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Wild
trade in US agriculture markets with wheat leading corn and soybeans lower.  USDA reported additional 24-hour sales this morning. 
USDA
export sales were good for corn and soybeans.  Conab surprised the trade by reporting a large soybean production and much smaller than expected corn output.  

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

US
CPC: La Nina weather may intensify OND to a moderate or strong event, and peak between November and January, then weaken after April.  South America weather during La Nina events includes less than usual rainfall in eastern Argentina, Uruguay, southern Paraguay
and Rio Grande do Sul during the late spring and summer months.  US Great Plains tends to see drier than normal conditions. 

 

 

U.S. Drought Monitor Change Map

 

 

 

 

FEW
CHANGES OF SIGNIFICANCE OVERNIGHT

  • Hurricane
    Delta will have a big impact on the lower U.S. Mississippi River Basin Friday and Saturday
    • Torrential
      rainfall is expected from Louisiana through western Tennessee and eastern Arkansas to areas south of the Ohio River from late tonight into Monday resulting in some flooding and crop damage
      • Sugarcane
        in Louisiana will be damaged by high wind speeds with the western crop most seriously impacted
      • Cotton
        damage is also possible with heavy rain occurring from Louisiana to western Tennessee that might string out some cotton
        • Losses
          will be greatest where boll rot has evolved
        • Cotton
          quality declines are expected
        • Quite
          a bit of harvesting has occurred recently which should reduce losses
        • Hurricane
          Delta will also be faster in diminishing which may help to reduce the threat of serious wind damage, but heavy rain is still expected
      • Unharvested
        rice, sorghum and soybeans will also be negatively impacted, but not as severely as that of cotton or sugarcane
    • Harvest
      delays for all crops in the Delta are expected, but drier weather will be back next week
  • Center
    west and center south Brazil will experience some periodic showers and thunderstorms during the next couple of weeks with the precipitation being a little sporadic and light through the weekend and again October 19-23
    • Resulting
      rainfall will vary greatly from one location to another and from one day to the next with mid-week next week wettest
    • Minas
      Gerais will be wettest along with neighboring areas of Espirito Santo and Rio de Janeiro
    • Portions
      of Mato Grosso do Sul, western Sao Paulo and northwestern Parana will be driest
      • Moisture
        totals may not be enough to counter evaporation raising some concern for crop in that area
    • Some
      soybean planting is expected to occur
    • Coffee
      in Minas Gerais, Espirito Santo and Rio de Janeiro will benefit greatly from next week’s rainfall
    • Excessive
      heat in center west, and center south Brazil will be eased as rainfall increases
  • Tropical
    Storm Chan-Hom will threaten Japan Friday into the weekend with some heavy rain and potential flooding; the storm will become a weak typhoon today and will weaken to a tropical storm after impacting parts of Kyushu and Shikoku Friday and Saturday
    • Landfall
      is not expected, but the storm will be close enough to the main islands to induce some heavy rain and windy conditions
    • Minor
      damage is expected to structures, but most crops are not likely to be seriously impacted
  • Tropical
    disturbance moving through mainland areas of Southeast Asia today will generate additional rain today
    • This
      disturbance may reach the Bay of Bengal Friday into weekend and will contribute to greater rain in India Sunday through Friday of next week
  • Disturbed
    tropical weather in the Philippines will generate greater rainfall today and Friday with two tropical cyclones coming from the disturbance
    • First
      tropical cyclone will evolve west of the Philippines tonight and Friday and it will move to central and southern Vietnam next week possibly bringing heavy rain and windy conditions to some coffee production areas
    • A
      second tropical cyclone of weaker intensity will move to Guangdong, China after evolving northeast of Luzon Island; landfall may occur in China early to mid-week next week
  • Northeastern
    China will experience drier weather over the next couple of weeks and colder temperatures

 

