1 stocks were bullish and prices exploded to the upside. USDA export sales will be out Thursday and Friday COT.
one US soybean stocks were reported at 523 million bushels versus USDA’s S&D outlook of 575 million, a huge difference, and 53 million below an average trade guess. Our implied STU is 13.2 percent compared to USDA Sep S&D of 14.7 percent. It’s as if USDA
adjusted their stocks to reduce the negative residual after realizing an unchanged production estimate for 2019. June one soybean stocks were 1.381 billion bushels, 5 less than what was reported three months ago, so unlike corn, September one stocks deviations
from trade do not reflect previous quarters. The soybean stocks are a mystery, but regardless how one interprets it, stocks are tighter and that should reflect higher prices year over year. A 523 carry in for 2020-21, using USDA’s balance sheet, shrinks
the carryout to 408 million bushels.
US corn production was upward revised 3 million bushels to 13.620 billion. Going forward USDA will revise previous year corn production in every September Grain Stocks report. Corn September one stocks of 1.995 billion bushels were reported 255 million below
trade expectations. Note USDA revised previous quarter June one corn stocks by 205 million bushels! A big explanation for the deviation in corn stocks from USDA’s S&D stocks projection of 2.253 billion. Therefore, the trade missed feed/residual demand by
roughly 50 million bushels, in our opinion. But what happened with the previous quarters? We will likely see that question come up in October when USDA typically hosts a statistical conference.
wheat production came in lower than the trade estimate by 15 million bushels to 1.826 billion due to downward revision to winter wheat led by hard red winter. Wheat stocks came in much below trade expectations at 2.159 billion bushels, implying a potential
25 to 50-million-bushel upward revision by USDA to its feed demand in the upcoming supply and demand report.
question both the US 2019 soybean and corn production figures. Corn is at least 200 mil bu too high and soybeans 5-15 million too low.
price projections were revised.
IMPORTANT WEATHER TO WATCH
hard red winter wheat areas will be dry for the next ten days to two weeks and temperatures will be warmer than usual
and South Dakota wheat areas need greater moisture too
Southern Region remains too dry for winter crop planting and will receive no significant moisture for the next ten days to two weeks, although some brief showers will occur near the Ukrainian border over the coming week
wheat areas are still critically dry in unirrigated areas and rain is unlikely for the next two weeks
China continues to receive rain too frequently and summer crop maturation and harvesting remain slow; this pattern will prevail through the weekend and then “some” improvement is expected next week
Africa winter crop areas need rain as do future spring planting areas; rain is expected in eastern parts of the nation, but not in the west
center west and center south crop areas will be drier than usual into the middle of October further delaying the planting of early soybeans and some corn; however, some showers will occur October 10-14
coffee areas will experience little to no rain of significance for the next ten days; Some showers are expected October 10-14
temperatures will remain very warm to hot over the next ten days especially in center west crop areas where extremes of 100 to 110 Fahrenheit are expected
and west-central Argentina will remain too dry over the next ten days
tropical cyclone may form in the northwestern Caribbean Sea later this week and could threaten Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula
has received some rain and more will fall into the weekend to improve winter crop planting and establishment conditions
China has seen some net drying recently and fieldwork may be advancing at a “snail’s pace” with more rain coming
drying will occur the remainder of this week in the U.S. Delta and southeastern states benefiting areas that have been too wet in recent weeks
will continue in the U.S. Plains for at least ten days and probably longer
in the Midwest will be most frequent and significant in the Great Lakes region where field working delays will be most frequent
conditions are likely in the U.S. Delta and southeastern states
will fall briefly in the lower Midwest this weekend briefly disrupting fieldwork
are still expected to be cold in the heart of the Midwest into next week while the western U.S. is quite warm
over dryness in center west and center south will continue with little to no rain for the next ten days
showers may develop thereafter, but with restricted rainfall resulting for some areas into mid-month
will continue hot in many areas
is still not well distributed over the next two weeks, but there will be some precipitation
and northern Cordoba, parts of Santa Fe, Santiago del Estero and other northwestern Argentina crop areas are unlikely to see much rain of significance for at least ten days
will be seasonable to slightly cooler biased
will be greatest in the west-central, south and far eastern parts of the nation
drying in the north and central crop areas
rain will return to central India briefly during the second half of next week
to above average rainfall is expected with northern Thailand to Myanmar and Bangladesh wetter than usual
weather occurred in the northeast Tuesday, but frequent showers today into next Monday will restrict harvest progress in a part of the region
China will trend drier next week
harvesting and planting weather is expected in the Yellow River Basin and North China Plain over next ten days with a mix of rain and sunshine
China will continue wet with frequent rain near and south of the Yangtze River over the next ten days
waves of rain are expected in France and immediate neighboring areas in western Europe over the coming week
wind and heavy rain will impact western France, northern Spain and western parts of the United Kingdom late today through the weekend
property damage may result
high wind speeds and rain may impact the U.K. and northern France late in the weekend and early next week
rain may evolve in northern Poland this weekend into next week
will also fall frequently in western Ukraine, southern Poland and northern Romania into Friday bolstering soil moisture for much improved rapeseed and winter grain establishment
favorable mix of showers and sunshine will occur elsewhere in Europe over the next two weeks
will be mild to cool in the west and warm east
will be warmer than usual in the coming week to ten days
of rain will be greatest in central and western Ukraine where some local flooding might eventually develop (mostly in the west)
in far western Russia, the Baltic States and Belarus will be a low impact on farming activity
rainfall is expected in the Middle and lower Volga River Basin, Russia’s Southern Region and Kazakhstan over the next ten days
harvest weather In New Lands
periods of rain will impact Victoria, South Australia and New South Wales during the next ten days to two weeks maintaining good field moisture
Australia will get some brief showers in southern crop areas Thursday into Friday, but more frequent and more significant rain throughout the state is needed to benefit crops
rain is expected over the next two weeks maintaining a mostly good environment for most crops
will continue greatest from far southern Mexico into Central America
possible tropical cyclone in the northwestern Caribbean Sea by Friday may impact the Yucatan Peninsula this weekend
of rain will continue through the next ten days favoring coffee, cocoa, sugarcane, rice and other crops
will be erratic and light over the next couple of weeks
will impact most of the nation over the next ten days to two weeks maintaining a favorable outlook for crops
will occur most often in the eastern half of the Prairies leaving most other areas dry during the next week
will be near to above average in the west and near to below average in the east
will fall frequently over the next week to ten days while temperatures are mild to cool resulting in delayed summer crop maturation and harvesting
STORM MARIE REMAINS WEST OF MEXICO
storm will move away from North America and poses no threat to land
will trend cooler this week while precipitation diminishes and becomes mostly confined to the west coast of South Island
Oscillation Index was +9.93 today and it will stay significantly positive throughout this week
World Weather Inc.
World Weather Inc.
U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
quarterly corn, soybean, wheat, sorghum, barley and oat stocks
wheat production for Sept.
on Sustainable Palm Oil virtual discussion on seasonal haze
Sept. 1-30 palm oil export data
agricultural prices paid, received for Aug., 3pm
to release grains output data
weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
of Rouen data on French grain exports
soybean crush, DDGS output, corn for ethanol, 3pm
commodity index for Sept.
on the effects of climate change on coffee production in Southeast Asia
Costa Rica coffee exports monthly stats
Cotton Advisory Committee releases monthly world outlook
China, Hong Kong, Korea
Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
weekly update on crop conditions
China, Hong Kong, India, Korea
corn futures hit their highest level since March 6 on massive fund buying post bullish USDA September grain stocks. A massive 205-million-bushel reduction to June 1 corn stocks and better than expected feed usage for the summer quarter sent 2019-20 US ending
stocks below the psychological 2.0 billion mark. (see text page two) Funds ended up buying an estimated net 55,000 contracts. We raised our top end of the December corn trading range to $4.00. December finished today at $3.79, erasing two weeks of losses.
Going forward look for the trade to shift their attention back to weather. Corn contracts were lower to start on follow through harvest pressure. The US weather forecast looks mostly dry through mid-October.
ASF: 2 more cases; 38 cases since September 10
Brazil corn production: 107 [95.0–111] million tons, unchanged from last update.
USDA weekly Broiler Report showed eggs set up 1 percent and chicks placed down 1 percent. Cumulative placements from the week ending January 4, 2020 through September 26, 2020 for the United States were 7.25 billion. Cumulative placements were down 1 percent
from the same period a year earlier.
weekly ethanol production fell 25,000 barrels to 881,000 and stocks drew 306,000 to 19.691 million. Production was at its lowest since week ending June 12, but still up from the year to date low 537,000 barrels posted 4/24. The 4-week average change in stocks
is 298,000 barrels, a signal declining stocks could correct low production.
Note the 19.691 million-barrel stocks figure is at its lowest level since December 30, 2016.
A Bloomberg poll looked for weekly US ethanol production to be up 6,000 stocks to increase 139,000.
awaited: Iran seeks 200,000 tons of corn feed and 200,000 tons of soybean meal on Sep 30 for OND shipment. The corn will be out of the Black or EU or South America.
corn is seen in a $3.60-$4.00 range. (up 20, up 15) 2020-21 to average $3.75 for corn and $2.85 for oats.