PDF Attached

 

No
Flash sales today by USDA
.  Despite excellent export sales, corn and soybeans traded lower trade in another risk off session.  Wheat found support
from short covering. 

 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

MOST
IMPORTANT WEATHER TO WATCH

  • Central
    and western Ukraine will receive some much-needed rain in the coming week to ten days with 1.00 to 2.00 inches of rain resulting over the first week of the outlook
    • Eastern
      Ukraine will also get a few showers Sunday into Wednesday with rainfall of 0.20 to 0.70 inch resulting
    • Greater
      rain will be needed in eastern Ukraine while western areas will see improved rapeseed, wheat, barley and rye planting and establishment, although some delay to fieldwork will be possible
  • High
    pressure ridge aloft over the heart of Brazil will minimize rain potentials in much of center west through center south crop areas for at least the next ten days and perhaps for two weeks
    • Northwestern
      Mato Grosso will be the only area that will see some periodic showers
    • Planting
      moisture will be scarce outside of northwestern Mato Grosso preventing much early soybean or corn planting and conditions will be very poor for germination and emergence
  • Southern
    Brazil wheat, corn and rice areas will receive periodic rainfall maintaining good conditions for planting, emergence and establishment of spring crops and supporting a very good wheat yield outlook
  • Southern
    and eastern Argentina will get some very important rain today into the weekend improving topsoil moisture in many areas from La Pampa and southern Cordoba to Buenos Aires and in portions of both Santa Fe and Entre Rios
    • Follow
      up rainfall is not likely to be very frequent or significant leading to net drying conditions, but it may be a good opportunity for early season fieldwork and wheat development
    • Temperatures
      will be mild to warm
  • Dryness
    will continue in northern Cordoba, central and northwestern Santa Fe, Santiago de Estero and portions of western Chaco, Argentina during the next ten days to two weeks; some rain in northern cotton areas in the nation will allow some planting to begin
  • Beneficial
    rainfall is coming to France, the United Kingdom, Germany and many other areas in central and western Europe over the coming week easing long term dryness in northwest
    • Spain
      and Portugal will be left mostly dry
  • Eastern
    Bulgaria, Greece and southeastern Romania may not get much rain for a while
  • Northeastern
    China continues to fight moisture surpluses that are keeping summer crop maturation and harvest progress very slow
    • The
      situation will improve “very slowly” during the next two weeks and absolute dryness is needed
    • The
      wet bias has been present in the region since mid-August
    • Some
      fields in Jilin, eastern Liaoning and Heilongjiang may still have standing water from three tropical cyclones that impacted the region in recent weeks
    • Showers
      are still expected periodically during the next ten days and that combined with mild temperatures will keep drying rates low and fieldwork progressing poorly
  • China’s
    Yellow River Basin and North China Plain are experiencing nearly ideal conditions for wheat planting and summer crop maturation and early harvesting
  • Western
    Australia drying remains a concern with northern crops reproducing in a declining soil moisture environment
    • Southern
      crop areas in the state still have favorable soil moisture, but the region is drying and will need rain in October to support reproduction of wheat, barley and canola
      • Some
        rain is expected in October to help ease the drying bias
  • Southeastern
    Australia wheat, barley and canola prospects are looking extremely good with soil moisture in abundance and expected to prevail in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia
    • Periodic
      rainfall is expected to continue in these areas over the next two weeks
  • Queensland,
    Australia has a large need for rain to support cotton and sorghum planting that will soon be starting; dryland areas need the moisture most significantly
    • La
      Nina should provide the necessary moisture boost a little later this spring
  • India’s
    monsoon has not withdrawn normally from central parts of the nation, but it should begin withdrawing over the next few days with next week trending drier
    • The
      nation’s rainy season has been very successful with the nation having 107% of the normal rainfall for the June 1-September 23 period
    • Drying
      is needed in central areas to protect summer crop conditions and to promote crop maturation
  • South
    Africa still needs significant rain to support winter crops especially in the east
    • Rain
      is also needed to improve topsoil moisture for early corn planting that begins in early October and for all other summer crops that are planted from late October into December
  • U.S.
    hard red winter wheat areas are drying down rapidly and significant rain is needed soon to bolster soil moisture for improved wheat planting, emergence and establishment
    • The
      outlook is for poor rainfall and warmer than usual conditions during the next ten days and perhaps longer
  • U.S.
    Midwest crop maturation and harvest conditions will be good through the weekend, but rain and cooling next week in the Great Lakes region southward into Ohio and parts of Indiana may slow that process
