PDF Attached includes several various charts and tables

 

USDA
– private exporters reported sales of:

-396,000
metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2021/2022 marketing year

-326,750
metric tons of soybeans received during the reporting period for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2021/2022 marketing year

-132,000
metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2021/2022 marketing year

 

Higher
trade across the board on technical buying and thoughts that the US corn and soybean exports will improve.  The USD was near unchanged and WTI higher.  NOPA published a bearish September US crush number, but the trade ignored it, in my opinion. 

 

 

Weather

7-day

Map

Description automatically generated

 

World
Weather Inc.

MOST
IMPORTANT WEATHER AROUND THE WORLD

  • A
    slow-moving tropical disturbance is expected to bring excessive rain to the coast of central Vietnam through the weekend and into early next week
    • Rainfall
      of 4.00 to more than 15.00 inches may result in some serious coastal flooding
      • It
        would not be surprising to see some amounts getting to 20.00 inches north of Quang Ngai to Vinh
    • The
      excessive rain is not likely to move inland very far and it should not reach Laos, Cambodia or Thailand, although significant rain will fall in those areas as well
    • Horrific
      flooding and property damage is expected 
  • Soil
    moisture is decreasing in the middle and lower Volga River Basin, but most of the key winter crop areas in this region should have had enough moisture to establish relatively well
    • However,
      air temperatures during late September and early October were not as warm as crops would have liked and crops may not be as established as they ought to be at this time of year especially since the region was dry in the early part of the planting season
    • Soil
      temperatures are cooling enough that some crops are becoming semi-dormant limiting the potential for additional development and precipitation will be lighter than usual for the next ten days and perhaps longer
  • Northern
    China will continue to be dry biased over the next ten days inducing improvements to crop maturation and harvest progress after too much rain fell in recent weeks
  • East-central
    China will receive rain through Saturday and then get more precipitation next week
    • The
      region may trend a little too wet over time slowing winter crop planting and establishment and delaying some of the region’s summer crop harvest
      • Recent
        weather has been favorable for fieldwork and the disruption may not have a big impact, but it will be worth watching for a while
    • A
      few minor cotton areas could experience some quality concerns
  • Northeastern
    Xinjiang, China weather has finally turned drier
    • Frequent
      precipitation in recent weeks and cold temperatures has hurt the quality of unharvested cotton
    • Conditions
      will remain favorable for good drying conditions and harvest progress for the next full week
  • Western
    and central Xinjiang cotton maturation and harvest weather has been good in recent weeks with little change likely
  • Central
    and northeastern India will turn wetter than desired this weekend into early next week causing some delay to summer crop harvesting
    • The
      moisture will be good for future wheat planting, emergence and establishment
    • Northern
      Uttar Pradesh and a part of Nepal may get too much rain resulting in some flooding
    • The
      area will dry down again next week
  • Australia
    will experience nearly ideal conditions for reproducing winter wheat, barley and canola during the next ten days with alternating periods of rain and sunshine
    • Some
      greater rain will be needed in South Australia
    • Unirrigated
      summer sorghum and cotton areas in central Queensland need rain, but not much is expected for a while
    • Sugarcane
      areas along the lower Queensland coast will get frequent rain improving crop conditions
  • Argentina
    weather this week was good for winter crop development and helped improve planting conditions for early corn and sunseed
    • The
      nation will be drying down over the coming week and crop development may eventually slow once again because firming soil, but for now the situation is much improved
  • Brazil
    weather will be ideal for fieldwork and early season crop development during the next two weeks
    • All
      areas will get rain at one time or another
    • A
      welcome respite from rain is expected in southern Brazil next week that will favor some drier topsoil and faster planting progress
    • A
      boost in shower activity in center west, northern center south and northeastern Brazil will be ideal for accelerating the planting and emergence of soybeans and early corn
    • Sugarcane,
      coffee and citrus crop development is already accelerating with flowering of coffee and citrus to continue for a while as sugarcane develops more aggressively
  • Excessive
    rain is expected in southern Myanmar rice and sugarcane areas this weekend with 5.00 to 12.00 inches resulting in some flooding
    • A
      little rice damage is possible
  • A
    small tropical cyclone may evolve in the northern Bay of Bengal Sunday and will induce heavy rainfall in long the middle and upper coast of Myanmar resulting in some additional flooding
    • Some
      areas in southeastern Bangladesh will also be impacted by this storm
    • Flooding
      could become serious near the Bangladesh/Myanmar coastal border where 10.00 to 20.00 inches of rain might occur Sunday into Wednesday
  • Southeastern
    Europe’s rainy weather pattern of late will end this weekend
    • The
      western and southern Balkan Countries were suffering from drought like conditions previously and now are too wet
      • Some
        flooding has likely occurred
      • Delays
        to summer crop harvesting have been prolonged and will last into next week
      • The
        moisture will eventually be good for some winter crop planting, but a few areas may have to replant
  • Central
    parts of Europe will experience net drying weather over the coming week which will be good for winter crop planting and summer crop harvesting
  • U.S.
    Northern Plains and eastern parts of Canada’s Prairies received significant moisture this week and the northern Plains started to dry down Thursday
    • Moisture
      over the past week in the Dakotas and eastern Montana was a boon for winter wheat establishment. Fieldwork of all kinds has been delayed and drier weather expected through the coming week will be good for getting summer crop harvesting back on track.
    • Little
      to no rain and warming is expected through late next week except for South Dakota and southern Minnesota where some rain showers will occur briefly during mid-week next week
  • Central
    Montana, southern and eastern Alberta, Canada and central through western Saskatchewan are still too dry and have a huge need for significant precipitation
    • These
      areas will remain dry biased for an extended period of time
    • Winter
      wheat is not establishing well in central Montana or some neighboring areas in Canada.
  • U.S.
    hard red winter wheat areas will experience less precipitation over the next week to ten days
    • Recent
      rain has improved planting and emergence conditions, especially in Oklahoma and western Kansas
    • Dryness
      is still an issue from the Texas Panhandle into Colorado and a few western most counties in Kansas
  • U.S.
    Delta will get additional rain today while overnight precipitation impacts the southeastern states into Saturday
    • Resulting
      rainfall should be light and the impact on harvesting should not be great
    • Another
      bout of rain is expected late next week, but good drying conditions will occur between the events
    • No
      serious declines in unharvested crop quality is expected, although the Delta and southeastern states need a prolonged period of dry weather to protect cotton fiber quality and to ensure faster harvesting
  • Warming
    will return to much of the central and western United States this weekend into next week
  • West
    Texas cotton, corn, peanut and sorghum areas will receive rain briefly during mid- to late week next week and again one week later
    • Cool
      temperatures are expected this weekend with lows slipping into the middle and upper 30s Saturday
      • No
        freeze is expected, but some patches of soft frost are possible
        • A
          few areas in the northwestern most counties of West Texas cotton country will experience temperatures near freezing Saturday.
    • Warming
      is expected again late this weekend into next week
    • Rain
      is not expected to be a huge problem for West Texas, although drier weather is preferred.
  • Texas
    Blacklands will dry down this weekend and early next week after this week’s heavy rainfall delayed farming activity
    • More
      rain may occur late next week
  • California
    and the interior Pacific Northwest and a part of the far northwestern U.S. Plains will continue dry for the next ten days
  • U.S.
    Midwest weather will improve after this week’s rain with better harvest conditions expected
  • Mexico
    rainfall will be erratic over the next week with pockets of the nation a little wetter biased while other areas are a little drier biased
  • Central
    Asia cotton and other crop harvesting will advance swiftly as dry and warm conditions prevail
  • Philippines,
    Indonesia and Malaysia rainfall is expected to occur favorably over the next week to ten days
  • Seasonably
    dry biased weather will continue in North Africa for a while
  • Central
    Africa will continue to experience periodic rainfall during the next ten days maintaining good coffee, cocoa, sugarcane, rice, cotton and other crop conditions
    • Drier
      weather will soon be needed in some cotton areas
  • South
    Africa rainfall will be restricted for a while, but next week will be wetter
    • Many
      areas away from the coast will be left dry or experience net drying conditions until next week when a boost in rainfall is expected in key summer crop areas
      • Most
        summer crop areas will receive frequent rainfall next week and into the following weekend
      • Winter
        crops will develop favorably following previous rainfall and some early spring planting will be starting soon if it has not already begun
  • Today’s
    Southern Oscillational Index was +10.32 and it was expected to move higher during the coming week
  • New
    Zealand weather is expected to be a little wetter and cooler biased this week and then drier and warmer next week
  • Central
    America rainfall will be below average this week except in Costa Rica, Panama and El Salvador where rainfall will be near to above normal

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Friday,
Oct. 15:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of trader’s report (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of trader’s weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • U.S.
    monthly data on green coffee stockpiles
  • Malaysia
    Oct. 1-15 palm oil exports
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • HOLIDAY:
    India

Monday,
Oct. 18:

  • USDA
    export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
  • U.S.
    crop conditions – corn and cotton; soybeans harvested; winter wheat planted, 4pm
  • China’s
    second batch of trade data, including corn, wheat, sugar, pork imports
  • China
    3Q pork output and inventories
  • GrainCom
    conference, Geneva, day 1
  • Ivory
    Coast cocoa arrivals

Tuesday,
Oct. 19:

  • EU
    weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
  • New
    Zealand global dairy trade auction
  • S&P
    Global Platts European Sugar Virtual Conference, day 1