PDF Attached

 

December
corn ended below $4.00.  USDA reported 1,432,500 tons of 24-hour corn sales to Mexico and 140,000 tons of corn to unknown.  This limited losses in corn prices.  Soybeans and meal saw bear spreading as traders shored up long positions, and soybean oil was on
the defensive from lower energy markets.  Wheat was under pressure after a multi-million-dollar rain event occurred across the Great Plains earlier this week. 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

 

 

 

SA Week 2 Accum Precipitation (mm) ForecastSA Week 1 Accum Precipitation (mm) Forecast

 

 

 

NOT
MANY CHANGES OVERNIGHT

  • Hurricane
    Zeta moved inland Wednesday evening in southeastern Louisiana and has raced across the southeastern U.S. overnight with its center at 0800 EDT today 50 miles west of Asheville, N.C. moving northeast at 40 mph while producing wind speeds of 60 mph.
    • Zeta
      produced 70-104 mph wind speeds from southeastern Louisiana to southern Mississippi and into the Mobile, Alabama area last evening
    • Wind
      speeds of 40 to 65 mph occurred from southwest to northeast across Alabama overnight with speeds to 55 mph in northwestern Georgia
    • Rainfall
      varied from 2.00 to 4.24 inches with locally more suspected
    • Some
      eastern sugarcane in Louisiana may have been negatively impacted
    • Cotton
      may have been impacted most by the storm with too much wind and heavy rain impacting some of Alabama’s crop
    • Zeta
      will move out over the Atlantic Ocean this afternoon and be gone as quickly as it came with not much other adversity expected
  • Typhoon
    Goni formed well east of Philippines overnight and was expected to become a super typhoon as it moves toward the Philippines this weekend
    • Landfall
      is expected in Luzon Island late Sunday into Monday as a Category Two or Three hurricane equivalent storm, based on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale
    • Damage
      over the Island will be possible with losses to personal property, infrastructure, rice, sugarcane and some tree crops – depending on the storm’s ultimate intensity
  • A
    developing tropical disturbance near the Windward Islands was moving west northwesterly and will move into the Caribbean Sea Friday and during the weekend
    • This
      system is expected to evolve into a new named tropical cyclone by the end of the weekend and could move inland over Honduras or Nicaragua early to mid-week next week
      • Very
        heavy rain and flooding will impact these areas with some property and crop damage possible
  • Russia’s
    Southern Region and Ukraine will receive periods of rain Friday through much of next week
    • Resulting
      rainfall will improve winter crop establishment, although it is rather late in the season
    • Moisture
      totals of 0.30 to 0.80 inch and local totals of 1.00 to 1.50 inches will result from Ukraine into western parts of Russia’s Southern Region
    • Eastern
      parts of Russia’s Southern Region (including the lower Volga River Valley) and Kazakhstan will be left dry
  • Snow
    totals in the U.S. southwestern Plains Thursday ranged from 1 to 5 inches with a local total to 8 inches west of Amarillo, Texas
  • Moisture
    totals in the southern U.S. Plains from rain, freezing rain and snow Wednesday varied from 0.30 to 1.00 inch most often with local totals reaching 2.22 inches through 0100 CDT
    • Additional
      rain will linger in southern Kansas and parts of Oklahoma today
  • Some
    west-central U.S. Plains wheat areas did not receive quite as much moisture as hoped for this week, but big improvements did occur from southern Kansas through Oklahoma to north-central Texas and the Texas Panhandle
    • Southeastern
      Colorado and west-central into far southwestern Kansas will need more moisture
  • Lower
    U.S. Midwest, northern Delta and Tennessee River Basin will receive additional rain today
    • Moisture
      totals will be light, but enough will occur to maintain wet field conditions
  • U.S.
    weather in the central and southwestern Plains, lower Midwest, Delta and southeastern states will improve greatly later today and Friday and last through next week as drier weather evolves
    • Temperatures
      will trend warmer until late this weekend and early next week when a shot of colder air moves across the northern Plains throughout most of the eastern United States
  • U.S.
    temperatures in the western Plains and far western United States will rise above average next week after this week’s bitter cold
    • Snow
      will melt from most areas during the week
    • Mild
      to cool temperatures will occur in the eastern U.S. this weekend into early next week
    • Another
      shot of cool air will push into the western and north-central U.S. during the second weekend of the two week outlook bringing colder temperatures and some rain and snow to the western and north-central states
  • Interior
    portions of the U.S. Pacific Northwest will receive a limited amount of moisture during the coming week,  although mountainous areas and coastal areas will see some periodic rain and snow
  • Some
    forecast models are predicting a major winter storm for the central and eastern Canada Prairies and a part of the northern U.S. Plains for Nov. 7-8, the storm may be exaggerated today, but a significant event may be possible
  • California
    and the southwestern United States will remain dry for much of the coming ten days
