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Very
impressive move in the US agriculture markets today.  Ags were up sharply with some contracts establishing multi-year highs.  Soybean open interest is at a record!  Malaysian palm oil appreciated over 3.5 percent, up 97 MRY to 2818, in part to a report that
palm oil prices will be higher amid lower production from La Nina effects. 

USDA
announced sales of 154,400 tons of soybeans to unknown for 2020-21 delivery. 

 

US
soybeans hit a record high basis November today.  With prices much higher than a year ago, they are still well off from what we saw in drought year 2012. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

 

 

FEW
CHANGES OF SIGNIFICANCE OVERNIGHT

  • Hurricane
    Delta will have a greater impact on the lower U.S. Mississippi River Basin than previously expected.
    • Torrential
      rainfall is expected from Louisiana to Tennessee from Thursday into Saturday resulting in some flooding, but more importantly causing some crop damage
      • Sugarcane
        in Louisiana will be damaged by high wind speeds unless some aggressive harvesting can occur in the next few days
      • Cotton
        damage is also possible with new crop losses possible because of high wind speeds and heavy rain either blowing or stringing cotton out of open bolls
        • Losses
          will be greatest where boll rot has evolved
        • Cotton
          quality declines are expected      
    • Harvest
      delays for all crops in the Delta are expected
    • Rain
      from the storm will move through Kentucky and Tennessee before curving toward the middle Atlantic coastal states later in the weekend and Monday
  • Tropical
    Storm Gamma dissipated over the Yucatan Peninsula overnight, but the storm’s remnants will continue to generate frequent rain and some flooding
  • Center
    west and center south Brazil are advertised drier again at the end of next week and into the following weekend and if that verified it will be a great opportunity for aggressive fieldwork after showers scatter frequently Sunday through mid-week next week
  • Tropical
    Storm Chan-Hom will threaten Japan Friday into the weekend with some heavy rain and potential flooding; the storm may become a weak typhoon as it approaches Japan
  • Tropical
    disturbance near lower Vietnam coast will generate frequent rain through Wednesday as it moves inland through the Central Highlands coffee areas
    • This
      disturbance may reach the Bay of Bengal during the weekend and will contribute to greater rain in India next week
  • Disturbed
    tropical weather in the Philippines will generate greater rainfall over the next several days and a tropical cyclone “may” evolve near the country and move toward Vietnam early next week

 

