FI Evening Grain Comments 10/20/20

PDF Attached

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

 

 

TODAY’S
MOST IMPORTANT WEATHER

• Tropical
  Storm Epsilon was 765 miles southeast of Bermuda this morning and will turn toward the northwest later today while intensifying
• The
  storm will become a hurricane and should pass to the east of the Bermuda and then move away from North America without incident.
  
• Russia’s
  Southern Region received some rain Monday with a few showers lingering today, although data from the region will not be available until this afternoon
• Some
  improvement to topsoil moisture from Krasnodar to northwestern Kazakhstan should have resulted
• Eastern
  Ukraine and Kazakhstan will get a limited amount of rain for a while, although showers late this weekend will try to produce up to 0.25 inch of moisture in a few areas
• Northern
  parts of Russia’s key wheat production region will get periodic precipitation over the next couple of weeks; crop conditions are more favorable there than in the Southern Region
• Some
  light precipitation will fall in the west-central and southwestern U.S. Plains late this weekend and early next week
• Up
  to 0.25 inch of moisture is possible in parts of the region and that should help some crops establish a little better, but much more rain will be needed
• Argentina
  rainfall over the past two days has improved topsoil moisture for planting of corn, sunseed and eventually soybeans
• Monday’s
  rainfall varied from 0.20 to 0.85 inch with local totals of 1.00 to 2.75 inches from northeastern Buenos Aires and southern Entre Rios to central and northern Cordoba, southeastern Santiago del Estero and central and southern Santa Fe
• The
  rain will dissipate today, but some lingering showers will occur through Thursday
• Argentina
  will get follow up rainfall Friday through Sunday further improving crop and field conditions; another 0.50 to 2.00 inches will result in much of the nation
• Brazil
  rainfall will slowly be ramping up over the next two weeks in center west and center south crop areas improving soybean planting and establishment conditions
• Eastern
  Australia will get some good rainfall to improve dryland cotton, sorghum and other crop planting in the next two weeks
• Western
  Australia not likely to see much rain of significance during the next couple of weeks, although a few showers will occur briefly in the south
• Cold
  temperatures in the northern U.S. Plains and Canada’s Prairies this week will support waves of accumulating snow, but winter crops in Montana may be pushed into dormancy and not all planting and establishment was complete
• Wheat
  planting in Montana was only 77% done and only 57% emerged as of Sunday
• Tropical
  Storm Saudel formed near Luzon Island, Philippines Monday and will produce torrential rain over Luzon today
• The
  storm will move to northern Vietnam this weekend
• Flooding
  is expected in Luzon today
• Some
  flooding will resume along the upper central coast of Vietnam during the weekend where torrential rainfall has already occurred this month
• U.S.
  Midwest will experience periods of rain and some snow over the next week to ten days resulting in slower harvest progress, but some benefit to winter wheat in the lower Midwest where it has been drier than usual in recent weeks
• West
  Texas rainfall will be limited, but some is expected late this weekend and early next week to briefly slow harvesting without a serious impact on quality
• Northern
  U.S. Plains and upper Midwest will deal with a few more waves of snow during the coming week causing travel delays and inducing some livestock stress
• Snowfall
  of 2 to 6 inches and local totals to 9 inches may occur in the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota today and tonight with some of that moving to the upper Great Lakes region
• Snowfall
  of 3 to 10 inches may impact the northern Plains late Wednesday into Thursday
• One
  more snow event of 2 to 6 inches may impact areas from southeastern Montana and Wyoming to Nebraska, northeastern Colorado and western Iowa this weekend with some of that snow shifting south to the Texas Panhandle, Oklahoma and Kansas briefly Sunday into Monday
• India
  weather will be improving with less rain in west-central crop areas and most of the monsoonal precipitation will withdraw to the south as time moves along over the next two weeks
• This
  will improve summer crop maturation and harvest conditions
• Winter
  crop planting will accelerate as well
• Australia’s
  outlook favors rain in the east not the west
• Western
  Australia will receive some rain near the lower west coast and in southern coastal areas while interior crop areas get little to no rain
• Other
  showers will occur from South Australia to Victoria
• Rain
  will fall periodically from Queensland into northeastern New South Wales over the next ten days with this weekend and next week wettest
• Enough
  rain is expected to bolster soil moisture for improved spring and summer crop planting, emergence and establishment
• China
  will experience a very good mix of weather over the next two weeks with net drying occurring more often than rain which will support summer crop maturation and harvesting as well as winter wheat and rapeseed planting
  
