CBOT soybean oil share was hammered today as slowing crush rates in Argentina supported CBOT soybean meal. Palm futures ended lower providing a negative sentiment to soybean oil. Soybeans traded higher in part to meal and rebound from yesterday’s large drop
in prices. The increase in Black Sea cash wheat prices, widely ignored in Monday’s trade, supported wheat. Corn traded two-sided. SK continues to buy corn from South America.
greater rain was suggested for southern Argentina late this week and into the weekend
change comes from The European Model run mostly with greater coverage of rain and amounts from La Pampa into all of Buenos Aires instead of mostly northern areas as advertised Monday
of 1.00 to 3.00 inches has been advertised and locally more
model run also has good coverage in the region
rainfall is advertised to be significant in the south, but more limited in the north along with central Santa Fe and all of northwestern Argentina still gets sporadic rainfall of light intensity
recent changes will prove to be highly beneficial for Argentina winter crop conditions and help improve early corn and sunseed planting potentials from La Pampa and Buenos Aires into Entre Rios and Corrientes.
Ukraine rain prospects are improving for mid-week next week with the European model now suggesting rainfall to 1.25 inches
is still a little low, but all of the models are promoting this opportunity
of Ukraine is now advertised to get rain next week and if the forecast verifies it would be a boon for wheat, barley, rye and rapeseed planting and establishment
Storm Paulette was reincarnated Monday and was located southwest of the European Continent and northwest of Africa while 295 miles southeast of the Azores
is unlikely to impact land and will actually turn back to the west in a couple of days and likely lose its tropical characteristics again over time
Storm Beta was located 10 miles east southeast of Victoria, Texas at 28.8 north, 96.8 west moving northwesterly at 3 mph and producing maximum sustained wind speeds of 40 mph
was expected to be nearly stationary along the central Texas coast today and then move east northeast along the Texas upper coast and then across southern Louisiana to central Mississippi
will be heavy along the central Texas coast today and early Wednesday with rainfall of 2.00 to 6.00 inches and local totals to 10.00 inches
along the path of the storm Wednesday through Friday will range from 2.00 to 6.00 inches as well with some greater amounts in southeastern Louisiana and southern most Mississippi
storm will be downgraded to tropical depression status later today
Teddy was racing toward Nova Scotia Canada and will reach that area Wednesday before moving to Newfoundland Thursday
storm will produce damaging wind, a significant storm surge and very heavy rain even though it will lose its tropical characteristics as it approaches southeastern Canada
AREAS OF INTEREST
and Western Europe is still expected to trend wetter later this week through the weekend with most areas west of Ukraine, Belarus, central Romania and Bulgaria getting rain
Spain and Southern Portugal will be drier biased
rain will fall in far northwestern Europe during the first half of next week while drier weather occurs farther to the east
Northeastern New Lands will not be impacted by significant precipitation over the next ten days
The environment will be very good for spring and summer crop maturation and harvest progress
Showers will occur in the central New Lands and in a few of the Ural Mountains region where rainfall over by September 30 will vary from 0.30 to 1.00 inch and locally more
China received widespread rain Monday
of this occurred south of the Yellow River and rainfall from southern Shaanxi to southern Henan and northern Hubei ranged from 1.00 to nearly 4.00 inches
little rain fell in the Yellow River Basin, North China Plain or Northeast Provinces
showers and thunderstorms occurred in other areas with locally heavy rain in northern Guangxi and southern Hunan
will experience alternating periods of rain and sunshine over the next two weeks
best mix of weather will be in the North China Plain and Yellow River Basin while rain continues to fall a little too often in the far northeast part of China
China will not be quite as wet as it has been, however
to excessive rain will fall in the south from Sichuan and southern Hubei to Fujian, Guangdong, Guangxi and Yunnan
Mongolia and northern Heilongjiang, China may experience a little frost early next week with a more significant bout of cold expected later next week
frost and freezes normally occur in Northeast China during the last days of September and early October making this a seasonable event
Australia will receive periods of rain through Friday and into Saturday resulting in wet field conditions from southeastern South Australia and Victoria into southern New South Wales
will receive some rain today and then will be dry for a while
parts of Western Australia will receive rain late this week into next week, but northern and eastern crop areas of the state may not get much moisture leading to some crop stress
Prairies will experience infrequent precipitation and mild to warm temperatures through the next ten days resulting in relatively good harvest progress
moisture either has or will disrupt crop maturation and harvest progress briefly, but the moisture will be help improve topsoil conditions for use in the spring
weather will occur the remainder of this week favoring the resumption of aggressive fieldwork
will be warmer than usual most of this week and slightly cooler next week
and Quebec, Canada are expecting relatively good crop maturation and harvest conditions for a while this week, but it will trend wetter this weekend into next week
delay to fieldwork is expected
rain Monday fell across Sao Paulo and northeastern Mato Grosso do Sul into southern Minas Gerais