BIGGEST
WEATHER ISSUES OF THE DAY

  • Russia’s
    Southern Region remains too dry with and no significant relief for at least ten days and probably two weeks
  • Kazakhstan
    remains too dry and no relief is expected for two weeks
  • U.S.
    west-central and southwestern hard red winter wheat areas in the Plains will be hot and dry this week and may cool down this weekend into next week
  • Northwestern
    U.S. Plains remain quite dry and winter crops are not establishing well; there is a chance for “some” showers briefly this weekend, but they will be light
  • No
    change in Argentina dryness is expected from central and northern Cordoba and parts of central Santa Fe to northwestern parts of the nation maintaining worry over winter and spring crops
  • Brazil
    heat and dryness will last through Friday and then some relief is expected during the weekend and especially early to mid-week next week in center west and center south crop areas
    • Drying
      may return to center west and center south crop areas at the end of next week and into the following weekend
  • Western
    Australia is still too dry, although some showers will occur in the far south part of the state late Wednesday into Thursday
  • Queensland,
    Australia still needs significant rain for summer crop planting; some rain is possible late next week and more likely in the following weekend
  • China
    will experience a bitter mix of rain and sunshine this week and next week; including the water logged northeast
  • Central
    India will trend wetter again next week after this week’s rain is greatest in the south and far eastern states
  • South
    Africa weather is slowly improving with rain in the south and east
  • Southeastern
    Canada and the U.S. Great Lakes region will experience a better mix of weather over the next week to ten days after frequent precipitation
  • U.S.
    harvest weather in the Midwest and Great Plains will be good through Saturday
    • Rain
      is expected in the northern Plains and upper Midwest late this weekend into early next week
    • Some
      rain from Hurricane Delta may reach into the lower eastern Midwest this weekend causing delays to fieldwork
  • U.S
    Midwest and Great Plains weather next week will be mostly good with only a brief period in which rain is expected to occur in association with frontal systems
  • U.S.
    southeastern states harvest will advance well through mid-week, but late week and weekend weather will deteriorate with rain and scattered thunderstorms expected
  • U.S.
    Delta faces torrential rain, flooding and strong wind speeds late Thursday through Saturday as Hurricane Delta impacts the region
    • Rain
      totals of 3.00 to 8.00 inches will impact Louisiana, southeastern Arkansas and much of Mississippi with 2.00 to 5.00 inches and locally more in Kentucky and Tennessee
    • Local
      rain totals over 10.00 inches will occur in Louisiana
    • Wind
      speeds will be well over hurricane force in southeastern Louisiana Friday as Hurricane Delta arrives
      • Wind
        speeds of 30 to 50 mph will occur into southwestern Mississippi and northeastern Louisiana while speeds of 20 to 40 mph occur northward into central Mississippi
    • Drier
      weather will occur Sunday into early next week and then a frontal system is expected later next week that may generate additional rain
  • U.S.
    temperatures will trend warmer this week until the late weekend frontal system arrives in the Plains and eventually moves through the Midwest next week
    • Highs
      in the Midwest will rise to the 70s and lower 80s through the weekend with gradual cooling expected next week as a series of cool fronts move through the region
    • High
      temperatures in the Plains will be in the upper 70s and 80s during much of this week with 90s in some southern locations
      • Cooling
        will occur late this weekend and especially next week with a more seasonable range of temperatures expected over time
    • Cooling
      is expected in the Pacific Northwest late this week and during the weekend after several more very warm days through Friday
    • No
      threatening cold nighttime temperatures are expected in any part of the U.S. through the next ten days
  • Central
    and western Ukraine and portions of southeastern Europe will receive waves of rain later this week through most of next week
    • Sufficient
      rain will fall to relieve some of the driest areas from dryness
    • Rainfall
      of 0.75 to 2.50 inches and local totals over 4.00 inches may occur by the end of next week
    • Temperatures
      will be warmer than usual in much of the forecast period
  • Eastern
    Ukraine, like Russia’s Southern Region and Kazakhstan, will get little to no rain for the next ten days and possibly two weeks
  • Europe
    will continue to experience waves of rain over the next two weeks, but the intensity in western areas will be much less than that of this past weekend
    • Spain
      and Portugal will be driest in this first ten days of the outlook with some areas in the Iberian Peninsula getting rain after Oct. 18.
    • Temperatures
      in western Europe will  be near normal while those in the east are warmer than usual
  • Western
    Australia and parts of Queensland will remain too dry
    • Rain
      will fall from eastern South Australia through Victoria and western and southern portions of New South Wales over the next few days and the drier for a while
    • Temperatures
      will be seasonable
  • India
    will experience frequent rain in the east and south over the next week with central areas trending wetter again next week as well
    • Some
      crop maturation and harvest disruption is expected
    • Northern
      India will continue to be mostly dry favoring summer crop maturation and harvest progress and some winter crop planting
  • Brazil
    weather will be dry biased in center west and center south crop areas through Saturday
    • Scattered
      showers develop Sunday and continue daily through the middle part of next week
      • Daily
        rainfall will vary from 0.20 to 0.75 inch with a few 1.00 to 2.00-inch totals
        • The
          greatest rain is expected in Minas Gerais, southern Espirito Santo, Rio de Janeiro and areas south into northeastern Parana
        • A
          few locations in Mato Grosso could also receive a few daily rain totals over 1.00 inch
    • Improved
      soil moisture should support at least some improved topsoil moisture for better soybean and corn planting
      • Some
        improved coffee flowering and pollinating conditions will also occur
      • Citrus
        will flower additionally
      • Sugarcane
        development will become more aggressive as topsoil moisture improves
    • Some
      drier weather is now advertised to return to center west and center south Brazil for the end of next week and into the following weekend
  • Argentina
    rainfall is expected to be limited over the coming week to ten days with rain most likely in Buenos Aires infrequently, but often enough to maintain favorable soil and crop conditions
    • Crop
      moisture stress will continue in the driest areas of Cordoba, Santa Fe, Santiago del Estero, western Chaco and areas northwest to Salta
  • South
    America temperatures will be very warm to hot in center west and center south Brazil this week and then cooler next week
    • Argentina
      temperatures will be seasonable during both weeks
  • Southeast
    Asia rainfall over the next ten days will be erratic, but most areas will be impacted multiple times in the next two weeks supporting most crop needs
  • Mexico
    precipitation will be most significant in the far south  of the nation over the coming week to ten days
  • Central
    America will be wetter biased over the next ten days to two weeks further easing long term dryness and possibly delaying early season crop maturation.
  • South
    Africa will experience erratic rainfall over the next couple of weeks
    • The
      precipitation will begin to improve topsoil moisture for spring planting and winter crop reproduction, but greater rain will still be needed

·        
West-central Africa will experience waves of rain through the next ten days favoring coffee, cocoa, sugarcane, rice and other crops

·        
East-central Africa rain will be erratic and light over the next couple of weeks, but most of Uganda, southwestern Kenya and portions of Ethiopia will be impacted while Tanzania is mostly dry

·        
Philippines rain will be widespread over the next ten days to two weeks maintaining a favorable outlook for crops

·        
New Zealand temperatures will be near to below average over the next seven days while precipitation is lighter than usual with the greatest amounts likely along the lower west coast of South Island

  • Southern
    Oscillation Index was +9.92 today and it will stay significantly positive through the coming week

Source: 
World Weather Inc. 

