PDF Attached

 

USDA
reported additional 24-hour sales this morning.  USDA Attaché issued a bullish China corn S&D. 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

 

 

 

 

SA Week 1 Accum Precipitation (mm) Forecast

 

NORTH
AMERICA

  • GFS
    model removed much of the rain previously advertised from hard red winter wheat country during the next ten days, although a few showers remained
    • Some
      of the reduction was needed
  • European
    model has greater rain in northern and eastern portions of hard red winter wheat areas, as well as eastern Colorado leaving the southwest half of the region mostly dry
    • European
      model is a little too wet in Colorado, Nebraska and northwestern Kansas
  • European
    model has greater rain for the western and central Midwest next week while the GFS has limited rainfall in the region
    • The
      lighter and more limited rainfall outlook is correct, although the region may not be completely dry
  • GFS
    model rain was increased in the lower and eastern Midwest mostly from the Ohio River Valley because of Hurricane Delta
    • This
      change was needed
  • European
    model run was wetter over a larger part of the central and eastern Midwest from the hurricane and a mid-latitude frontal system that follows
    • The
      model is too wet

 

Overall,
the bottom line today is rain in hard red winter wheat is expected to be restricted during the next ten days to two weeks as was the official World Weather earlier this week. The models have been periodically overdoing rainfall in the region and today’s
GFS model run is preferred, although additional changes are probable. The European model is too wet for the Midwest over the next ten days, but World Weather, Inc. agrees with bringing moisture from
Hurricane Delta farther north into the lower Midwest than advertised Tuesday.

 

SOUTH
AMERICA

  • GFS
    model outlook has not changed greatly for center west into center south Brazil for next week with rain expected in many areas
  • Restricted
    rainfall occurs in Mato Grosso do Sul, western Parana and western Sao Paulo
    ,
    although a little more rain falls in these areas than advertised Tuesday morning
  • Rain
    in Brazil’s center south and center west crop areas is restricted from Friday of next week through October 21, although a few sporadic showers are expected – net drying is expected
  • Far
    southern Brazil is still advertised to see a good mix of rain and sunshine during the next ten days to two weeks favoring crops and fieldwork
  • No
    changes were noted in Argentina for the first ten days of the outlook with Buenos Aires and eastern La Pampa getting most of the nation’s significant rain – most of which occurs Saturday into Sunday of this week
  • Argentina
    rainfall was advertised to increase Oct. 18-21, but the latest model run reduced rain in San Luis, La Pampa and western Cordoba relative to the 00z model run
    • Some
      of this reduction was needed

 

The
generalities of the South America outlook have not changed much today relative to the previous model run or the overall outlook suggested Tuesday. Argentina is not likely to see much rain for ten days except in Buenos Aires and eastern La Pampa where some
rain will fall this weekend to maintain a good outlook for crops in that region. In Brazil, a period of beneficial moisture will impact center west and center south crop areas next week; although portions of Mato Grosso do Sul and western and northern Parana
as well as western Sao Paulo may not get much rain and will need more soon.

 

EUROPE/BLACK
SEA REGION

  • Some
    rain fell in western Ukraine overnight with amounts to 0.75 and local totals to 1.34 inches, but this moisture did not reach into eastern areas
  • No
    significant theme changes occurred overnight
    • Rain
      will fall in most of Europe over the coming week to ten days to two weeks
      • Areas
        from the Adriatic Sea region to southeastern Germany, western and southern Poland and parts of western Europe will be wettest
    • Eastern
      Ukraine will continue to receive little to no
    • Kazakhstan.
      The middle and lower Volga River Basin and Russia’s Southern Region will continue very dry

CHINA

  • No
    general theme changes noted overnight
    • Northeastern
      China may not get rain every day, but its frequency will still be high enough along with seasonably milder temperatures to slow the region’s needed drying and further delaying some of the region’s summer crop maturation and harvest progress
    • A
      good mix of rain and sunshine in the Yellow River Basin and North China Plain will be perfect for wheat planting, germination and emergence while allowing some of the region’s summer crops to mature and be harvested
    • Frequent
      rain near and south of the Yangtze River will slow farming activity and maintain some concern over crop conditions

China
still needs drier weather in most areas in the nation to promote summer crop maturation and harvesting and to support early season wheat and other winter crop planting. The northeastern Provinces are still much too wet, although the region has seen a little
less frequent and less significant rainfall recently.

 

INDIA

  • No
    general theme changes were noted overnight
    • A
      better mix of rain and sunshine will occur in northeastern China during the next two weeks allowing for better harvest progress
    • The
      best weather will continue in the Yellow River Basin and North China Plain where a favorable mix of rain and sunshine is expected to support winter crop planting and summer crop harvest progress

 

AUSTRALIA

  • No
    big changes were noted overnight in the coming ten days
    • Western
      Austr4alia is still not advertised to receive much significant rain
      • Only
        a few showers near the southern and lower western coasts are expected
    • Rain
      will fall often enough in Victoria, South Australia and southern New South Wales to maintain a very good crop outlook
  • Rain
    was increased in southeastern Queensland and northeastern New South Wales after October 18 and through Oct. 21
    • Some
      of this increase was needed, but it might also be a little overdone

 

Limited
rainfall in Western Australia continues to raise worry over potential wheat, barley and canola yields in unirrigated areas away from the coasts where reproduction might occur without sufficient moisture to support the best yields. There is still time for improved
rain, although none is expected for the next two weeks.  Rain in southeastern Queensland and northeastern New South Wales should translate into favorable sorghum and cotton planting conditions, but the event is still more than ten days away which warrants
a little caution since changes can still occur over time.

