PDF Attached

 

USD
was down 37 by 2:30 PM CT, WTI up $0.34, gold $20.20 higher and US equities higher.  Lower trade for soybeans and meal, mainly positioning, while wheat corn and soybean oil were higher. 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MOST
IMPORTANT WEATHER TO WATCH

  • AREAS
    OF CONCERN
    • U.S.
      hard red winter wheat areas will be dry for the next ten days to two weeks and excessive heat and dryness has already depleted soil moisture
    • Montana
      and South Dakota wheat areas need greater moisture too
    • Russia’s
      Southern Region remains too dry for winter crop planting, although some brief showers will occur near the Ukrainian border over the coming week
    • Kazakhstan
      wheat areas are still critically dry in unirrigated areas and rain is unlikely for the next two weeks
    • Northeastern
      China continues to receive rain too frequently and summer crop maturation and harvesting remain slow, despite some weekend drying
    • South
      Africa winter crop areas need rain as do future spring planting areas
    • Brazil’s
      center west and center south crop areas will be dry into the middle of October further delaying the planting of early soybeans and some corn
    • Brazil
      coffee areas will experience little to no rain of significance for the next ten days and possibly out two weeks
    • Brazil
      temperatures will remain very warm to hot over the next ten days
    • Northwestern
      and west-central Argentina will remain too dry over the next ten days
    • Flooding
      rain may impact a part of far southern Mexico and Central America in the next ten days to two weeks
    • A
      tropical cyclone may form in the Caribbean Sea later this week
    • Frost
      and freezes occurred in a part of eastern Australia Sunday and today
  • AREAS
    OF IMPROVEMENT
    • Southern
      Argentina received significant weekend rain easing dryness and improving crop and field working potentials
    • Rain
      fell in much of Europe easing long term dryness in several areas and more is expected
    • Ukraine
      has received some rain and more will fall over the coming week to improve winter crop planting and establishment conditions
    • Net
      drying is expected later this week in the U.S. Delta and southeastern states benefiting areas that have been too wet in recent weeks
  • Frost
    and a few light freezes in eastern Australia wheat, barley and canola areas Sunday and today likely had  low impact on the majority of crops, but an assessment of the impact will be needed
    • Most
      lows were in the 30s and lower 40s Fahrenheit and some of the crop in New South Wales was in a sensitive state of development
      • World
        Weather, Inc. anticipates a very low impact, but some negative impact cannot be ruled out of a few areas
  • Argentina
    received some much needed rain late last week and during the weekend easing long term dryness in the south, but the north was left hot and dry
    • Rainfall
      of 1.50 to 4.63 inches occurred Thursday through dawn today from a part of northern La Pampa and southeastern Cordoba to northern and central Buenos Aires, including southernmost Santa Fe and southernmost Entre Rios.
    • Rainfall
      farther south in southern Buenos Aires varied from 0.50 to 1.50 inches except near the coast of Buenos Aires east of Bahia Blanca where 0.35 to 0.50 inch resulted
    • The
      rain was excellent in bolstering soil moisture for much improved wheat and barley development and improved early season corn and sunseed planting potentials
    • Northern
      Argentina reported very little rain and was warm to hot temperatures with extreme highs in the 90s to 110 degrees Fahrenheit
      • The
        heat accelerated drying and raised the need for significant rain in cotton, corn, sunseed and other crop areas
  • Argentina
    rainfall over the next couple of weeks will favor the northeast part of the nation, although some other areas will get a few showers
    • Resulting
      rainfall will not be very great in central, southern or western areas and more moisture will be needed
    • Drought
      will remain a serious concern in central and northern Cordoba, Santiago del Estero, parts of Santa Fe and neighboring areas
    • October
      7-8 is the earliest opportunity for follow up rain in the previously driest areas in central and southern parts of the nation
  • Brazil
    weekend temperatures were hot in the central and west with extreme highs in the 90s to 108 degrees Fahrenheit
    • Most
      of the nation was dry except in central and southern Rio Grande do Sul where 0.15 to 1.10 inches resulting
      • Southern
        corn and rice areas were wettest
  • Brazil
    weather over the next ten days will be dry in the bulk of center west and center south production areas
    • Rain
      will fall in northwestern Mato Grosso periodically and may benefit some early season soybean planting, but the bulk of the state will be left dry
    • Far
      southern Brazil will continue to experience waves of rain during the next couple of weeks maintaining moisture abundance for reproducing and filling wheat and supporting early corn and rice planting and development
    • Some
      wheat areas will be trending a little wet and need to dry down to protect crop quality
  • Europe
    rainfall during the weekend increased as expected with precipitation noted from western Ukraine, Poland and parts of Romania west to France, far northern parts of Spain and Belgium
