PDF Attached

 

Winter
wheat crop conditions came in two points below expectations and harvesting progress was slightly below expectations. 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

 

 

 

KEY
WEATHER ISSUES AROUND THE WORLD

  • Western
    portions of Russia’s Southern Region, Ukraine and Russia’s Central region received precipitation during the weekend with lingering showers early this week
    • Moisture
      totals varying from 0.30 to 1.25 inches occurred in Ukraine while 0.05 to 0.84 inch occurred in western parts of Russia’s Southern Region
    • The
      moisture was welcome and a few areas in southern parts of Russia’s Central Region (immediately north of the central Ukraine border) ranged from 1.00 to 2.00 inches
      • Most
        of the precipitation has come too late in the autumn season to induce good stands in the driest areas, but there will be potential for crop improvement in the spring “if” winterkill is kept to a minimum this winter
  • Eastern
    parts of Russia’s Southern Region, the lower Volga River Basin and western Kazakhstan received no appreciable moisture and most of these areas will stay dry this week
    • Western
      Kazakhstan may get a little light rain and rain changing to snow briefly Friday into the weekend, but resulting moisture will not be significant enough to change unirrigated winter crop conditions
    • Winter
      crops in western Kazakhstan and eastern parts of Russia’s Southern Region are poorly established in unirrigated areas because of drought
  • Western
    Australia received widespread “light” rain during the weekend slowing harvest progress in some areas, but possibly benefiting the latest developing winter crops
    • A
      few follow up showers are possible briefly Thursday, but the impact will be low
  • Rain
    will develop in southeastern Australia during mid-week this week benefiting spring and summer crops, but keeping winter crops moist and briefly slowing crop maturation and harvest progress
    • Southeastern
      Australia will be dry late this week and into next Monday and then may be bothered again by rain early to mid-week next week
      • The
        moisture will raise a little more concern about the overall condition of wheat, barley and canola, but drier weather does return late in the week next week and lasts into the following weekend
      • Most
        of the winter crops will likely manage the periodic precipitation relatively well, although longer periods of drying might be welcome
  • Queensland,
    Australia dryland summer crop areas will get some rain late this week through the weekend and into early next week
    • The
      moisture will be great for dryland cotton, sorghum and other summer crop planting, emergence and establishment
  • Hurricane
    Eta will move into northeastern Nicaragua tonight and Tuesday and will impact both Nicaragua and Honduras into Friday
    • Heavy
      rain expected in Honduras, northern Nicaragua and El Salvador
    • Rainfall
      of 5.00 to 15.00 inches and local totals to 25.00 inches will result in notable flooding, landslides and considerable personal property, agriculture and infrastructure damage.
      • Rice
        and sugarcane will be most vulnerable to damage, but some corn, sorghum, coffee and other crops will also be impacted
    • At
      0700 CDT today was located 140 miles east of Cabo Gracias A Dios, on the Nicaragua/Honduras border, at 14.8 north, 81.1 west moving westerly at 10 mph and maximum sustained wind speeds were reaching 90 mph with tropical storm force wind occurring out 125 miles
      from the storm center and hurricane force wind out 25 miles
  • Worry
    over the remnants of Tropical Storm Eta returning to the Caribbean Sea late this week and during the weekend will be rising
    • Many
      computer forecast model runs are advertising such an event with the tropical system returning to the northwestern Caribbean Sea late this week and moving easterly during the weekend
    • The
      storm is advertised to move erratically with Cuba, the Yucatan Peninsula, Florida and the Bahamas all at risk of some influence from the storm through next week
  • Brazil
    rainfall during the weekend was most significant from northern and eastern Mato Grosso through Goias and Tocantins to Bahia, Minas Gerais and Espirito Santo
    • Moderate
      to heavy rain fell in parts of the region especially in Espirito Santo and east-central through northern Minas Gerais where 2.00 to more than 5.00 inches resulted
    • Net
      drying occurred in other Brazil locations especially in the west and south while temperatures were seasonable
  • Brazil
    weather in this coming seven days will not change much with rain continuing in the northeastern one-third of the nation; including areas from northern and eastern Minas Gerais through Tocantins and parts of Goias to Bahia, Espirito Santo and northern Minas
    Gerais
    • Sufficient
      amounts of rain will fall to maintain wet field conditions in many areas and to bolster soil moisture in other areas
    • Net
      drying is expected elsewhere – not only in Brazil, but in Paraguay and Uruguay as well
    • Nov.
      8-15 weather will continue drier than usual in Uruguay, southern Rio Grande do Sul and a few other random locations in southern Brazil and Paraguay, but most of the region is expected to encounter scattered showers and thunderstorms that will benefit many
      areas, but resulting rainfall may be a little light
    • Concern
      will evolve over soil moisture and long-term crop development in portions of southern Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and eastern Argentina through the first half of November and perhaps all month
    • Temperatures
      will be seasonable with a slight cooler bias this week and with a slight warmer bias next week
  • Argentina
    weather during the weekend was dry and temperatures were mild
  • Argentina
    weather this week will be mostly dry with the few showers that erupt being very brief and light resulting in not serious boost in topsoil moisture
  • Argentina
    rainfall Nov. 8-15 will be a little better with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected
    • The
      precipitation will be greatest in the west leaving eastern areas with a drier bias
    • This
      pattern is classic La Nina
    • Enough
      rain may fall in western crop areas to induce some crop improvement especially in Santiago del Estero and northern Cordoba where the driest weather has been prevailing for months
      • Some
        forecast model runs have advertised rain in the east, too, but it if it occurs it is expected to be more sporadic and light
    • Temperatures
      will be seasonable over the next two weeks
    • The
      bottom line remain good for this week because most of the nation has favorable soil moisture for recent past rainfall
      • Northwestern
        areas will be driest
      • Rain
        next week will be very important as more of the nation becomes too dry once again
  • U.S.
    weather trended drier biased during the weekend with some warming followed by a new bout of cooling
    • The
      environment was improving for more aggressive harvesting in the lower Midwest, Delta and southeastern states, although more drying was needed and should evolve this week
    • Winter
      crop planting likely resumed in some areas and should increase as drier weather continues this week.
    • Temperatures
      are expected to be notably warmer than usual this week, but much colder next week in the Plains and far western states
  • U.S.
    cooling is likely in far western U.S. this weekend and two storm systems will then evolve in the central United States
    • Storm
      number one occurs during the weekend (Nov. 6-8)
      • Rain
        changing to snow and then blizzard conditions may evolve in the northwestern Plains and a part of Canada’s Prairies
        • Moisture
          totals will vary from 0.20 to 0.80 inch with a few amounts to 1.35 inches
        • Heavy
          snow will fall from Montana and western North Dakota to Saskatchewan and a part of Manitoba
    • Storm
      number two evolves in the central Plains Sunday into next Monday and then advances to the upper Midwest during the early part of next week with a trailing cold front bringing some rain to the eastern Midwest next week
      • Moisture
        totals Nov. 8-10 will vary from 0.20 to 0.80 inch with a few amounts of 1.00 to 1.50 inches from eastern portions of the central Plains to the western Great Lakes region and Minnesota
        • Eastern
          Kansas to Minnesota and Wisconsin will be wettest
        • Heavy
          snow will fall from north-central and northeastern Kansas through Iowa to Wisconsin and Minnesota
  • Remnants
    of Hurricane Eta could impact Florida later next week, although confidence is low
  • U.S.
    hard red winter wheat areas will get additional precipitation this weekend into early next week with the southwestern and west-central Plains getting the lightest amount of moisture
  • West
    Texas could receive a few showers late this weekend into early next week, but resulting amounts will be brief enough to limit the impact on cotton and other summer crop harvesting
  • U.S.
    Pacific Northwest will receive some rain and mountain snow late this workweek and again briefly next week
    • Moisture
      totals are not likely to be very great
      • The
        moisture will be welcome, but not enough on its own for a serious improvement in soil moisture, but water supply and mountain snowpack for 2021 may begin to improve
  • U.S.
    Delta and interior southeastern states will be dry for much of the coming week with a brief bout of rain coming with a frontal system during mid-week next week
    • A
      close watch on the remnants of Hurricane Eta will be warranted for possible impact on Florida or perhaps a few areas farther north, but not before the second half of next week
  • Other
    precipitation in western portions of the Commonwealth of Independent states will be light and helpful for maintaining favorable soil moisture for use in the spring.
  • Some
    rain of significance will fall in Georgia and extreme southern parts of Russia’s Southern Region early this week and again Friday into the weekend
  • China
    weather will remain favorably dry over the next ten days favoring winter crop planting and establishment as well as summer crop harvesting
    • Any
      showers that occur will be brief and light causing only a limited amount of disruption to fieldwork
    • Not
      much precipitation fell during the weekend
  • Typhoon
    Goni moved into the central Philippines during the weekend and was downgraded to tropical storm status while moving into the South China Sea Sunday and today
    • The
      storm produced nearly 11.00 inches of rain in southeastern Luzon Island and nearly 7.00 inches in Samar with lighter rain to the west
    • Tropical
      Storm Goni is not expected to regain typhoon intensity as it races to central Vietnam early this week
    • Landfall
      in central Vietnam is expected late Wednesday or Thursday as a tropical storm and will bring very heavy rain and windy conditions to Vietnam’s Central Highlands
      • Some
        negative impact is possible on coffee and other crop production areas in the Central Highlands, but damage should be low
      • Landfall
        should be between Qui Nhon and Quang Ngai around 1200 GMT Thursday
        • Heavy
          rain from the storm will push across Vietnam’s Central Highlands and then into Cambodia where flooding has already been a problem at times in the past 30 days
  • Tropical
    Depression Astani will remain northeast of the northern Philippines for a while this week, but the storm will likely pass to the north of Luzon Island Thursday and Friday and then move toward southern China with landfall in Guangdong or Guangxi late this week
    • Astani
      will become a tropical storm and possibly a typhoon for a little while before it comes close to any landmass
    • Weakening
      is expected prior to landfall in China
  • Another
    tropical cyclone may form east of the Philippines late this week and move toward Luzon Island with landfall possible during the weekend
  • South
    Africa weekend rain was greatest from western and central North West through central and eastern Free State to western and southern Natal and eastern parts of Eastern Cape
    • Moisture
      totals varied from 0.60 to 3.25 inches with amounts of 2.00 to 3.25 inches common in eastern Free State and Natal
    • Additional
      rain is needed nationwide to support summer crop planting
  • South
    Africa rain will be erratic until Wednesday when a general increase in rain occurs across the nation through Thursday
    • Sufficient
      rainfall will occur to bolster soil moisture for better spring and summer crop development
    • Some
      winter crops might benefit from the moisture, but those crops are needing drier weather to promote maturation and harvesting soon
    • Friday
      and Saturday will be dry and then scattered showers and thunderstorms will resume again providing a very good mix of weather for the nation’s spring and summer crops
  • India
    weather will be favorable for late season crop development and widespread harvesting over the next ten days
    • Winter
      crop planting, emergence and establishment will advance well
    • Rain
      will be confined to the far south and a few areas in the far Eastern States
  • Waves
    of rain will continue to impact parts of Southeast Asia that are not being impacted by tropical cyclones over the next ten days to two weeks; most crop conditions will remain favorable
    • Central
      Vietnam will likely be impacted by Tropical Storm Goni during mid- to late week this week with additional heavy rain and strong wind speeds possible near Da Nang, Hue and Qui Nhon
    • Southern
      China may be impacted by Tropical Storm Astani during mid-week before moving toward northern Vietnam later in the week
  • Central
    Vietnam is advertised to be hit by 5 tropical weather systems over the next two weeks perpetuating its excessive moisture and flood problems
    • The
      nation has already been impacted adversely by frequent tropical weather systems since October 5
  • Brief
    periods of precipitation will move across the European continent over the coming week resulting in a favorable mix of moisture and sunshine for winter crops
    • Fieldwork
      will advance around the precipitation
    • This
      weekend and next week should trend drier
    • Temperatures
      will be near to above average
  • Ontario
    and Quebec, Canada will experience limited precipitation over the coming week to ten days greatly improving harvest progress in the region after abundant moisture in October
  • Southern
    Oscillation Index leveled off and began to rise a little during the weekend. The index was +4.62 this morning; the index fell from a peak of +12.58 on October 13 to a low of +3.83 Saturday
    • The
      index will rise this week
  • Mexico
    precipitation will be quite limited this week
  • Central
    America will be wetter than usual this week especially in Nicaragua and Honduras because of Hurricane Eta moving inland and not completely dissipating
    • Flooding
      is likely along with some crop and property damage

·        
West-central Africa will experience erratic rain through the next ten days favoring crop areas closest to the coast

    • Daily
      rainfall is expected to be decreasing as time moves along which is normal for this time of year
    • Cotton
      areas are benefiting from drier weather

·        
East-central Africa rain will be erratic and light over the next couple of weeks, but most of Uganda and southwestern Kenya will be impacted while Tanzania and northwestern Ethiopia rainfall is erratic and light

    • Some
      heavy rain may fall in Uganda early this week

·        
New Zealand rainfall will be near to above average in North Island and northern parts of South Island while below average in southern South Island

Temperatures
will be near to below average

Source: 
World Weather Inc. 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Monday,
Nov. 2:

  • USDA
    weekly corn, soybean, wheat export inspections, 11am
  • USDA
    soybean crush, corn for ethanol, DDGS output, 3pm
  • U.S.
    crop conditions, harvest for soybeans, corn, cotton, 4pm
  • Costa
    Rica, Honduras October coffee exports
  • Cotton
    supply/demand outlook from International Cotton Advisory Committee
  • Australia
    Commodity Index
  • Ivory
    Coast cocoa arrivals
  • HOLIDAY:
    Brazil

Tuesday,
Nov. 3:

  • U.S.
    Purdue Agriculture Sentiment, 9:30am
  • New
    Zealand global dairy trade auction
  • FT
    Global Food Systems conference
  • EARNINGS:
    Andersons, AB Foods
  • HOLIDAY:
    Japan

Wednesday,
Nov. 4:

  • EIA
    U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
  • New
    Zealand Commodity Price

Thursday,
Nov. 5:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • China’s
    CNGOIC to publish monthly soybean and corn reports
  • FAO
    World Food Price Index
  • Guatemala
    October coffee exports
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • Malaysian
    Nov. 1-5 palm oil export data

Friday,
Nov. 6:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • HOLIDAY:
    Argentina

Saturday,
Nov. 7

  • China’s
    trade data on soybeans and meat imports

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

USDA
inspections versus Reuters trade range                                            

Wheat      
287,059     versus  300000-500000           range

Corn         
721,623     versus  600000-1100000         range

Soybeans  
2,082,741  versus  1500000-2500000       range

 

 

 

GRAINS
INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT

                 
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING OCT 29, 2020

            
               — METRIC TONS —

————————————————————————-

                                                  
CURRENT     PREVIOUS 

             ———–
WEEK ENDING ———-  MARKET YEAR  MARKET YEAR

 GRAIN     
10/29/2020  10/22/2020  10/31/2019    TO DATE     TO DATE  

BARLEY             
0         798       3,134        9,867       11,808 

CORN         
721,623     680,823     283,704    6,867,630    3,762,491 

FLAXSEED           
0           0           0          389          172 

MIXED              
0           0           0            0            0 

OATS               
0           0           0          996          798 

RYE                
0           0           0            0            0 

SORGHUM       
94,454      73,531      67,048      637,099      375,530 

SOYBEANS   
2,082,741   2,818,734   1,483,653   16,584,920    9,556,028 

SUNFLOWER          
0           0           0            0            0 

WHEAT        
287,059     399,645     293,971   11,372,672   10,916,185 

Total      
3,185,877   3,973,531   2,131,510   35,473,573   24,623,012 

————————————————————————

CROP
MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND

FLAXSEED; 
SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.

INCLUDES
WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

 

CME
will revise their futures price limits effective February 2. 

 

StoneX
US yield/production estimates

Corn
November 178.9/14.762; October 179.0/14.942

Soybeans
November 52.1/4.291; October 52.4/4.351

 

Macros

Canadian
Markit Manufacturing PMI Oct: 55.5 (prev 56.0)

US
Markit Manufacturing PMI Oct F: 53.4 (est 53.3; prev 53.3)

US
ISM Manufacturing Oct: 59.3 (est 55.8; prev 55.4)


ISM New Orders Oct: 67.9 (est 62.0; prev 60.2)


ISM Prices Paid Oct: 65.5 (est 60.5; prev 62.8)


ISM Employment Oct: 53.2 (prev 49.6)

 

Corn.

