PDF Attached

 

Reuters
showed funds sold 35k corn, 17k beans and 20k wheat. 
Sharply
lower trade in US equities and WTI and higher trade in the USD created a risk off session in commodities. 

 

Weather
and Crop Progress

 

 

 

 

 

 

MOST
NOTABLE ISSUES SINCE FRIDAY

  • Argentina
    will receive rain Thursday into Saturday easing dryness in some western and southern areas and maintaining good soil moisture in eastern crop areas
    • Rainfall
      of 0.30 to 1.00 inch will occur in 70% of the nation with 1.00 to 2.00 inches and locally more from northern La Pampa and northern Buenos Aires to northern Santa Fe and southern Corrientes
    • Follow
      up showers are expected for a little while next week, but much of the rain will not be great enough to change soil moisture
      • The
        12z GFS model run is too wet today for next week
  • Freezing
    temperatures in Argentina during the weekend had no permanent damage on winter wheat, barley or any early season spring crop
    • The
      cold was not unusual for this time of year
  • Central
    and Western Europe is still expected to trend wetter later this week through the weekend with moist areas west of Ukraine, Belarus, central Romania and Bulgaria getting rain
    • Southern
      Spain and Southern Portugal will be drier biased
    • Additional
      rain will fall in far northwestern Europe during the first half of next week while drier weather occurs farther to the east
  • No
    rain is expected from Ukraine, Most of Belarus and Eastern Romania to western Kazakhstan this workweek, but some rain will fall in western Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria, Moldova and Belarus this weekend
    • Moisture
      totals in these areas will vary from 0.20 to 0.80 inch with a few 1.00 to 2.00-inch amounts
      • Eastern
        Ukraine will be driest
  • No
    rain is likely for the next ten days in Eastern Ukraine, the middle and lower Volga River Basin and much of Kazakhstan
  • Russia’s
    Northeastern New Lands will not be impacted by significant precipitation over the next ten days

·        
The environment will be very good for spring and summer crop maturation and harvest progress

·        
Showers will occur in the central New Lands and in a few of the Ural Mountains region where rainfall over by September 30 will vary from 0.30 to 1.00 inch and locally more

  • Rain
    developed throughout Spain, Portugal and central through southwestern France during the weekend because of Subtropical Storm Alpha that moved across northwestern parts of the Iberian Peninsula.
    • Rainfall
      varied from 0.25 to 1.10 inches with a few local totals to 2.00 inches
  • Rest
    of Europe was left dry with temperatures well above average in France for a brief period ahead of the weekend rain
  • East-central
    China was left dry during the weekend
    • The
      dry weather was ideal for summer crop maturation and early autumn planting in the Yellow River Basin and North China Plain
    • Rain
      continued to fall periodically in Heilongjiang and Jilin where summer crop maturation and harvest progress has not advanced well yet this year because of too much rain
      • Additional
        moisture totals varied from 0.15 to 0.72 inch with local totals of 1.00 to 3.39 inches in south-central Heilongjiang
    • Heavy
      rain fell during the weekend from Guangdong to Jiangxi to Fujian where amounts many areas reported 4.60 to 12.79 inches
      • Some
        flooding occurred in the region possibly threatening a little rice and some groundnuts as well as other crops
  • China
    will experience alternating periods of rain and sunshine over the next two weeks
    • The
      best mix of weather will be in the North China Plain and Yellow River Basin while rain continues to fall a little too often in the far northeast part of China
      • Northeastern
        China will not be quite as wet as it has been, however
    • Abundant
      to excessive rain will fall in the south from Sichuan and southern Hubei to Fujian, Guangdong, Guangxi and Yunnan
  • Inner
    Mongolia and northern Heilongjiang, China may experience a little frost this weekend with a more significant bout of cold expected next week
    • First
      frost and freezes normally occur in Northeast China during the last days of September and early October making this a seasonable event
  • Eastern
    Australia received some beneficial rain Friday through Sunday with a needed boost in soil moisture resulting in eastern parts of South Australia, central and northwestern New South Wales and western Queensland
    • Moisture
      totals of 0.30 to 1.63 inches occurred from eastern South Australia into central New South Wales and western Queensland
      • Moisture
        totals farther to the east and south were no more than 0.35 inch
    • Additional
      rain is expected periodically over the next two weeks in eastern parts of the nation
  • Western
    Australia will receive no rain of significance for the coming week, although showers will occur near the lower west and southern coast; interior parts of the state will be left dry
    • “Some”
      rain will develop Sunday in Western Australia and it will move to South Australia early next week and then into eastern portions of the nation later next week
    • All
      of the moisture will be extremely important for winter crop development, but much more will be needed especially in the west
  • Rain
    fell in southeastern Alberta and western and central Saskatchewan Saturday into early today and the precipitation will spread into Manitoba today
    • The
      moisture either has or will disrupt crop maturation and harvest progress briefly, but the moisture will be help improve topsoil conditions for use in the spring
    • Drier
      weather will occur the remainder of this week favoring the resumption of aggressive fieldwork
    • Temperatures
      will be warmer than usual most of this week and slightly cooler next week
  • Frost
    and freezes occurred in Ontario and Quebec, Canada as well as the northeastern United States during the weekend
    • Low
      temperatures were in the middle 20s through the lower 30s Fahrenheit ending the growing season for some corn and soybeans
      • Damage
        to crops should not have been significant
  • Tropical
    Storm Beta was located 70 miles southeast of Port O’Connor, Texas moving westerly at 6 mph and producing maximum sustained wind speeds of 50 mph at 0700 CDT. Tropical storm force wind was occurring out 175 miles from the storm center
    • No
      change in intensity is expected prior to landfall
    • Landfall
      is expected north of Port O’Connor, Texas Early Tuesday morning before drifting northeast toward Galveston and Houston, Texas as a weakening storm Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday
      • Remnants
        of the storm will then move through the lower delta Thursday into Friday morning
    • Rainfall
      this week will range from 2.00 to 6.00 inches from the middle and upper Texas coastal region into the lower Delta and areas northeast into Alabama and northern Georgia
      • Rain
        totals of 6.00 to 10.00 inches may impact southeastern Louisiana and immediate neighboring areas
    • Rainfall
      of 1.00 to 2.00 inches will occur in the northern Delta while amounts in southern Georgia, northeastern Florida and the Carolinas will range from 0.50 to 2.00 inches – most of which will occur during the coming weekend
  • Hurricane
    Teddy at 0500 EDT was located 160 miles southeast of Bermuda at 30.5 north, 63.0 west moving north northeasterly at 9 mph and producing maximum sustained wind speeds of 100 mph with tropical storm force wind occurring out 230 miles
    • Hurricane
      force wind was occurring out 70 miles from the storm center
    • Teddy
      will pass to the east of Bermuda tonight and should have a low impact on the island, although tropical storm force wind and rough seas are expected along with some light rainfall
    • Teddy
      will move farther to the north reaching Nova Scotia, Canada Wednesday as a mid-latitude storm
    • Teddy
      will then turn to the northeast and move across Newfoundland
    • Torrential
      rain and flooding will occur in southeastern Canada with some property damage likely
    • Damaging
      wind will also occur as Teddy impacts Nova Scotia and Newfoundland
  • Tropical
    Depression Wilfred dissipated overnight
  • Tropical
    Storm Dolphin developed during the weekend well south of Japan, but was expected to approach central Honshu coastal areas Thursday
    • Some
      heavy rain and windy conditions will accompany the storm inland
  • Rain
    developed from northeastern Sao Paulo into southern Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro, Brazil coffee areas overnight and the moisture will continue through Tuesday eventually producing enough moisture to support coffee flowering.

 