    • Sufficient
      rain fell to improve soil moisture in many previously dry areas, but more rain is needed
    • Rain
      is expected to fall additionally over the next ten days in most of Europe
      • France,
        Belgium and the U.K. may experience heavy rainfall at times while Germany, western Poland and Czech Republic as well as the middle and lower Danube River Basin will receive the least amounts of rain
    • Planting
      moisture will continue to increase
      • Some
        dry time will be needed to promote autumn planting and summer crop harvesting
  • Ukraine
    will get enough rain in the coming week to ten days to support planting of wheat, barley, rye and rapeseed
    • Improved
      winter crop establishment is expected in those areas already planted
    • A
      much improved winter crop production outlook will result, although more rain will be needed in October to ensure moisture deficits are significantly eased
  • Russia
    weather over the next ten days will be drier biased except near the Baltic States, Belarus and Ukraine borders where some rain is expected
    • Showers
      will also occur in the eastern New Lands
    • Net
      drying is expected over most of the Volga River Basin, Ural Mountains region, Kazakhstan and Russia’s Southern Region
    • Good
      harvest conditions will occur during this dry period and more autumn planting will take place, although the driest areas in southern areas will limit any new wheat and rye planting and emergence
  • China
    rain fell from Sichuan to Fujian and areas southwest into Indochina during the weekend
    • Moisture
      totals were greatest from Sichuan to southern Jiangxi where 2.00 to 4.00 inches common and local totals to nearly 7.00 inches in Hunan
    • Net
      drying occurred in other areas of China including east-central through northeastern areas
      • The
        drying trend was welcome and beneficial, but it may be short-lived
  • Northeastern
    China will be facing another week to ten days of frequent rainfall limiting summer crop maturation and harvest progress
    • Recent
      drying was welcome, but returning rain, although not heavy, will prevent the region from drying out beneficially for aggressive fieldwork
    • A
      more prolonged period of dry and warm weather is needed to get harvesting back on track after recent weeks of wet conditions
    • A
      favorable mix of rain and sunshine will occur in the North China Plain and Yellow River Basin where good wheat planting and summer crop harvest progress is expected
    • Rain
      will fall frequently in southern China maintaining wet conditions, but flood potentials should be low
  • Xinjiang
    China weather contrasted greatly during the weekend with frost and freezes in the northeast where highs were limited to the upper 40s and lower 50s with very warm conditions elsewhere with peak temperatures reaching into the lower to middle 80s and lows in
    the 50s Fahrenheit
    • Mostly
      dry weather prevailed throughout the province
  • Xinjiang,
    China weather this week will trend cooler farther to the south, but frost and freeze conditions will be limited to the northeast
    • The
      cold is not a threat to cotton which has already been defoliated and the crop is being harvested
    • Rainfall
      should be limited to spotty showers that will not harm fiber quality
  • Southeastern
    Australia will experience waves of rain through the next two weeks benefiting long term wheat, barley and canola development
    • Queensland’s
      greatest rain will occur next week
    • New
      South Wales, Victoria and South Australia will be wettest and should have excellent long term crop prospects
  • Southern
    portions of Western Australia will get some light rainfall early and again late this week, although moisture totals will not be more than 0.50 inch and the precipitation will not reach into northern crop areas
    • Greater
      rain would be welcome, but sufficient amounts will occur to support favorable pre-reproductive crop development
    • Northern
      yield potentials may have slipped a little lower than usual, but losses are not dramatic
  • Australia’s
    weekend rainfall varied from 0.05 to 0.50 inch in New South Wales, Victoria and southern parts of Western Australia
    • Several
      local totals of 1.00 to 1.48 inches occurred from the southern border of New South Wales into Victoria
    • Queensland
      was dry along with minor crop areas in northern and eastern parts of Western Australia and western parts of South Australia’s crop region
  • U.S.
    weather provided no surprises during the weekend
    • Rain
      was limited to the northern and western parts of the Midwest
      • Moisture
        totals through Sunday varied from 0.05 to 0.73 inch from northern Missouri through eastern and southern Iowa to parts of Wisconsin
      • Greater
        rain fell in upper Michigan where 1.00 to 2.00 inches of moisture resulted
      • Greater
        rain also occurred from northeastern Kansas through west-central Missouri where 1.00 to 2.00 inches resulted
      • A
        trace to 0.25 inch and a few local totals to 0.50 inch occurred in the upper Midwest and northern Plains, although many of these areas did not receive much meaningful rain
      • Dry
        conditions occurred in the central and eastern Midwest and Delta
    • Some
