FI Evening Grain Comments 09/20/21

PDF Attached

 

US
equity and most commodity markets traded lower. Attached is our US wheat production by class tables and US balance.  US corn and soybean conditions improved one point each, and both were one point above trade expectations. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weather

7-day

 

World
Weather Inc.

MOST
IMPORTANT WEATHER FOR THE COMING WEEK

• U.S.
  weather early this week will include showers and thunderstorms in northern and eastern parts of the Midwest as well as the Delta, Tennessee River Basin and southeastern states as tropical moisture lifts northward from the Gulf of Mexico Coast States to merge
  with a mid-latitude frontal system moving west to east across the eastern Midwest resulting in moderate to locally heavy rain

o  
Moisture totals by Wednesday afternoon will range from 0.10 to 0.75 inch of rain in the western Corn Belt with local totals of 1.00 to 2.00 inches in eastern and northern Minnesota and Wisconsin

o  
Rainfall of 1.00 to 4.00 inches will occur in Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky southeastern Michigan

o  
Rainfall of 0.10 to 0.75 inch and local totals over 1.00 inch will impact the Delta

o  
Rainfall of 0.75 to 2.50 inches in the southeastern states with a few areas in the Carolinas getting 2.50 to more than 4.00 inches

• U.S.
  Plains, far western Corn Belt and most of the far western U.S. crop areas will not get enough rain to counter evaporation during the next ten to two weeks

o  
Dryness could be quite persistent resulting in soil moisture depletion, a decline in grazing conditions, poor unirrigated winter crop emergence, and establishment and a rising level of worry over water supply in the western half
of the nation

o  
An upper level low pressure center will move through southern California to the Great Basin producing some showers late this week into the weekend

• U.S.
  temperatures in this coming week will be warmer than usual in the Plains and areas west to the Pacific Coast as well as in New England

o  
Temperatures will be near to below average in the interior southeastern states

• Soft
  frost is expected in Tuesday into Thursday mornings from the eastern Dakotas to upper Michigan and Wisconsin
• None
  of the frost should seriously harm crops
• Lowest
  temperatures will slip to the 30s Fahrenheit
• U.S.
  temperatures next week will be cooler in the Midwest and northern Plains while warmer than usual weather continues in the far western U.S.
  
• U.S.
  weekend weather included net drying in the Midwest, much of the Great Plains and the southwestern states

o  
Showers occurred in a narrow band from the Rolling Plains of West Texas northward into central Kansas and interior eastern Nebraska where moisture totals ranged up to 0.60 inch

o  
Rain and thunderstorms were more generalized during the Friday through Sunday period from the Delta east into eastern Tennessee, western and central Georgia and Florida

• Rainfall
  varied from 1.00 to nearly 4.00 inches from the Tennessee River Basin and southwestern Kentucky to western and south-central Georgia and northern Florida
• A
  few areas in southern Mississippi and eastern and northern Louisiana also reported 1.00 to more than 2.00 inches of rain with McComb, MS reporting 3.07 inches
  

o  
Rain fell significantly from the Cascade Mountains to the Pacific Coast as far south as the uppermost California coast

• Moisture
  totals ranged from 1.00 to 3.13 inches in much of this region bolstering soil moisture
• The
  precipitation did not reach significantly into the Yakima Valley, the Columbia River Valley or the Snake River Valley, although a few light showers occurred in these areas

o  
Temperatures were quite warm to hot in the northwestern U.S. Plains where 90-degree highs were noted

• Similar
  hot conditions occurred from the central Plains and lower Midwest into the southern Plains where readings in the 90s were common
  
• Many
  other Midwestern, Delta and southeastern states’ crop areas were in the 80s with a few lower 90s and a couple of upper 70s
• No
  crop threatening cold occurred in key crop areas
• Canada’s
  Prairies were unseasonably hot during the weekend with 80- and lower 90-degree highs in the heart of Saskatchewan while 60s and 70s occurred in many other areas.
  

o  
Some locations in far western Canada were no warmer than the 50s Fahrenheit

o  
Lowest temperatures were in the 30s and 40s in the west and 40s and lower 50s central and east

• Canada
  Prairies weather this week will be warmer and drier than usual, although totally dry conditions are unlikely

o  
Despite the warm bias, frost and some freezes will be widespread in Saskatchewan and Manitoba Tuesday morning

• Warming
  is expected the remainder of this week

o  
Warmer than usual conditions will continue next week as well

o  
Precipitation will be restricted

• Ontario
  and Quebec, Canada weather will briefly turn wetter this week resulting in some summer crop maturation and harvest delays

o  
Rainfall will be greater than usual this week and more seasonable next week

o  
Temperatures will be near to above normal

• Tropical
  Storm Peter was located near 19.1 north, 59.5 west at 0500 EDT today which was 245 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands moving west northwesterly at 17 mph and producing maximum sustained wind speeds of 50 mph

o  
Tropical storm force wind was occurring out 125 miles

o  
A slow weakening trend will begin today and last through mid-week

o  
The storm will pass to the northeast of the Antilles and then turn to the northeast away from North America

o  
Peter may be downgraded to depression status as it turns to the north and then to the northeast

o  
The storm could influence Bermuda during the coming weekend, but the system may pass to the southeast of the island

• Tropical
  Storm Rose was located 550 miles west of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands at 0500 EDT today from a position near 15. 9 north, 32.6 west moving northwesterly at 15 mph and producing maximum sustained wind speeds of 40 mph up to 35 miles from the storm center

o  
Rose will continue moving northwesterly through mid-week and then begin to weaken late this week over open water in the central Atlantic Ocean

o  
The storm poses no threat to land through the first half of next week

• A
  tropical wave moving off the Africa west coast early this week has potential to become a tropical cyclone late this week over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean with movement toward the Lesser Antilles next week

o  
The storm will not likely have strong support for significant development, but it will be closely monitored

• Remnants
  of Tropical Storm Odette in the northwestern Atlantic Ocean have “some” potential for redevelopment during mid-week this week as the system moves to lower Latitudes, but there would be no threat to North America
• Argentina
  weather was mostly dry during the weekend, but some rain evolved in the southwest Sunday and early today
  

o  
Rainfall of 0.10 to 0.75 inch resulted in La Pampa, far western Buenos Aires, San Luis and far southwestern Cordoba with local totals over 1.00 inch in far southwestern Buenos Aires and southeastern La Pampa

o  
Totally dry weather is not likely over the next seven days, but most of the precipitation that falls will be a little too sporadic and light for a serious change in topsoil moisture or crop conditions – especially in the driest
areas

• The
  areas that need moisture most will likely only experience light showers and minimal relief
  

o  
Week two of the outlook will induce greater rainfall in southern and eastern parts of the nation, but the north and west-central parts will remain too dry

o  
A moisture boost must occur soon in northern and western crop areas to support winter wheat and early season planting of spring crops

• As
  of Thursday, sunseed planting was 14% done compared to 23% last year. 
• Brazil
  weather during the weekend was seasonably dry and warm to hot across the center west and center south while scattered showers and thunderstorms occurred in the far south

o  
Highest afternoon temperatures were in the 90s to 104 degrees Fahrenheit with extremes to 106 in northern Paraguay

o  
Rain was significant in northern Rio Grande do Sul where 0.25 to 1.57 inches resulted through Sunday morning with Paso Fundo reporting 2.04 inches

• Brazil
  will continue very warm to hot in the center west and center south this workweek with minimal precipitation
  

o  
Showers will occur in the far south, but significant moisture will not be very great

o  
Showers will develop in center west and center south this weekend and continue periodically next week

• Sufficient
  rain will fall in “some” areas to lift topsoil moisture for better early season soybean and early corn planting. Greater rainfall will still be needed before aggressive fieldwork can begin; however, any precipitation will be better than none.
  
• Rain
  is advertised to increase in many areas during the final days in September and early days in October
• Europe
  weather this week is expected to be favorably mixed with a little rain and some sunshine. Southern parts of the continent will be wettest

o  
Next week’s weather is expected to be wetter biased in France, the U.K., Germany and northern Italy

o  
Eastern Europe will be drier than usual next week

o  
Temperatures will be near normal this week and then cooler than usual in the west and warmer usual in the east

• Europe
  weather during the weekend was wettest in France and from eastern Poland through Belarus and parts of Ukraine into western Russia

o  
Net drying occurred elsewhere

o  
Temperatures were mil to warm

• Belarus
  and southwestern Russia received rain during the weekend along with portions of Ukraine all of which benefited winter wheat, rye and barley germination, emergence and future establishment

o  
Rainfall varied from 1.00 to 3.00 inches from Belarus into southwestern Russia while varying from 0.50 to 1.57 inches in most other areas, although as much as 4.00 inches occurred at one central Ukraine location

o  
Showers also occurred in Russia’s eastern New Lands

o  
Temperatures were mild to cool west of the Ural Mountains and warmer than usual in Kazakhstan