BIGGEST
WEATHER ISSUES OF THE DAY

  • Russia’s
    Southern Region remains too dry with and no significant relief for at least ten days; there is some indication of possible rainfall after October 20.
  • Kazakhstan
    remains too dry and no relief is expected for two weeks
  • U.S.
    west-central and southwestern hard red winter wheat areas in the Plains will be hot and dry this week and may cool down briefly this weekend only to heat back up again next week
    • Rainfall
      continues minimal for the region through at least October 20
  • Northwestern
    U.S. Plains remain quite dry and winter crops are not establishing well; there is a chance for “some” showers briefly this weekend, but they will be light
  • No
    change in Argentina dryness is expected for the next eight or nine days from central and northern Cordoba and parts of central Santa Fe to northwestern parts of the nation maintaining worry over winter and spring crops
    • Some
      rain may evolve in parts of the dry region after October 17
  • Rain
    is expected in southern Buenos Aires, Argentina briefly this weekend with rainfall of 0.20 to 0.75 inch resulting
  • Western
    Australia is still too dry, although some showers will occur in the far south part of the state today
    • No
      significant relief to dryness will occur through October 17
    • Showers
      may return to a few southern areas Oct. 18-22, but confidence is low
  • Queensland,
    Australia still needs significant rain for summer crop planting; “some” rain is possible October 18-21, but mostly in the southeast where some cotton, sorghum and sugarcane areas might benefit
  • Central
    India will trend wetter again next week after this week’s rain is greatest in the south and far eastern states
    • Too
      much rain is expected in central India as a tropical cyclone moves into the region and has trouble ending rainfall
      • Local
        flooding and delays to harvesting will result
      • Worry
        over summer crop quality will be rising
  • South
    Africa weather is slowly improving with rain in the south and east with periods of rain continuing over the next couple of weeks
  • Southeastern
    Canada and the U.S. Great Lakes region will experience a better mix of weather over the next week to ten days after frequent precipitation
  • U.S.
    harvest weather in the Midwest and Great Plains will be good through Saturday
    • Rain
      is expected in the northern Plains and upper Midwest late this weekend into early next week
    • Some
      rain from Hurricane Delta may reach into the lower eastern Midwest this weekend causing delays to fieldwork briefly Sunday and Monday, but drying will evolve shortly thereafter
  • U.S
    Midwest and Great Plains weather next week will be mostly good with only a brief period in which rain is expected to occur in association with frontal systems
  • U.S.
    southeastern states harvest will advance well for a few more days, but some rain is expected this weekend into early next week that may slow fieldwork for a little while
  • U.S.
    temperatures will trend warmer this week until the late weekend and early week frontal system arrives in the Plains and eventually moves through the Midwest during mid-week next week
    • Highs
      in the Midwest will rise to the 70s and lower 80s through the weekend with gradual cooling expected next week and into the following weekend as a series of cool fronts move through the region
    • High
      temperatures in the Plains will be in the upper 70s and 80s during much of this week with 90s in some southern locations
      • Cooling
        will occur late this weekend and especially next week with a more seasonable range of temperatures expected over time
    • Cooling
      is expected in the Pacific Northwest late this week and during the weekend after several more very warm days through Friday
    • No
      threatening cold nighttime temperatures are expected in any part of the U.S. through the next ten days
  • Central
    and western Ukraine and portions of southeastern Europe will receive waves of rain through most of next week
    • Sufficient
      rain will fall to relieve some of the driest areas from dryness
    • Rainfall
      of 0.50 to 2.50 inches and locally more by the end of next week
    • Temperatures
      will be warmer than usual in much of the forecast period
  • Eastern
    Ukraine, like Russia’s Southern Region and Kazakhstan, will get little to no rain for the next ten days
  • Europe
    will continue to experience waves of rain over the next two weeks, but the intensity in western areas will be much less than that of this past weekend
    • Spain
      and Portugal will be driest in this first ten days of the outlook with some areas in the Iberian Peninsula getting rain after Oct. 18.
    • Temperatures
      in western Europe will  be near normal while those in the east are warmer than usual
  • South
    America temperatures will be very warm to hot in center west and center south Brazil this week and then cooler next week
    • Argentina
      temperatures will be seasonable during both weeks
  • Southeast
    Asia rainfall over the next ten days will be erratic, but most areas will be impacted multiple times in the next two weeks supporting most crop needs
  • Mexico
    precipitation will be most significant in the far south  of the nation over the coming week to ten days
  • Central
    America will be wetter biased over the next ten days to two weeks further easing long term dryness and possibly delaying early season crop maturation.

