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US
House Of Representatives Passes Democrats $2.2 Tln Covid Aid Bill

 

USDA
export sales were robust.  Soybeans ended unchanged, corn and meal higher and wheat lower. Soybean was under the defensive from lower energy markets.   

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

 

 

 

CHANGES
OVERNIGHT

  • Russia’s
    Southern Region was advertised to get “some” light rain by the European model run a week from now on October 8-10, but confidence is very low
    • Recent
      research by World Weather, Inc. has revealed a low potential for “significant” rain in Russia’s Southern Region and Kazakhstan through much of October, but especially in the first half of the month
  • Brazil
    rainfall advertised by the GFS model run in the October 10-15 period in center west and center south may be overdone, but “some” showers are expected during that period
    • Greater
      rainfall will have to be delayed a little longer, but a ramping up of precipitation is expected by World Weather, Inc. during the Oct. 16-22 period and the best rainfall this month should occur October 23-31
  • Excessive
    heat in Brazil through October 10 will raise much worry over livestock conditions and early planted corn and other crops
    • Coffee,
      citrus and sugarcane will be stressed as well
    • Frequent
      high temperatures in the 90s to 110 degrees are expected with extremes over 112 possible randomly in center west Brazil
  • Extreme
    highs in Brazil Wednesday were mostly in the range of 100 to 111 degrees Fahrenheit from Mato Grosso do Goias, northern Sao Paulo, Mato Grosso do Sul, western Parana and Paraguay
  • An
    extreme of 115 degrees Fahrenheit occurred in northern Corrientes, Argentina Wednesday
  • Southwestern
    Argentina rainfall potential was raised by the GFS model for San Luis, northern La Pampa, southern Cordoba and northwestern Buenos Aires Oct. 9-11 – some of this predicted rainfall may be exaggerated
  • Northeastern
    China will dry down next week
  • Excellent
    field working conditions will occur in China’s Yellow River Basin and North China Plain over the next ten days
  • Less
    rain was suggested for southern China next week
  • Central
    India rainfall advertised for next week has been delayed until the second half of next week relative to Wednesday’s forecasts
  • Tropical
    Depression is expected to evolve Friday in the northwestern Caribbean Sea that will impact the Yucatan Peninsula during the weekend
    • This
      storm is not being handled very well by the various models with no good agreement on its movement or landfall potential after impacting the Yucatan Peninsula – a close watch on the system is warranted
    • World
      Weather, Inc. favors a westward movement late in the weekend into next week that may bring the system to the east coast of mainland Mexico
  • A
    second tropical disturbance will reach the southeastern Caribbean Sea next week and “may” threaten Cuba or the southeastern United States in ten days
  • Western
    Australia’s best chance for rain will be today and Friday and it may be confined to far southern crop areas and its intensity will be light
  • Southeastern
    Queensland, Australia rainfall advertised for next week by some of the models Wednesday has been removed; the change was needed
  • Overnight
    temperatures in western Saskatchewan, Canada, eastern Alberta and the northwestern U.S. Plains overnight were a little colder than expected, but the impact was minimal since those areas have already experienced a freeze this year
  • Stormy
    weather is expected across western Europe over the next several days with strong wind, heavy rain and flooding expected
    • France,
      the United Kingdom and northern Spain may be most impacted with some impact in Belgium, Netherlands and western Germany late in the weekend

 