      welcome drying occurred in the southeastern states after rain from remnants of Tropical Cyclone Beta passed through the region early in the weekend
      • Rainfall
        of 1.00 to 3.60 inches occurred from coastal areas of Georgia to central Virginia from rain Friday into Saturday
    • Mostly
      dry weather occurred in other U.S. crop areas
    • Temperatures
      were very warm to hot Friday into Saturday in the central and southwestern Plains with extremes of 95 to 102 degrees Fahrenheit which is well above normal for this time of year
      • Temperatures
        were more seasonable in many other areas
  • U.S.
    weather outlook has not changed for the coming ten days
    • Temperatures
      will be quite cool in the eastern half of the nation over this coming week with the cool conditions lingering a total of ten days
    • Waves
      of light rain and drizzle will impact the Great Lakes region during much of the forecast period
    • Rain
      in the lower eastern Midwest and Delta will occur today and a few other showers will occur periodically in other days this week and early next week in Indiana, Ohio and eastern Illinois as weak disturbances occur periodically
    • Summer
      crop harvesting will be very slow in the Great Lakes region
    • Summer
      crop harvesting will be disrupted periodically in the lower eastern Midwest
    • Best
      crop maturation and harvest weather is expected in the Great Plains and Delta during the next ten days
    • Dry
      weather will also occur in the far western United States during much of the coming ten days with temperatures well above average
    • Very
      little rain of significance will impact western hard red winter wheat areas where temperatures will be mild early this week and then rising above average later this week into next week
    • Low
      soil moisture is expected in most of the high Plains region during the next ten days raising concern over early wheat establishment in unirrigated fields
    • West
      Texas cotton, corn, sorghum and peanut areas will not be impacted by much precipitation over the next ten days which should protect cotton fiber quality and support normal maturation
  • GFS
    and European forecast model runs are suggesting tropical cyclone development in the Caribbean Sea next week that might eventually threaten the southeastern United States and/or Cuba, but this event is too far out in the forecast for much confidence
  • No
    active tropical cyclones are present in the world today
  • Western
    South Africa received a few showers during the weekend benefiting some of the winter crops in that region
    • Rain
      also occurred in eastern Natal
  • South
    Africa weekend temperatures were very warm to hot in Limpopo while frost and freezes occurred in Free State, North West and other western parts of the nation
  • India’s
    weekend rain was greatest in the far Eastern States and Bangladesh as well as in the interior south while net drying occurred elsewhere
    • Some
      flooding occurred in northern Bangladesh and neighboring areas of India
    • The
      drier bias was ideal for inducing some crop maturation
    • Temperatures
      were very warm to hot in the interior north and northwest
  • Pakistan
    weather was also mostly dry and warm to hot during the weekend
  • India
    rain will continue to withdraw from central areas over the coming week while periods of rain prevail in the far eastern and extreme southern parts of the nation during the next ten days
    • Summer
      crop maturation and early harvest progress will advance favorably
  • Ontario
    and Quebec, Canada may get rain a little more frequently than desired this week and lasting at least a week and possibly for ten days resulting in some crop maturation and harvest delays
  • West-central
    Africa will continue to experience periodic showers and thunderstorms over the next couple of weeks
    • Cotton
      areas will need to dry out soon to protect fiber quality and promote maturation
    • Most
      coffee, cocoa, rice and sugarcane crops receiving rain will likely benefit from the moisture
      • Weekend
        rain was most significant in Ghana, eastern Nigeria and Cameroon
  • East
    central Africa rainfall has been and will continue to be erratic and mostly beneficial over the next ten days
  • Mainland
    areas of Southeast Asia will experience periodic showers and thunderstorms over the next couple of weeks
    • Late
      season moisture boosting is extremely important since water supply has not been fully restored from last year’s low levels
  • Philippines
    rainfall will continue periodically benefiting most crops.
  • Improving
    rainfall in Indonesia and Malaysia is expected over the next two weeks with some locally heavy rain possible in random locations especially in the first week of October
  • New
    Zealand rainfall will be erratic over the next two weeks while temperatures are cooler than usual
    • Soil
      moisture is rated favorably
  • Mexico
    precipitation is expected to be confined to the far south over the next week while all other areas experience net drying
  • Frequent
    rain will continue in Central America maintaining good crop conditions over the next two weeks
    • A
      few areas will get too much rain resulting in local flooding
  • Southern
    Oscillation Index was +10.63 today and it will stay significantly positive throughout this week