  • Argentina
    will see drier weather evolve over the coming week to ten days
    • A
      few showers will be possible briefly in the south and east during mid-week next week
    • The
      drier bias will excellent for soybean, corn and sunseed planting in areas that have just received significant moisture
    • Winter
      crop conditions will continue to improve during this period of time
    • Rain
      will be needed again at the end of this ten-day period
  • Brazil’s
    rainfall outlook for the next ten days has not changed much from that of Wednesday
    • Rain
      will fall in most of the nation at one time or another, but amounts will be least frequent and least significant in the interior south; including southwestern Sao Paulo, Parana and Santa Catarina
      • None
        of the drier areas will be a concern for now since planting will advance aggressively off of the lighter rain that falls in those areas
      • Portions
        of central and northern Minas Gerais, Espirito Santo and immediate neighboring areas will be a little too wet in time
    • Summer
      crop planting and early development should advance well
  • Eastern
    Australia rainfall recently has raised some concern over winter wheat, barley and canola quality
    • Drier
      weather is needed to protect crops until harvesting is complete
    • The
      moisture was good for cotton, sorghum and other summer crops especially in unirrigated areas
      • Planting
        will advance more aggressively after this week’s rain
    • Winter
      wheat, barley and canola welcomed the rain in the south, but drier weather will soon be needed in the north to protect grain quality
    • World
      Weather, Inc. does not believe a serious decline in crop conditions has occurred, but drying will be very important to protect crops and support harvesting
  • Eastern
    Australia will get a mix of rain and sunshine over the next two weeks; rain frequency is not likely to be so great as to cause a serious change in crop quality, but the situation will be closely monitored
    • La
      Nina conditions could present greater rainfall a little later this spring and early summer raising concern over crop conditions
  • Western
    Australia may receive a little rain Sunday and Monday
    • Most
      of the precipitation will be light, but welcome for late maturing winter crops
  • South
    Africa received some rain in 10-15% of the summer crop region Wednesday
    • Greater
      rain is needed throughout the nation to support better spring and summer crop planting and emergence conditions
    • An
      erratic rainfall pattern is expected through Friday while temperatures are warm to hot
    • Some
      greater rain will evolve during the weekend and next week that may be more beneficial in raising topsoil moisture for better planting, emergence and establishment of corn, soybeans, cotton, peanuts, sorghum, sunseed and other crops
  • India
    weather will be favorable for late season crop development and widespread harvesting over the next ten days
    • Winter
      crop planting, emergence and establishment will advance well too
  • Much
    of China was dry Wednesday and more of the same will occur for a while in the coming week to ten days
    • A
      few showers will occur periodically, but fieldwork will advance around them and the moisture will be good for winter crop planting, emergence and establishment
  • Waves
    of rain will continue to impact parts of Southeast Asia that are not being impacted by tropical cyclones over the next ten days to two weeks; most crop conditions will remain favorable
  • Brief
    periods of precipitation will move across the European continent over the coming week resulting in a favorable mix of moisture and sunshine for winter crops
    • Fieldwork
      will advance around the precipitation
    • This
      weekend and next week should trend drier
    • Temperatures
      will be near to above average
  • Western
    CIS precipitation (outside of Ukraine and Russia’s Southern Region) will be erratic and temperatures will be warmer than usual
    • Winter
      crops are turning dormant in the west and north which is normal
  • Kazakhstan
    is unlikely to get meaningful moisture in the next ten days, although some sporadic showers may evolve late this week or during the weekend
  • Ontario
    and Quebec, Canada harvest delays will slowly improve into next week because of less precipitation
    • The
      region needs to dry out
  • Canada’s
    Prairies will experience some rain, freezing rain and snow early this week and then several days of drying are expected
    • A
      major winter storm might impact a part of the region Nov. 7-8
  • Southern
    Oscillation Index fell during the weekend down to +4.21 and the index may continue to drifting lower over the next couple of days; the index has fallen from a peak of +12.58 on October 13.
  • Mexico
    precipitation will be scattered over far southern crop areas during the coming week
    • Net
      drying is expected for many other summer crop areas supporting crop maturation and harvest progress
  • Central
    America will be wetter than usual over the next ten days to two weeks keeping late season crop maturation and harvest progress slow, but the moisture is improving long term water supply.
    • Some
      flooding is possible
    • A
      tropical cyclone may impact Honduras or Nicaragua early to mid-week next week