OTHER
WORLD WEATHER ISSUES

  • South
    Africa still needs significant rain for its winter wheat, barley and canola crops, especially those in eastern production areas
    • Not
      much rain is expected over the coming week, although a few sporadic showers are anticipated
    • No
      precipitation fell in South Africa during the weekend
    • Temperatures
      were warm and will continue warmer than usual
  • Center
    West and southern parts of center south Brazil are advertised to receive scattered showers and thunderstorms today into Wednesday Morning with some follow up rain through the weekend in northern parts of Mato Grosso and areas south into southern Brazil
    • The
      precipitation might eventually help lift topsoil moisture for “some” early season soybean planting, but much more rain will be needed
    • Coffee
      and citrus flowering “may” occur in a few areas from Sao Paulo into southern Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro while sugarcane and early corn experience a moisture boost to improve crop development
    • Follow
      up rain will be very important to induce the best early season planting conditions for soybeans and to induce better flowering conditions for coffee and citrus
  • Southern
    Brazil rice, corn and wheat areas will get periodic rainfall through the next two weeks
    • Crop
      and field conditions will either improve or continue good through the end of this month
  • Xinjiang,
    China weather will continue favorable for cotton and other crop maturation and early harvest progress
    • Alternating
      periods of warm and cool weather will occur through the next week to 8 or 9 days with restricted rainfall expected
    • The
      environment will support crop maturation, leaf defoliation and early harvesting
    • High
      temperatures Thursday were in the 70s and 80s Fahrenheit and lows today in the upper 40s and 50s
    • Frost
      and freezes may occur late this week and into the weekend in northeastern Xinjiang, but it will be more likely next week
      • Other
        areas are not likely to experience any threat of frost
  • India
    weather will continue wettest in central, southern and far eastern parts of the nation this workweek while net drying occurs in the north
    • Monsoonal
      precipitation will continue without much withdrawal through the workweek, but a more significant withdrawing trend is expected in the last week of September and early October improving crop maturation conditions in central parts of the nation
    • Remnants
      of Tropical Storm Noul will into India from Southeast Asia this week and will bring some enhanced rainfall to parts of India
      • Once
        this disturbance dissipates monsoonal rainfall will begin to withdraw once again
    • Next
      week’s weather will trend drier in central parts of the nation
    • Weather
      conditions in most of India are still favorable, but drying will soon be needed in Gujarat as more rain falls this week
  • U.S.
    weather over the next two weeks
    • Net
      drying is expected over the coming week in most of the Great Plains and across the Midwest
    • Rain
      will fall in the Delta and southeastern states from mid- through late week this week ending during the weekend all of which will come from Tropical Storm Beta
      • Rainfall
        will range from 2.00 to 6.00 inches from southeastern Texas through the lower Delta to Mississippi, Tennessee, northern Georgia and the Carolinas; however, rainfall will be most significant in Louisiana and southern Mississippi where some flooding is expected
        • A
          few areas in southeastern Louisiana will receive 6.00 to 10.00 inches of rain resulting in some flooding
        • Cotton,
          rice and a few other crops will be negatively impacted by the heavy rain in the lower Delta
        • Crops
          elsewhere are not likely to be significantly impacted by rain from the storm, although wet conditions will induce some harvest delays and could raise the potential for boll rot in the southeastern states
    • Some
      rain will fall in the Pacific Northwest Wednesday through Friday, although mountainous areas will be wettest and the impact on soil moisture in crop areas will not be very great
    • Most
      other areas in the western United States will be dry and warm through October 2
    • Rain
      will impact the eastern Midwest this weekend and shift to the northeastern and middle Atlantic Coast states early next week
      • Amounts
        in the eastern Midwest will vary from 0.20 to 0.75 inch with a few totals to 1.50 inches
    • Showers,
      drizzle and cool temperatures will occur in the Great Lakes region early next week
    • Dry
      weather will occur again in the balance of next week in the eastern Midwest, Delta and southeastern states
    • A
      new frontal system will move across the central Plains October 2-4 and into the Midwest Oct 3-6 producing rainfall of 0.20 to 0.80 inch and local amounts of 1.00 to 2.00 inches
      •  Confidence
        in this event is low
    • Summer
      crop maturation and harvest progress will be good in the Great Plains and western Corn Belt this week through the first half of next week
    • Good
      harvest progress is also expected in the eastern Midwest through this workweek and again during next week’s workweek
    • West
      Texas will be dry through much of the next two weeks
    • Temperatures
      will be warmer than usual in the western and central United States while near average in central and southeastern parts of the nation during the week
      • Cooling
        is expected in the eastern one-third of the nation next week
  • The
    bottom line for the U.S. is one of concern for crop conditions in the lower and middle Delta where it will become too wet for a while this week. Concern will also rise over harvest delays in the southeastern states. Most crops will survive the wet bias, but
    there will be some concern over cotton fiber quality in both the Delta and parts of the southeastern states. Boll rot potentials will continue to rise in those areas impacted by heavy rain from Tropical Storm Sally once the new moisture from Tropical Storm
    Beta arrives later this week. Hard red winter wheat production areas will continue to dry out and significant rain will be needed soon to support planting, emergence and establishment.  Otherwise the dry bias in the Plains and Midwest will be good for harvest
    progress.
  • U.S.
    weekend weather was generally dry
    • Some
      rain fell in the Northern Rocky Mountain region and in coastal areas of the Pacific Northwest, but few crop areas were impacted
    • Rain
      also fell along the Gulf of Mexico coast and in much of Florida
      • Rainfall
        in Florida varied 1.00 to 4.44 inches in some citrus areas
    • Temperatures
      were seasonable in the east and northwest and warmer than usual in the high Plains region
  • Southeastern
    Canada will experience alternating periods of rain and sunshine will occur through the next two weeks
    • The
      environment will be good for summer crop maturation and harvesting, although rain will induce some brief delays periodically
  • West-central
    Africa will continue to experience periodic showers and thunderstorms over the next couple of weeks
    • Rain
      Fell during the weekend from Cameroon through Nigeria and Benin to Ivory Coast and Ghana
    • Additional
      improvement is expected to coffee, cocoa, rice and sugarcane production areas after rain fell significantly during the weekend
    • Cotton
      areas will also continue to receive some rain for a while longer, but need to begin drying out
    • Most
      crops receiving rain will likely benefit from the moisture
  • East
    central Africa rainfall has been and will continue to be erratic and mostly beneficial over the next ten days
  • Canada
    Prairies received rain during the weekend from southeastern Alberta across Saskatchewan with some areas getting 0.30 to 1.69 inches
    • Western
      Saskatchewan was wettest
    • Some
      showers will shift to the east today reaching into Manitoba lightly
    • Limited
      rainfall will then occur for a while this week across the Prairies, but some rain will evolve later this week in western Alberta
    • The
      dry environment will be great for crop maturation and harvest progress
  • Mainland
    areas of Southeast Asia will experience periodic showers and thunderstorms over the next couple of weeks
    • Late
      season moisture boosting is extremely important since water supply has not been fully restored from last year’s low levels
    • Weekend
      rainfall was increased briefly by the passage of Tropical Storm Noul and its remnants
  • Philippines
    rainfall will continue periodically benefiting most crops.
  • Improving
    rainfall in Indonesia and Malaysia is expected over the next two weeks with some heavy rain possible in random locations
  • New
    Zealand rainfall will be above average during the next week to ten days and temperatures a little cooler than usual
  • Southern
    Oscillation Index was +9.01 today and it will stay significantly positive into next week

