note I will be out of the office on Wednesday, October 28.
demand erosion fears from a second global covid outbreak wave setting in. Brazil corn prices hit a all time high and Anec downward revises Brazil’s October corn export projection. China corn buying may end up above 15 million tons in 2020-21.
and Crop Progress
IMPORTANT WEATHER OF THE DAY
Southern Region and Ukraine will receive rain from Friday through the first part of next week
rainfall will improve winter crop establishment, although it is rather late in the season
ice storm will impact the southwestern U.S. Plains today resulting in serious livestock stress, travel delays and power outages from western Texas through south-central Kansas
moisture will fall from western Texas and north-central Texas through Oklahoma to south-central Kansas into Thursday morning seriously bolstering soil moisture for improved winter wheat development
crop ratings in the southern Plains were terrible in USDA’s crop progress report, but improvement is expected following this week’s precipitation
will trend warmer than usual in the first half of November (if not most of the month) and that will translate into better crop establishment after recent rainfall
flooding is possible with moisture totals of 2.00 to 4.00 inches and locally more expected in the described region
Storm Zeta will bring a band of heavy rain to the area from southeastern Louisiana through the northwest half of Alabama to Tennessee and the southern Appalachian Mountain region late Wednesday and Thursday
totals of 2.00 to 6.00 inches will result in some flooding
potential damage is possible for some unharvested cotton in the region
will come ashore as a weakening hurricane with strong wind speeds in southeastern Louisiana, southeastern Mississippi and southwestern Alabama
property damage is expected
that has not been harvested in far southeastern Louisiana may be damaged by the storm
U.S. Midwest, northern Delta and Tennessee River Basin will receive significant rain and experience local flooding Wednesday and Thursday with much improved weather Friday into next week
weather in the central and southwestern Plains, lower Midwest, Delta and southeastern states will improve late this week through next week as drier weather evolves
temperatures in the Plains and western states will rise above average next week after this week’s bitter cold
will melt from most areas during the week
temperatures will occur in the eastern U.S. this weekend into early next week
of the extreme cold in the northern Plains is abating today and that in the central Plains will abate in the second half of this week
Pacific Northwest will be drier this week after receiving some rain and mountain snow during the weekend
chance for rain and snow may evolve next week
and the southwestern United States will remain dry for much of the coming ten days
Storm Zeta produced heavy rain over the Yucatan Peninsula overnight resulting in some flooding and wind damage
storm will move over the Gulf of Mexico and early Wednesday helping the system become a hurricane once again
Argentina will receive follow up showers today and Wednesday before dry weather occurs late this week and lasts through the first half of next week
rain opportunity will be Nov. 4-6 with a few showers in the far southwest Nov. 3
drier biased weather will be fantastic for aggressive spring and summer crop planting after recent rainfall and associated moisture boost
was great for long term wheat and early season corn and sunseed development
rainfall outlook for the next ten days has not changed much from that of Monday
will fall in most of the nation at one time or another, but rainfall will be least frequent and least significant in the interior south; including southwestern Sao Paulo, Parana and Santa Catarina
of the drier areas will be a concern for now since planting will advance aggressively off of the lighter rain that falls in those areas
of central and northern Minas Gerais, Espirito Santo and immediate neighboring areas will be a little too wet in time
crop planting and early development should advance well
Australia rainfall recently has raised some concern over winter wheat, barley and canola quality
weather is needed to protect crops until harvesting is complete
moisture was good for cotton, sorghum and other summer crops especially in unirrigated areas
will advance more aggressively after this week’s rain
wheat, barley and canola welcomed the rain in the south, but drier weather will soon be needed in the north to protect grain quality
Australia will get a mix of rain and sunshine over the next two weeks; rain frequency is not likely to be so great as to cause a serious change in crop quality, but the situation will be closely monitored
Nina conditions could present greater rainfall a little later this spring and early summer raising concern over crop conditions
Australia will continue to get very little rain for the next ten days, although totally dry weather is not expected
Africa received some rain in 25% of the summer crop region Monday
rain is needed throughout the nation to support better spring and summer crop planting and emergence conditions
erratic rainfall pattern is expected through the end of this week while temperatures are warm to hot
greater rain will evolve during the weekend and next week that may be more beneficial in raising topsoil moisture for better planting, emergence and establishment of corn, soybeans, cotton, peanuts, sorghum, sunseed and other crops
weather will be favorable for late season crop development and widespread harvesting over the next ten days
crop planting, emergence and establishment will advance well too
of China was dry Monday and more of the same will occur for a while in the coming week to ten days
few showers will occur periodically, but fieldwork will advance around them and the moisture will be good for winter crop planting, emergence and establishment
Molave was located 332 miles east southeast of Da Nang, Vietnam at 0900 GMT today moving westerly.
has reached its peak intensity with wind speeds to 126 mph near its center
is expected as the storm approaches Vietnam
will be near Da Nang, Vietnam once again and more torrential flooding is possible along with some damaging wind as the storm reaches the coast
and property will be damaged and the port of Da Nang and Hue, Vietnam will likely be shut down once again as the storm comes ashore
damage to the port is expected
month has been unusually stormy for the central Vietnam coast and damage to the ports of Da Nang and Hue has been significant
tropical cyclone will form east of the Philippines this week and pass across central parts of the nation Friday
heavy rain is likely and more flooding as well as possible wind damage
storm is expected to be weak relative to Molave which brought damage to the northern Visayan Islands earlier this week
of rain will continue impact parts of Southeast Asia that not being impacted by tropical cyclones over the next ten days to two weeks; most crop conditions will remain favorable
periods of precipitation will move across the European continent over the coming week resulting in a favorable mix of moisture and sunshine for winter crops
will advance around the precipitation
weekend and next week should trend drier
will be near to above average
CIS crop weather this week will bring erratic precipitation and warmer than usual temperatures
crops are turning dormant in the west and north which is normal
is unlikely to get meaningful moisture in the next ten days, although some sporadic showers may evolve late this week or during the weekend
and Quebec, Canada harvest delays will slowly improve later this week and into next week because of less precipitation
region needs to dry out
Prairies will experience some rain, freezing rain and snow early this week and then several days of drying are expected
Oscillation Index fell during the weekend down to +5.83 and the index may continue to drift a little lower before leveling off this week
precipitation will be scattered over far southern crop areas during the coming week
drying is expected for many other summer crop areas supporting crop maturation and harvest progress
America will be wetter than usual over the next ten days to two weeks keeping late season crop maturation and harvest progress slow, but the moisture is improving long term water supply.
