PDF Attached includes updated US soybean complex S&D’s.  Crop progress headlines are below USDA recap, tables out later this week. 

 

Please
note I will be out the balance of the week, attending the AFOA conference in Nashville. 

 

CBOT
soybean complex, corn and oats ended lower.  Wheat was higher.  Our bias is for soybeans and corn to continue to trend lower and wheat to trade two-sided over the short term. 

 

USDA
released their October S&D and crop production reports 

 

Reaction:
 
Bearish
corn and soybeans, neutral to slightly friendly wheat.  USDA’s 2021-22 US soybean oil stocks were revised up a large 320 million pounds, and soybean oil prices naturally traded sharply lower.  Soybean meal stocks were cut 100,000 short tons, triggering meal/oil
spreading.  We lowered our trading range projections for the soybean complex. 

 

USDA
NASS executive summary

https://www.nass.usda.gov/Newsroom/Executive_Briefings/index.php

USDA
OCE Secretary’s Briefing

https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity-markets/wasde/secretary-briefing

 

following
the release of the report soybean prices dropped and corn followed.  Wheat traded two-sided post USDA report and then trended higher in part to wheat/soybean and wheat/corn spreading.  2021 US soybean production was upward revised 74 million bushels after
the USDA raised the US yield by 0.9 bu/ac to 51.5, 0.4 bu/ac above an average trade guess.  There were no changes to the US harvested area for soybeans and corn.  USDA increased the 2021-22 US soybean carryout to 320 million bushels, 20 million above the trade
average.  USDA made some adjustments to their old crop balance sheet, including the 81 million bushels increase in ending stocks per September 1 stocks (2020 upward revision to production).  For this crop year, USDA increased soybean production by 74 million
bushels.  They lowered imports by 10 million.  For US crush, USDA increased it by 10 million bushels, and increased residual by 1 million.  We still think USDA is too low on 2021-22 US crush.  What was interesting to see was USDA’s adjustments to old-crop
soybean oil.  They decided to lower food use by 175 million pounds and left unchanged soybean oil for biodiesel. We thought they would adjust lower SBO for biofuel.  They took SBO 2020-21 imports up 30 million pounds and raised the end of October ending stocks
by 205 million pounds to 2.063 billion, well above the 1.2-1.3 billion the trade was looking for about six months ago.  New-crop SBO production was raised 115 million pounds (higher crush) to 25.535 billion, above 24.980 billion produced in 2020-21.  USDA
cut old-crop soybean meal ending stocks by 50,000 short tons to 400,000 (we were looking for an upward revision).  They lowered old-crop exports by 200,000, raised domestic use by 175,000, took production down 55,000, and lowered imports by 20,000 short tons. 
For new-crop USDA raised production by 250,000 short tons and raised domestic use by 300,000 short tons, resulting in a 400,000 short ton carryout, 100,000 less than the previous month.  World soybean production was revised higher by 0.7 million tons to 385.1
million, 5.4% above the previous year.  World ending stocks were reported at 104.6 million tons, 3.9 million above an average trade guess, 5.7 million above the previous month and 5.5% above 2020-21. 

 

 

USDA
lifted the 2021 US corn yield by 0.2 bu/ac to 176.5 bushels per acre.  The trade was looking for a slight decrease.  As a result, US corn production increased 23 million bushels to 15.019 billion bushels.  USDA increased the 2020-21 US corn carryout by 92
million bushels to 1.500 billion, 68 million above an average trade guess and 21 percent above the 2020-21 crop year. USDA made several adjustments to the old-crop US corn balance sheet, as expected per September 1 grain stocks.  For new-crop, USDA lowered
feed use by 50 million bushels to 5.650 billion, above 5.597 billion in 2020-21.  USDA increased corn exports by 25 million to 2.50 billion for 2021-22, below 2.753 billion in 2020-21.  The US stocks to use for corn is now projected at 12.2%, up from 11.4%
previous month and above 10.2% for 2020-21.  World corn production was raised 0.5 million tons from the previous month and stocks were lifted 4.1 million tons to 301.7 million, a 4 percent increase from previous season. USDA took 2020-21 corn imports up 2
million tons to 28 million tons, resulting in a boost to the China corn carryout by a like amount. 

 

 

After
adjusting for a lower all-wheat crop production per Small Grains Summary, USDA cut the 2021-22 US stocks by 35 million bushels to 580 million, about in line with trade expectations, and down 31 percent from last season.  USDA lowered its outlook for HRW wheat
stocks by 36 million bushels and SRW by 5 million, and slightly raised the other three classes of wheat.  USDA’s 51-million-bushel reduction to 2021-22 all-wheat production forced them to trim the feed use by 25 million bushels.  They also lowered imports
by 10 million, possibly by recognizing a short Canadian wheat crop (was taken down 2MMT this month).  USDA lowered world wheat production by 4.4 million tons and world ending stocks by 6.0 million tons (3.6 million more than what the trade was looking for). 