  • AREAS
    OF CONCERN AROUND THE WORLD
    • U.S.
      hard red winter wheat areas will be dry for the next ten days to two weeks and temperatures will be warmer than usual
    • Montana
      and South Dakota wheat areas need greater moisture too
    • Russia’s
      Southern Region remains too dry for winter crop planting and will receive very little moisture for the next ten days to two weeks, although some brief showers will occur near the Ukrainian border over the coming week
    • Kazakhstan
      wheat areas are still critically dry in unirrigated areas and rain is unlikely for the next two weeks
    • Northeastern
      China will receive more rain through the weekend delaying fieldwork after some recent improved weather that allowed at least some field progress
      • The
        region has been plagued with frequent rain and flooding since mid-August, but conditions are improving and will improve again next week after the next several days of rain
    • South
      Africa winter crop areas need rain as do future spring planting areas
      • Rain
        is expected in eastern parts of the nation over the next few days, but the west will be drier biased
    • Brazil’s
      center west and center south crop areas will be drier and hotter than usual into at least October 9 further delaying the planting of early soybeans and some corn; however, some showers will occur October 10-16 excessive heat will continue over the next ten
      days as well.
    • Brazil
      coffee areas will experience little to no rain of significance for the next ten days; Some showers are expected October 10-16
    • Brazil
      temperatures will remain very warm to hot over the next ten days especially in center west crop areas where extremes of 100 to 110 Fahrenheit are expected
    • Northwestern
      and west-central Argentina will remain too dry over the next ten days
    • U.S.
      harvest weather looks good

 

UNITED
STATES

  • Dryness
    will continue in the U.S. Plains for at least ten days and probably longer
  • Rain
    in the Midwest will be most frequent and significant in the Great Lakes region where field working delays will be most frequent
  • Improving
    conditions are under way in the U.S. Delta and southeastern states after recent rain
  • Rain
    will fall briefly in the lower Midwest this weekend briefly disrupting fieldwork
  • Another
    wave of rain is possible in the lower Midwest after Oct. 13
  • Temperatures
    are still expected to be cool in the heart of the Midwest into next week while the western U.S. is quite warm
  • Warming
    is expected in the Great Plains next week and it will expand into the Midwest during the middle and latter part of next week

BRAZIL

  • Worry
    over heat and dryness in center west and center south will continue with little to no rain for the next ten days
  • Some
    showers may develop thereafter, but with restricted rainfall resulting for some areas into mid-month
  • Temperature
    will continue hot in many areas

ARGENTINA

  • Rain
    is still not well distributed over the next two weeks, but there will be some precipitation
  • Central
    and northern Cordoba, parts of Santa Fe, Santiago del Estero and other northwestern Argentina crop areas are unlikely to see much rain of significance for at least ten days
  • Temperatures
    will be seasonable to slightly cooler biased

INDIA

  • Rain
    will be greatest in the west-central, south and far eastern parts of the nation
  • Net
    drying in the north and central crop areas
  • Some
    rain will return to central India briefly during the second half of next week

MAINLAND
SOUTHEAST ASIA

  • Near
    to above average rainfall is expected with northern Thailand to Myanmar and Bangladesh wetter than usual

CHINA

  • Frequent
    showers in northeastern China today into next Monday will restrict harvest progress in a part of the region
  • Northeast
    China will trend drier next week
  • Best
    harvesting and planting weather is expected in the Yellow River Basin and North China Plain over next ten days with a mix of rain and sunshine
  • Southern
    China will continue wet with frequent rain near and south of the Yangtze River over the next week and then some beneficial drying is possible

EUROPE

  • Additional
    waves of rain are expected in France and immediate neighboring areas in western Europe over the coming week
    • Excessive
      wind and heavy rain will impact western France, northern Spain and western parts of the United Kingdom late today through the weekend
      • Some
        property damage may result
    • Additional
      high wind speeds and rain may impact the U.K. and northern France late in the weekend and early next week
  • Flooding
    rain may evolve in northern Italy this weekend into next week
  • Rain
    will also fall frequently in western Ukraine, southern Poland and northern Romania into Friday bolstering soil moisture for much improved rapeseed and winter grain establishment
  • A
    favorable mix of showers and sunshine will occur elsewhere in Europe over the next two weeks
  • Temperatures
    will be mild to cool in the west and warm east