• Sufficient
  moisture will be present to support planting, emergence and establishment of winter crops
• South
  Africa weather will generate some scattered showers in the central and east over the next week to ten days improving spring planting conditions
• U.S.
  southeastern states will experience a mix of weather over the next couple of weeks slowing fieldwork at times, but some drier days will be around as well
• U.S.
  Delta weather will include a mix of rain and sunshine with seasonable temperatures causing some restricted precipitation
• A
  tropical disturbance is expected in the Caribbean Sea this week will be closely monitored but it will likely impact the Yucatan Peninsula without much incidence on key crop areas
  
• Southern
  Oscillation Index fell during the weekend down to +8.59 and the index will begin to level off over the next few days with some additional falling today and Wednesday
• Europe
  weather will be drier biased this week in the eastern half of the continent, including Ukraine
• Western
  Europe will trend wetter in the second half of this week after a relatively dry start to the week
• Western
  Europe will continue wettest next week while precipitation in eastern Europe only slightly increases
• Temperatures
  will be near to slightly warmer than usual
• Fieldwork
  will improve in central and eastern Europe this week as drier weather dominates the region
• Kazakhstan
  remains too dry and little to no relief is expected for two weeks
• Western
  and northern Russia and parts of Belarus and the Baltic States will get most of this week’s precipitation outside of the band of rain noted above in Russia’s Southern Region that will end today
• Winter
  crops are well established in western and northern Russia, Belarus, western Ukraine and Baltic States, but eastern Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Russia’s Southern Region crops are not well established and may turn dormant will poor root and tiller systems raising
  the risk of winterkill in times of harsh winter weather conditions
• Southeastern
  Canada and the U.S. Great Lakes region will continue to experience frequent rainfall this week causing additional delay to farming activity
• Recent
  precipitation frequency has been too high for much fieldwork and this trend will linger for a while longer.
  
• Southeast
  Asia rainfall over the next two weeks will be erratic, but all areas will be impacted multiple times supporting most crop needs; some flood potentials will gradually rise in localized areas
• Mexico
  precipitation will be scattered over far southern crop areas during the coming week Net drying is expected for many other summer crop areas supporting crop maturation and harvest progress
• Central
  America will be sufficiently wet over the next ten days to two weeks to keep late season crop maturation and harvest progress slow, but the moisture is improving long term water supply.
  

·        
West-central Africa will experience periodic rain through the next ten days favoring coffee, cocoa, sugarcane, rice and other crops

• Daily
  rainfall is expected to be decreasing as time moves along which is normal for this time of year
• Cotton
  areas will benefit from drier weather

·        
East-central Africa rain will be erratic and light over the next couple of weeks, but most of Uganda and southwestern Kenya will be impacted while Tanzania and Ethiopia rainfall is erratic and light

• Some
  heavy rain may fall in Uganda

·        
New Zealand rainfall is expected to increase in North Island and western parts of South Island this week and then increase more broadly across the nation next week

• Temperatures
  will be seasonable with a slight cooler bias in the south

Source: 
World Weather Inc. 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Tuesday,
Oct. 20:

• Malaysia
  Oct. 1-20 palm oil export data
• Virtual
  international palm oil sustainability conference, Q&A Session
• USDA
  total milk production, 3pm
• New
  Zealand global dairy trade auction