• Eastern
  China will experience too much rain again over this coming week

o  
The Yellow River Basin and North China Plain will be wetter than usual this week with rainfall well above average varying from northeastern Sichuan and Shaanxi to the northeastern provinces during the next ten days

• Rain
  today will be greatest in the North China Plain and northeastern provinces, but will be greatest in the second half of this week, into the weekend and next week in the Yellow River Basin
  
• Some
  heavy rain is expected which may delay summer crop harvesting and early autumn wheat planting, but the moisture will be good for long term crop development during the balance of Autumn

o  
Temperatures will be near to above normal

• Rain
  in China next week will concentrate between the Yellow River and the southern Yangtze River Basin
  

o  
Resulting rainfall will be greater than usual in that region while needed drying begins near and north of the Yellow River

o  
Temperatures will be near to above average

• India
  weather during the weekend was quite limited in the far north and interior south while showers occurred lightly in other areas

o  
Temperatures were seasonable to a bit warmer than usual with the north warmest relative to normal

• India’s
  monsoon will continue undaunted by seasonal weather changes this week or early next week

o  
Rain will fall frequently most of the nation with the interior south staying driest this week, but getting a little wetter next week

o  
Rainfall will be well above average this week in central and northwestern parts of the nation and neighboring Pakistan

o  
Temperatures will be near normal with a slight cooler than usual bias in the wettest areas

• Australia
  rainfall during the weekend was greatest in New South Wales and Victoria where up to 0.45 inch resulted
  

o  
The precipitation was good for winter wheat, barley and canola development

o  
Dryness continues in Queensland and needs to be relieved soon to induce good spring planting conditions

• Dryness
  has already lasted long enough to cut into some Queensland dryland wheat and barley yields

o  
All other Australia’s winter crop production potentials are still high with little change likely

o  
Temperatures will be a little cooler than usual in the southeast this week and near normal elsewhere

• Australia
  rainfall will be restricted during this coming week, but it will increase in eastern crop areas next week

o  
Western and South Australia precipitation will be most restricted

• Central
  Africa rainfall will occur favorably over the next two weeks

o  
Sufficient rain will fall to support normal coffee, cocoa, sugarcane, rice and other crop development from Ethiopia to northern Tanzania and from Ivory Coast to Cameroon and Nigeria

• South
  Africa was mostly dry during the weekend and temperatures were warm

o  
Crop development will advance normally, but greater rain would be welcome in winter crop areas

o  
Weather this week is not likely to have much precipitation in it, but showers may increase next week

• Southeast
  Asia rainfall is expected to be frequent and sufficient to support long term crop needs and boost runoff for winter water supply

o  
This is true for the  mainland areas as well as Philippines and a part of both Indonesia and Malaysia

• Mexico
  precipitation will continue frequent this week, but it will turn drier next week

o  
Most of this week’s rain will concentrate on western and southern parts of the nation while the northeast is dry biased.

o  
Rain next week will be limited a few showers in the west and more generalized rain in the far south

• North
  Africa showers over the next ten days will be brief and light
• Today’s
  Southern Oscillation Index was +10.38 and will likely vary erratically over the next several days
• New
  Zealand will include near to above normal rainfall in the next seven days in far northern and western crop areas in the nation

o  
Eastern portions of South Island will receive less than usual rainfall

o  
Temperatures will be near to below average

Source:
World Weather Inc. 

 

Bloomberg
Ag Calendar

Monday,
Sept. 20:

• USDA
  export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
• U.S.
  crop conditions – corn, cotton, soybeans; winter wheat planted, 4pm
• China’s
  third batch of country-wise August trade data, including soy, corn and pork imports
• Monthly
  MARS bulletin on crop conditions in Europe
• USDA
  total milk production, 3pm
• Ivory
  Coast cocoa arrivals
• Malaysia
  Sept. 1-20 palm oil exports
• HOLIDAY:
  China, Japan, Korea

Tuesday,
Sept. 21:

• EU
  weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
• New
  Zealand global dairy trade auction
• HOLIDAY:
  China, Korea

Wednesday,
Sept. 22:

• EIA
  weekly U.S. ethanol inventories, production
• U.S.
  cold storage data – pork, beef, poultry, 3pm
• HOLIDAY:
  Hong Kong, Korea

Thursday,
Sept. 23:

• USDA
  weekly crop net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork, beef, 8:30am
• Globoil
  India – international vegetable oil conference, day 1
• The
  UN Food Systems Summit
• USDA
  red meat production, 3pm
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• HOLIDAY:
  Japan