WESTERN
CIS

  • Temperatures
    will be warmer than usual in the coming week to ten days
  • Waves
    of rain in central and western Ukraine will diminish Friday, but could return in the far west next week
  • Showers
    in far western Russia, the Baltic States and Belarus will be a low impact on farming activity
  • Limited
    rainfall is expected in the Middle and lower Volga River Basin, Russia’s Southern Region and Kazakhstan over the next ten days
  • Good
    harvest weather will continue in most of the New Lands

AUSTRALIA

  • Brief
    periods of rain will impact Victoria, South Australia and New South Wales during the next ten days to two weeks maintaining good field moisture
  • Western
    Australia will get some brief showers in southern crop areas today into Friday, but more frequent and more significant rain throughout the state is needed to benefit crops
  • Queensland
    will only see some erratic rainfall during the next two weeks and greater moisture is needed to support spring planting

INDONESIA/MALAYSIA

  • Periodic
    rain is expected over the next two weeks maintaining a mostly good environment for most crops

MEXICO/CENTRAL
AMERICA

  • Rain
    will end in southern Mexico briefly over the coming five days while continuing significantly in Central America
    • Southern
      Mexico will turn wetter than usual again in the middle to latter part of next week
  • A
    possible tropical cyclone in the northwestern Caribbean Sea by Friday may impact the Yucatan Peninsula this weekend

WEST-CENTRAL
AFRICA

  • Waves
    of rain will continue through the next ten days favoring coffee, cocoa, sugarcane, rice and other crops

EAST-CENTRAL
AFRICA

  • Rain
    will be erratic and light over the next couple of weeks, but most of Uganda, southwestern Kenya and portions of Ethiopia will be impacted while Tanzania is mostly dry

PHILIPPINES

  • Rain
    will impact most of the nation over the next ten days to two weeks maintaining a favorable outlook for crops

CANADA
PRAIRIES

  • Showers
    will occur most often in the eastern half of the Prairies leaving most other areas dry into the weekend
  • Showers
    will occur in a larger part of the Prairies for a little while next week, but fieldwork will advance around the precipitation
  • Temperatures
    will be near to above average in the west and near to below average in the east

ONTARIO/QUEBEC

  • Rain
    will fall frequently over the next week while temperatures are mild to cool resulting in delayed summer crop maturation and harvesting
  • Drier
    weather will evolve late next week to improve harvest potentials in the following weekend and on into mid-month.

HURRICANE
MARIE REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST OF MEXICO

  • The
    storm will move away from North America and poses no threat to land, although it will become a major hurricane for a while over the next three days

NEW
ZEALAND

  • Temperatures
    will be near to below average over the next seven days while precipitation diminishes and becomes mostly confined to the lower west coast of South Island
  • Southern
    Oscillation Index was +9.99 today and it will stay significantly positive through the coming week

Source:
World Weather Inc. 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

THURSDAY,
Oct. 1:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • USDA
    soybean crush, DDGS output, corn for ethanol, 3pm
  • Australia
    commodity index for Sept.
  • Webinar
    on the effects of climate change on coffee production in Southeast Asia
  • Honduras,
    Costa Rica coffee exports monthly stats
  • International
    Cotton Advisory Committee releases monthly world outlook
  • HOLIDAY:
    China, Hong Kong, Korea

FRIDAY,
Oct. 2:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments
    of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • HOLIDAY:
    China, Hong Kong, India, Korea

MONDAY,
Oct. 5:

  • USDA
    weekly corn, soybean, wheat export inspections, 11am
  • U.S.
    crop conditions, harvesting progress for soybeans, corn, cotton, 4pm
  • EU
    weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
  • U.K.
    wheat and barley production estimates
  • Ivory
    Coast cocoa arrivals
  • Malaysia
    Oct. 1-5 palm oil export data
  • ANZ
    Commodity Price
  • HOLIDAY:
    China, some states of Australia

TUESDAY,
Oct. 6:

  • Purdue
    Agriculture Sentiment
  • New
    Zealand global dairy trade auction
  • HOLIDAY:
    China

WEDNESDAY,
Oct. 7:

  • EIA
    U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
  • HOLIDAY:
    China

THURSDAY,
Oct. 8:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • UN
    FAO World Food Price Index
  • India
    SEA-Globoil webinar with Dorab Mistry, Thomas Mielke and James Fry
  • Brazil’s
    Conab releases first report on 2020-21 planted area, output and yield of soy and corn
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • EARNINGS:
    Suedzucker, Agrana
  • HOLIDAY:
    China

FRIDAY,
Oct. 9:

  • USDA’s
    WASDE report with world supply/demand crops update, stockpiles noon
  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • China’s
    CNGOIC to publish monthly soy and corn reports
  • China
    agriculture ministry (CASDE) to release its monthly data on supply and demand
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • Brazil
    Unica cane crush, sugar production (tentative)
  • HOLIDAY:
    Korea

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

USDA
export sales
proved
to be robust again for soybeans, corn and new-crop meal.  Soybean oil shipment were good.  All-wheat sales slightly topped expectations.  The report was seen supportive all around. 

 

 

 

StoneX
October update (lower production)

U.S.
2020 corn yield 179.0 versus late August 179.6 and 182.4 early August

Corn
production 14.942 versus 15.085 billion late August and 15.320 billion previously

U.S.
2020 soybean yield 52.4 versus 52.9 late August and 54.2 early August

Soybean
production 4.351 versus 4.388 billion late August and 4.496 billion previously

 

Macros

US
Initial Jobless Claims Sep 26: 837K (est 850K; prevR 873K; prev 870K)

US
Continuing Claims Sep 19: 11767K (est 12200K; prevR 12747K; prev 12580K)

US
Personal Income Aug: -2.7% (est -2.5%; prevR 0.5%; prev 0.4%)

US
Personal Spending Aug: 1.0% (est 0.8%; prevR 1.5%; prev 1.9%)

US
Real Personal Spending Aug: 0.7% (est 0.5%; prevR 1.1%; prev 1.6%)

US
PCE Core Deflator (Y/Y) Aug: 1.6% (est 1.4%; prevR 1.4%; prev 1.3%)

US
PCE Core Deflator (M/M) Aug: 0.3% (est 0.3%; prevR 0.4%; prev 0.3%)

US
PCE Deflator (M/M) Aug: 0.3% (est 0.3%; prevR 0.4%; prev 0.3%)

US
PCE Deflator (Y/Y) Aug: 1.4% (est 1.2%; prevR 1.1%; prev 1.0%)

Canadian
Building Permits (M/M) Aug: 1.7% (est 0.0%; prevR -3.0%)

Canadian
MLI Leading Indicator (M/M) Aug: 2.7% (prevR 0.1%; prev 0.3%)

US
ISM Manufacturing Sep: 55.4 (est 56.5; prev 56.0)


ISM New Orders Sep: 60.2 (est 65.2; prev 67.6)


ISM Prices Paid Sep: 62.8 (est 58.8; prev 59.5)


ISM Employment Sep: 49.6 (prev 46.4)

US
Construction Spending (M/M) Aug: 1.4% (est 0.7%; prev 0.1%)

 

Corn.

 

 

Corn
Export Developments

  • Iran
    bought an unspecified amount of corn and soybean meal.  They tendered for 200,000 tons of corn feed and 200,000 tons of soybean meal on Sep 30 for OND shipment.  The corn will be out of the Black or EU or South America. 
  • Syria
    seeks 50,000 tons of soybean meal and 50,000 tons of corn on October 26 for delivery within four months of contract.

 

Updated
9/30/20

  • December
    corn is seen in a $3.60-$4.00 range. (up 20, up 15)  2020-21 to average $3.75 for corn and $2.85 for oats. 

 

Soybean
complex
.