PDF Attached


note I will be out of the office on Wednesday, October 28. 


demand erosion fears from a second global covid outbreak wave setting in.  Brazil corn prices hit a all time high and Anec downward revises Brazil’s October corn export projection.  China corn buying may end up above 15 million tons in 2020-21. 



and Crop Progress





  • Russia’s
    Southern Region and Ukraine will receive rain from Friday through the first part of next week
    • Resulting
      rainfall will improve winter crop establishment, although it is rather late in the season
  • An
    ice storm will impact the southwestern U.S. Plains today resulting in serious livestock stress, travel delays and power outages from western Texas through south-central Kansas
  • Significant
    moisture will fall from western Texas and north-central Texas through Oklahoma to south-central Kansas into Thursday morning seriously bolstering soil moisture for improved winter wheat development
    • Winter
      crop ratings in the southern Plains were terrible in USDA’s crop progress report, but improvement is expected following this week’s precipitation
    • Temperatures
      will trend warmer than usual in the first half of November (if not most of the month) and that will translate into better crop establishment after recent rainfall
    • Local
      flooding is possible with moisture totals of 2.00 to 4.00 inches and locally more expected in the described region
  • Tropical
    Storm Zeta will bring a band of heavy rain to the area from southeastern Louisiana through the northwest half of Alabama to Tennessee and the southern Appalachian Mountain region late Wednesday and Thursday
    • Rain
      totals of 2.00 to 6.00 inches will result in some flooding
    • More
      potential damage is possible for some unharvested cotton in the region
    • Zeta
      will come ashore as a weakening hurricane with strong wind speeds in southeastern Louisiana, southeastern Mississippi and southwestern Alabama
      • Some
        property damage is expected
    • Sugarcane
      that has not been harvested in far southeastern Louisiana may be damaged by the storm
  • Lower
    U.S. Midwest, northern Delta and Tennessee River Basin will receive significant rain and experience local flooding Wednesday and Thursday with much improved weather Friday into next week
  • U.S.
    weather in the central and southwestern Plains, lower Midwest, Delta and southeastern states will improve late this week through next week as drier weather evolves
  • U.S.
    temperatures in the Plains and western states will rise above average next week after this week’s bitter cold
    • Snow
      will melt from most areas during the week
    • Cool
      temperatures will occur in the eastern U.S. this weekend into early next week
    • Most
      of the extreme cold in the northern Plains is abating today and that in the central Plains will abate in the second half of this week
  • U.S.
    Pacific Northwest will be drier this week after receiving some rain and mountain snow during the weekend
    • Another
      chance for rain and snow may evolve next week
  • California
    and the southwestern United States will remain dry for much of the coming ten days
  • Tropical
    Storm Zeta produced heavy rain over the Yucatan Peninsula overnight resulting in some flooding and wind damage
    • The
      storm will move over the Gulf of Mexico and early Wednesday helping the system become a hurricane once again
  • Central
    Argentina will receive follow up showers today and Wednesday before dry weather occurs late this week and lasts through the first half of next week
    • Next
      rain opportunity will be Nov. 4-6 with a few showers in the far southwest Nov. 3
    • The
      drier biased weather will be fantastic for aggressive spring and summer crop planting after recent rainfall and associated moisture boost
    • Rain
      was great for long term wheat and early season corn and sunseed development
  • Brazil’s
    rainfall outlook for the next ten days has not changed much from that of Monday
    • Rain
      will fall in most of the nation at one time or another, but rainfall will be least frequent and least significant in the interior south; including southwestern Sao Paulo, Parana and Santa Catarina
      • None
        of the drier areas will be a concern for now since planting will advance aggressively off of the lighter rain that falls in those areas
      • Portions
        of central and northern Minas Gerais, Espirito Santo and immediate neighboring areas will be a little too wet in time
    • Summer
      crop planting and early development should advance well
  • Eastern
    Australia rainfall recently has raised some concern over winter wheat, barley and canola quality
    • Drier
      weather is needed to protect crops until harvesting is complete