Friday,
Sept. 24:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report (6:30pm London)
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various U.S. futures and options, 3:30pm
• Globoil
  India – international vegetable oil conference, day 2
• FranceAgriMer
  weekly update on crop conditions
• U.S.
  cattle on feed, hogs and pigs inventory, poultry slaughter, 3pm

Saturday,
Sept. 25:

• Globoil
  India – international vegetable oil conference, day 3

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

USDA
inspections versus Reuters trade range                                                    

Wheat                 
563,390                 versus   350000-600000  range

Corn                     
403,104                 versus   150000-450000  range

Soybeans           
275,169                 versus   100000-400000  range

 

150,272
tons of soybeans, 207,019 tons of corn, and 66,427 tons of wheat were shipped out of the Gulf.  Soybean shipments out of the Mississippi River were not necessarily shutout earlier this month. USDA issued corrections of 74,766 tons of soybeans to China for
9/5 and 12,275 tons of soybeans to Mexico for 9/7.  Just seven boats were loaded for the week ending September 16, compared to 23 boats for the same week for the same week a year ago, according to a Reuters story. 

 

 

 

GRAINS
INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT

                 
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING SEP 16, 2021

                           
— METRIC TONS —

————————————————————————-

                                                  
CURRENT     PREVIOUS 

             ———–
WEEK ENDING ———-  MARKET YEAR  MARKET YEAR

 
GRAIN      09/16/2021  09/09/2021  09/17/2020    TO DATE     TO DATE  

 

BARLEY             
0           0           0        6,550        5,727 

CORN         
403,104     159,429     768,084      601,986    1,991,594 

FLAXSEED           
0           0           0           24          389 

MIXED              
0           0           0            0            0 

OATS               
0         100          48          200        1,196 

RYE                
0           0           0            0            0 

SORGHUM        
8,130       4,526      71,844       13,973      177,405 

SOYBEANS     
275,169     193,429   1,390,521      498,952    3,707,394 

SUNFLOWER          
0           0           0            0            0 

WHEAT        
563,390     567,438     503,034    7,713,880    8,664,655 

Total      
1,249,793     924,922   2,733,531    8,835,565   14,548,360 

————————————————————————-

CROP
MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND

FLAXSEED; 
SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.

INCLUDES
WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

 

Corn

·        
Corn traded lower for the third consecutive session on widespread commodity and equity selling.   

·        
Funds sold an estimated net 4,000 corn contracts. 

·        
RIN prices were under a good amount of pressure today.  Ethanol RIN’s were around $1.06, down from $1.25 earlier this month. 

·        
USDA US corn export inspections as of September 16, 2021 were 403,104 tons, within a range of trade expectations, above 159,429 tons previous week and compares to 768,084 tons year ago. Major countries included Mexico for 219,601
tons, China for 140,245 tons, and Japan for 32,273 tons.

·        
NOLA shipping concerns continue to weigh on prices.  We are hearing there are several barges still stranded after settling on land after the river swelled. 

·        
Look for US field yield reports this week to again vary.  Some are calling the US yield around 172-173 bu/ac but we are in the camp of near 177.  USDA September was 176.3.   

·        
China’s north and southwest portions of the corn belt will see heavy rains during the first half of the workweek, delaying harvesting progress. 

·        
China August imports of US corn were 2.93 million tons, 17 percent higher than the previous record in July.  Ukraine imports of corn fell 12% to 301,383 tons. 

·        
AgRural reported 22 percent of the summer corn crop planted as of Sep. 16. 

·        
Brazil may soon announce they plant to cut corn import taxes for 90 days.  

·        
Cattle on feed and the hogs & pigs reports will be released after the close on Friday. 

 

 

European
Union Crop Monitor:

-Corn
yield 7.78 tons per hectare, down from a projected yield of 7.90 t/ha in August.

-Spring
barley yield 4.23 tons per hectare, down from a projected yield of 4.30 t/ha in August.

 

Export
developments.

• None
  reported

 

 

Updated
9/14/21

December
corn is seen in a $4.75-$5.75 range

 

Soybeans

·        
November soybeans ended 21.50 cents lower at $12.62.50, a new short-term contract low.  Soybean oil was down 121 to 139 points.  Meal was $1.00-$2.50 lower. 

·        
Funds sold an estimated net 10,000 soybeans, 3,000 meal and 4,000 soybean oil. 

·        
USDA US soybean export inspections as of September 16, 2021 were 275,169 tons, within a range of trade expectations, above 193,429 tons previous week and compares to 1,390,521 tons year ago. Major countries included Mexico for
88,583 tons, Japan for 70,767 tons, and China for 67,798 tons.