Source:
World Weather Inc. 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

MONDAY,
Sept. 21:

  • USDA
    weekly corn, soybean, wheat export inspections, 11am
  • U.S.
    crop conditions, harvesting progress for soybeans, corn, cotton, 4pm
  • EU
    weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
  • Ivory
    Coast cocoa arrivals
  • Malaysia
    Sept. 1-20 palm oil export data
  • HOLIDAY:
    Japan

TUESDAY,
Sept. 22:

  • U.S.
    cold storage data – pork, beef, poultry, 3pm
  • HOLIDAY:
    Japan

WEDNESDAY,
Sept. 23:

  • China
    customs publishes data on imports of corn, wheat, sugar and cotton
  • EIA
    U.S. weekly ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am

THURSDAY,
Sept. 24:

  • USDA
    weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • Brazil’s
    Unica to release cane crush and sugar output data during the week (tentative)
  • USDA
    data on hogs and pigs inventory, red meat production, poultry slaughter, 3pm
  • International
    Grains Council monthly report

FRIDAY,
Sept. 25:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report, 1:30pm (6:30pm London)
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
  • China
    customs publishes country-wise soybean and pork import data
  • S&P
    Platts Sugar and Ethanol Conference, Sao Paulo
  • FranceAgriMer
    weekly update on crop conditions
  • Malaysia
    palm oil export data for Sept. 1-25
  • U.S.
    cattle on feed, 3pm

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

USDA
inspections versus Reuters trade range                                            

Wheat      
469,939     versus  450000-700000           range

Corn         
755,111     versus  650000-900000           range

Soybeans  
1,310,854  versus  1000000-1580000       range

 

 

 

GRAINS
INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT

                 
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING SEP 17, 2020

                           
— METRIC TONS —

 