 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

TUESDAY,
Oct. 6:

  • Purdue
    Agriculture Sentiment
  • New
    Zealand global dairy trade auction
  • HOLIDAY:
    China

WEDNESDAY,
Oct. 7:

  • EIA
    U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
  • HOLIDAY:
    China

THURSDAY,
Oct. 8:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • UN
    FAO World Food Price Index
  • India
    SEA-Globoil webinar with Dorab Mistry, Thomas Mielke and James Fry
  • Brazil’s
    Conab releases first report on 2020-21 planted area, output and yield of soy and corn
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • EARNINGS:
    Suedzucker, Agrana
  • HOLIDAY:
    China

FRIDAY,
Oct. 9:

  • USDA’s
    WASDE report with world supply/demand crops update, stockpiles noon
  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • China’s
    CNGOIC to publish monthly soy and corn reports
  • China
    agriculture ministry (CASDE) to release its monthly data on supply and demand
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • Brazil
    Unica cane crush, sugar production (tentative)
  • HOLIDAY:
    Korea

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

Macros

 

Corn.

  • Macro
    trade today supported overall US agriculture futures.  WTI was very strong for the second day in a row.  The short term energy outlook calls for WTI prices to increase in 2021. 
    https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/?src=email
  • CBOT
    corn traded sharply higher on strength in soybeans and concerns SA plantings (soybeans) are running behind normal for this time of year.  December corn was up 5.50 cents and March up 5.00 cents. 
  • Nearby
    corn hit its highest level since January 2020. 
  • Funds
    bought an estimated net 25,000 contracts. 
  • Midday
    weather outlook showed the GFS model making a slight westward shift to Hurricane Delta and the storm moves from south-central Louisiana early Saturday into northern Mississippi by Saturday night with a larger part of the northern Delta to western and central
    Kentucky seeing heavy rain. 
  • USD
    was 5 lower as of 1: 30 pm CT.  
  • Germany
    ASF:  49 cases since September 10 
  • RFA:
    U.S. ethanol exports in August increased 35% to 100.7 million gallons, largest volume since March.  Canada remained the largest customer.  India slowed imports and Brazil returned to pick up a small amount.  US DDGS exports in August fell 6 percent to 1.02
    million tons.
  • US
    corn exports during August were 4.539 million tons vs, 2.793MMT year earlier.  Mexico and China were the largest takers. 

 

Corn
Export Developments

  • Syria
    seeks 50,000 tons of soybean meal and 50,000 tons of corn on October 26 for delivery within four months of contract. 

 

DJ
U.S. August Grain Exports-Oct 6

    In
kilograms (top) and in bushels (bottom), except flour in cwt and malt

in
pounds.  /1 denotes includes commercial and donated. Source: U.S. Department

of
Commerce.

 

                               ——-
In Kilograms ——-

                         Aug
20         Jul 20         Jun 20         Aug 19

Barley                 
788,000      6,180,000      2,047,000      3,755,000

Corn
/1           4,539,144,000  4,343,711,000  5,035,249,000  2,825,045,000

Sorghum          
  525,291,000    361,560,000    576,822,000    312,340,000

Oats                 
3,054,087      3,309,254      1,926,717      1,437,887

Rye                    
507,707      1,543,800        885,579      1,220,900

Wheat
/1          2,576,550,118  2,367,853,459  2,283,170,928  2,571,064,128

  wheat
flour /1     24,621,402     22,946,849     23,776,786     25,214,831

Malt                
28,205,171     22,830,290     18,055,175     29,265,120

 

                            ——-
In Bushels, CWT or Pounds ——-

                         Aug
20         Jul 20         Jun 20         Aug 19

Barley                  
36,192        283,842         94,017        172,464

Corn
/1             178,696,372    171,002,593    198,226,963    111,215,968

Sorghum   
          20,679,581     14,233,842     22,708,246     12,296,156

Oats                   
210,408        227,987        132,739         99,061

Rye                     
19,987         60,776         34,863         48,064

Wheat
/1             94,671,039     87,002,828     83,891,310     94,469,465

  wheat
flour /1        542,809        505,891        524,188        555,892

Malt                
62,181,769     50,332,182     39,804,854     64,518,557

1/Includes
commercial and donated.

csstat@dowjones.com

 

 

Updated
9/30/20

  • December
    corn is seen in a $3.60-$4.00 range. 2020-21 to average $3.75 for corn and $2.85 for oats. 

 

 

Soybean
complex
.