Wednesday,
Oct. 21:

• EIA
  U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am

Thursday,
Oct. 22:

• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• USDA
  red meat production, 3pm
• U.S.
  cold storage data – pork, beef, poultry

Friday,
Oct. 23:

• China
  customs publishes trade data on imports of corn, wheat, sugar and cotton
• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• Unica
  data on Brazil’s cane crush, sugar production (tentative)
• U.S.
  cattle on feed, poultry slaughter, 3pm
• HOLIDAY:
  Thailand

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

Macros

US
Senate Minority Leader Schumer: Will Move For Vote On Democrats’ Virus Relief Plan

US
House Speaker Pelosi: Democrats Are Still Fighting For Tax Credits

 

Corn.

• Corn
  futures traded higher on a lower USD, higher soybeans and steady US export demand.  US harvest pressure and soybean/corn spreading limited gains. 
  
• 5000
  March 420/450 call spreads were bought from 8 1/4 to 8 7/8
• Argentina
  dryness and slower than normal soybean planting pace in Brazil potentially affecting second crop corn plantings are supporting US corn futures. 
  
• After
  the close on Tuesday Conab said they don’t see significant changes in the corn import forecast for Brazil through January. 
  
• Germany
  ASF: 1 new case; 71 cases since September 10 
• A
  Bloomberg poll looks for weekly US ethanol production to be up 7,000 at 944,000 barrels (930-960 range) from the previous week and stocks up to 224,000 barrels to 20.232 million.
  

 

Corn
Export Developments

• Iran
  opened a new tender for 200,000 tons of barley, set to close October 21. 

 

 

Updated
10/15/20

December
corn is seen in a $3.90-$4.20 range

China
could easily change the global balance sheet if they boost corn imports above 15 million tons in 2021. 

 

Soybeans

• The
  soybean complex was higher throughout most of the day.  Soybean oil gained on soybean meal and the CBOT crush slipped after briefly peaking overnight to a fresh high basis the January.  USDA announced 132k soybeans to unknown. Traders will be watching the
  bull spreads as Brazil could come in anytime soon and buy US soybeans.  So far, we are getting a 50/50 feedback this will happen, or above 200,000 ton amount we have been asking around.  Some noted it’s not economical to import US soybeans but we could see
  the occasional one off. 
• After
  the CBOT close on Tuesday Conab said they do not expect to import large quantities of soybeans in the short term after the suspension of import tariffs.  They also don’t see a significant impact on soybean production from delays in soybean plantings. 
  
• There
  was a rumor Brazil bought US soybeans, or 2 cargoes were switched internally by a company from US to Brazil.  Brazil announced that the tariff free imports outside Mercosur will be extended to January 15 for soybeans and March until corn. 
  
• We
  heard one China private crusher booked at least one Nov/Dec soybean shipment out of the Gulf and two January shipments out of the PNW.  There was a March soybean shipment that traded hands but unclear with origin. 
  

• Decatur,
  IL, corn basis was up 4 cents to option December and soybeans up 10 cents to 15 over November. 
  
• US
  soybean harvest progress fell short of trade expectations by 4 points to 75 percent so some of the trade found this to be slightly bullish. 
  

• Soybean
  oil snapped a two-day losing streak by trading and ending sharply higher.  Malaysian palm oil futures were up just over 3 percent.  Cash palm rose $17.00/ton.  AmSpec palm exports for the October 1-20 period was 1.085 million tons versus 1.040 million tons
  same period in September.  ITS reported a 4 percent increase to 1.077 million tons from 1.035 million previous period last month. 
  

 

Oilseeds
Export Developments

• Under
  the 24-hour announcement system, private porters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 132,000 tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2020-21 marketing year. 
  
• Syria
  seeks 50,000 tons of soybean meal and 50,000 tons of corn on October 26 for delivery within four months of contract. 
  

