PDF Attached

 

USDA
reported 160,020 tons of corn to Mexico.  Traders were are, and still mulling over the data due out this week.  Wildcard is what will USDA report for soybean and corn production at the end of this week, which could trump the recent rally post stocks report. 
With China on holiday, news is steady.  SA weather turned slightly unfavorable and more rain is needed for Argentina. 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

All
figures in percent:








Category

Analyst
average

Analyst
range

USDA
last week

USDA
this week

Corn
harvested

26

23-28

15

25

Corn
condition*

61

61-61

61

62

Soybeans
harvested

36

32-40

20

38

Soybean
condition*

64

63-64

64

64

Winter
wheat planted

50

46-53

35

52

*Percent
good/excellent

(Reporting
by Julie Ingwersen in Chicago
Editing by Matthew Lewis and Richard Pullin)

 

 

WEATHER
ISSUES OF THE DAY

  • Russia’s
    Southern Region remains too dry and no relief is likely for two weeks
  • Kazakhstan
    remains too dry and no relief is expected for two weeks
  • U.S.
    hard red winter wheat areas will be hot and dry this week and may cool down this weekend into next week, but western areas are unlikely to get much rain
  • Northwestern
    U.S. Plains remain quite dry and winter crops are not establishing well
  • No
    change in Argentina dryness is expected from central and northern Cordoba and parts of central Santa Fe to northwestern parts of the nation maintaining worry over winter and spring crops
  • Brazil
    heat and dryness will last through Friday and then some relief is expected during the weekend and especially next week in center west and center south crop areas
  • Western
    Australia is still too dry, although some showers will occur in the far south part of the state late Wednesday into Thursday
  • Queensland,
    Australia still needs significant rain for summer crop planting
  • Tropical
    Storm Gamma will move into the northwestern coast of Yucatan Peninsula during mid-week and will likely dissipate there
    • Heavy
      rain is expected to cause some flooding, but not much crop of world interest comes from the region
  • Tropical
    Storm Delta formed between Jamaica and the Cayman Islands this morning and will move across western Cuba late Tuesday or early Wednesday, become a hurricane in the central Gulf of Mexico later this week and then move inland through southeastern Louisiana Friday
    • The
      system was expected to become a Category Two hurricane by the time it approaches the Louisiana coast
    • The
      storm will move through Alabama and Mississippi and impact parts of Tennessee, Virginia and North Carolina during the weekend
  • China
    will experience less rain this week; including the water logged northeast
  • Central
    India will trend wetter again next week after this week’s grain is greatest in the south and far eastern states
  • South
    Africa weather is slowly improving with rain in the south and east
  • Southeastern
    Canada and the U.S. Great Lakes region will continue wetter biased for several more days and then get a brief break from rain

 

WEATHER
TO WATCH IN MORE DETAIL

  • U.S.
    harvest weather will remain good for the coming week in the Midwest and Great Plains
    • Southeastern
      states harvesting will advance well through mid-week, but could deteriorate with the onset of tropical moisture during the end of this week and the weekend
    • Lower
      and eastern portions of the Delta, Alabama and the remainder of Mississippi as well as eastern Louisiana will be impacted by Tropical Storm Delta eventually
      • The
        storm will damage some additional cotton in Alabama and parts of Mississippi and could negatively impact eastern sugarcane in Louisiana
        • Flooding
          will be widespread from southeastern Louisiana into northern Alabama and southern Tennessee
    • Frontal
      system will bring rain to the Pacific Northwest this weekend and across the Great Plains Sunday into early next week and in the heart of the Midwest during early to mid-week next week.
      • Rain
        totals in the eastern Midwest will range from 0.25 to 0.75 inch  with a few totals to 1.00 inch
      • Rain
        totals in hard red winter wheat areas will be 0.20 to 0.75 inch in the east while many areas in the high Plains region will be dry.
      • Moisture
        totals in the eastern Dakotas, Minnesota and the western Corn Belt will range from 0.30 to 0.80 inch with a few totals of 1.00 to 2.00 inches; wettest in the upper Midwest
      • Rainfall
        in the Pacific Northwest will be less than 0.50 inch in key crop areas while much greater precipitation occurs in western Washington State and in the northern Rocky Mountain region
    • Second
      frontal system will pass through the northern Plains and Midwest mid- to late-week next week
      • Moisture
        totals will vary from 0.10 to 0.60 inch in the Great Lakes region and eastern Midwest while limited rain occurs in the Great Plains and Delta
      • Temperatures
        will turn much colder behind the event
  • U.S.
    temperatures will trend warmer this week until the weekend frontal system arrives
    • Highs
      in the Midwest will rise to the 70s and lower 80s Tuesday into Wednesday
      • Slight
        cooling will occur during the latter part of the week with greater cooling early next week after unusually warm conditions occur briefly during the weekend
    • High
      temperatures in the Plains will be in the 70s and 80s during much of this week with a few 60s briefly Monday, Wednesday and Thursday
      • Extremes
        over 90 will occur daily in the southern half of the Plains during much of this week
    • Cooling
      is expected in the Pacific Northwest late this week after very warm conditions occur early to  mid-week
    • No
      threatening cold nighttime temperatures are expected
  • Russia’s
    Southern Region is still advertised to be mostly dry for the next ten days, but some showers will be possible October 15-22; confidence is very low
    • Most
      of the region was dry during the weekend and very little precipitation was expected in the next week to ten days
  • Ukraine
    and portions of southeastern Europe will receive waves of rain later this week through most of next week
    • Sufficient
      rain will fall to relieve some of the driest areas from dryness
    • Rainfall
      of 0.75 to 2.50 inches and local totals over 4.00 inches may occur by the end of next week
    • Temperatures
      will be warmer than usual in much of the forecast period

