PDF Attached

 

Soybeans,
meal, SBO and corn closed higher on Friday while wheat futures were lower. 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

La
Nina is adding to the dry situation across US hard winter wheat country.  US Great Plains tends to see drier than normal conditions.  South America weather during La Nina events includes less than usual rainfall in eastern Argentina, Uruguay, southern Paraguay
and Rio Grande do Sul during the late spring and summer months. 

 

 

 

Last
seven days

 

 

MOST
IMPORTANT WEATHER TO WATCH

  • Argentina
    received some much needed rain overnight in interior northern parts of Buenos Aires where 0.30 to 1.00 was common and local totals over 2.00 inches
    • Lighter
      rain fell in a few neighboring areas
    • Improved
      soil moisture for wheat development and future planting of corn and sunseed resulted with more expected
  • Southern
    and eastern Argentina will get some additional very important rain today into the weekend improving topsoil moisture in many areas from La Pampa and southern Cordoba to Buenos Aires and in portions of both Santa Fe and Entre Rios
    • Follow
      up rainfall is not likely to be very frequent or significant leading to net drying conditions, but it may be a good opportunity for early season fieldwork and wheat development
    • Temperatures
      will be mild to warm
  • Dryness
    will continue in northern Cordoba, central and northwestern Santa Fe, Santiago de Estero and portions of western Chaco, Argentina during the next ten days to two weeks; some rain in northern cotton areas in the nation will allow some planting to begin
  • Central
    and western Ukraine will receive some much needed rain in the coming week to ten days with some of it being heavy 1.00 to 3.00 inches and local totals over 4.00 inches will occur with far western areas and neighboring areas of southeastern Poland, eastern
    Slovakia  and northern Romania also being impacted with some potential for flooding
    • Eastern
      Ukraine will also get a some needed rain Sunday into Wednesday with rainfall of 0.20 to 0.70 inch and local totals to 1.50 inches
    • Greater
      rain will be needed in eastern Ukraine while western areas will see improved rapeseed, wheat, barley and rye planting and establishment, although some delay to fieldwork will be possible
  • Flooding
    may occur in various locations in eastern Europe over the coming week because of heavy rain as noted above
  • High
    pressure ridge aloft over the heart of Brazil will minimize rain potentials in much of center west through center south crop areas for at least the next ten days and perhaps for two weeks
    • Northwestern
      Mato Grosso will be the only area that will see some periodic showers
    • Planting
      moisture will be scarce outside of northwestern Mato Grosso preventing much early soybean or corn planting and conditions will be very poor for germination and emergence
  • Southern
    Brazil wheat, corn and rice areas will receive periodic rainfall maintaining good conditions for planting, emergence and establishment of spring crops and supporting a very good wheat yield outlook
  • Beneficial
    rainfall is coming to France, the United Kingdom, Germany and many other areas in central and western Europe over the coming week easing long term dryness in northwest
    • Spain
      and Portugal will be left mostly dry
    • Some
      rain already began in France and the U.K. overnight
  • Eastern
    Bulgaria, Greece and southeastern Romania may not get much rain for a while
  • Northeastern
    China continues to fight moisture surpluses that are keeping summer crop maturation and harvest progress very slow
    • The
      situation will improve “very slowly” during the next two weeks and absolute dryness is needed
    • The
      wet bias has been present in the region since mid-August
    • Some
      fields in Jilin, eastern Liaoning and Heilongjiang may still have standing water from three tropical cyclones that impacted the region in recent weeks
    • Showers
      are still expected periodically during the next ten days and that combined with mild temperatures will keep drying rates low and fieldwork progressing poorly
  • China’s
    Yellow River Basin and North China Plain are experiencing nearly ideal conditions for wheat planting and summer crop maturation and early harvesting
    • Alternating
      periods of rain and sunshine are expected to support wheat planting, emergence and establishment while supporting summer crop maturation and harvesting
  • Western
    Australia drying remains a concern with northern crops reproducing in a declining soil moisture environment
    • Southern
      crop areas in the state still have favorable soil moisture, but the region is drying and will need rain in October to support reproduction of wheat, barley and canola
      • Some
        rain is expected in October to help ease the drying bias
  • Southeastern
    Australia wheat, barley and canola prospects are looking extremely good with soil moisture in abundance and expected to prevail in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia
    • Periodic
      rainfall is expected to continue in these areas over the next two weeks
  • Queensland,
    Australia has a large need for rain to support cotton and sorghum planting that will soon be starting; dryland areas need the moisture most significantly
    • La
      Nina should provide the necessary moisture boost later this spring
  • India’s
    monsoon is withdrawing from central parts of the nation and will continue doing so over the next few days with a drying bias expected
    • The
      nation’s rainy season has been very successful with the nation having 109% of the normal rainfall for the June 1-September 25 period
    • Drying
      is needed in central areas to protect summer crop conditions and to promote crop maturation
  • South
    Africa still needs significant rain to support winter crops especially in the east
    • Rain
      is also needed to improve topsoil moisture for early corn planting that begins in early October and for all other summer crops that are planted from late October into December