 

Second
month rolling soybean oil share

Source:
Reuters and FI

 

Second
month rolling weekly soybean crush

Source:
Reuters and FI

 

Updated
10/20/20

November
soybeans are seen in a $10.45-$10.90 range

December
soybean meal is seen in a $350-$3.90 range

December
soybean oil is seen in a 32.70-34.00 range

 

Wheat

• US
  wheat traded higher on a lower USD, high global cash prices and strong global export developments. 
  

• Paris
  (Matif) December wheat was down 0.50 at 211.25 euros on profit taking and uncertainty Algeria was interested on French wheat with their 50,000-ton import tender.
  
• US
  wheat
  futures prices can easily continue to rally if the funds add to long positions.  Historical CFTC Commitment of Traders data suggests money managers can easily add another net 20,000 contracts to their long position.  Chicago wheat could trade up into the $6.60-$6.75
  area, then rally to $7.00 if the US southern Great Plains see restricted precipitation through early November, leading to a very poor initial US winter wheat rating expected to be issued by USDA next week.
  
• Selected
  US individual state crop ratings yesterday showed the following:
• KS
  31 good and excellent
• NE
  59 good and excellent

Backing
up to KS, the 31 percent is the lowest level for year through at least 1987 for this time of year (week 41 through week 43 comparison).   Comparable crop years for this time of year include 41 percent in week 43 of 2015 (2016-17 crop year), week 43 in 2012
(2013-14 crop year), and week 42 in 2020 (2011-12 crop year).  

• Somebody
  is apparently bullish.  WH 950c traded @ 1.125 200x. This could be part of a call spread.  
  

• APK-Inform
  reported Ukraine wheat export prices hit a 21-month high of $255/ton fob. 
  
• SovEcon
  raised their Russian wheat crop estimate to 84.4 million tons from 83.3 million tons, citing better yields in Siberia, for the 2020-21 crop year. 
  
• The
  USDA Attaché sees Australia 2020-21 wheat crop at 28 million tons, 500,000 below the official USDA forecast. 
  

 

Latest
is week 42 (10/18) KS 2020 rating for 2021-22 crop year.  Source: USDA and FI

 

Export
Developments.

• South
  Korea’s MFG bought 130,000 tons of feed wheat from the US at $266.84/ton and $268.92/ton for LH March and April shipment. 
  
• Thailand
  seeks 192,000 tons of feed wheat and 120,000 tons of feed barley, optional origin, for between Dec 2020 and March 2021 shipment. 
  
• Japan
  seeks 80,526 tons of food wheat later this week including 29,217 tons from the US and 51,309 tons from Canada.  
• Jordan
  passed on 120,000 tons of barley. They saw 2 offers. 
• Sudan
  seeks 1 million tons of wheat through US assistance.  Algeria bought about 30,000 tons of corn at about $239/ton c&f from EU or Black Sea region for shipment by November 20. 
  

• Algeria
  seeks 50,000 tons of milling wheat on October 21, valid until October 22 for November and/or December shipment, depending on origin. 
  

• Jordan
  issued a new tender for 120,000 tons of wheat set to close October 21. 
• Japan
  seeks 80,000 tons of feed wheat and 100,000 tons of feed barley on October 21 for arrival by February 25. 
  
• Turkey
  seeks 175,000 tons of wheat on October 22 for shipment between November 9 and November 24. 
  

 

Rice/Other

• Egypt
  said they have more than 1 million tons of sugar stocks to last over four months. 
  

·        
Mauritius seeks 5,500 tons of white rice on October 20 for Dec 15-Mar 15, 2021 delivery.

 

Paris
wheat vs. KC wheat – rolling daily

Source:
Reuters and FI

 

Updated
10/20/20

December Chicago wheat is seen in a $6.10-6.60 range

December KC wheat is seen in a $5.50-$6.10 range

December MN wheat is seen in a $5.55-$6.20 range