 

 

US
CORN – 60 PCT CONDITION GOOD/EXCELLENT VS 59 PCT WK AGO (61 PCT YR AGO) -USDA

US
COTTON – 64 PCT CONDITION GOOD/EXCELLENT VS 62 PCT WK AGO (40 PCT YR AGO) -USDA

US
SOYBEAN – 59 PCT CONDITION GOOD/EXCELLENT VS 58 PCT WK AGO (63 PCT YR AGO) -USDA

US
WINTER WHEAT – 60 PCT PLANTED VS 47 PCT WK AGO (60 PCT 5-YR AVG) -USDA

US
WINTER WHEAT – 31 PCT EMERGED VS 19 PCT WK AGO (35 PCT 5-YR AVG) -USDA

US
SOYBEANS – 49 PCT HARVESTED VS 34 PCT WK AGO (40 PCT 5-YR AVG) -USDA

US
CORN – 41 PCT HARVESTED VS 29 PCT WK AGO (31 PCT 5-YR AVG) -USDA

US
COTTON – 20 PCT HARVESTED VS 13 PCT WK AGO (26 PCT 5-YR AVG) -USDA

US
RICE – 81 PCT HARVESTED VS 73 PCT WK AGO (85 PCT 5-YR AVG) -USDA

US
SOYBEANS – 91 PCT DROPPING LEAVES VS 86 PCT WK AGO (89 PCT 5-YR AVG) -USDA

US
CORN – 94 PCT MATURE VS 88 PCT WK AGO (86 PCT 5-YR AVG) -USDA

US
COTTON – 78 PCT BOLLS OPENING VS 70 PCT WK AGO (82 PCT 5-YR AVG) -USDA

 

Weather

7-day

Map

Description automatically generated

 

World
Weather Inc.