 

  • U.S.
    hard red winter wheat areas are drying down rapidly and significant rain is needed soon to bolster soil moisture for improved wheat planting, emergence and establishment
    • The
      outlook is for poor rainfall and warmer than usual conditions during the next ten days and perhaps longer
    • Net
      drying may eventually delay unirrigated wheat germination, emergence and establishment
  • U.S.
    Midwest crop maturation and harvest conditions will be good through the weekend, but rain and cooling next week in the Great Lakes region southward into Ohio and parts of Indiana may slow that process
    • Rain
      will first impact most of the lower and eastern Midwest early next week as the initial cool air arrives
    • Showers
      during the middle to latter part of next week will occur with cool temperatures and will maintain a slow advancement in crop maturation and harvest progress especially in the Great Lakes region and lower eastern Midwest
    • Another
      frontal system in the second weekend of the two week outlook may induce some additional showers in the Great Lakes region and lower eastern Midwest
    • Net
      Drying will occur in the eastern Midwest after Oct. 4
    • Western
      Corn Belt will experience good harvest weather through much of the next ten days, although there will be a few brief periods of showers in a part of the region
    • Frost
      and freezes may occur to help defoliate some soybeans in a part of the Midwest late next week and into the following weekend
    • Winter
      wheat planting will advance favorably along with some summer crop harvesting
      • Some
        wheat areas need rain
    • The
      bottom line to the Midwest weather will be slow field work and crop maturation rates next week in the Great Lakes region and lower eastern Midwest where there will be a rising need for dry and warm conditions. The western Corn Belt will experience the best
      harvest weather.
  • U.S.
    Delta will experience some needed drying over the next ten days except Monday when rain is expected once again
    • Dry
      weather will occur Friday through Sunday
    • Rain
      Monday will be followed by mostly dry conditions the remainder of next week and into the following weekend
      • Improved
        summer crop maturation and harvest conditions are likely during the middle and latter part of next week and into the following weekend
  • U.S.
    southeastern states will experience some periodic showers and thunderstorms today and again Sunday through Tuesday keeping crop maturation and harvest progress slow
    • Better
      drying conditions will evolve next week and last through the first week of October with only a few showers expected
  • West
    Texas cotton, corn, sorghum and peanut conditions are mostly good for crop maturation and early season harvesting and this will last for at least the next ten days
  • U.S.
    northwestern Plains need a boost in precipitation to induce better winter crop establishment and planting conditions
  • U.S.
    far western states still need a generalized rain to ease long term dryness, but none is expected for a while
  • Canada’s
    Prairies will experience a favorable weather pattern for fieldwork, despite some showers periodically
    • Weekend
      rainfall will be greatest and cause the most disruption to fieldwork
    • Temperatures
      will be near to above average
  • Ontario
    and Quebec, Canada may get rain a little more frequently than desired beginning next week and lasting at least a week and possibly for ten days resulting in some crop maturation and harvest delays
  • Xinjiang,
    China weather will continue favorable for cotton and other crop maturation and early harvest progress except in the northeast where showers and cold conditions are expected this weekend into next week
    • The
      precipitation in northeastern Xinjiang will not be heavy, but enough to slow fieldwork for brief periods of time
      • Minor
        changes in cotton fiber quality are expected
    • Cooling
      during the weekend and next week will bring an increasing risk of frost and freezes to at least northern portions of the region, but cloud cover may keep the temperature up for a while
      • Freezes
        would be not harm crops at this point in their development
    • Key
      cotton areas in the west and south will not be as cold and should stay dry
  • West-Central
    Africa will continue to experience periodic showers and thunderstorms over the next couple of weeks
    • Cotton
      areas will need to dry out soon to protect fiber quality and promote maturation
    • Most
      coffee, cocoa, rice and sugarcane crops receiving rain will likely benefit from the moisture
  • East
    central Africa rainfall has been and will continue to be erratic and mostly beneficial over the next ten days
  • Mainland
    areas of Southeast Asia will experience periodic showers and thunderstorms over the next couple of weeks
    • Late
      season moisture boosting is extremely important since water supply has not been fully restored from last year’s low levels
  • Philippines
    rainfall will continue periodically benefiting most crops.
  • Improving
    rainfall in Indonesia and Malaysia is expected over the next two weeks with some locally heavy rain possible in random locations especially in the first week of October
  • New
    Zealand rainfall will be above average during the next week to ten days and temperatures a little cooler than usual
  • Mexico
    precipitation is expected to be confined to the far south over the next week while all other areas experience net drying
  • Frequent
    rain will continue in Central America maintaining good crop conditions
  • Southern
    Oscillation Index was +10.34 today and it will stay significantly positive into next week