 

  • Europe
    will continue to experience waves of rain over the next two weeks, but the intensity in western areas will be much less than that of this past weekend
    • Spain,
      Portugal, Bulgaria and southeastern Romania will be driest with some areas in the Iberian Peninsula staying dry
    • Temperatures
      in western Europe will  be near normal while those in the east are warmer than usual
  • Europe
    weekend rainfall was moderate to heavy in the U.K., western and southern France and northern Italy where rain totals varied from 1.00 to 3.00 inches and locally more
    • More
      than 5.00 inches  of rain fell in northeastern Italy
    • Much
      of eastern Europe was dry
    • Temperatures
      were mild to cool in the west and warm east
  • Western
    CIS weather during the weekend was largely dry with frost and freezes scattering across western and central Russia and northern Kazakhstan
    • The
      freezes were non-threatening
  • Australia
    is not expecting any surprises relative to Friday’s or Sunday’s forecast through the coming week
    • Dry
      weather is expected in much of Western Australia and in the majority of interior Queensland and some locations in northeastern New South Wales
      • Some
        showers will occur in southwestern parts of Western Australia briefly late Wednesday and Thursday
    • Rain
      will fall from eastern South Australia through Victoria and western and southern portions of New South Wales where moisture totals will vary from 0.75 to 1.50 inches and a few totals over 3.00 inches
      • Victoria
        will be wettest
    • Temperatures
      will be seasonable
  • Australia’s
    weekend precipitation was minimal in key crop areas and temperatures were warm
    • Highest
      weekend afternoon temperatures were in the 80s and a few lower 90s Fahrenheit in Queensland, New South Wales and South  Australia while cooler with highs in the 60s and 70s in Western Australia
    • Some
      frost may have occurred in southwestern most Western Australia as low temperatures slipped into the 30s and lower 40s Fahrenheit, but no  permanent crop damage resulted
  • China’s
    Yangtze River Basin reported excessive rainfall during the Friday through Sunday morning period with 3.25 to more than 9.00 inches from eastern Sichuan through Hubei to Jiangsu
    • 11.14
      inches of rain occurred in eastern Hubei
    • Dry
      weather  occurred in the Yellow River Basin and North China Plain as well as the southeastern coastal areas
    • Showers
      occurred in the Northeast Provinces, but rainfall was not more than 0.25 inch through dawn Friday
    • Temperatures
      were very warm to hot in the southeastern provinces while frost and freezes occurred in most of central and western Inner Mongolia
  • China
    weather will improve this week with more limited rainfall in the Northeastern Provinces, Yellow River Basin, North China Plain, east-central provinces and southeastern crop areas
    • Totally
      dry weather is not expected, but rain amounts will be light and infrequent enough to allowing summer crops to mature and for some harvesting and planting to take place
    • Next
      week’s weather will trend wetter in the south of China and in some east-central and  northeastern areas, but not in the Yellow River Basin or North China Plain
    • Temperatures
      will be seasonable this week with a slight warmer bias in the northeast and slight cooler bias in the southeast
  • India
    rain during the weekend was greatest in eastern parts of the nation and along the central west coast and temperatures were warm to hot in the northwest and more seasonable elsewhere
  • India
    will experience frequent rain in the east and south over the next week with central areas trending wetter again next week as well
    • Some
      crop maturation and harvest disruption is expected
    • Northern
      India will continue to be mostly dry favoring summer crop maturation and harvest progress and some winter crop planting
  • Brazil
    rainfall during the weekend occurred from eastern Parana through Rio Grande do Sul into northeastern Santa Fe Argentina with rainfall varying from 0.25 to 1.25 inches; some data from South America was missing during the weekend
    • Argentina
      temperatures were mild to warm and Brazil continued hot in many areas except the far south
      • Extreme
        highs in center west and center south Brazil ranged from 100 to 108 degrees Fahrenheit with an extreme of 110 in Paraguay
  • Brazil
    weather will be dry biased in center west and center south crop areas through Saturday
    • Scattered
      showers develop Sunday and continue daily through most of next week
      • Daily
        rainfall will vary from 0.20 to 0.75 inch with a few 1.00 to 2.00-inch totals
        • The
          greatest rain is expected in Minas Gerais, southern Espirito Santo, Rio de Janeiro and areas south into northeastern Parana
        • A
          few locations in Mato Grosso could also receive a few daily rain totals over 1.00 inch
    • Improved
      soil moisture should support at least some improved topsoil moisture for better soybean and corn planting
      • Some
        improved coffee flowering and pollinating conditions will also occur
      • Citrus
        will flower additionally
      • Sugarcane
        development will become more aggressive as topsoil moisture improves
  • Argentina
    rainfall is expected to be limited over the coming week to ten days with rain most likely in Buenos Aires early and late this week and again early next week
    • Crop
      moisture stress will continue in the driest areas of Cordoba, Santa Fe, Santiago del Estero, western Chaco and areas northwest to Salta
  • South
    America temperatures will be very warm to hot in center west and center south Brazil this week and then cooler next week
    • Argentina
      temperatures will be seasonable during both weeks
  • Southeast
    Asia rainfall during the weekend and that which is expected over the next ten days has been and will be erratic, but all areas will be impacted multiple times in the next two weeks supporting most crop needs
  • Ontario
    and Quebec, Canada reported additional rain during the weekend maintaining wet field conditions
    • Drying
      is needed to promote summer crop maturation and harvest progress and to support wheat planting and establishment
  • Southeastern
    Canada will experience additional rain early this week and then may experience a full week of net drying; temperatures will be seasonable
  • Mexico
    precipitation will be most significant in the far south  of the nation over the coming week to ten days
  • Central
    America will be wetter biased over the next ten days to two weeks further easing long term dryness and possibly delaying early season crop maturation.
  • South 
    Africa weekend weather brought showers to the south and east parts of the nation while dry weather occurred in many other areas
    • Temperatures
      were seasonable
  • Additional
    rain will impact southern and western South Africa over the coming  week
    • The
      precipitation will begin to improve topsoil moisture for spring planting and winter crop reproduction, but greater rain will still be needed

