PDF Attached

 

Attached
is the US corn balance sheet. 

 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

 

GREATEST
WEATHER ISSUES OF THE DAY

  • Tropical
    Storm Linfa formed east of Vietnam during the weekend and moved inland Sunday producing torrential rain along the central Vietnam Coast
    • The
      storm produced exceptionally great rainfall along the coast with amounts to 27.16 resulting at Da Nang and 14.13 inches at Hue
    • Flooding
      is quite serious in the region and damage to property and some crops has resulted
  • Queensland
    and northeastern New South Wales, Australia has a good chance for rain periodically next week
    • The
      moisture may stimulate improved planting moisture for dryland cotton, sorghum and other crops
  • Western
    Australia still has some “potential” to receive some needed rain next week. If the moisture evolves there would be at least a short term bout of improvement in topsoil  moisture during reproduction and filling for wheat, barley and canola
    • The
      moisture is badly needed to bolster soil moisture and to prevent any further decline in potential yields because of net drying
    • The
      European model continues dry biased for the next ten days
  • Russia’s
    Southern Region is not expecting “meaningful” rainfall over the next ten days to two weeks and the same is true for Kazakhstan, although there may be a few spits and spats of moisture infrequently
  • Argentina’s
    rain potential has improved in the north for mid-week this week and there is still at least one opportunity for rain in key grain and oilseed production areas next week
    • The
      moisture is needed to improve early corn and sunseed establishment and to stimulate some new planting
    • The
      moisture is also needed to maintain wheat production potentials and prevent any further decline
    • Rain
      is needed most in Cordoba, central and northern Santa Fe and Santiago del Estero
  • Brazil’s
    center south and center west will encounter scattered showers and thunderstorms over the next ten days which should improve early soybean planting conditions for many areas, but not all.
    • Greater
      rain will still be needed in several areas
    • Corn,
      rice and other crops will benefit from the moisture as well
  • Brazil’s
    coffee areas from northern Parana to Zona de Mata should get rain later this week through next week to stop the decline in crop conditions and to induce some flowering
  • U.S.
    Southern Plains have very little potential for “meaningful” rain over the next ten days leaving unirrigated crops stressed in dry soil
    • Some
      delay in additional planting and germination is expected until rain falls
    • Recent
      hot weather has been stressful for unirrigated seedlings raising the potential for crop failure
    • Cooling
      this week will reduce some of the crop stress, but rain is needed
  • Dryness
    in the U.S. Plains continues to expand quickly under high temperatures, low relative humidity and strong wind speeds
  • Livestock
    stress in the U.S. Plains has been high recently, but cooling this week will reduce some of that stress
  • Northern
    U.S. Plains will begin to receive some periodic rain over the coming week to ten days
    • The
      region is quite dry and winter crops need moisture for improved establishment
      • The
        precipitation advertised may be a little erratic and light
  • U.S.
    harvest weather in the lower Midwest and Great Plains will be mostly good through the next ten days , despite a couple of cool fronts and brief bouts of rain
    • Rain
      is expected in the northern Plains and upper Midwest most often causing some disruption to fieldwork, but progress will advance between events
    • Temperatures
      will be warm early this week and then colder for the balance of this week and into the weekend
      • The
        cool bias will slow evaporation rates which may delay drying rates for those areas that get periodic rain
      • Harvesting
        in the drier areas will advance well, despite cooling
  • U.S
    Delta and southeastern states will experience net drying conditions for at least ten days (after rain ends in the southeastern states Monday)
    • The
      drying is needed to promote crop maturation and harvest progress
    • Several
      days of drying will be needed before fieldwork can begin in those areas impacted by excessive rain from Hurricane Delta or other recent rain
  • Central
    India rainfall will increase late this week through the weekend causing some delay in summer crop harvesting and raising a little crop quality concern for soybeans, pulse crops and cotton as well as a little mature rice
    • Drying
      should evolve again next week

 