·        
West-central Africa will experience erratic rain through the next ten days favoring coffee, cocoa, sugarcane, rice and other crops

    • Daily
      rainfall is expected to be decreasing as time moves along which is normal for this time of year
    • Cotton
      areas will benefit from drier weather

·        
East-central Africa rain will be erratic and light over the next couple of weeks, but most of Uganda and southwestern Kenya will be impacted while Tanzania and northwestern Ethiopia rainfall is erratic and light

    • Some
      heavy rain may fall in Uganda early this week

·        
New Zealand rainfall will be near to above average in western areas of South Island over the coming week while below average elsewhere

    • Temperatures
      will be seasonable

Source: 
World Weather Inc. 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Thursday,
Oct. 29:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • Vietnam’s
    General Statistics Office releases commodity trade data for October
  • International
    Grains Council monthly report
  • EARNINGS:
    ADM
  • HOLIDAY:
    Indonesia, Malaysia

Friday,
Oct. 30:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • U.S.
    agricultural prices paid, received, 3pm
  • HOLIDAY:
    Indonesia

Monday,
Nov. 2:

  • USDA
    weekly corn, soybean, wheat export inspections, 11am
  • USDA
    soybean crush, corn for ethanol, DDGS output, 3pm
  • U.S.
    crop conditions, harvest for soybeans, corn, cotton, 4pm
  • Costa
    Rica, Honduras October coffee exports
  • Cotton
    supply/demand outlook from International Cotton Advisory Committee
  • Australia
    Commodity Index
  • Ivory
    Coast cocoa arrivals
  • HOLIDAY:
    Brazil

Tuesday,
Nov. 3:

  • U.S.
    Purdue Agriculture Sentiment, 9:30am
  • New
    Zealand global dairy trade auction
  • FT
    Global Food Systems conference
  • EARNINGS:
    Andersons, AB Foods
  • HOLIDAY:
    Japan

Wednesday,
Nov. 4:

  • EIA
    U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
  • New
    Zealand Commodity Price

Thursday,
Nov. 5:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • China’s
    CNGOIC to publish monthly soybean and corn reports
  • FAO
    World Food Price Index
  • Guatemala
    October coffee exports
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • Malaysian
    Nov. 1-5 palm oil export data

Friday,
Nov. 6:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • HOLIDAY:
    Argentina

Saturday,
Nov. 7

  • China’s
    trade data on soybeans and meat imports

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

USDA
Export Sales

·        
Export sales for the US soybean complex were withing expectations.  Of the 1.621 million tons of soybeans, 1.074 million were for China.  Soybean commitments are running 81 percent of USDA’s export
projection. 

·        
Corn export sales of 2.244 million tons were well above expectations and included 763,700 tons for unknown.  Pork sales were 29,000 tons.

·        
USDA export sales for all-wheat of 743,200 tons were above expectations. 

 

 

 

Macros

US
GDP Annualized (Q/Q) Q3 A: 33.1% (est 32.0%; prev -31.4%)

US
Core PCE (Q/Q) Q3 A: 3.5% (est 4.0%; prev -0.8%)

US
GDP Price Index Q3 A: 3.6% (est 2.9%; prev -1.8%)

US
GDP Personal Consumption Q3 A: 40.7% (est 38.9%; prev -33.2%)

US
Initial Jobless Claims Oct 24: 751K (est 770K; prevR 791K; prev 787K)

US
Continuing Claims Oct 17: 7756K (est 7775K; prevR 8465K; prev 8373K)

Canadian
Building Permits (M/M) Sep: 17.0% (prev 1.7%)

Canadian
Payrolls Rise 303.2K In August – StatsCan

 

Corn.

 

Corn
Export Developments

  • USDA
    reported the following 24-hour sales:
    • Export
      sales of 1,432,550 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico. Of the total, 891,540 metric tons is for delivery during the 2020/2021 marketing year and 541,010 metric tons is for delivery during the 2021/2022 marketing year
    • Export
      sales of 140,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2020/2021 marketing year.
  • South
    Korea’s FLC bought 68,000 tons of corn, unknown origin, at $249.28 / ton for arrival around March 15. 
  • South
    Korea’s MFG bought 134,000 tons of US corn at $253.74/ton fob for Jan 10-29 shipment and $251.50/ton.  The barley was bought in four consignments at about 230 euros ($269.3) a ton. Shipment had been sought in November and December 2020 and in January 2021.
  • South
    Korea’s KFA bought 65,000 tons of corn, optional origin, at $252.25 / ton for arrival around April 15. 
  • Iran’s
    SLAL bought around 260,000 tons feed barley and passed on 200,000 tons of corn for Nov-Jan shipment. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Updated
10/29/20

December
corn is seen in a $3.90-$4.30 range (lowered 10 cents)

 

Soybean
complex
.
 

  • November
    soybeans traded the day mostly lower, ending below its 20-day MA, at $10.5175, down 5.50 cents.  Soybean meal managed to end higher with bearish spreading limiting December to gain only $0.20 while July was up $2.70.  December soybean oil was pulled down by
    weaker energy prices, settling 36 points lower.  Ongoing economic concerns continues to weigh on commodity markets. 
  • Today
    was position day for November soybeans.  We don’t expect ant first notice day deliveries. 
  • USDA
    export sales for the US soybean complex were withing expectations.  Of the 1.621 million tons of soybeans, 1.074 million were for China.  Soybean commitments are running 81 percent of USDA’s export projection. 
  • Last
    week the US sold one cargo of soybeans to Brazil and traders are still trying to figure out logistics. Some sources could not confirm this.  Separately,
    President
    Jair Bolsonaro said on social media that Brazil is importing food staples, including soybeans and rice.  About 400,000 tons of US rice was imported. 
  • China
    buying interest for Brazilian soybeans increased Wednesday for March through July shipment.  At least one cargo traded, for April shipment. 
  • China
    may start sourcing soybeans from Tanzania but volumes, if any, will be low.  Tanzania has a wide trade gap (in the red) with China. 
  • Hurricane
    Zeta that hit Louisiana coast was expected to slow US Gulf grain loadings, but CIF Gulf was down 1-3 cents in the nearby.  Vessels resumed movement after rain let up midday yesterday.  This was the record fifth hurricane or tropical storm to hit Louisiana
    this year. 
  • Argentina’s
    oilseed crushing union SOEA, which represents workers located in San Lorenzo in Santa Fe, said the 11,000-peso covid-19 relief payment ($140.72) fell short of expectations. 
  • China
    rapeseed oil futures were up nearly 3% on Thursday due to demand from state-backed stock replenishment, shrugging off wider bearishness across global financial markets.

 

Oilseeds
Export Developments

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Updated
10/29/20

January
soybeans are seen in a $10.30-$11.00 range

December
soybean meal is seen in a $370-$390 range

December
soybean oil is seen in a 32.80-33.50 range

 

Wheat

  • USDA
    export sales for all-wheat of 743,200 tons were above expectations. 
  • Paris
    (Matif) December wheat was up 1.00 euro at 205.00 euros.  Technical buying was noted. 
  • IGC
    raised its estimate for global wheat production by 1 million tons to 764 million tons. 
  • The
    BA Grains Exchange reported Argentina was 6 percent complete on wheat harvest progress, up nearly 3 points from the previous week.  They left their production estimate unchanged at 16.8 million tons.
  • The
    USDA Attaché sees Argentina’s 2020-21 wheat production at 17.4 million tons, 1.6 million tons below USDA’s official forecast.  Local estimates are as low as 16.5 million tons. 

https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Grain%20and%20Feed%20Update_Buenos%20Aires_Argentina_10-15-2020

  • Rains
    should favor far eastern Queensland, eastern and southern New South Wales, Victoria, and eastern South Australia through Saturday. 
  • Southern
    Russia will see rain on and off through at least the first week of November.  Most of Russia’s winter grain areas will see slightly above normal temperatures which will be beneficial for crop establishment.

 

Export
Developments.

  • Russian
    wheat was the lowest offer in Ethiopia’s 400,000 tons wheat import tender at $243.90/ton c&f. 
  • Results
    awaited:  Syria seeks 200,000 tons of wheat from the Black Sea on October 28.
  • Pakistan
    seeks 320,000 tons of wheat on November 3 for arrival by November 3 for arrival by the end of January. 

 

Rice/Other

·        
Vietnam Jan-Oct rice exports fell 4.0 percent from the previous ten months in 2019 to 5.29 million tons. 

·        
Syria seeks 37,400 tons of white rice on November 23.  White Chinese/Egyptian short grain white rice of third or fourth class was sought. Shipment is sought within three months of order confirmation. 

 

 

Updated
10/29/20 (lowered)

December Chicago wheat is seen in a $5.85-6.15
range

December KC wheat is seen in a $5.30-$5.75
range

December MN wheat is seen in a $5.25-$5.80
range

 

 

U.S. EXPORT SALES FOR WEEK ENDING 10/22/2020       

 

 

CURRENT MARKETING YEAR

NEXT MARKETING YEAR

COMMODITY

NET SALES

OUTSTANDING SALES

WEEKLY EXPORTS

ACCUMULATED EXPORTS

NET SALES

OUTSTANDING SALES

CURRENT YEAR

YEAR
AGO

CURRENT YEAR

YEAR
AGO

 

THOUSAND METRIC TONS

WHEAT

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   HRW    

130.7

1,553.2

1,190.9

220.8

4,365.1

4,195.6

0.0

22.0

   SRW    

16.8

384.8

573.3

35.9

915.3

1,248.7

0.0

100.0

   HRS     

150.1

1,566.0

1,234.0

91.1

2,995.7

2,758.6

40.0

45.0

   WHITE   

448.7

1,823.0

943.3

77.9

2,017.4

1,836.6

20.0

20.0

   DURUM  

-3.1

200.9

279.0

16.9

338.5

317.9

0.0

0.0

     TOTAL

743.2

5,527.8

4,220.5

442.5

10,632.1

10,357.3

60.0

187.0

BARLEY

0.0

31.6

38.0

1.3

10.4

19.5

0.0

0.0

CORN

2,243.7

24,453.2

7,784.0

734.2

6,125.1

3,621.1

0.0

206.0

SORGHUM

60.8

2,756.9

276.1

56.4

519.9

46.0

68.0

204.0

SOYBEANS

1,620.7

32,850.8

11,316.7

2,696.1

14,119.3

7,831.3

9.0

69.0

SOY MEAL

199.3

3,494.3

3,115.4

298.1

646.2

790.1

0.0

18.1

SOY OIL

6.0

190.3

147.2

9.4

30.9

86.0

0.0

0.0

RICE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   L G RGH

20.5

518.0

409.5

27.7

153.3

370.7

0.0

0.0

   M S RGH

0.0

20.7

18.8

0.5

8.2

12.0

0.0

0.0

   L G BRN

0.0

12.0

14.9

0.1

9.4

13.1

0.0

0.0

   M&S BR

0.0

19.8

11.2

0.9

29.8

1.3

0.0

0.0

   L G MLD

58.9

86.2

151.5

20.5

109.0

287.4

0.0

0.0

   M S MLD

42.1

150.6

130.1

5.0

84.9

135.0

0.0

0.0

     TOTAL

121.5

807.4

735.9

54.5

394.6

819.5

0.0

0.0

COTTON

 

THOUSAND RUNNING BALES      

   UPLAND

288.7

5,821.8

7,029.8

228.8

2,927.9

2,354.4

0.9

521.1

   PIMA

32.7

271.4

131.5

15.9

139.1

99.8

0.0

0.7

 

 

Export Sales Highlights

This
summary is based on reports from exporters for the period October 16-22, 2020.

 

·        
Wheat:
  Net
sales of 743,200 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 54 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for South Korea (195,000 MT), Mexico (111,400 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Japan (61,700
MT, including decreases of 1,200 MT), the Philippines (60,000 MT), and China (60,000 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for Guatemala (14,000 MT).  For 2021/2022, total net sales of 60,000 MT were for the Philippines.  Exports of 442,500 MT were up noticeably
from the previous week, but down 14 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Japan (105,400 MT), Guatemala (70,700 MT), Brazil (65,900 MT, including 32,900 MT late – see below), Taiwan (53,200 MT), and Mexico (39,100 MT). 
Optional Origin Sales:  For 2020/2021, the current outstanding balance of 10,000 MT, all Spain. 
Late Reporting:  For 2020/2021, exports totaling 46,000 MT were reported late.  The destinations were Brazil (32,900 MT) and Trinidad (13,100 MT).

  • Corn: 
    Net sales of 2,243,700 MT for 2020/2021 were up 23 percent from the previous week and 56 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for unknown destinations (763,700 MT), Mexico (496,800 MT, including decreases of 7,000 MT), Japan (483,200
    MT, including 11,900 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 58,400 MT), Colombia (187,100 MT, including decreases of 16,300 MT), and Israel (82,500 MT), were offset by reductions for the Dominican Republic (15,500 MT), Costa Rica (13,500 MT),
    and Canada (7,600 MT).  Exports of 734,200 MT were down 18 percent from the previous week and 14 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico (253,200 MT), China (134,100 MT), Colombia (80,000 MT), Japan (71,400 MT), and
    Guatemala (62,300 MT).  Optional Origin Sales:  For 2020/2021, new optional origin sales of 322,800 MT were reported for Japan (123,000 MT), unknown destinations (114,000 MT), South Korea (55,000 MT), Ukraine (30,000 MT), and Taiwan (800 MT).  Options
    was exercised to export 127,000 MT to Argentina from other than the United States.  The current outstanding balance of 1,030,600 MT is for Vietnam (260,000 MT), Taiwan (205,000 MT), unknown destinations (167,600 MT), Ukraine (155,000 MT), Japan (123,000 MT),
    and South Korea (120,000 MT).
  • Barley: 
    No net sales were reported for the week.  Exports of 1,300 MT were to Japan (700 MT), South Korea (300 MT), and Taiwan (300 MT).
  • Sorghum: 
    Net sales of 60,800 MT for 2020/2021 resulting in increases for China (118,800 MT, including 58,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 2,200 MT), were offset by reductions for unknown destinations (58,000 MT).  For 2021/2022, total net
    sales of 68,000 MT were for China.  Exports of 56,400 MT were to China.
  • Rice: 
    Net sales of 121,500 MT for 2020/2021 were up 99 percent from the
    previous week and 7 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Haiti (52,600 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), Japan (39,000 MT), Mexico (20,100 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Canada (2,900 MT), and Brazil (2,000 MT), were offset
    by reductions for El Salvador (1,000 MT).  E
    xports of 54,500 MT were
    down 36 percent from the previous week, but up 49 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Brazil (25,900 MT), Haiti (15,200 MT), Mexico (3,400 MT), Saudi Arabia (3,000 MT), and Canada (2,800 MT).
  • Soybeans: 
    Net sales of 1,620,700 MT for 2020/2021 were down 27 percent from the previous week and 35 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (1,073,900 MT, including 593,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 88,400
    MT), Mexico (178,700 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), the Netherlands (175,600 MT, including 165,500 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 5,400 MT), Egypt (153,400 MT), and Singapore (65,100 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for
    unknown destinations (350,500 MT).  For 2021/2022, total net sales of 9,000 MT were for Japan.  Exports of 2,696,100 MT were up 7 percent from the previous week and 35 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to China (1,939,800
    MT), Mexico (187,400 MT), the Netherlands (175,600 MT), Thailand (82,300 MT), and South Korea (60,000 MT). 
    Optional Origin Sales:  For 2020/2021, the current outstanding balance of 126,000 MT, all China. 
    Exports for Own Account:  For 2020/2021, new exports for own account totaling 25,000 MT were to Canada.  The current exports for own account outstanding balance is 32,300 MT, all Canada. 
    Late Reporting:  For 2020/2021, exports totaling 28,400 MT were reported late.  The destination was Egypt.
  • Soybean Cake and Meal
    Net sales of 199,300 MT for 2020/2021 primarily for Mexico (84,200 MT, including decreases of 18,100 MT), Colombia (44,400 MT), Ecuador (24,400 MT, including decreases of 700 MT), the Philippines (20,000 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and Morocco (16,500
    MT), were offset by reductions primarily for China (20,000 MT).  Exports of 298,100 MT were primarily to Spain (50,900 MT), the Philippines (46,900 MT), Mexico (44,300 MT), Colombia (34,500 MT), and the Dominican Republic (31,200 MT). 
  • Soybean Oil: 
    Net sales of 6,000 MT for 2020/2021 primarily for Canada (2,200 MT),
    El Salvador (2,000 MT, switched from Nicaragua), the Dominican Republic (1,100 MT, including decreases of 1,700 MT), Venezuela (1,000 MT), and Costa Rica (1,000 MT), were offset by reductions for Nicaragua (2,000 MT).  E
    xports
    of 9,400 MT were primarily to Guatemala (4,500 MT), Mexico (1,700 MT), Canada (1,000 MT), Honduras (1,000 MT), and the Dominican Republic (1,000 MT).
  • Cotton: 
    Net sales of 288,700 RB for 2020/2021 were up 27 percent from the previous week and 56 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Pakistan (125,900 RB, including decreases of 700 RB), China (81,400 RB, including decreases of 12,500 RB),
    Mexico (41,600 RB, including decreases of 2,800 RB), Egypt (26,400 RB), and Vietnam (25,800 RB, including 2,100 RB switched from Japan and decreases of 1,900 RB), were offset by reductions primarily for Turkey (40,300 RB).  For 2021/2022, net sales of 900
    RB resulting in increases of Mexico (3,100 RB) and Brazil (400 RB), were offset by reductions for China (2,600 RB).  Exports of 228,800 RB were up 18 percent from the previous week and 23 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Exports were primarily to China
    (103,600 RB), Vietnam (22,600 RB), Mexico (17,500 RB), Pakistan (16,200 RB), and Indonesia (12,500 RB).  Net sales of Pima totaling 32,700 RB–a marketing-year high–were up 10 percent from the previous week and 47 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases
    were primarily for China (10,600 RB, including decreases of 2,200 RB), India (6,000 RB), Vietnam (5,400 RB, including 900 RB switched from Hong Kong), Pakistan (4,100 RB), and Thailand (2,000 RB), were offset by reductions for Hong Kong (900 RB).  Exports
    of 15,900 RB were up noticeably from the previous week and up 36 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to China (6,700 RB), Bangladesh (2,900 RB), Vietnam (2,600 RB), India (1,000 RB), and Pakistan (700 RB).  
    Exports for Own Account:  For 2020/2021, exports for own account totaling 7,400 RB to China were applied to new or outstanding sales.  The current exports for own account outstanding balance of 12,700 RB is for China (7,800 RB), Indonesia (3,900 RB),
    and Bangladesh (1,000 RB).
  • Hides
    and Skins:
     