Source:
World Weather Inc. 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

FRIDAY,
Sept. 25:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • China
    customs publishes country-wise soybean and pork import data
  • S&P
    Platts Sugar and Ethanol Conference, Sao Paulo
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • Malaysia
    palm oil export data for Sept. 1-25
  • U.S.
    cattle on feed, 3pm

MONDAY,
Sept. 28:

  • USDA
    weekly corn, soybean, wheat export inspections, 11am
  • U.S.
    crop conditions, harvesting progress for soybeans, corn, cotton, 4pm
  • FT
    Commodities Global Summit (Sept. 28-30)
  • EU
    weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
  • Ivory
    Coast cocoa arrivals
  • EARNINGS:
    Louis Dreyfus

TUESDAY,
Sept. 29:

  • Nothing
    major scheduled

WEDNESDAY,
Sept. 30:

  • EIA
    U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
  • USDA
    quarterly corn, soybean, wheat, sorghum, barley and oat stocks
  • U.S.
    wheat production for Sept.
  • Roundtable
    on Sustainable Palm Oil virtual discussion on seasonal haze
  • Malaysia
    Sept. 1-30 palm oil export data
  • U.S
    agricultural prices paid, received for Aug., 3pm
  • Poland
    to release grains output data
  • HOLIDAY:
    Korea

THURSDAY,
Oct. 1:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • USDA
    soybean crush, DDGS output, corn for ethanol, 3pm
  • Australia
    commodity index for Sept.
  • Webinar
    on the effects of climate change on coffee production in Southeast Asia
  • Honduras,
    Costa Rica coffee exports monthly stats
  • International
    Cotton Advisory Committee releases monthly world outlook
  • HOLIDAY:
    China, Hong Kong, Korea

FRIDAY,
Oct. 2:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • HOLIDAY:
    China, Hong Kong, India, Korea

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

Note
Reuters polled for 2019 corn production.  We think it will be unchanged.  Reuters average was 13.607 billion bu versus 13.617 USDA, so others also not looking for change (range 13.427-13.750 billion for those looking for a change). 