MOST
IMPORTANT WEATHER AROUND THE WORLD

  • Brazil
    will see a good distribution of rain over the next ten days to two weeks
    • Southern
      parts of the nation will dry down next week and that will be good for wheat maturation and harvesting and good for corn and soybean planting progress after recent rain
  • Most
    of Brazil’s coffee, citrus and sugar crops are expected to benefit greatly from the continuation of periodic rain over the next week
    • Follow
      up rain will be needed later this month, but the drier weather next week will be good as well
  • Argentina’s
    rain expected through Thursday will be welcome and good for all crops, but not likely enough to fix long term moisture deficits and greater rain will be needed later this month to protect production potential and to support planting progress
  • U.S.
    northern Plains and Canada’s Prairies will get some significant moisture later today through Thursday
    • The
      Dakotas, eastern Montana and Minnesota will be wettest through Wednesday with 0.40 to 1.50 inches of moisture expected and local totals over 2.00 inches in western most parts of the Dakotas
      • Snow
        accumulation in the westernmost Dakotas and eastern most Montana will range from 4 to 10 inches with a few greater amounts in a narrow band
        • Livestock
          stress and some travel disruption is expected
    • Canada’s
      eastern Prairies will be wettest late Wednesday and Thursday at which time 0.40 to 1.50 inches of moisture will result
      • Manitoba
        and southeastern Saskatchewan will be wettest
      • Snow
        accumulations in Saskatchewan will range from 1 to 4 inches with a few amounts as great as 6 inches
        • The
          snow will melt quickly
  • Colder
    air will settle south and east across the Great Plains late this week and into the weekend
    • Frost
      and freezes will be most significant in the northwestern Plains where a few upper teens are expected while most readings will be in the 20s and lower 30s
    • Low
      temperatures in West Texas will slip to the middle and upper 30s this weekend with a patch or two of soft frost possible in the far northwestern most counties of cotton country
      • The
        impact of frost would be minimal if it occurs
  • A
    reinforcing shot of cold air comes into the Midwest early to mid-week next week chilling down a part of the region and generating a few showers of light rainfall as it arrives
  • Excellent
    drying conditions are expected in many U.S. crop areas during the weekend and next week
    • The
      exception will be in the southwestern Plains where some upslope precipitation might occur briefly during mid-week
  • Warming
    will return to much of the central and western United States this weekend into next week
  • Other
    than brief showers expected in the U.S. Delta and southeastern states this weekend the region should be relatively dry until late next week with showers are possible near the Gulf of Mexico coast.
  • California
    and the interior Pacific Northwest and a part of the far northwestern U.S. Plains will continue dry for the next ten days
  • Canada’s
    Prairies from southern and eastern Alberta into western and some central Saskatchewan locations will remain quite dry for the next couple of weeks
  • Europe
    weather will remain tranquil into the weekend except in the southern Balkan Countries where periods of rain are expected
    • The
      moisture will be great for easing long term dryness and supporting winter crop planting
    • Some
      harvest delay is expected
  • Western
    CIS crop areas will experience a restricted amount of rain during the balance of this week and into the weekend, but precipitation will slowly increase next week
    • Totally
      dry weather is not expected through the weekend with at least a little precipitation expected
  • Central
    Asia cotton and other crop harvesting will advance swiftly as dry and warm conditions prevail
  • Northeastern
    Xinjiang, China will continue wet and cool today and Wednesday and then drier weather is expected and it should last into next week greatly improving harvest progress after an extended period of wet and cold weather
  • Western
    Xinjiang cotton harvest progress will continue to advance favorably
  • India
    crop weather will be good through the weekend with rain in the south and east leaving the central and north dry
    • Rain
      is expected in Uttar Pradesh next week, but it should not get into Punjab or Haryana which will help protect unharvested cotton and other crops in that area
    • Northwestern
      and north-central India will continue dry for the next couple of weeks supporting fieldwork and crop development
  • China’s
    Northeastern Provinces and North China Plain will experience net drying conditions for a while and that will be good for drying out crops after a wet early autumn
    • Harvesting
      may be a little behind schedule because of the frequent precipitation and wet field conditions
    • Much
      of the Yellow River Basin will also experience net drying
  • East-central
    China will be wettest beginning late this week and lasting through much of next week possibly bringing too much moisture into summer crop harvest areas resulting in field working delays
    • Some
      concern over crop quality might evolve if the rain prevails too long
  • Southern
    and easternmost Australia will receive rain during the next week to ten days supporting crop development and some spring planting in eastern Queensland, but grater rain is needed in western Queensland crop areas due to ongoing drought
  • Tropical
    Storm Kompasu was located 276 miles southeast of Hong Kong near 18.8 north, 116.6 east moving westerly at 17 mph and producing maximum sustained wind speeds of 63 mph
    • Kompasu
      will move westerly today and Wednesday reaching Hainan, China Wednesday, and northern Vietnam by the end of this week
    • Strong
      wind and heavy rain will accompany the storm with Hainan, China most impacted along with a part of northern Vietnam possibly
      • Rice
        and sugarcane may be impacted due to flooding rainfall
  • Tropical
    Storm Namtheun was located far out into the western Pacific Ocean over open water and poses no threat to eastern Asia
    • The
      storm will pass well to the east of Japan this weekend and early next week
  • Hurricane
    Pamela was located 280 miles southwest of Mazatlán, Mexico at 0700 CDT today, but was expected to turn to the northeast soon and reach land in southern Sinaloa Wednesday
    • Moisture
      from the storm will stream to the northeast across central Mexico and into a part of central Texas
      • The
        storm will move across Mexico and diminish to tropical storm status relatively quickly after moving inland, but may be a dissipating depression near the Texas border Thursday
      • Moisture
        will not only stream across Texas from this storm, but into a parts of the Midwest, as well
    • Crop
      damage is possible near the coast, but conditions will improve with distance away from the coast
      • Corn,
        sorghum, some dry beans, and a few other crops will be impacted, but losses are expected to be low
  • Southeast
    Asia rainfall is expected to be greatest from the northern Philippines through Hainan, China and into much of Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, and Thailand during the next week to ten days
    • Rain
      will also fall in Indonesia and Malaysia, although it will be a little more erratic and light
  • Central
    Africa will continue to experience periodic rainfall during the next ten days maintaining good coffee, cocoa, sugarcane, rice, cotton, and other crop conditions
    • Drier
      weather will soon be needed in some cotton areas
  • North
    Africa is not likely to see much rain for a while, but that is not unusual for this time of year
  • South
    Africa rainfall will be restricted for a while, but totally dry weather is not expected
    • Many
      areas away from the coast will be left dry or experience net drying conditions
      • Winter
        crops will develop favorably following previous rainfall and some early spring planting will be starting soon if it has not already begun
    • Rain
      will be needed later this month to ensure good maize and other early season crop planting
  • Today’s
    Southern Oscillational Index was +10.32 and it was expected to move erratically during the coming week
  • New
    Zealand weather is expected to be a little wetter and cooler biased this week and then drier and warmer next week
  • Mexico
    rainfall will be restricted this week except for the heavy rain associated with Tropical Storm Pamela
  • Central
    America rainfall will be below average this week except in Costa Rica, Panama, and El Salvador where rainfall will be near to above normal

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar