PDF Attached

 

Most
agriculture markets drifted lower on harvesting pressure and positioning ahead of the USDA September 30 reports.  Bear spreading was a feature. 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

MOST
IMPORTANT WEATHER TO WATCH

  • AREAS
    OF CONCERN
    • U.S.
      hard red winter wheat areas will be dry for the next ten days to two weeks and excessive heat and dryness has already depleted soil moisture
    • Montana
      and South Dakota wheat areas need greater moisture too
    • Russia’s
      Southern Region remains too dry for winter crop planting, although some brief showers will occur near the Ukrainian border over the coming week
    • Kazakhstan
      wheat areas are still critically dry in unirrigated areas and rain is unlikely for the next two weeks
    • Northeastern
      China continues to receive rain too frequently and summer crop maturation and harvesting remain slow, despite some weekend drying
    • South
      Africa winter crop areas need rain as do future spring planting areas
    • Brazil’s
      center west and center south crop areas will be drier than usual into the middle of October further delaying the planting of early soybeans and some corn
    • Brazil
      coffee areas will experience little to no rain of significance for the next ten days
    • Brazil
      temperatures will remain very warm to hot over the next ten days
    • Northwestern
      and west-central Argentina will remain too dry over the next ten days
    • Flooding
      rain may impact a part of far southern Mexico and Central America in the next ten days to two weeks
    • A
      tropical cyclone may form in the Caribbean Sea later this week and could threaten Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula
    • Northeastern
      China’s weather will become wetter biased again Wednesday through the weekend and drier next week
  • AREAS
    OF IMPROVEMENT
    • Ukraine
      has received some rain and more will fall over the coming week to improve winter crop planting and establishment conditions
    • Northeastern
      China has seen some net drying recently and fieldwork may be advancing at a “snail’s pace” with more rain coming
    • Net
      drying will occur the remainder of this week in the U.S. Delta and southeastern states benefiting areas that have been too wet in recent weeks

 

UNITED
STATES

  • Dryness
    will continue in the U.S. Plains for at least ten days and probably longer
  • Rain
    in the Midwest will be most frequent and significant in the Great Lakes region where field working delays will be most frequent
  • Improving
    conditions are likely in the U.S. Delta and southeastern states
  • Temperatures
    are still expected to be cold in the heart of the Midwest into next week while the western U.S. is quite warm

BRAZIL

  • Worry
    over dryness in center west and center south will continue with little to no rain for the next ten days
  • Some
    showers may develop thereafter, but with restricted rainfall resulting for some areas into mid-month
  • Temperature
    will continue hot in many areas

ARGENTINA

  • Rain
    is still not well distributed over the next two weeks, but there will be some precipitation
  • Central
    and northern Cordoba, parts of Santa Fe, Santiago del Estero and other northwestern Argentina crop areas are unlikely to see much rain of significance for at least ten days
  • Temperatures
    will be seasonable to slightly cooler biased

INDIA

  • Rain
    will be greatest in the west-central, south and far eastern parts of the nation
  • Net
    drying in the north and central crop areas

 

MAINLAND
SOUTHEAST ASIA

  • Nearly
    to above average rainfall is expected with northern Thailand to Myanmar and Bangladesh wetter than usual

CHINA

  • Showers
    returned to the northeast Monday where some new disruption to net drying and farming activity resulted
  • Rain
    also occurred Monday in the middle Yangtze River Basin
  • Northeast
    China will be dry today, but frequent showers Wednesday into next Monday will restrict harvest progress in a part of the region
  • Northeast
    China trends drier next week
  • Best
    harvesting and planting weather is expected in the Yellow River Basin and North China Plain over next ten days with a mix of rain and sunshine
  • Southern
    China will continue wet with frequent rain near and south of the Yangtze River over the next ten days

EUROPE

  • Additional
    waves of rain are expected in France and immediate neighboring areas in western Europe over the coming week
    • Excessive
      wind and heavy rain will impact France, northwestern Spain and northern Portugal late Thursday and Friday
      • Some
        property damage may result
    • Additional
      high wind speeds and rain may impact the U.K. and northern France late in the weekend and early next week
  • Rain
    will also fall frequently in western Ukraine, southern Poland and northern Romania during the coming week
  • A
    favorable mix of showers and sunshine will occur elsewhere over the next two weeks
  • Temperatures
    will be mild to cool in the west and warm east

WESTERN
CIS

  • Temperatures
    will be warmer than usual in the coming week to ten days
  • Waves
    of rain will be greatest in central and western Ukraine where some local flooding might eventually develop (mostly in the west)
  • Showers
    in far western Russia, the Baltic States and Belarus will be a low impact on farming activity
  • Limited
    rainfall is expected in the Middle and lower Volga River Basin, Russia’s Southern Region and Kazakhstan over the next ten days
  • Good
    harvest weather In New Lands

AUSTRALIA

  • Brief
    periods of rain will impact Victoria, South Australia and New South Wales during the next ten days to two weeks maintaining good field moisture
  • Western
    Australia will get some brief showers in southern crop areas Thursday into Friday; more rain would benefit the state’s crops

INDONESIA/MALAYSIA

  • Periodic
    rain is expected over the next two weeks maintaining a mostly good environment for most crops

MEXICO/CENTRAL
AMERICA

  • Rain
    will continue greatest from far southern Mexico into Central America
  • A
    possible tropical cyclone in the northwestern Caribbean may impact the Yucatan Peninsula this weekend

WEST-CENTRAL
AFRICA

  • Waves
    of rain will continue through the next ten days favoring coffee, cocoa, sugarcane, rice and other crops

EAST-CENTRAL
AFRICA

  • Rain
    will be erratic and light over the next couple of weeks

PHILIPPINES

  • Rain
    will impact most of the nation over the next ten days to two weeks maintaining a favorable outlook for crops

CANADA
PRAIRIES

  • Showers
    will occur most often in the eastern half of the Prairies and in the Peace River Region leaving most other areas dry during the next week to ten days
  • Temperatures
    will be near to above average in the west and near to below average in the east

ONTARIO/QUEBEC

  • Rain
    will fall frequently over the next week to ten days while temperatures are mild to cool resulting in delayed summer crop maturation and harvesting

TYPHOON
KUJIRA

  • Was
    located over open water well east of Japan and posing no threat to land

TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 18E WEST OF MEXICO

  • The
    storm will move away from North America and poses no threat to land

NEW
ZEALAND

  • Conditions
    will trend cooler this week while precipitation diminishes and becomes mostly confined to the west coast of South Island
  • Southern
    Oscillation Index was +10.10 today and it will stay significantly positive throughout this week

Source:
World Weather Inc. 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

WEDNESDAY,
Sept. 30:

  • EIA
    U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
  • USDA
    quarterly corn, soybean, wheat, sorghum, barley and oat stocks
  • U.S.
    wheat production for Sept.
  • Roundtable
    on Sustainable Palm Oil virtual discussion on seasonal haze
  • Malaysia
    Sept. 1-30 palm oil export data
  • U.S
    agricultural prices paid, received for Aug., 3pm
  • Poland
    to release grains output data
  • HOLIDAY:
    Korea

THURSDAY,
Oct. 1:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • USDA
    soybean crush, DDGS output, corn for ethanol, 3pm
  • Australia
    commodity index for Sept.
  • Webinar
    on the effects of climate change on coffee production in Southeast Asia
  • Honduras,
    Costa Rica coffee exports monthly stats
  • International
    Cotton Advisory Committee releases monthly world outlook
  • HOLIDAY:
    China, Hong Kong, Korea

FRIDAY,
Oct. 2:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • HOLIDAY:
    China, Hong Kong, India, Korea

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

Note
Reuters polled for 2019 corn production.  We think it will be unchanged.  Reuters average was 13.607 billion bu versus 13.617 USDA, so others also not looking for change (range 13.427-13.750 billion for those looking for a change). 

Average
estimates for 2019-20 ending stocks for September 1 don’t deviate much from USDA

USDA
Aug 2019-20 corn carry 2.253 (ave. est. 3 bushels below USDA)

USDA
Aug 2019-20 soy carry 0.575 (ave. est. 1 bushel above USDA)

 

Macros

US
Conference Board Consumer Confidence Sep: 101.8 (est 90.0; prev 84.8)


Present Situation Sep: 98.5 (prev 84.2)


Expectations Sep: 104.0 (prev 85.2)

US
Wholesale Inventories (M/M) Aug P: 0.5% (est -0.1%; prevR -0.1%; prev -0.3%)

US
Advance Goods Trade Balance Aug: -$82.9B (est -$81.8B; prevR -$80.1B)

US
Retail Inventories (M/M) Aug: 0.8% (est 1.1%; prev 1.2%)

Canadian
Industrial Product Price (M/M) Aug: 0.3% (est 0.1%; prev 0.7%)

Canadian
Raw Materials Price Index (M/M) Aug: 3.2% (prev 3.0%)

 

Corn.

  • China
    warned La Nina may bring colder winter and frost in the corn region. 
  • We
    picked up that Thunder Bay port authority (Canada) reported grain volume increased 27 percent this year, and precited 10 million tons for 2020, largest since 1997. 
  • South
    Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) estimated corn production at 15.422 million tons (6.620 yellow and 8.802 million tons white) in 2019-20, slightly lower than previous month, 37% higher compared with 11.275 million tons 2018-19.  August was pegged at
    15.537 million tons. A Reuters survey was at 15.271 million tons for the Sep estimate. 
  • Germany
    ASF:  36 cases since September 10
  • The
    CME plans to launch pork futures on November 9.  “Pork Cutout futures and options will be financially-settled to the CME Pork Cutout Index, which is a five-business day weighted average of prices reported by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) and published
    in its “National Daily Pork Report Fob Plant – Negotiated Sales – Afternoon” report daily.”

https://www.cmegroup.com/media-room/press-releases/2020/9/29/cme_group_to_launchporkcutoutfuturesandoptionsonnovember9.html

  • A
    Bloomberg poll looks for weekly US ethanol production to be up 6,000 at 912,000 barrels (890-931 range) from the previous week and stocks to increase 139,000 barrels to 20.136 million.

 

Today
in Energy: U.S. fuel ethanol production capacity increased by 3% in 2019

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=45316

 

Corn
Export Developments

  • Iran
    seeks 200,000 tons of corn feed and 200,000 tons of soybean meal on Sep 30 for OND shipment.  The corn will be out of the Black or EU or South America. 

 

 

 

 

 

Updated
9/9/20

  • December
    is seen in a $3.40-$3.85 range.  2020-21 to average $3.75 for corn and $2.85 for oats. 

 

Soybean
complex
.
 

 

Oilseeds
Export Developments

  • Today
    the USDA CCC was in for 22,000 tons of soybeans for Egypt and 14,000 tons of soybean meal for Georgia for Nov 10-20 shipment.  They were also in for 260 tons of veg oils for in part Congo (Nov 1-15 shipment). 
  • Iran
    seeks 200,000 tons of corn feed and 200,000 tons of soybean meal on Sep 30 for OND shipment.  Soybean meal will be out of Brazil, Argentina and/or India. 
  • Under
    the 24-hour reporting system, US exporters reported the following:
    • Export
      sales of 100,000 tons of soybeans for delivery to Mexico during the 2020/2021 marketing year

 

 

 

Updated
9/23/20

  • November
    soybeans are seen in a $9.75-$10.50 range.   $9.60 average for 2020-21
  • December
    soybean meal is seen in a $310-$350 range.    $305 average for 2020-21
  • December
    soybean oil is seen in a 32.50-35.50 range.     34.00 cents average for 2020-21