Source:
World Weather Inc. 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

MONDAY,
Sept. 28:

  • USDA
    weekly corn, soybean, wheat export inspections, 11am
  • U.S.
    crop conditions, harvesting progress for soybeans, corn, cotton, 4pm
  • FT
    Commodities Global Summit (Sept. 28-30)
  • EU
    weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
  • Ivory
    Coast cocoa arrivals
  • EARNINGS:
    Louis Dreyfus

TUESDAY,
Sept. 29:

  • Nothing
    major scheduled

WEDNESDAY,
Sept. 30:

  • EIA
    U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
  • USDA
    quarterly corn, soybean, wheat, sorghum, barley and oat stocks
  • U.S.
    wheat production for Sept.
  • Roundtable
    on Sustainable Palm Oil virtual discussion on seasonal haze
  • Malaysia
    Sept. 1-30 palm oil export data
  • U.S
    agricultural prices paid, received for Aug., 3pm
  • Poland
    to release grains output data
  • HOLIDAY:
    Korea

THURSDAY,
Oct. 1:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • USDA
    soybean crush, DDGS output, corn for ethanol, 3pm
  • Australia
    commodity index for Sept.
  • Webinar
    on the effects of climate change on coffee production in Southeast Asia
  • Honduras,
    Costa Rica coffee exports monthly stats
  • International
    Cotton Advisory Committee releases monthly world outlook
  • HOLIDAY:
    China, Hong Kong, Korea

FRIDAY,
Oct. 2:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • HOLIDAY:
    China, Hong Kong, India, Korea

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

USDA
inspections versus Reuters trade range                                            

Wheat            
563,427           versus  400000-650000           range

Corn               
806,639           versus  650000-900000           range

Soybeans        
1,211,733        versus  1100000-1400000       range

 

 

 

GRAINS
INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT

                 
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING SEP 24, 2020

                           
— METRIC TONS —

 

————————————————————————-

                                                  
CURRENT     PREVIOUS 

             ———–
WEEK ENDING ———-  MARKET YEAR  MARKET YEAR

 
GRAIN      09/24/2020  09/17/2020  09/26/2019    TO DATE     TO DATE  

 

BARLEY             
0           0       2,595        5,727        5,631 

CORN      
   806,639     765,589     421,735    2,783,261    1,552,263 

FLAXSEED           
0           0           0          389           72 

MIXED              
0           0           0            0            0 

OATS               
0          48           0          996          798 

RYE                
0           0           0            0            0 

SORGHUM       
58,243      71,501      15,383      304,108      101,058 

SOYBEANS   
1,211,733   1,379,971     986,305    4,848,745    3,154,539 

SUNFLOWER          
0           0           0            0            0 

WHEAT        
563,427     503,034     502,915    9,220,833    8,521,565 

Total      
2,640,042   2,720,143   1,928,933   17,164,059   13,335,926 

CROP
MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND

FLAXSEED; 
SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.

INCLUDES
WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

 

Image

https://twitter.com/kannbwx/status/1308782975060832260?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1308782975060832260%7Ctwgr%5Eshare_3&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ffarmpolicynews.illinois.edu%2F2020%2F09%2Fchinas-agricultural-imports-up-from-last-year%2F

 

Note
Reuters polled for 2019 corn production.  We think it will be unchanged.  Reuters average was 13.607 billion bu versus 13.617 USDA, so others also not looking for change (range 13.427-13.750 billion for those looking for a change). 

Average
estimates for 2019-20 ending stocks for September 1 don’t deviate much from USDA

USDA
Aug 2019-20 corn carry 2.253 (ave. est. 3 bushels below USDA)

USDA
Aug 2019-20 soy carry 0.575 (ave. est. 1 bushel above USDA)

 

Macros

 

Corn.

  • Funds
    bought an estimated net 8,000 corn contracts.