varied from 0.05 to 0.60 inch with a few totals to 1.00 inch
dry weather occurred elsewhere
weather over the next few days will bring showers across Mato Grosso and into Mato Grosso do Sul, Goias and Minas Gerais as well as Sao Paulo
rainfall is expected to be erratic and light, however, resulting in only pockets of improved soil moisture great enough for early soybean planting
rain will induce some coffee and citrus flowering, but most of the precipitation will be a little too light for a serious change in soil and crop conditions
Brazil rice, corn and wheat areas will get periodic rainfall through the next two weeks
and field conditions will either improve or continue good through the end of this month
Africa still needs significant rain for its winter wheat, barley and canola crops, especially those in eastern production areas
much rain is expected over the coming week, although a few sporadic showers are anticipated
precipitation fell in South Africa during the weekend
were warm and will continue warmer than usual
China weather will continue favorable for cotton and other crop maturation and early harvest progress except possibly in the northeast where showers are expected this weekend into next week
precipitation will not be heavy, but enough to slow field work for brief periods of time
changes in cotton fiber quality are expected
during the weekend and next week will bring an increasing rise of frost and freezes to at least northern portions of the region, but cloud cover may keep the temperature up
would be not harm crops at this point in their development
weather will continue wettest in central, southern and far eastern parts of the nation this workweek while net drying occurs in the north
precipitation will continue without much withdrawal through the workweek, but a more significant withdrawing trend is expected in the last week of September and early October improving crop maturation conditions in central parts of the nation
of Tropical Storm Noul will into India from Southeast Asia this week and will bring some enhanced rainfall to parts of India
this disturbance dissipates monsoonal rainfall will begin to withdraw once again
week’s weather will trend drier in central parts of the nation
conditions in most of India are still favorable, but drying will soon be needed in Gujarat as more rain falls this week
weather over the next two weeks
drying is expected over the coming ten days in most of the Great Plains and across portions of the Midwest
rain will fall in northern and eastern parts of the Midwest, but each event will be brief and light enough to have a low impact on crop maturation and early season harvest progress
will fall in the Delta and southeastern states from mid- through late week this week ending during the weekend all of which will come from Tropical Storm Beta
will range from 2.00 to 6.00 inches from southeastern Texas through the lower Delta to central Mississippi with 0.50 to 2.50 inches in Tennessee, northern Georgia and the Carolinas; however, rainfall will be most significant in Louisiana and southern Mississippi
where some flooding is expected
few areas in southeastern Louisiana will receive 6.00 to 10.00 inches of rain resulting in some local flooding
quality, late season rice and a few other crops will be negatively impacted by the heavy rain in the lower Delta
elsewhere are not likely to be significantly impacted by rain from the storm, although wet conditions will induce some harvest delays and could raise the potential for boll rot in the southeastern states
rain will fall in the Pacific Northwest Wednesday through Friday, although mountainous areas will be wettest and the impact on soil moisture in crop areas will not be very great
other areas in the western United States will be dry and warm through October 2
will impact the northern Midwest late Wednesday and Thursday, the eastern Midwest late this weekend and shift to the northeastern and middle Atlantic Coast states early next week
in the eastern Midwest will vary from 0.20 to 0.75 inch with a few totals to 1.50 inches
drizzle and cool temperatures will occur in the Great Lakes region and eastern Midwest most of next week
weather will occur from mid-week next week through the first week in October in the Delta and southeastern states
new frontal system will move across the central Plains October 2-4 and into the Midwest Oct 3-6 producing rainfall of 0.10 to 0.60 inch and local more
in this event is low
crop maturation and harvest progress will be good in the Great Plains and western Corn Belt this week through the first half of next week
harvest progress is also expected in the lower eastern Midwest through this workweek and again during next week’s workweek
Texas will be dry through the next ten days
will be warmer than usual in the western and northern United States while near average in lower Midwest, Delta and southeastern states
is expected in the eastern one-third of the nation next week
Africa will continue to experience periodic showers and thunderstorms over the next couple of weeks
improvement is expected to coffee, cocoa, rice and sugarcane production areas after rain fell significantly during the weekend
areas will also continue to receive some rain for a while longer, but need to begin drying out
crops receiving rain will likely benefit from the moisture
central Africa rainfall has been and will continue to be erratic and mostly beneficial over the next ten days
areas of Southeast Asia will experience periodic showers and thunderstorms over the next couple of weeks
season moisture boosting is extremely important since water supply has not been fully restored from last year’s low levels
rainfall was increased briefly by the passage of Tropical Storm Noul and its remnants
rainfall will continue periodically benefiting most crops.