 

 

Corn
Export Developments

  • Under
    the 24-hour announcement system, private exporters sold 204,000 tons of corn to unknown. 

 

Updated
11/02/20

December
corn is seen in a $3.85-$4.10 range

 

Soybean
complex
.
 

  • USDA
    US soybean export inspections as of October 29, 2020 were 2,082,741 tons, within a range of trade expectations, below 2,818,734 tons previous week and compares to 1,483,653 tons year ago. Major countries included China Main for 1,491,291 tons, China T for
    113,426 tons, and Mexico for 108,221 tons.
  • Cedar
    Rapids, IA, soybean basis fell 10 cents to 25 under the January position. 
  • Brazil
    soybean plantings increased by a large amount.  It reached 42 percent as of late last week according to AgRural, up from 23 percent year ago and compares to 46 percent year ago. 
  • AmSpec
    reported palm oil exports during the morning of October at 1.701 million tons, up from 1.631 million tons from September, a 4.3 percent rise.  Meanwhile ITS reported at 5.6 percent increase to 1.690 million tons from 1.601 million during September. 

  • Argentina’s
    government on Friday said China’s Sinograin will increase soybean purchases next year by around 1 million tons to 4 million tons and soybean oil to around 400,000 tons from 300,000 tons. 

 

Perhaps
the largest surprise in the USDA September NASS crush report was the decline in the soybean meal stocks to 341,000 short tons from 421,000 short tons at the end of August and compares to 402,000 short tons year earlier.  Soybean oil stocks were near expectations
at 1.849 billion pounds, above 1.775 billion at the end of 2018-19.  US crushers used 171.0 million soybean bushels, 0.3 below an average trade guess, down from 174.7 million in August and up from 162.3 million during September 2019. 

 

 

Oilseeds
Export Developments

 

Updated
11/02/20

January
soybeans are seen in a $10.30-$11.00 range

December
soybean meal is seen in a $365-$380 range

December
soybean oil is seen in a 32.50-33.50 range

 

Wheat

  • USDA
    US all-wheat export inspections as of October 29, 2020 were 287,059 tons, below a range of trade expectations, below 399,645 tons previous week and compares to 293,971 tons year ago. Major countries included Korea Rep for 82,602 tons, Japan for 65,919 tons,
    and Nigeria for 58,302 tons.
  • China
    sold 2.699 million tons of wheat from state reserves last week according to the National Grain Trade Center, 67.74% put up for auction.  Total sales through the auction since June 22 now total 37.8 million tons.
  • China
    rejected Australia’s appeal to scrap a tariff on its barley exports, according to Reuters.  Duties will remain at 80.5%.
  • US
    wheat futures Paris (Matif) December wheat was down 0.25 euros at 205.00 euros. 

 

Export
Developments.

  • Turkey
    seeks 550,000 tons of wheat on November 11 for Nov 24 and Dec 18 shipment. 
  • Japan
    seeks 91,612 tons of milling wheat this week from the US, Canada and Australia. 
  • Tunisia
    seeks 50,000 tons of soft wheat and 50,000 tons of feed barley on Tuesday for Dec shipment. 
  • Syria
    seeks 150,000 tons of wheat on November 9.  They were in on October 28 for 200,000 tons. 
  • Russian
    wheat was the lowest offer in Ethiopia’s 400,000 tons wheat import tender at $243.90/ton c&f. 
  • Pakistan
    seeks 320,000 tons of wheat on November 3 for arrival by November 3 for arrival by the end of January. 

 

Rice/Other

·        
Syria seeks 37,400 tons of white rice on November 23.  White Chinese/Egyptian short grain white rice of third or fourth class was sought. Shipment is sought within three months of order confirmation. 

 

Updated
11/02/20

December Chicago wheat is seen in a $5.85-6.10
range

December KC wheat is seen in a $5.30-$5.65
range

December MN wheat is seen in a $5.25-$5.65
range

 

Terry Reilly

Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds

Futures International
One Lincoln Center
18 W 140 Butterfield Rd.

Oakbrook Terrace, Il. 60181

W: 312.604.1366

treilly@futures-int.com

ICE IM: 
treilly1

Skype: fi.treilly

 

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