weather during Monday was dry and temperatures were mild
  • Argentina
    weather this week will be mostly dry with the few showers that erupt being very brief and light resulting in not serious boost in topsoil moisture
  • Argentina
    rainfall Nov. 8-15 will be a little better with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected in the west and south
    • The
      precipitation will be greatest in the west leaving eastern areas with a drier bias
    • This
      pattern is classic La Nina
    • Enough
      rain may fall in western crop areas to induce some crop improvement especially in Santiago del Estero and northern Cordoba where the driest weather has been prevailing for months
      • Some
        forecast model runs have advertised rain in the east, too, but it if it occurs it is expected to be more sporadic and light
    • Temperatures
      will be seasonable over the next two weeks
    • The
      bottom line remain good for this week because most of the nation has favorable soil moisture for recent past rainfall
      • Northwestern
        areas will be driest
      • Rain
        next week will be very important as more of the nation becomes too dry once again
  • Some
    rain of significance will fall in Georgia and extreme southern parts of Russia’s Southern Region early this week and again Friday into the weekend
  • China
    weather will remain favorably dry over the next ten days favoring winter crop planting and establishment as well as summer crop harvesting
    • Any
      showers that occur will be brief and light causing only a limited amount of disruption to fieldwork
    • Not
      much precipitation fell during the weekend
  • South
    Africa weather Monday was mostly dry and mild to warm.
  • South
    Africa rain will be erratic today and then a general increase in rain will occur Wednesday into Thursday
    • Sufficient
      rainfall will fall to bolster soil moisture for better spring and summer crop development
    • Some
      winter crops might benefit from the moisture, but those crops are needing drier weather to promote maturation and harvesting soon
    • Friday
      and Saturday will be dry and then scattered showers and thunderstorms will resume again providing a very good mix of weather for the nation’s spring and summer crops
  • India
    weather will be favorable for late season crop development and widespread harvesting over the next ten days
    • Winter
      crop planting, emergence and establishment will advance well
    • Rain
      will be confined to the far south and a few areas in the far Eastern States

 

  • Waves
    of rain will continue to impact parts of Southeast Asia that are not being impacted by tropical cyclones over the next ten days to two weeks; most crop conditions will remain favorable
  • Brief
    periods of precipitation will move across the European continent over the coming week resulting in a favorable mix of moisture and sunshine for winter crops
    • Fieldwork
      will advance around the precipitation
    • This
      weekend and next week should trend drier
    • Temperatures
      will be near to above average
  • Ontario
    and Quebec, Canada will experience limited precipitation over the coming week greatly improving harvest progress in the region after abundant moisture in October
    • Some
      rain will fall briefly during mid-week next week followed by some additional net drying
  • Southern
    Oscillation Index leveled off and began to rise a little during the weekend. The index was +4.88 this morning; the index fell from a peak of +12.58 on October 13 to a low of +3.83 Saturday
    • The
      index will rise additionally this week
  • Mexico
    precipitation will be quite limited this week with showers mostly in the far south
  • Central
    America will be wetter than usual this week especially in Nicaragua and Honduras because of Hurricane Eta moving inland and not completely dissipating
    • Flooding
      is likely along with some crop and property damage
  • West-central
    Africa will experience erratic rain through the next ten days favoring crop areas closest to the coast
    • Daily
      rainfall is expected to be decreasing as time moves along which is normal for this time of year
    • Cotton
      areas are benefiting from drier weather
  • East-central
    Africa rain will be erratic and light over the next couple of weeks, but most of Uganda and southwestern Kenya will be impacted while Tanzania and northwestern Ethiopia rainfall is erratic and light
    • Some
      heavy rain may fall in Uganda early this week
  • New
    Zealand rainfall will be near to above average in North Island and northern parts of South Island while near to below average in southern South Island
    • Temperatures
      will be near to below average

Source: 
World Weather Inc. 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Tuesday,
Nov. 3:

  • U.S.
    Purdue Agriculture Sentiment, 9:30am
  • New
    Zealand global dairy trade auction
  • FT
    Global Food Systems conference
  • EARNINGS:
    Andersons, AB Foods
  • HOLIDAY:
    Japan

Wednesday,
Nov. 4:

  • US
    Trade Balance
  • EIA
    U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
  • New
    Zealand Commodity Price

Thursday,
Nov. 5:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • China’s
    CNGOIC to publish monthly soybean and corn reports
  • FAO
    World Food Price Index
  • Guatemala
    October coffee exports
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • Malaysian
    Nov. 1-5 palm oil export data

Friday,
Nov. 6:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • HOLIDAY:
    Argentina

Saturday,
Nov. 7

  • China’s
    trade data on soybeans and meat imports

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

Brazil
selected export data for the month of October

Commodity
              October 2020   October 2019

CRUDE
OIL (TNS)          4,743,279      5,266,953

IRON
ORE (TNS)           31,192,800     34,136,907

SOYBEANS
(TNS)           2,492,896      5,076,259

CORN
(TNS)              5,156,818      6,023,744

GREEN
COFFEE(TNS)        225,378        199,473

SUGAR
(TNS)              4,203,124      1,917,690

BEEF
(TNS)              162,684        170,552

POULTRY
(TNS)            296,637        334,626

PULP
(TNS)              1,451,319      1,319,933

 

Informa
US yield/production estimates

Corn
November 175.7/14.502; October 177.8/14.812

Soybeans
November 50.8/4.183; October 51.9/4.294

 

StoneX
US yield/production estimates

Corn
November 178.9/14.762; October 179.0/14.942

Soybeans
November 52.1/4.291; October 52.4/4.351

 

FI
US yield/production estimates (for USDA)

Corn
178.4/14.705

Soybeans
51.8/4.269

 

Macros

US
Factory Orders (M/M) Sep: 1.1% (est 1.0%; prev 0.7%)


Factory Orders Ex-Trans (M/M) Sep: 0.5% (est 0.6%; prev 0.7%)


Durable Goods Orders (M/M) Sep F: 1.9% (est 1.9%; prev 1.9%)


Durables Ex-Transportation (M/M) Sep F: 0.9% (est 0.8%; prev 0.8%)


Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex-Air Sep F: 1.0% (est 1.0%; prev 1.0%)


Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex-Air Sep F: 0.5% (prev 0.3%)

 

Corn.

 

Corn
Export Developments

  • None
    reported

 

Updated
11/02/20

December
corn is seen in a $3.85-$4.10 range

 

Soybean
complex
.
 

  • StoneX
    sees Brazil’s soybean crop at 133.48 million tons from 132.61 million tons previously.
  • Reuters
    reported that a shipment of 38,000 tons of U.S. soybeans is bound for Brazil out of the Gulf.  Ponta Grossa was thought to be the destination. 

  • November
    soybean deliveries were 118 and registrations were unchanged. 

 

Oilseeds
Export Developments

 

 

Updated
11/02/20

January
soybeans are seen in a $10.30-$11.00 range

December
soybean meal is seen in a $365-$380 range

December
soybean oil is seen in a 32.50-33.50 range

 

Wheat

 

 

Export
Developments.

 

Rice/Other

·        
Syria seeks 37,400 tons of white rice on November 23.  White Chinese/Egyptian short grain white rice of third or fourth class was sought. Shipment is sought within three months of order confirmation. 

 

 

Updated
11/02/20

December Chicago wheat is seen in a $5.85-6.10
range

December KC wheat is seen in a $5.30-$5.65
range

December MN wheat is seen in a $5.25-$5.65
range

 

 

 

Terry Reilly

Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds

Futures International
One Lincoln Center
18 W 140 Butterfield Rd.

Oakbrook Terrace, Il. 60181

W: 312.604.1366

treilly@futures-int.com

ICE IM: 
treilly1

Skype: fi.treilly

 

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