    • Rain
      will first impact most of the lower and eastern Midwest early next week as the initial cool air arrives
    • Showers
      during the middle to latter part of next week will occur with cool temperatures and will maintain a slow advancement in crop maturation and harvest progress especially in the Great Lakes region and eastern lower Midwest
    • Another
      frontal system in the second weekend of the two-week outlook may induce some additional showers in the Great Lakes region and lower eastern Midwest
    • Drying
      will occur in the eastern Midwest after Oct. 3
    • Western
      Corn Belt will experience good harvest weather through much of the next ten days, although there will be a few brief periods of showers in a part of the region
    • Frost
      and freezes may occur to help defoliate some soybeans in a part of the Midwest next week and into the following weekend
    • Winter
      wheat planting will advance favorably along with some summer crop harvesting
      • Some
        wheat areas need rain
    • The
      bottom line to the Midwest weather will be slow field work and crop maturation rates next week in the Great Lakes region and lower eastern Midwest where there will be a rising need for dry and warm conditions. The western Corn Belt will experience the best
      harvest weather.
  • U.S.
    Delta will receive additional rain from the remnants of Tropical Depression Beta early today maintaining concern over cotton quality and delaying the harvest all crops in the region
    • Dry
      weather will occur Friday through Sunday
    • Rain
      Monday will be followed by mostly dry conditions the remainder of next week and into the following weekend
      • Improved
        summer crop maturation and harvest conditions are likely during the middle and latter part of next week and into the following weekend
  • U.S.
    southeastern states will experience some periodic showers and thunderstorms into Monday slowing crop maturation and harvest progress at times, but some progress is likely
    • Better
      drying conditions will evolve next week and last through the first week of October with only a few showers expected
  • West
    Texas cotton, corn, sorghum and peanut conditions are mostly good for crop maturation and early season harvesting and this will last for at least the next ten days
  • U.S.
    northwestern Plains need a boost in precipitation to induce better winter crop establishment and planting conditions
  • U.S.
    hard red winter wheat production areas will remain and dry warm over the next ten days reducing soil moisture, but supporting some fieldwork
    • Net
      drying may eventually delay unirrigated wheat germination, emergence and establishment
  • U.S.
    far western states still need a generalized rain to ease long term dryness, but none is expected for a while
  • Canada’s
    Prairies will experience a favorable weather pattern for fieldwork, despite some showers periodically
    • Weekend
      rainfall will be greatest and cause the most disruption to fieldwork
    • Temperatures
      will be near to above average
  • Ontario
    and Quebec, Canada may get rain a little more frequently than desired beginning next week and lasting at least a week and possibly for ten days resulting in some crop maturation and harvest delays
  • Xinjiang,
    China weather will continue favorable for cotton and other crop maturation and early harvest progress except possibly in the northeast where showers are expected this weekend into next week
    • The
      precipitation will not be heavy, but enough to slow field work for brief periods of time
      • Minor
        changes in cotton fiber quality are expected
    • Cooling
      during the weekend and next week will bring an increasing risk of frost and freezes to at least northern portions of the region, but cloud cover may keep the temperature up for a while
      • Freezes
        would be not harm crops at this point in their development
  • West-central
    Africa will continue to experience periodic showers and thunderstorms over the next couple of weeks
    • Cotton
      areas will need to dry out soon to protect fiber quality and promote maturation
    • Most
      coffee, cocoa, rice and sugarcane crops receiving rain will likely benefit from the moisture
  • East
    central Africa rainfall has been and will continue to be erratic and mostly beneficial over the next ten days
  • Mainland
    areas of Southeast Asia will experience periodic showers and thunderstorms over the next couple of weeks
    • Late
      season moisture boosting is extremely important since water supply has not been fully restored from last year’s low levels
  • Philippines
    rainfall will continue periodically benefiting most crops.
  • Improving
    rainfall in Indonesia and Malaysia is expected over the next two weeks with some heavy rain possible in random locations
  • New
    Zealand rainfall will be above average during the next week to ten days and temperatures a little cooler than usual
  • Mexico
    precipitation is expected to be confined to the far south over the next week while all other areas experience net drying
  • Frequent
    rain will continue in Central America maintaining good crop conditions
  • Southern
    Oscillation Index was +9.57 today and it will stay significantly positive into next week

