PDF Attached

 

USDA
reported 264,000 tons of soybeans to China and 252,000 tons of soybeans to unknown.  Volatile trade.  Soybeans ended lower, meal higher and soybean oil sharply lower. Corn was lower and wheat higher basis Chicago.  President Trump and the first lady tested
positive for coronavirus. 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

5-day

 

SA Week 1 Accum Precipitation (mm) Forecast

 

 

WEEKEND
WEATHER TO WATCH

  • Russia’s
    Southern Region and Kazakhstan will continue quite dry through the middle part of this month and temperatures will be warmer than usual
  • U.S.
    hard red winter wheat areas will be mostly dry through the first half of October as well, although a few showers will be possible close to mid-month
  • Western
    Europe will continue to see waves of rain that will raise the potential for more flooding in France, parts of the United Kingdom, northern Spain and eventually in northern Italy.
  • Argentina
    rainfall will continue erratic and mostly too light in the driest areas to seriously increase soil moisture for improved summer crop planting or winter crop development from central and northern Cordoba and central Santa Fe to western Chaco, Santiago del Estero
    or Salta
  • Northeast
    China will receive additional rain this weekend delaying fieldwork once again; the region has been too wet for weeks, although some improvement has occurred recently to induce a little harvesting
  • Northeastern
    China weather will improve next week with better drying conditions supporting slowly increasing fieldwork
  • China’s
    Yellow River Basin and North China Plain will experience nearly ideal field working conditions during the next two weeks with only  a brief period of light rain expected
  • Southern
    China has been too wet recently and frequent rain through the weekend will perpetuate the situation, but drying is expected late next week and into the following weekend to begin inducing some much-needed improvement
  • Western
    Australia will continue drying down, despite some sporadic light showers from time to time
    • The
      state needs significant rain to bolster soil moisture ahead of winter crop reproduction
  • Queensland,
    Australia is not likely to get much rain until the second week of this month, but rain at that time might start to improve sugarcane conditions and prepare dryland cotton and sorghum fields for planting
  • South
    Australia, Victoria and New South Wales Crops in Australia will remain in very good shape with yield potential for winter crops staying high
  • Brazil’s
    center south and center west crop areas will begin to experience showers and thunderstorms after October 10 and the moisture will be extremely important for early soybean and corn planting, germination and emergence
  • Brazil
    temperatures will continue hot through the next week with some cooling expected with the anticipated increased in rainfall during the period of October 10-16
  • Central
    India has experienced beneficial drying this week favoring better summer crop maturation and early harvest conditions, but rain will return late next week and it may fester for a full week and perhaps longer
    • Rain
      in central India will disrupt summer crop maturation and harvest progress raising some quality concerns for some crops as well as delaying fieldwork
  • Tropical
    depression development near the Yucatan Peninsula today will be closely monitored; the storm will produce heavy rain across the peninsula this weekend and then will be closely monitored for movement next week
    • The
      system is most likely to turn toward the east coast of mainland Mexico, but there is still time for change in its movement therefore warranting a close watch
  • Tropical
    wave moving into the southeastern Caribbean Sea this weekend will be closely monitored for development next week
    • The
      system could threaten the Yucatan Peninsula, Cuba or Florida in a week to ten days from now
  • Hurricane
    Marie in the eastern Pacific Ocean poses no threat to land
  • Central
    America rainfall is expected to be frequent and heavy over the next two weeks thanks to La Nina
    • Long
      term water supply improvements are expected for Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama
  • U.S.
    weather over the coming ten days will be good for harvesting in the Delta, southeastern states and most of the Great Plains
    • Relatively
      good conditions will also occur in the western Corn Belt with a few showers briefly this weekend and greater rainfall Oct. 12
    • Frequent
      showers and drizzle in Great Lakes region into early next week will hinder field progress
    • Midwest
      temperatures will be colder than usual into early next week and then trend warmer
    • West
      Texas will be dry for the next ten days; some rain is possible near mid-month, but confidence is quite low and the impact is not expected to be very great on cotton or other unharvested crops in the region
    • U.S.
      Pacific Northwest rainfall in the next couple of weeks will be greatest in the mountains, but a few showers may bring some needed moisture to the valleys
      • La
        Nina will favor wetter conditions in these areas during the late autumn and winter
    • Southwestern
      U.S. and most of the Rocky Mountain region will be dry biased along with the high Plains region through the next ten days and probably for upwards to two weeks in some areas
    • Warming
      is expected in the eastern U.S. for a while next week and into the following weekend inducing faster drying rates and better harvest conditions for the Great Lakes region and lower eastern Midwest

·        
Indonesia and Malaysia will receive some periodic rain over the next two weeks maintaining a mostly good environment for most crops

·        
Mexico weather will be drier biased over the coming week, but eastern and southern crop areas may trend wetter in the second week of October

·        
West-central Africa will experience waves of rain through the next ten days favoring coffee, cocoa, sugarcane, rice and other crops

·        
East-central Africa rain will be erratic and light over the next couple of weeks, but most of Uganda, southwestern Kenya and portions of Ethiopia will be impacted while Tanzania is mostly dry

·        
Philippines rain will be widespread over the next ten days to two weeks maintaining a favorable outlook for crops

·        
Canada’s Prairies will experience infrequent showers and see warmer than usual temperatures during the next ten days

o  
Showers are most likely in the eastern Prairies most often

·        
Ontario and Quebec, Canada rainfall will occur frequently over the next week while temperatures are mild to cool resulting in delayed summer crop maturation and harvesting

o  
Drier weather will evolve late next week to improve harvest potentials in the following weekend and on into mid-month.