    • The
      moisture was good for cotton, sorghum and other summer crops especially in unirrigated areas
      • Planting
        will advance more aggressively after this week’s rain
    • Winter
      wheat, barley and canola welcomed the rain in the south, but drier weather will soon be needed in the north to protect grain quality
  • Eastern
    Australia will get a mix of rain and sunshine over the next two weeks; rain frequency is not likely to be so great as to cause a serious change in crop quality, but the situation will be closely monitored
    • La
      Nina conditions could present greater rainfall a little later this spring and early summer raising concern over crop conditions
  • Western
    Australia will continue to get very little rain for the next ten days, although totally dry weather is not expected
  • South
    Africa received some rain in 25% of the summer crop region Monday
    • Greater
      rain is needed throughout the nation to support better spring and summer crop planting and emergence conditions
    • An
      erratic rainfall pattern is expected through the end of this week while temperatures are warm to hot
    • Some
      greater rain will evolve during the weekend and next week that may be more beneficial in raising topsoil moisture for better planting, emergence and establishment of corn, soybeans, cotton, peanuts, sorghum, sunseed and other crops
  • India
    weather will be favorable for late season crop development and widespread harvesting over the next ten days
    • Winter
      crop planting, emergence and establishment will advance well too
  • Much
    of China was dry Monday and more of the same will occur for a while in the coming week to ten days
    • A
      few showers will occur periodically, but fieldwork will advance around them and the moisture will be good for winter crop planting, emergence and establishment
  • Typhoon
    Molave was located 332 miles east southeast of Da Nang, Vietnam at 0900 GMT today moving westerly.
    • Molave
      has reached its peak intensity with wind speeds to 126 mph near its center
      • Weakening
        is expected as the storm approaches Vietnam
      • Landfall
        will be near Da Nang, Vietnam once again and more torrential flooding is possible along with some damaging wind as the storm reaches the coast
    • Crops
      and property will be damaged and the port of Da Nang and Hue, Vietnam will likely be shut down once again as the storm comes ashore
      • More
        damage to the port is expected
      • This
        month has been unusually stormy for the central Vietnam coast and damage to the ports of Da Nang and Hue has been significant
  • Another
    tropical cyclone will form east of the Philippines this week and pass across central parts of the nation Friday
    • Additional
      heavy rain is likely and more flooding as well as possible wind damage
      • This
        storm is expected to be weak relative to Molave which brought damage to the northern Visayan Islands earlier this week
  • Waves
    of rain will continue impact parts of Southeast Asia that not being impacted by tropical cyclones over the next ten days to two weeks; most crop conditions will remain favorable
  • Brief
    periods of precipitation will move across the European continent over the coming week resulting in a favorable mix of moisture and sunshine for winter crops
    • Fieldwork
      will advance around the precipitation
    • This
      weekend and next week should trend drier
    • Temperatures
      will be near to above average
  • Western
    CIS crop weather this week will bring erratic precipitation and warmer than usual temperatures
    • Winter
      crops are turning dormant in the west and north which is normal
  • Kazakhstan
    is unlikely to get meaningful moisture in the next ten days, although some sporadic showers may evolve late this week or during the weekend
  • Ontario
    and Quebec, Canada harvest delays will slowly improve later this week and into next week because of less precipitation
    • The
      region needs to dry out
  • Canada’s
    Prairies will experience some rain, freezing rain and snow early this week and then several days of drying are expected
  • Southern
    Oscillation Index fell during the weekend down to +5.83 and the index may continue to drift a little lower before leveling off this week
  • Mexico
    precipitation will be scattered over far southern crop areas during the coming week
    • Net
      drying is expected for many other summer crop areas supporting crop maturation and harvest progress
  • Central
    America will be wetter than usual over the next ten days to two weeks keeping late season crop maturation and harvest progress slow, but the moisture is improving long term water supply.
    • Some
      flooding is possible


West-central Africa will experience erratic rain through the next ten days favoring coffee, cocoa, sugarcane, rice and other crops

    • Daily
      rainfall is expected to be decreasing as time moves along which is normal for this time of year
    • Cotton
      areas will benefit from drier weather


East-central Africa rain will be erratic and light over the next couple of weeks, but most of Uganda and southwestern Kenya will be impacted while Tanzania and northwestern Ethiopia rainfall is erratic and light

    • Some
      heavy rain may fall in Uganda early this week


New Zealand rainfall will be near to above average in North Island and western areas of South Island over the coming week

    • Temperatures
      will be seasonable with a slight cooler bias in the south

World Weather Inc. 


Ag Calendar

Oct. 27:

  • Virtual
    Palm Oil Conference, day 1
    WH Group

Oct. 28:

  • EIA
    U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
  • Virtual
    Palm Oil Conference, day 2

Oct. 29:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • Vietnam’s
    General Statistics Office releases commodity trade data for October
  • International
    Grains Council monthly report
    Indonesia, Malaysia

Oct. 30:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • U.S.
    agricultural prices paid, received, 3pm

Bloomberg and FI



Durable Goods Orders Sep P: 1.9% (est 0.5%; prevR 0.4%; prev 0.5%)

Durable Goods Orders Ex-Transportation Sep P: 0.8% (est 0.4%; prevR 1.0%; prev 0.6%)

Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex-Air Sep P: 1.0% (est 0.5%; prevR 2.1%; prev 1.9%)

Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex-Air Sep P: 0.3% (est 0.4%; prev 1.5%)




Export Developments

  • Taiwan’s
    MFIG bought 65,000 tons of US corn at $2.4738 / bushel over the May for Jan/Feb shipment. 

  • Iran’s
    SLAL seeks 200,000 tons of corn and 200,000 tons of barley on October 28 for Nov-Jan shipment. 




corn is seen in a $4.00-$4.40 range

could easily change the global balance sheet if they boost corn imports above 15 million tons in 2021. 



  • Soybeans
    ended 5.50 to 8.25 cents lower on US harvest pressure and light profit taking in soybean/corn spreads and lower soybean meal prices.  Soybean oil ended 23 to 35 points lower.  Palm was slightly lower overnight despite a 1 percent increase in China SBO and
    palm futures. 
  • CBOT
    crush margins crashed in the nearby positions from the bear spreading in soybean meal.  January crush started the day out to $1.3725 while March was at $1.1800.  After meal collapsed, January closed at $1.2750 and March at $1.1150. 
  • A
    second Covid wave for the US could hamper soybean product demand over the medium term, but it’s too early to tell.  Crush margins still look good so look for Midwestern crushers to continue to raise bids on soybeans as they compete with the barge market amid
    strong export demand out of the Gulf. 
  • US
    Gulf soybean oil firmed from the previous week to about 500 over from 475.  Domestic soybean meal basis firmed at selected locations on Monday and were mostly flat on Tuesday. 
  • We
    are hearing biodiesel margins are ok, but the industry is facing a shortage of deodorization capacity.
  • Indonesian
    government announced they plan to leave its CPO export at$3/ton for the Monday of November, unchanged from October. 
  • MPOB’s
    Chairman is hopeful palm prices stays above 3000 MYR / ton driven by India and China demand. 
  • Brazil
    will see widespread precipitation starting October 29 that could hit nearly all the nation’s major crop areas over an eight-day period.  Mato Grosso sure needs the rain as plantings were running at only 25 percent as of October 23, down from 65 percent average. 
  • We
    heard China bought 3-4 cargoes of US soybeans late Monday for shipment between November and January shipment. 



Export Developments

  • Results
    awaited:  Syria seeks 50,000 tons of soybean meal and 50,000 tons of corn on October 26 for delivery within four months of contract. 



soybeans are seen in a $10.60-$11.25 range

soybean meal is seen in a $370-$4.10 range

soybean oil is seen in a 33.50-35.00 range



  • Syria’s
    local wheat inventories bought from producers are running at only at 1.5 months of consumption.  Look for them to continue to tender and possibly accept aid. 
  • Paris
    (Matif) December wheat was down 1.50 at 205.25 euros.
  • The
    European Union granted export licenses for 267,000 tons of soft wheat exports, bringing cumulative 2020-21 soft wheat export commitments to 6.442 MMT, well down from 9.261 million tons committed at this time last year, a 30 percent decrease.  Imports are up
    5 percent from year ago at 0.930 million tons. 




  • 3
    participants: Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of feed barley on October 27, optional origin, for LH December through FH March shipment.
  • Syria
    seeks 200,000 tons of wheat from the Black Sea on October 28.
  • Jordan
    seeks 120,000 tons of wheat on October 28 for Feb/Mar shipment. 
  • Pakistan
    seeks 320,000 tons of wheat on November 3 for arrival by November 3 for arrival by the end of January. 



China’s rice crop in the northern growing areas look good.  Wholesale rice prices appreciated during the Covid crises but soon may decline after supplies increase. 

Syria seeks 37,400 tons of white rice on November 23.  White Chinese/Egyptian short grain white rice of third or fourth class was sought. Shipment is sought within three months of order confirmation. 

Results awaited:  Mauritius seeks 5,500 tons of white rice on October 20 for Dec 15-Mar 15, 2021 delivery.



December Chicago wheat is seen in a $6.10-6.60 range

December KC wheat is seen in a $5.50-$6.10 range

December MN wheat is seen in a $5.55-$6.20 range


Terry Reilly

Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds

Futures International
One Lincoln Center
18 W 140 Butterfield Rd.

Oakbrook Terrace, Il. 60181

W: 312.604.1366



Skype: fi.treilly


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