Source: 
World Weather Inc. 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

WEDNESDAY,
Oct. 7:

  • EIA
    U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
  • HOLIDAY:
    China

THURSDAY,
Oct. 8:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • UN
    FAO World Food Price Index
  • India
    SEA-Globoil webinar with Dorab Mistry, Thomas Mielke and James Fry
  • Brazil’s
    Conab releases first report on 2020-21 planted area, output and yield of soy and corn
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • EARNINGS:
    Suedzucker, Agrana
  • HOLIDAY:
    China

FRIDAY,
Oct. 9:

  • USDA’s
    WASDE report with world supply/demand crops update, stockpiles noon
  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • China’s
    CNGOIC to publish monthly soy and corn reports
  • China
    agriculture ministry (CASDE) to release its monthly data on supply and demand
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • Brazil
    Unica cane crush, sugar production (tentative)
  • HOLIDAY:
    Korea

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

 

 

Macros

 

US
DoE Crude Oil Inventories (W/W) 02-Oct: 501K (est -1200K; prev -1980K)


Distillate Inventories (W/W): -962K (est -1100K; prev -3184K)


Cushing Inventories (W/W): 470K (prev 1785K)


Gasoline Inventories (W/W): -1435K (est -500K; prev 683K)


Refinery Utilization (W/W): 1.30% (est 0.10%; prev 1.00%)

 

Corn.

Million
previous season. 

https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Grain%20and%20Feed%20Update_Beijing_China%20-%20Peoples%20Republic%20of_09-27-2019

 

Weekly
US ethanol production increased 42,000 barrels to 923,000, highest weekly rate since early September.  Stocks decreased 19,000 barrels to 19.672 million.  A Bloomberg poll looked for ethanol production to be up 14,000 and stocks down 42,000 barrels. Production
is still well down from a year ago.  September through October 2 ethanol production is averaging 7.4 percent the same period a year ago.  Gasoline stocks fell 1.4 million barrels to 226.7 million.  The ethanol blend rate fell to 90% from 90.4% previous week,
lowest blend since Aug 14.  Implied corn use would be 5.05 billion bushels if weekly production increases slightly and averages about 925 million for the rest of the crop year. 

 

 

 

Corn
Export Developments

  • SK’s
    NOFI bought 59,000 tons of soybean meal at $451.49/ton c&f for Dec shipment and 206,000 tons of corn, expected to be from South America, at $239.80/ton c&f for LH No/FH Dec shipment. 

 

Updated
9/30/20

  • December
    corn is seen in a $3.60-$4.00 range. 2020-21 to average $3.75 for corn and $2.85 for oats. 

 

Soybean
complex
.
 

  • Malaysian
    palm oil prices appreciated for the third straight day, up 54 ringgit or nearly 2% to 2,872/ton.  Traders are looking for Sep MPOB palm production to increase 3.1% from Aug. Report will be out October 12. 
  • Brazil’s
    Parana state soybean plantings have seen their slowest start in five years. 
  • There
    was talk of disappointing yield results across selected Midwest locations on Tuesday.
  • Traders
    are now expecting a friendly USDA S&D update with lower US yield and possible increase in US exports due to planting delays in Brazil.  
  • CBOT
    soybean open interest hit a record 1,023,637 contracts on Tuesday +7,987.
  • Egypt:
    Vegetable oil reserves are sitting at a 6-month high after buying 86k tons on Tuesday. 

 

Oilseeds
Export Developments

  • Under
    the 24-hour announcement system, private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture the following activity:
    • Export
      sales of 132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2020/2021 marketing year
    • Export
      sales of 120,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2020/2021 marketing year

  • SK’s
    NOFI bought 59,000 tons of soybean meal at $451.49/ton c&f for Dec shipment and 206,000 tons of corn, expected to be from South America, at $239.80/ton c&f for LH No/FH Dec shipment. 
  • Syria
    seeks 50,000 tons of soybean meal and 50,000 tons of corn on October 26 for delivery within four months of contract. 

 

 

Updated
10/6/20

  • November
    soybeans are seen in a $10.00-$11.00 range; $9.60 average for 2020-21
  • December
    soybean meal is seen in a $340-$380 range.   $305 average for 2020-21
  • December
    soybean oil is seen in a 31.50-34.70 range.  34.00 cents average for 2020-21

 

Wheat

  • Russia
    plans to introduce grain export quotas for the January through June period.  Russia will remain in a drier bias pattern through FH October. 
  • Russia’s
    Deputy Prime Minister projected Russian grain exports may reach 50 million tons for 2020-21, up from 45 million previously.  For the Jan-Aug period, nearly 20 million tons of wheat was exported.
  • 70
    percent of Russia’s winter grain planting is complete as of October 5.    
  • Second
    week of the US weather outlook was a little wetter for the Midwest but the Great Plains will remain drier bias.
  • ProAgro:
    Ukraine 2020 grain production 69.44MMT, down from previous 71.34MMT, with corn at 31.74MMT from 34.02 last month. 
  • Paris
    (Matif) December wheat was 0.50 higher at 200.50 euros.