·        
New Zealand temperatures will be near to below average over the next seven days while precipitation diminishes and becomes mostly confined to the lower west coast of South Island

  • Southern
    Oscillation Index was +9.92 today and it will stay significantly positive through the coming week

Source: 
World Weather Inc. 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

MONDAY,
Oct. 5:

  • USDA
    weekly corn, soybean, wheat export inspections, 11am
  • U.S.
    crop conditions, harvesting progress for soybeans, corn, cotton, 4pm
  • EU
    weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
  • U.K.
    wheat and barley production estimates
  • Ivory
    Coast cocoa arrivals
  • Malaysia
    Oct. 1-5 palm oil export data
  • ANZ
    Commodity Price
  • HOLIDAY:
    China, some states of Australia

TUESDAY,
Oct. 6:

  • Purdue
    Agriculture Sentiment
  • New
    Zealand global dairy trade auction
  • HOLIDAY:
    China

WEDNESDAY,
Oct. 7:

  • EIA
    U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
  • HOLIDAY:
    China

THURSDAY,
Oct. 8:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • UN
    FAO World Food Price Index
  • India
    SEA-Globoil webinar with Dorab Mistry, Thomas Mielke and James Fry
  • Brazil’s
    Conab releases first report on 2020-21 planted area, output and yield of soy and corn
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • EARNINGS:
    Suedzucker, Agrana
  • HOLIDAY:
    China

FRIDAY,
Oct. 9:

  • USDA’s
    WASDE report with world supply/demand crops update, stockpiles noon
  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • China’s
    CNGOIC to publish monthly soy and corn reports
  • China
    agriculture ministry (CASDE) to release its monthly data on supply and demand
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • Brazil
    Unica cane crush, sugar production (tentative)
  • HOLIDAY:
    Korea

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

HIS
Markit October update (lower production)

U.S.
2020 corn yield 177.8 versus 179.0 August

Corn
production 14.812 versus 15.036 billion August

U.S.
2020 soybean yield 51.9 versus 52.5 August

Soybean
production 4.294 versus 4.355 billion August

 

 

 

 

 

CFTC
Commitment of Traders

Traditional
funds and Managed Money were much more long for corn and soybeans, and more long for wheat, meal and oil.  Selling last week from harvesting pressure and positioning ahead of the September 1 stocks was not as large as the trade expected.  With fund positions
well more long than expected for corn and soybeans, prices are a little more vulnerable for movement to the downside if funds decide to liquidate positions.  We see this as a bearish indicator. 

 

 

 

 

 

FUTURES
+ OPTS     Managed                 Swaps              Producer

                       
Net        Chg        Net        Chg        Net        Chg

Corn              
106,820     10,908    177,381     -1,832   -307,243     -7,935

Soybeans         
 229,043     17,901    127,487      5,276   -351,874    -13,383

Soymeal            
72,999      7,752     78,425      1,243   -195,229     -4,134

Soyoil             
94,098     -7,604     89,780         73   -220,871     11,514

CBOT
wheat          12,424     -2,119     93,373      3,690   -100,222        596

KCBT
wheat          18,025       -438     42,785     -1,220    -58,714      5,880

MGEX
wheat          -4,830     -2,532      2,801        488        524      1,799

                
———- ———- ———- ———- ———- ———-

Total
wheat         25,619     -5,089    138,959      2,958   -158,412      8,275

 

Live
cattle         62,924      4,925     79,198       -701   -144,287     -2,818

Feeder
cattle          875        165      4,547       -133     -4,188       -787

Lean
hogs           40,807     -2,773     48,597        135    -95,827      3,778

Source:
Reuters, CFTC, and FI

 

 

Macros

US
Aide: Tsy Sec Mnuchin Tests Negative For Covid-19

Trump
And The First Lady Have Tested Positive For Coronavirus

House
Democrats Pass $2.2T Stimulus Republicans Reject

US
Change In Nonfarm Payrolls Sep: 661K (est 850K; prevR 1489K; prev 1371K)

US
Unemployment Rate Sep: 7.9% (est 8.2%; prev 8.4%)

US
Average Hourly Earnings (M/M) Sep: 0.1% (est 0.2%; prevR 0.3%; prev 0.4%)

US
Average Hourly Earnings (Y/Y) Sep: 4.7% (est 4.8%; prevR 4.6%; prev 4.7%)

US
Univ. Of Michigan Sentiment Sep F: 80.4 (est 79.0; prev 78.9)


Current Conditions Sep F: 87.8 (prev 87.5)


Expectations Sep F: 75.6 (prev 73.3)


1 Year Inflation Expectations Sep F: 2.6% (prev 2.7%)


5-10 Year Inflation Expectations Sep F: 2.7% (prev 2.6%)

US
Factory Orders Aug: 0.7% (est 0.9%; prev R 6.5%)


Factory Orders Ex-Transportation Aug: 0.7% (est 1.1%; prev R 2.4%)


Durable Goods Orders Aug F: 0.5% (est 0.4%; prev 0.4%)


Durable Goods Orders Ex-Transportation Aug F: 0.6% (est 0.4%; prev 0.4%)


Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex-Air Aug F: 1.9% (est 1.7%; prev 1.8%)


Cap Goods Ship Non-Defense Ex-Air Aug F: 1.5% (prev 1.5%)

 

 

Corn.

 

Corn
Export Developments

  • Syria
    seeks 50,000 tons of soybean meal and 50,000 tons of corn on October 26 for delivery within four months of contract. 

 

Updated
9/30/20

  • December
    corn is seen in a $3.60-$4.00 range. 2020-21 to average $3.75 for corn and $2.85 for oats. 

 

Soybean
complex
.
 

ARGENTINA
SOY TAX RATE SCHEDULE:



Product

Current

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Soybeans

33%

30%

31.5%

32%

33%

Soy
meal