·        
Malaysian palm oil futures hit a 2-week low on Monday, settling at 4,173 ringgit, off 88.  Cash palm fell $17.50/ton to $1,092.50/ton.

·        
Malaysia left its October crude palm oil export tax unchanged at 8%.  They raised their reference price of 4,472.46 ringgit ($1,068.18) per ton for October, up from 4,255.52 ringgit in September.

·        
AmSpec reported Malaysian September 1-20 palm oil exports at 1.089 million tons, well up from 788,211 tons (38.2%) during the same period in August.  ITS reported a 43.5 percent increase to 1.121 million tons. 

·        
China is on holiday through Tuesday, returning Wednesday. 

·        
China August soybean imports were down 1.2% from a year ago and the US share of Aug imports, of only 17,575 tons, fell to its lowest since November 2018 (Aug 2020 was 166,370 tons).  China imported 9.04 million tons of Brazil
soybeans in August, up from 8.15 million year earlier, a 10.9% increase. 

·        
AgRural reported less than one percent of the Brazil soybean crop planted as dry and warm conditions are keeping producers out of fields.  Producers are also cautious to avoid replanting due to very high input costs. 

·        
A S&P Global Platts survey sees India 2021-22 soybean production down 17 percent from 2020-21 to 10.8 million tons. Argentina soybean oil demand by India should remain strong in 2021-22. 

 

 

Export
Developments

• Egypt’s
  GASC seeks 30,000 tons of soyoil and 10,000 tons of sunflower oil on Wednesday for arrival Nov. 15-30 and/or Dec. 1-15. 
  

 

Updated
9/14/21

Soybeans
– November $11.75-$13.75 range, short term $12.70-$13.30. 

Soybean
meal – December $310-$385

Soybean
oil – December 53-62 cent range

 

Wheat

·        
Wheat prices traded lower led by the KC market (good planting weather).  Prices likely followed corn and soybean lower along with a higher USD.  Argentina’s wheat areas saw rain over the weekend bias La Pampa.  Southern Brazil
also picked up on rain. 

·        
Funds sold an estimated net 6,000 soft red winter wheat contracts. 

·        
USDA US all-wheat export inspections as of September 16, 2021 were 563,390 tons, within a range of trade expectations, below 567,438 tons previous week and compares to 503,034 tons year ago. Major countries included Mexico for
109,122 tons, Philippines for 86,606 tons, and Japan for 86,392 tons.

·        
The central US Great Plains will see favorable temperatures and dry conditions for hard red winter wheat planting progress this week. 

·        
Russian wheat export prices at the end of last week increased for the 10th consecutive week.  SovEcon reported a $1.50 increase to $304.50/ton from the previous week and IKAR reported a $1.00 rise to $301/ton for 12.5% protein
Black Sea wheat for early October shipment. 

·        
December Paris wheat was down 1.75 at 245.75 euros. 

·        
We lowered our US all-wheat production estimate to 1.682 billion from 1.706 billion, based on minor adjustments to the spring wheat planted area and upward revisions to abandonment for the other spring and durum area.  We took
down other spring wheat harvested area to 10.462 million acres from 11.215 million, and durum to 1.376 million from 1.444 million. Our spring wheat production is 322 million, down from 345 million previous and durum at 32 million from 34 million previous. 

·        
USDA is using 1.697 billion for all wheat, 343 million for spring and 35 million for durum. 

·        
Attached is our wheat production by class tables. 

 

Export
Developments. 

·        
Algeria seeks 50,000 tons of durum wheat on September 22 for November shipment. 

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of feed barley on September 23 for Dec. 16-31, Jan. 1-15, Jan. 16-31, and Feb. 1-14.

·        
Pakistan’s lowest offer for 500,000 tons of wheat was $383.50/ton c&f. 

·        
Turkey seeks 260,000 tons of feed barley on September 21 for October 8-October 31 shipment. 

·        
Mauritius seeks 47,000 tons of wheat flour, optional origin, on Sept. 21 for various 2022 shipment.

·        
Morocco seeks 363,000 tons of US wheat on September 21 for arrival by the end of the year. 

• Jordan
  seeks 120,000 tons of wheat on September 22 for LH December through FH February shipment. 
  
• Taiwan
  seeks 49,580 tons of US wheat on September 23 between November 6 and November 20. 
  

 

Rice/Other

·        
Bangladesh seeks 50,000 tons of rice on September 23. 

 

 

Updated
9/9/21

December
Chicago wheat is seen in a $6.50‐$7.80 range

December
KC wheat is seen in a $6.40‐$8.00

December
MN wheat is seen in a $8.45‐$9.50