flooding is possible
West-central Africa will experience erratic rain through the next ten days favoring coffee, cocoa, sugarcane, rice and other crops
rainfall is expected to be decreasing as time moves along which is normal for this time of year
areas will benefit from drier weather
East-central Africa rain will be erratic and light over the next couple of weeks, but most of Uganda and southwestern Kenya will be impacted while Tanzania and northwestern Ethiopia rainfall is erratic and light
heavy rain may fall in Uganda early this week
New Zealand rainfall will be near to above average in North Island and western areas of South Island over the coming week
will be seasonable with a slight cooler bias in the south
World Weather Inc.
Palm Oil Conference, day 1
U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
Palm Oil Conference, day 2
weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
of Rouen data on French grain exports
General Statistics Office releases commodity trade data for October
Grains Council monthly report
Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
weekly update on crop conditions
agricultural prices paid, received, 3pm
Bloomberg and FI
Durable Goods Orders Sep P: 1.9% (est 0.5%; prevR 0.4%; prev 0.5%)
Durable Goods Orders Ex-Transportation Sep P: 0.8% (est 0.4%; prevR 1.0%; prev 0.6%)
Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex-Air Sep P: 1.0% (est 0.5%; prevR 2.1%; prev 1.9%)
Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex-Air Sep P: 0.3% (est 0.4%; prev 1.5%)
futures hit a fresh 14-month high earlier on higher wheat futures, corn/soy spreading, and a large increase in South Korean buying, but fell to close 1.75 to 2.25 cents lower on light profit taking and US harvesting pressure.
sees China corn imports possibly doubling to 17 million tons during the 2020-21 crop year from a decline in production (6-8 million tons less than last year) and increase in feed demand. 2019-20 corn imports were 7.6 million tons. China booked nearly 10.6
million tons of corn from the US, and that does not include the unknown category (nearly 3.7 million tons outstanding sales). Cofco estimates for a 60-million-ton corn deficit in 2020-21, but that will be partially offset by an increase in other feedgrains
such as sorghum, barley, and feed wheat.
are waiting to see if Ukraine and Brazil will run out of corn by the end of 2020, which should shift good business to the US. Brazilian supplies are getting tight, although they have a good amount of corn left to export over the next couple of months.
agricultural think tank reported late on Tuesday that domestic corn prices hit a fresh record, rising above the previous 2007 record, by hitting 81.48 reais ($14.49) per sack, up 28 percent so far in October alone.
October corn exports could end up at 4.95 million tons (down from 5.5 million tone projected last week), according to Anec, while October soybean exports could reach 2.38 million tons (up from 2.32 previous week).
grain exports were 15 million tons do far this season, down 16.4 percent from same period year ago. 1.54 million tons of corn was sold compared with 3.59 million tons last year. Wheat exports fell to 10.1 million tons from 10.9 million. Wheat exports will
be capped at 17.5 million tons this season. 57% of the quota has been used. APK-Inform lowered its Ukraine 2020 corn harvest to 33.8 million tons from 34.8 million tons. The pegged the corn yield at 6.6 tons per hectare compared with 7.2 tons in 2019.
Ukraine harvested 84 percent of their 2020 grain crops, according to the Ministry of Economic Development. That includes 14.5 million tons of corn from an area of 3.07 million hectares (56%), 11.6 million tons of sunflower from 5.9 million hectares (92%),
2.2 million tons of soybeans from 1.08 million hectares (80%), 240,000 tons of millet from 147,700 hectares (98%) and- 99,000 tons of buckwheat from 76,500 hectares (97%) were harvested. (Reuters via Ukraine General Newswire).
Philippines see 2020 corn production at 8 million tons, up 4 percent from 7.7 million tons in 2019. 8 million tons is about 8 months of consumption.
reported a H5N8 bird flu case.
ASF: 3 new cases; 94 cases since September 10
US EPA is considering changes to gas pump labeling for E15 ethanol blend as the biofuel industry believes the current labels are discouraging use of the fuel.
Bloomberg poll looks for weekly US ethanol production to be up 12,000 at 925,000 barrels (900-942 range) from the previous week and stocks up to 56,000 barrels to 19.777 million.
Korea’s FLC bought 65,000 tons of corn, optional origin, at $264.41/ton c&f for arrival around February 15.
Korea’s NOFI bought 203,000 tons of corn, optional origin.
was bought at $262.41/ton fob for arrival around March 5.
at $253.40/ton fob for arrival around March 15.
boat was bought at $250.20/ton fob for arrival around April 5.
c&f for arrival in February.
Korea’s KFA passed on 69,000 tons of corn, optional origin. Lowest price was $271.73/ton c&f for arrival in February.
MFIG bought 65,000 tons of US corn at $2.4738 / bushel over the May for Jan/Feb shipment.
SLAL seeks 200,000 tons of corn and 200,000 tons of barley on October 28 for Nov-Jan shipment.
could easily change the global balance sheet if they boost corn imports above 15 million tons in 2021.