·        
West-central Africa will experience waves of rain through the next ten days favoring coffee, cocoa, sugarcane, rice and other crops

·        
East-central Africa rain will be erratic and light over the next couple of weeks, but most of Uganda, southwestern Kenya and portions of Ethiopia will be impacted while Tanzania is mostly dry

·        
Philippines rain will be widespread over the next ten days to two weeks maintaining a favorable outlook for crops

·        
New Zealand temperatures will be near to below average over the next seven days while precipitation is lighter than usual with the greatest amounts likely along the lower west coast of South Island

  • Southern
    Oscillation Index was +9.90 today and it will stay significantly positive through the coming week

Source: 
World Weather Inc. 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

MONDAY,
Oct. 5:

  • USDA
    weekly corn, soybean, wheat export inspections, 11am
  • U.S.
    crop conditions, harvesting progress for soybeans, corn, cotton, 4pm
  • EU
    weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
  • U.K.
    wheat and barley production estimates
  • Ivory
    Coast cocoa arrivals
  • Malaysia
    Oct. 1-5 palm oil export data
  • ANZ
    Commodity Price
  • HOLIDAY:
    China, some states of Australia

TUESDAY,
Oct. 6:

  • Purdue
    Agriculture Sentiment
  • New
    Zealand global dairy trade auction
  • HOLIDAY:
    China

WEDNESDAY,
Oct. 7:

  • EIA
    U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
  • HOLIDAY:
    China

THURSDAY,
Oct. 8:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • UN
    FAO World Food Price Index
  • India
    SEA-Globoil webinar with Dorab Mistry, Thomas Mielke and James Fry
  • Brazil’s
    Conab releases first report on 2020-21 planted area, output and yield of soy and corn
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • EARNINGS:
    Suedzucker, Agrana
  • HOLIDAY:
    China

FRIDAY,
Oct. 9:

  • USDA’s
    WASDE report with world supply/demand crops update, stockpiles noon
  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • China’s
    CNGOIC to publish monthly soy and corn reports
  • China
    agriculture ministry (CASDE) to release its monthly data on supply and demand
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • Brazil
    Unica cane crush, sugar production (tentative)
  • HOLIDAY:
    Korea

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

USDA
inspections estimates via Reuters     

USDA
inspections versus Reuters trade range                                              

Wheat      
643,671     versus  400000-650000           range

Corn         
863,995     versus  650000-1100000         range

Soybeans  
1,667,068  versus  1050000-1550000       range

 

 

 

GRAINS
INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT

                 
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING OCT 01, 2020

                           
— METRIC TONS —

 

————————————————————————-

                                                  
CURRENT     PREVIOUS 

             ———–
WEEK ENDING ———-  MARKET YEAR  MARKET YEAR

 
GRAIN      10/01/2020  09/24/2020  10/03/2019    TO DATE     TO DATE  

 

BARLEY         
1,397           0       2,994        7,124        8,625 

CORN         
863,995     826,995     473,409    3,667,612    2,025,672 

FLAXSEED           
0           0           0          389           72 

MIXED              
0           0           0            0            0 

OATS               
0           0           0          996          798 

RYE                
0           0           0            0            0 

SORGHUM      
157,647      58,243      88,293      461,755      189,351 

SOYBEANS   
1,667,068   1,296,568   1,052,267    6,600,720    4,206,806 

SUNFLOWER          
0           0           0            0            0 

WHEAT        
643,671     586,916     479,335    9,887,993    9,000,900