Source:
World Weather Inc. 

 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

FRIDAY,
Sept. 25:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • China
    customs publishes country-wise soybean and pork import data
  • S&P
    Platts Sugar and Ethanol Conference, Sao Paulo
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • Malaysia
    palm oil export data for Sept. 1-25
  • U.S.
    cattle on feed, 3pm

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

USDA
Export Sales

·        
Robust soybean sales of 3.195 million tons, above trade expectations, pull crop-year commitments to 1.306 billion bushels, 61.4 percent of USDA’s export projection and 193 percent above this time
last year.   China booked 1.879MMT, with 198k switched from unknown. 

·        
Soybean meal and oil sales were within expectations, but shipments could have been better. 

·        
USDA corn exports sales topped expectations at 2.139 million tons.  566,400 tons were for China and 371,500 tons for unknown. 

·        
All wheat export sales were 351,200 tons, withing expectations. 

 

 

 

Macros

US
New Home Sales Aug: 1011K (est 890K; prev R 965K)


New Home Sales (M/M) Aug: 4..8% (est -1.2%; prev R 14.7%)


Median Sale Price (USD) Aug: 312.8K, -4.3% From Aug 2019 (327K)

US
Initial Jobless Claims Sep 19: 870K (est 840K; prevR 866K; prev 860K)

                 
US Continuing Claims Sep 12: 12580K (est 12300K; prevR 12747K; prev 12628K)

Canada
Aug. Factory Sales Down 2.0% – StatsCan Flash Estimate

Canadian
Non-Farm Payrolls Rose 739.7K In July To 15.1M

                 
Canadian Average Earnings Rose 8.7% From Year Earlier In July

 

Corn.

  • China
    will auction off 20,000 tons of pork from reserves on Sep 25, taking the amount to 590,000 if all of it sold. 
  • Reuters
    poll for South Africa’s Sep 29th crop year 2020 corn crop: 15.271MMT (8.877 white & 6.493 yellow) vs. 15.537 by CEC in August and compares to 11.275MMT in 2019. 
  • Brazil’s
    center-south region ethanol sales reached 1.33 billion liters in the first half of September, same as a year earlier.  Meanwhile, Unica reported early September exports of ethanol increased 187%.

 

https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/rj430453j/gt54mb17j/1j92gz287/hgpg0920.pdf

 

Corn
Export Developments

 

 

 

 

 

Updated
9/9/20

  • December
    is seen in a $3.40-$3.85 range.  2020-21 to average $3.75 for corn and $2.85 for oats. 

 

Soybean
complex
.

  • CBOT
    soybean
    complex sank today led by soybeans and meal from harvesting pressure and talk of better than expected yields.  November soybeans are at a one-week low. Meal/oil spreads saw a slight correction.   Overbought conditions were noted.  Expected increases in palm
    production for Sept out of Malaysia has led to additional liquidation in that market also and palm oil on the Dalian was down 172 yuan.  CNGOIC noting Chinese companies ordered 21 cargoes of palm oil last week.  European traders were active this week buying
    the SBO/SBM and HOBO spread. 
  • Funds
    sold an estimated net 14,000 soybean contracts, sold 8,000 soybean meal and sold 3,000 soybean oil. 
  • Large
    soybean export sales were posted today for the week ending 9/17 of 3.195 million tons, above trade expectations.  That puts crop-year commitments to 1.306 billion bushels (35.5MMT), highest level since at least 2001, 61.4 percent of USDA’s export projection
    and 193 percent above this time last year.   China booked 1.879MMT, with 198k switched from unknown.  Soybean meal and oil sales were within expectations, but shipments could have been better. 

  • As
    of 9/17, there were 16.981 million tons of outstanding sales soybeans for China, up from 1.437 million tons at that time year earlier.  Three years ago, they were at 7.3MMT and 9.0MMT year before that. 

  • We
    heard China bought at least one soybean cargo out of the US for Nov-Dec shipment. 
  • Central
    and Northern Argentina into southern Brazil will see scattered moderate showers Friday-Saturday and isolated showers Sunday.

 

Oilseeds
Export Developments

  • None
    reported

 

Rolling
third month palm oil

Source:
Reuters and FI

 

 

 

Updated
9/23/20

  • November
    soybeans are seen in a $9.75-$10.50 range.   $9.60 average for 2020-21
  • December
    soybean meal is seen in a $310-$350 range.    $305 average for 2020-21
  • December
    soybean oil is seen in a 32.50-35.50 range.     34.00 cents average for 2020-21

 

Wheat

  • All
    wheat export sales were 351,200 tons, withing expectations. 
  • Paris
    (Matif) December wheat was down 1.75 at 192.25 euros.
  • India
    AgMin – India was projected to produce a record 144.52 million tons of grains from summer-sown crops in the crop year to June 2021 against 143.38 million tons previous year.

 

 

Export
Developments.

  • Japan
    bought 86,027 tons of food wheat later this week. 

  • Postponed
    until Sep 28 – Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of wheat for shipment sometime during Dec or Jan. 
  • Japan
    also seeks 80,000 tons of feed wheat and 100,000 tons of barley for arrival by Feb on Sep 30.