·        
West-central Africa will experience waves of rain through the next ten days favoring coffee, cocoa, sugarcane, rice and other crops

·        
East-central Africa rain will be erratic and light over the next couple of weeks, but most of Uganda, southwestern Kenya and portions of Ethiopia will be impacted while Tanzania is mostly dry

·        
Philippines rain will be widespread over the next ten days to two weeks maintaining a favorable outlook for crops

·        
New Zealand temperatures will be near to below average over the next seven days while precipitation is lighter than usual except along the lower west coast of South Island where rain will fall abundantly

  • Southern
    Oscillation Index was +10.49 today and it will stay significantly positive through the coming week

Source: 
World Weather Inc. 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

THURSDAY,
Oct. 8:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • UN
    FAO World Food Price Index
  • India
    SEA-Globoil webinar with Dorab Mistry, Thomas Mielke and James Fry
  • Brazil’s
    Conab releases first report on 2020-21 planted area, output and yield of soy and corn
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • EARNINGS:
    Suedzucker, Agrana
  • HOLIDAY:
    China

FRIDAY,
Oct. 9:

  • USDA’s
    WASDE report with world supply/demand crops update, stockpiles noon
  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • China’s
    CNGOIC to publish monthly soy and corn reports
  • China
    agriculture ministry (CASDE) to release its monthly data on supply and demand
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • Brazil
    Unica cane crush, sugar production (tentative)
  • HOLIDAY:
    Korea

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

USDA
export sales
were
very good for soybeans, substandard for meal and oil, good for corn and good for wheat.  China took 1.538MMT of soybeans, but that included 449,000 switched from unknown destinations.  Mexico and Egypt were good buyers of soybeans.  Corn export sales of 1.226MMT
included Japan and Mexico as the largest buyers.

 

 

 

 

Macros

US
initial Jobless Claims: 840K (est 820K, prev 837K)

 

 

Corn.

 

Corn
Export Developments

  • South
    Korea’s KFA bought 131,000 tons of corn at $242.79/ton c&f from South America for Dec/Jan shipment. 

 

Updated
9/30/20

  • December
    corn is seen in a $3.60-$4.00 range. 2020-21 to average $3.75 for corn and $2.85 for oats. 

 

Soybean
complex
.
 

  • Conab
    reported a larger than expected initial Brazil soybean production of 133.7 million tons, 1.5 million above a Bloomberg trade average and 8.8 million tons above 2019-20.  This and strong spot US soybean export demand promoted additional bull spreading in soybeans. 
  • CBOT
    soybean open interest hit a record 1,025,829 contracts on Wednesday +2,477.
  • We
    heard China inquired for soybeans for February shipment.  No confirmation on that was provided. 
  • Brazil
    producers sold about 50 percent of their 2020-21 soybean crop or over 65 million tons. 
  • Traders
    are now expecting a friendly USDA S&D update with lower US yield and possible increase in US exports due to planting delays in Brazil.  
  • China
    is back from holiday Friday. 
  • UK
    sees their rapeseed crop at 1.07 million tons, down 39 percent. 
  • Oil
    World came out with price projections and general takeaway is that they are looking for palm prices to widen over soybean oil in 2021, Indonesia palm FH 2021 to rise to $700/ton and Argentina soybean oil during FH 2021 at $820/ton vs. $662/ton year ago. 
  • James
    Fry sees La Nina disrupting palm production across Asia and global crude production supply will be down in 2020, while rains in 2021 boosting production and stocks in Malaysia to increase before falling. 
  • India’s
    SEA sees 2019-20 edible oil stocks at 13.5 MMT from 14.9 MMT year earlier.  
  • Dorab
    Ministry expects global vegetable oil prices in 2021 to average higher than 2020 due to tight supplies and higher demand. 
  • MPOB
    report will be out October 12.  Traders are looking for Sep MPOB palm production to increase 3.1% from Aug.

 

Oilseeds
Export Developments

  • Under
    the 24-hour announcement system, private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture the following activity:

–Export
sales of 374,000 tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2020/2021 marketing year

–Export
sales of 152,404 tons of soybeans for delivery to Mexico during the 2020/2021 marketing year

–Export
sales of 132,000 tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2020/2021 marketing year

  • South
    Korea’s MFG bought 60,000 tons of soybean meal at $449.50/ton C&F for Nov 18-Dec 18 shipment.
  • Syria
    seeks 50,000 tons of soybean meal and 50,000 tons of corn on October 26 for delivery within four months of contract. 

 

 

Updated
10/6/20