OTHER
WEATHER ISSUES OF INTEREST

  • Hurricane
    Delta moved into Louisiana Friday evening and moved as expected through the lower Mississippi River Basin to the Tennessee River Basin where it dissipated
    • Rainfall
      of ranged from 8.00 to more than 20.00 inches in the interior southwestern part of Louisiana
    • Rainfall
      ranged from 4.00 to more than 8.00 inches in the remaining middle two thirds of Louisiana and ranged from 2.00 to 5.00 inches in southeastern Arkansas and west-central Mississippi while 1.50 to 3.00 inches occurred in many other areas in northeastern Arkansas,
      southwestern Tennessee and northern Mississippi.
    • Rainfall
      also ranged from 1.50 to more than 4.00 inches in central, east-central and northeastern Alabama  and western and central North Carolina as well as northern South Carolina
    • Rainfall
      of 3.00 to nearly 8.00 inches from north-central through northeastern Georgia
  • Weekend
    temperatures in the United States were unusually warm in the central states and seasonably warm elsewhere
    • Many
      highs were in the 80s and lower 90s
  • Typhoon
    Chan-Hom stayed south of Japan’s main islands during the weekend, but heavy rainfall occurred in southern Honshu with amounts of 1.34 to 3.50 inches with local totals of up to 7.00 inches
    • Some
      local flooding resulted
    • Crop
      damage away from the coasts was minimal
    • The
      typhoon has dissipated
  • A
    previous tropical disturbance that was along the southern Vietnam coast Friday moved west northwesterly into the Andaman Sea produced local rain totals over 4.00 inches in a part of southwestern Thailand early in the weekend
    • Extreme
      amounts reached 11.46 inches
  • Tropical
    disturbance 205 miles southeast of Visakhapatnam in northeastern Andhra Pradesh at 0600 GMT today was moving westerly while producing wind speeds of up to 25 mph
    • The
      system will continue to organize and intensify before moving inland through northeastern Andhra Pradesh later today and early Tuesday
    • The
      storm will then move to Maharashtra after passing through Telangana during mid-week, but may linger along the west-central India coast during the balance of this week and into the weekend producing waves of rain
      • Rainfall
        will be heavy this week varying from 2.00 to more than 6.00 inches with local totals approaching 10.00 inches in several locations resulting in some flooding
  • Tropical
    Storm Nangka was located 277 miles south southeast of Hong Kong at 18.0 north, 115.1 east at 0900 GMT today moving westerly at 15 mph and producing maximum sustained wind speeds of 40 mph out 45 miles from the storm center
    • Nangka
      will strengthen, but remain at tropical storm status over the next 24 hours before weakening
    • The
      storm will move over Hainan, China late Tuesday and Wednesday before reaching northern Vietnam later this week
      • Some
        flooding rain is expected in both areas
  • One
    more tropical cyclone may evolve near the Philippines later this week before moving across the South China Sea and reaching central Vietnam at the end of this week and during the weekend
    • Some
      heavy rain and flooding is expected in Vietnam’s Central Highlands possibly threatening some of its coffee production
  • Another
    tropical cyclone may evolve in the Bay of Bengal this weekend that could threaten the central east coast of India with more excessive wind, rain and flooding
  • Southern
    Oscillation Index rises to highest level of the La Nina event at +12.34 and the index is expected to level off for a while this week
    • The
      strongly positive index can be an early indicator of increasing rainfall for Southeast Asia, India and eastern Australia
    • Improved
      South Africa rainfall is also a possibility as the SOI strengthens and then prevails, but today’s outlook is not offering much more than sporadic showers and thunderstorms
  • Central
    and eastern Europe rainfall will be abundant to excessive this workweek
    • Rain
      totals of 2.00 to more than 6.00 inches will occur from the Adriatic Sea region to eastern Germany and Poland through Friday
      • The
        moisture will delay fieldwork and result in some flooding
      • Unharvested
        summer crop quality may decrease
    • Improving
      weather will occur across Europe for several days later this week through the weekend before a new stormy pattern evolves in western parts of the continent next week
  • Kazakhstan
    remains too dry and no relief is expected for two weeks
  • South
    Africa weather is slowly improving with recent rain in the south and east, but more rain is still needed to support spring planting and to ensure the best finish for winter crops
    • An
      erratic precipitation pattern is expected over the next ten days resulting in some additional pockets of improvement, but more generalized rain will be needed
  • Southeastern
    Canada and the U.S. Great Lakes region will continue to experience periodic rainfall during the coming week to ten days which may lead to some delay in farming activity
    • Drier
      biased weather is needed to expedite fieldwork
  • Southeast
    Asia rainfall over the next ten days will be erratic, but most areas will be impacted multiple times in the next two weeks supporting most crop needs
  • Mexico
    precipitation will be most significant in the south of the nation over the coming week to ten days
  • Central
    America will be sufficient wet over the next ten days to two weeks delaying early season crop maturation but favoring long term water supply.

·        
West-central Africa will experience waves of rain through the next ten days favoring coffee, cocoa, sugarcane, rice and other crops

    • Cotton
      areas need some drier weather
    • Rainfall
      will be well above average in areas from Ghana to Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia

·        
East-central Africa rain will be erratic and light over the next couple of weeks, but most of Uganda, southwestern Kenya and portions of Ethiopia will be impacted while Tanzania receives restricted amounts of rain

·        
Philippines rain will be widespread over the next ten days to two weeks maintaining a favorable outlook for crops

    • Some
      heavy rain will come with the next tropical cyclone later this week

·        
New Zealand weather will be wetter than usual in North Island and western parts of South Island while below average in eastern parts of South Island

    • Temperatures
      will be below average

Source: 
World Weather Inc. 