    Net sales of 417,100 pieces for 2020 were down 13 percent from the previous week, but up 17 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (334,000 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 21,800 pieces), South Korea (51,400 whole
    cattle hides, including decreases of 1,200 pieces), Mexico (26,800 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 1,500 pieces), Taiwan (3,500 whole cattle hides, including decreases of 400 pieces), Thailand (3,400 whole cattle hides), and Italy (700 whole cattle
    hides), were offset by reductions for Canada (300 pieces).  Additionally, total net sales reductions of 300 kip skins were reported for Belgium.  Exports of 457,600 pieces reported for 2020 were up 15 percent from the previous week and 4 percent from the prior
    4-week average.  Whole cattle hides exports were primarily to China (355,600 pieces), South Korea (49,100 pieces), Mexico (35,700 pieces), Taiwan (3,500 pieces), and Turkey (2,900 pieces).  In addition, exports of 5,100 kip skins were primary to China (2,600
    kip skins).

·        
Net sales of 59,600 wet blues

for 2020 were down 66 percent from the previous week and 57 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for Thailand (45,600 unsplit, including decreases of 400 unsplit), ), China (30,400 unsplit, including decreases of 700 unsplit), Vietnam
(9,500 unsplit, including decreases of 100 unsplit), Taiwan (9,300 unsplit), and Mexico (3,300 unsplit, including decreases of 200 unsplit), were offset by reductions for Italy (30,800 unsplit and 8,300 grain splits) and Brazil (200 grain splits).  For 2021,
total net sales of 67,400 wet blues were reported for Italy (33,000 unsplit and 17,900 grain splits), Thailand (10,000 unsplit), and Taiwan (6,500 unsplit).  Exports of 185,900 wet blues for 2020 were up 46 percent from the previous week and 22 percent from
the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to China (56,200 unsplit), Italy (29,000 unsplit and 6,600 grain splits), Vietnam (31,300 unsplit and 4,000 grain splits), Thailand (31,300 unsplit), and Brazil (7,600 grain splits and 2,400 unsplit). 
Net sales of 7,900 splits were for Vietnam (7,400 pounds, including decreases of 15,000 pounds) and Taiwan (500 pounds).  For 2021, total net sales of 721,300 splits were for Vietnam.  Exports of 441,500 pounds were to Vietnam (358,000 pounds), Taiwan (42,500
pounds), and China (41,000 pounds).

·        
Beef: 
Net sales of 18,900 MT reported
for 2020 were down 13 percent from the previous week and 6 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases primarily for China (4,300 MT), Japan (4,200 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), South Korea (4,200 MT, including decreases of 1,500 MT), Mexico (2,200
MT), and Taiwan (1,400 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for Colombia (100 MT) and Chile (100 MT).  For 2021, net sales of 4,600 MT were primarily for Japan (2,700 MT), South Korea (1,100 MT), Hong Kong (500 MT), and Guatemala
(200 MT).  Exports of 16,900 MT were down 5 percent from the previous week, but unchanged from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Japan (4,300 MT), South Korea (3,700 MT), Mexico (1,900 MT), Hong Kong (1,700 MT), and China (1,600
MT).

·        
Pork: 
Net sales of 29,000 MT reported
for 2020 were up 8 percent from the previous week, but down 24 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for Mexico (8,400 MT, including decreases of 1,500 MT), Japan (6,400 MT, including decreases of 200 MT),  South Korea (2,900 MT,
including decreases of 400 MT), China (2,500 MT, including decreases of 600 MT), and Australia (2,200 MT).  For 2021, net sales of 7,000 MT were primarily for Australia (5,500 MT) and China (1,300 MT).  Exports of 37,100 MT were up 2 percent from the previous
week and 5 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to China (12,900 MT), Mexico (11,000 MT), Japan (4,500 MT), Canada (2,400 MT), and South Korea (2,100 MT).

 

Terry Reilly

Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds

Futures International
One Lincoln Center
18 W 140 Butterfield Rd.

Oakbrook Terrace, Il. 60181

W: 312.604.1366

treilly@futures-int.com

ICE IM: 
treilly1

Skype: fi.treilly

 

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