Average
estimates for 2019-20 ending stocks for September 1 don’t deviate much from USDA

USDA
Aug 2019-20 corn carry 2.253 (ave. est. 3 bushels below USDA)

USDA
Aug 2019-20 soy carry 0.575 (ave. est. 1 bushel above USDA)

 

 

CFTC
Commitment of Traders

Index
funds were very busy buying corn and soybean meal.  Traders missed estimates for the net long corn position (more long than expected) for the week ending 9/22 and also missed in the other direction the soybean position. 

 

 

 

 

 

FUTURES
+ OPTS     Managed                 Swaps              Producer

                       
Net        Chg        Net        Chg        Net        Chg

Corn               
95,912     37,356    179,215      5,992   -299,308    -35,471

Soybeans          
211,143     19,369    122,210      3,247   -338,490    -13,692

Soymeal            
65,248     21,550     77,182        610   -191,094    -25,940

Soyoil            
101,702      7,139     89,707     -2,310   -232,384     -7,939

CBOT
wheat          14,543       -570     89,683     -8,110   -100,818      4,701

KCBT
wheat          18,463      8,272     44,006     -1,259    -64,594     -5,522

MGEX
wheat          -2,298        710      2,313        154     -1,275     -1,395

                
———- ———- ———- ———- ———- ———-

Total
wheat         30,708      8,412    136,002     -9,215   -166,687     -2,216

Live
cattle         57,999     -1,622     79,898       -301   -141,469      1,652

Feeder
cattle          710       -800      4,680        510     -3,401         39

Lean
hogs           43,580      1,108     48,462       -171    -99,605     -3,192

Source:
Reuters and CFTC

 

 

Macros

US
Durable Goods Orders Aug P: 0.4% (est 1.4%; prevR 11.7%; prev 11.4%)

US
Durable Goods Ex Transportation Aug P: 0.4% (est 1.0%; prevR 3.2%; prev 2.6%)

 

Corn.

  • French
    corn conditions declined one point for the week ending Sep. 21 to 58 percent and compares to 59 percent year earlier.  15 percent of the French corn crop had been harvested compared to 2 percent year ago. 
  • Funds
    bought an estimated net 15,000 corn contracts after selling 18k on Thursday. 
  • China
    planned to auction off 20,000 tons of pork from reserves today, taking the amount to 590,000 if all of it sold. 
  • China’s
    eastern city of Qingdao found coronavirus contamination on some packages stored by a seafood importer.
  • Germany
    ASF:  2 additional cases reported Friday – 34 cases since September 10
  • Germany
    may roll out aid for producers that are affected with ASF repercussions. 

 

USDA
Cattle on Feed

Placements
came in much higher than expected and on feed was a half percent above expectations at 11.394 million head.  Placements are high due to very dry conditions across the southwest and west central US.  The COF report is seen supportive for corn. 

 

 

Corn
Export Developments

  • South
    Korea’s KFA passed on 68,000 tons of South American corn (they were not in for US) due to high prices.  Lowest offer was $224/ton.  They were in for February 5 arrival. 

 

Corn
ECB is firmer relative to WCB

Source:
Reuters and FI

 

Updated
9/9/20

  • December
    is seen in a $3.40-$3.85 range.  2020-21 to average $3.75 for corn and $2.85 for oats. 

 

Soybean
complex
.
 

  • CBOT
    soybean
    complex traded mixed to start and settled higher.  November soybean ended above $10 at $10.0250.  Soybean meal and oil ended higher.  Soybean meal started lower but USDA reported 100,000 tons of soybean meal sold to unknown this morning, a supportive feature. 
    We believe the sentiment in soybeans may turn bearish next week on improving global weather.  China will also be on holiday October 1-7. 
  • Funds
    bought an estimated net 3,000 soybean contracts, bought 3,000 soybean meal and bought 4,000 soybean oil.