————————————————————————-

                                                  
CURRENT     PREVIOUS 

             ———–
WEEK ENDING ———-  MARKET YEAR  MARKET YEAR

 
GRAIN      09/17/2020  09/10/2020  09/19/2019    TO DATE     TO DATE  

 

BARLEY             
0           0           0        5,727        3,036 

CORN         
755,111     939,113     235,389    1,966,144    1,130,528 

FLAXSEED           
0           0          24          389           72 

MIXED              
0           0           0            0            0 

OATS              
48           0         499          996          798 

RYE                
0           0           0            0            0 

SORGHUM       
71,452     141,268       6,276      245,816       85,675 

SOYBEANS   
1,310,854   1,625,688     926,271    3,567,160    2,168,234 

SUNFLOWER          
0           0           0            0            0 

WHEAT        
469,939     692,422     488,647    8,624,311    8,018,650 

Total      
2,607,404   3,398,491   1,657,106   14,410,543   11,406,993 

CROP
MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND

FLAXSEED; 
SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.

INCLUDES
WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

 

Corn.

  • US
    corn harvest progress was reported at 8 complete from 5 percent previous week, 6 year ago and compares to 10 percent average.  The trade was looking for 11 percent.   95 percent of the crop was dented and 59 percent mature (49 average). 
  • USDA
    US corn export inspections as of September 17, 2020 were 755,111 tons, within a range of trade expectations, below 939,113 tons previous week and compares to 235,389 tons year ago. Major countries included China Main for 204,498 tons, Colombia for 134,812
    tons, and Mexico for 115,063 tons.
  • Ukraine
    grain stocks as of September 1 were 17.2 million tons, 4 million less than the same period year ago.  Ukraine exported 10.48 million tons of grain since July 2020, compared with 12.19 million tons at the same point previous season.
  • German
    breeding piglet prices are down sharply since the discovery of ASF.  They went from 40 euros/piglet to around 27. 
  • (Reuters)
    – A further seven cases of African swine fever (ASF) have been confirmed in wild boar in the eastern German state of Brandenburg, Germany’s federal agriculture ministry said on Monday.  The new cases follow 13 others confirmed in wild boar, not farm animals,
    the ministry said. The new discoveries bring total confirmed cases to 20 since the first one on Sept. 10.

 

Corn
Export Developments

None
reported

 

Source:
Trade News Service. 

 

Updated
9/9/20

  • December
    is seen in a $3.40-$3.85 range.  2020-21 to average $3.75 for corn and $2.85 for oats. 

 

Soybean
complex
.

  • USDA
    reported soybean conditions at 63 points for the combined good and excellent categories from 63 percent last week, 54 last year and 63 average  The trade was looking for a one-point decrease. On an adjusted basis, the US condition was unchanged. 

  • US
    soybean harvest progress was initially reported at 6 complete and compares to 6 average.  The trade was looking for 5 percent.   59 percent of the crop is dropping leaves. 
  • USDA
    US soybean export inspections as of September 17, 2020 were 1,310,854 tons, within a range of trade expectations, below 1,625,688 tons previous week and compares to 926,271 tons year ago. Major countries included China Main for 889,788 tons, Indonesia for
    79,853 tons, and Egypt for 46,405 tons.
  • Funds
    sold an estimated net 17,000 contracts of soybeans, sold 4,000 soybean meal and sold 7,000

    soybean oil.   

  • Ukraine
    Black Sea sunflower oil was up $65-$110/ton over the past week to $1000-$1050 per APK-Inform. 
  • The
    Platts SA soybean contract starts trading today.  Here is the link for the new contract.
    https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agricultural/south-american-soybeans.html
  • Brazil
    soybean plantings are expected to start next week in the far southern areas ahead heavy rain forecast for Parana, Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina during the September 26-28 period.  Other areas will see rain by early October. 
  • Crude
    IL soybean oil for IL was about 75 over, East 100 over, West 50 over and Gulf 400 over.  Argentina was about 275 over and Brazil 450 over fob. 
  • Argentina
    crushed 3.508 million tons of soybeans during the month of July, down from 3.656 million tons during June and below 4.457 million tons during July 2019.  April through July Argentina soybean crush was 14.871 million tons, below 16.562 million tons during the
    same period a year ago, or down 10 percent. 
  • China
    bought about 40 cargoes of soybeans last week, with more than half from the US.