 

 

 

 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Monday,
Oct. 12:

  • EU
    weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
  • Ivory
    Coast cocoa arrivals
  • Malaysian
    Palm Oil Board releases Sept. end- stocks, output, exports
  • SGS
    releases Malaysia Oct. 1-10 palm oil export data
  • Cherkizovo
    trading update
  • Vietnam
    Customs data on coffee, rice and rubber exports in September
  • HOLIDAY:
    Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Chile

Tuesday,
Oct. 13:

  • U.S.
    crop conditions, harvesting progress for soybeans, corn, cotton, 4pm
  • USDA
    weekly corn, soybean, wheat export inspections, 11am
  • China
    trade data on soybeans and meat imports
  • New
    Zealand Food Prices
  • France’s
    agriculture ministry crop estimates
  • U.K.’s
    AHDB Grain Market Outlook Conference
  • U.S.
    winter wheat planted, 4pm
  • HOLIDAY:
    Thailand

Wednesday,
Oct. 14:

  • Leman
    China Swine Conference, Chongqing, day 1
  • FranceAgriMer
    monthly crops report
  • Global
    Food Forum, Australia, day 1
  • Malaysia
    3Q cocoa grinding figures

Thursday,
Oct. 15:

  • Malaysia
    Oct. 1-15 palm oil export data
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • EIA
    U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
  • Global
    Food Forum, Australia, day 2
  • Leman
    China Swine Conference, Chongqing, day 2
  • European
    Cocoa Association grindings

Friday,
Oct. 16:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • Asia
    3Q cocoa grinds
  • Cocoa
    Association of Asia’s webinar on Asian cocoa demand
  • Leman
    China Swine Conference, Chongqing, day 3

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

Corn.

  • Corn
    futures traded two-sided, ending 4.0 to 6.0 cents lower. 
  • Funds
    sold an estimated net 28,000 corn contracts. 
  • Ukraine’s
    UGA lowered crop estimates for corn and wheat production to 32.5 million tons from 35.3 MMT previously and 25.3 million tons from 26.6 previous, respectively. Ukraine corn production was taken down 2 million tons to 36.5 million tons by USDA.  Russian corn
    was unchanged at 15 million tons. 
  • Germany
    ASF: 10 new cases; 65 cases since September 10 

 

Corn
Export Developments

  • Iran
    seeks 200,000 tons of barley on October 14. 
  • Taiwan’s
    MFIG seeks 65,000 tons of corn on October 14 for Dec/Jan shipment. 

 

Updated
10/9/20

December
corn is seen in a $3.75-$4.10 range

China
could easily change the global balance sheet if they boost corn imports above 15 million tons in 2021. 

 

Soybean
complex
.
 

 

 

 

 

Oilseeds
Export Developments

  • Last
    week USDA bought 4,000 tons of soybean meal under the PL480 program for Georgia. 
  • On
    October 13 USDA seeks 22,000 tons of soybeans for export to Egypt with November 10-20 shipment.
  • Iran’s
    SLAL seeks 200,000 tons of soybean meal and 200,000 tons of barley on October 14 for OND shipment. 
  • Syria
    seeks 50,000 tons of soybean meal and 50,000 tons of corn on October 26 for delivery within four months of contract. 

 

Updated
10/12/20

November
soybeans are seen in a $10.25-$11.10 range

December
soybean meal is seen in a $345-$385 range

December
soybean oil is seen in a 32.50-35.00 range

 

Wheat

  • US
    wheat futures traded mixed on lack of direction and erratic trading in soybeans.     
  • Chicago
    ended unchanged to 1.25 cents higher, KC 2.0-5.0 cents lower and Mn wheat 1.0-2.25 cents lower. 
  • Paris
    (Matif) December wheat was 0.50 higher at 200.75 euros.
  • EU
    soft wheat exports  are running 29 percent below the previous season. 
  • Russian
    wheat prices:
    • IKAR
      12.5% protein Black Sea ports October was at $245 a ton free on board (FOB), up $8 from the previous week
    • SovEcon
      up $4 to $239 per ton
  • U.K.
    Wheat Imports Are Running 65% Higher Y/y: Customs (Bloomberg)

 

 

Export
Developments.

  • Algeria
    seeks at least 50,000 tons of wheat from the several countries including the Black Sea on October 12, valid until Tuesday, for Oct/Nov shipment. 
  • Pakistan
    seeks 300,000 tons of wheat on October 14 for arrival by end of January. 
  • Jordan
    seeks 120,000 tons of wheat on October 14, optional origin, for Jan -late Feb shipment.
  • Ethiopia
    seeks 400,000 tons of wheat by October 13.
  • (new
    9/15) Ethiopia seeks about 200,000 tons of milling wheat on October 15.

 

Rice/Other

·        
Mauritius seeks 5,500 tons of white rice on October 20 for Dec 15-Mar 15, 2021 delivery.

 

Updated
10/9/20

December Chicago wheat is seen in a $5.70-$6.30 range

December KC wheat is seen in a $5.20-$5.70 range

December MN wheat is seen in a $5.35-$5.60 range

 

Terry Reilly

Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds

Futures International │190 S LaSalle St., Suite 410│Chicago, IL  60603

W: 312.604.1366

treilly@futures-int.com

ICE IM: 
treilly1

Skype: fi.treilly

 

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