rainfall in Indonesia and Malaysia is expected over the next two weeks with some heavy rain possible in random locations
Zealand rainfall will be above average during the next week to ten days and temperatures a little cooler than usual
Oscillation Index was +9.12 today and it will stay significantly positive into next week
World Weather Inc.
cold storage data – pork, beef, poultry, 3pm
customs publishes data on imports of corn, wheat, sugar and cotton
U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
of Rouen data on French grain exports
Unica to release cane crush and sugar output data during the week (tentative)
data on hogs and pigs inventory, red meat production, poultry slaughter, 3pm
Grains Council monthly report
Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
customs publishes country-wise soybean and pork import data
Platts Sugar and Ethanol Conference, Sao Paulo
weekly update on crop conditions
palm oil export data for Sept. 1-25
cattle on feed, 3pm
Fed Non-Mfg Regional Business Activity Index Sep: 8.0 (prev 1.6)
Fed Wage And Benefit Cost Index 13.1 In Sept Vs 14.6 In Aug
Business Activity Index 20.4 In Sept Vs 17.9 In Aug
Orders Index 8.5 In Sept Vs 11.6 In Aug
Employment Index 5.1 In Sept Vs -3.0 In Aug
and March corn was settled 0.50 cent lower in part to favorable US harvesting weather. Trade is shifting talk back to the strong Chinese corn demand after USDA announced additional corn sales this morning. South Korea’s NOFI and KFA bought South American corn.
Brazil corn exports may reach 7.5 million tons for the month of September, up roughly a million from Sep 2019.
USD was about 30 points higher and WTI $0.24 higher as of 1:45 PM CT.
sold an estimated net 1,000 corn contracts.
announced 140,000 tons of corn sales to China and 320,000 tons to unknown under the 24-hour announcement system. Since September 1, the 24-hour sales for corn to China amount to 1.156 million tons and 341,600 for unknown, or 1.498 million tons combined (59
US White House dropped its plans to roll out a plan to aid oil refineries denied biofuel waivers. At least $300 million from potentially the USDA CCC program was to be granted to the refineries.
delays will occur to in the Delta and southeastern states due to remnants of Tropical Storm Beta, but the rest of the country will see mostly dry weather.
and Corn Advisory: US corn yield unchanged at 176.0 bu/ac.
producers started corn plantings in RGDS, Minas Gerais and Parana. It’s been slowed recently by cold weather. In Argentina corn plantings started bias eastern areas where rains occurred.
the probability of La Nina during the OND period is nearly 80 percent.
hog futures traded limit up.
plans to buy 7,700 tons of beef and mutton for state reserves on September 24.
will auction off 20,000 tons of pork from reserves on Sep 25, taking the amount to 590,000 if all of it sold.
poll for South Africa’s Sep 29th crop year 2020 corn crop: 15.271MMT (8.877 white & 6.493 yellow) vs. 15.537 by CEC in August and compares to 11.275MMT in 2019.
Bloomberg poll looks for weekly US ethanol production to be down 2,000 at 924,000 barrels (890-943 range) from the previous week and stocks to increase 218,000 barrels to 20.016 million.
the 24-hour announcement system, private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture the following activity:
sales of 140,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to China during the 2020/2021 marketing year
sales of 320,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2020/2021 marketing year
Korea’s KFA bought 60,000 tons of Brazilian corn at $229.00/ton for Oct 15-Nov 15 shipment
Korea’s NOFI bought 202,000 tons of SA corn at between $228.45 & $228.90/ton for Jan/Feb arrival.
is seen in a $3.40-$3.85 range. 2020-21 to average $3.75 for corn and $2.85 for oats.